Chris Ivory 2015 Schedule Outlook

The New York Jets have not been a very good team the last few years. A great run defense and marginal pass defense have been the best units on their team. Lacking talent on offense has been an issue. An unproven, and at times bad, quarterback and lack of depth at receiver have hamstrung the Jets offense. With a regime change and the addition of Brandon Marshall you might think that the passing game will get a better look. And it may. But with Todd Bowles installed as the head man and a hugely upgraded secondary, look for the jets to win by controlling the ball and shutting down the opponents offense.

Image source: nypost.com

Enter Chris Ivory.

Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets currently sits atop the depth chart. Over the last few seasons he has not been the most consistent of running backs, but its tough to be great when they know you are running and stack the box. Ivory only had 44% quality games last season using the consistency guide of Bob Lung. His late season run was pretty bad as teams realized that the Jets lacked a passing attack.

Over the last two seasons Ivory’s splits for both home vs road and rank of defense have not been great. His best category is against bad defenses at home, where he was a perfect four for four. At home against good defenses he was four of seven quality games, 57%. On the road overall he is only four of 15, 27%.

The schedule for the Jets this year is the seventh best schedule against run defenses.

With an average ranking of 18.31, the jets will only face four of the Top 10 run defenses from last season. To open the season Ivory and the Jets will not face a Top 10 run defense. In games six through 10,  the schedule gets much tougher. Three Top 11 run defenses await during this period. Weeks 11 to 13 have great match ups against teams that are no better than 24^th in run defense last season. The playoff run is difficult for Ivory and his Jets counterparts. The Week 14 game is in Ivory’s favor, facing the second worst run defense of last season in the Titans. After that it gets much more difficult. Week 15 sees the Jets travel to the eighth ranked run defense of the Cowboys. The Week 16 match up doesn’t get much easier, facing the ninth ranked run defense of the Patriots. If your league plays through week 17 you won’t find a reprieve either. The 11^th ranked Bills will host the Jets in the finale.

Ivory is not historically a big pass catcher out of the backfield.

Having a career high 18 receptions on 27 targets in 2014 means that in a PPR league you will not get many extra points from his activity in the passing game. Ivory also must win the job during training camp. The Jets signed Stevan Ridley and traded for Zac Stacy in the off season. This isn’t Ivory’s job without earning it. The good news is that if one of the other guys in the competition wins the job, my advice will be the same.

Ivory, or the winner of the competition, is at best a RB2 or a flex. If you draft them, look to trade them after four or five weeks for a player that has a better looking second half or playoff schedule. He is a player you could platoon throughout the season based on match ups. Ivory is currently RB 44 at 106^th overall pick in the ADP on fantasypros.com. As late round depth that has potential trade value, Ivory is a target of mine in round nine to ten.