Start Sit Week 4

Image Source: foxsports.com

Welcome in once again to another start sit column. I'm writing this after having watched the abomination that was another Thursday night football game. The offense in these games is painful to watch. It is a marginal product at its best, and is not safe for the players. But the money will keep them coming back. I digress.
So for the fourth week of the season there are some great match-ups, and some not so good. This is, as always what we strive to unearth every week. So let us take a look at the players who we should start and sit this week.

Start

Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets
Ivory was active last week for the Jets, but did not get a touch. This week Ivory has said that he feels much better than last week, and he has been participating in practice. The Jets play in the London game this week, and will kick off at 9:30 am eastern. This will require you to make an early decision on him, but as long as he is active, I would start him. The Dolphins defense has been a huge disappointment so far this season. Allowing 145 yards per game on the ground so far this season, Miami is like a matador to opposing running backs. Ole, and start Ivory.

All the Bears and Raiders
Obviously this is meant for the top tier starters for these teams. I would include in this Amari Cooper, Alshon Jeffery, Latavius Murray, Matt Forte, and of course Martellus Bennett. With Gronk out, many fantasy analysts have Bennett as the top tight end this week. The Raiders can't stop the tight end. This is evidenced by them allowing a career day to Gary Barnidge last week, which in turn allowed me to win a bet where I now get to kick the loser in the face. Defense will not be at a premium in this game, and I would start all my players in this game with confidence.

Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
Foster has been out since the preseason with a groin injury. It has become possible that he will get into the action this week for the Texans. If Foster is active, he is a must start in my opinion. Foster usually will not come back from an injury unless he is ready to go. Houston will face the Atlanta Falcons this week. The Falcons are middle of the pack in yards allowed on the ground, but they have given up six rushing scores through three weeks. If you drafted Foster this year you have been waiting for him to come back. Bask in his glow while you can.

Karlos Williams, RB, Buffalo Bills
Williams has been a very bright spot for the Bills so far this season. So far on the season Williams is averaging 62 yards per game on the ground, but he has also scored a touchdown every week so far. The Giants are actually the second ranked run defense by yards allowed, but I believe that is a bit of fools gold. The Bills are a good run blocking unit. I expect the rookie to have a solid week.

Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers
Gordon has had positive and negative press in the Fantasy community so far this season. He has not been able to pass block, and a lot of his role has been taken by Danny Woodhead. This week the Chargers and Gordon take aim at the worst run defense in the league, both this year and last. The Browns have allowed 158 yards per game so far this season. I expect Gordon to be able to gash them, and hopefully get himself a nice long score. Gordon should be a solid RB2 or flex play for your squad this week.


Sit

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Bucs
Martin has opened the season with three great match ups this season. The problem is that he has looked every bit of the Martin we saw over the last two years. Martin has been unable to take advantage of his beneficial schedule early this season. This week Martin squares off against the fourth ranked by yards run defense of the Carolina Panthers. Carolina is only allowing 75.7 yards per game. The offensive line of the Bucs is not very good either. This seems to be the perfect storm to keep Martin's numbers down this week.

Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins
I have lost my faith in Miller and the Dolphins. Miller has been abysmal so far this season, and the Dolphins have been under-performing on both sides of the ball. The Jets have a good defense, even though they are middle of the pack in yards allowed per week. The Dolphins have not blocked well, passed well, and definitely haven't run well. I am not interested in starting any piece of their offense outside of Jarvis Landry, and that is only because of volume in a PPR.

Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Hyde looked amazing on the first Monday night of the season. Then he got banged up during Week 2. And in Week 3, the box was stacked. The rest of the league knows that Colin Kaepernick is not a good quarterback. They are willing to stack the box and let Kaep throw and force him to beat them. You can expect this to remain the case for the rest of the season. This week against Green Bay I expect the same, and with coverage for the Packers being pretty good, they can afford to push forward and force the issue.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Bucs
Evans has been out or a decoy in two of three games this season. So how can I tell you to sit him? Josh Norman. The corner for the Panthers has been making his case to be the next shutdown corner in the NFL, and he is making it well. With a rookie quarterback in Jameis Winston, and facing off against one of the better defensive units in the league, I am thinking that I will take my chances with whoever I was playing while he was out.

Defenses to stream

Green Bay Packers are a solid streaming choice this week. The 49ers almost fooled us in Week 1. But their true colors have shined through since. I expect a solid game from the Packers, and even though the game is in San Francisco, I am starting the Packers defense this week.

San Diego Chargers face off against the Cleveland Browns. Possessing a good secondary will help to control Travis Benjamin. The Browns have been a bad running unit and I can't see this changing much this week. I think the Chargers at home this week are a good option for a defensive streamer.

Quarterbacks to stream

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, New York Jets is facing off against the middle of the road pass defense of the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have allowed six passing touchdowns on the season. If Fitzpatrick has all of his weapons back, he is a solid streaming option this week.

Brandon Weeden, QB, Dallas Cowboys faces off against a New Orleans Saints defense that has allowed six touchdowns on the season. The Saints have not intercepted a pass on the season, a good thing for a quarterback that is a backup. With another week under his belt, and a chance to get more comfortable with his abilities and limitations, I can see using Weeden for an emergency fill in this week.

We reach the end of another start sit for Week 4. It's crazy to think that we are already in the fourth week of the season. It's going so fast. All the buildup of the off-season and drafting has come down to this. Take this information and use it for good this week. Good luck!

Waiver Wire For Week 3:

The first two weeks of the NFL season have been brutal to the ranks of Fantasy Football. Dez Bryant, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Eddie Lacy, Eric Decker, the list goes on. So many of your Fantasy relevant players have gotten hurt. So what are you to do? Hit the wire. Fill those rosters with players that might help you win. Let's find some of those guys together.



It's all about the Benjamins

Travis Benjamin, WR, Cleveland has had a pretty good start to the season scoring 4 times in the first two weeks. Two long receiving touchdowns on Sunday and a punt return  74 yards for a score. Benjamin is a stash and wait kind of player for me. I find him much more desirable in leagues that give points for return yardage. His value may be tied to the ability of Johnny Manziel keeping the starting job. I am not ready to start him, but I could see him on my roster if I need a big upside player.

Starks me up

James Starks, RB, Green Bay has the chance this week to take over the running load in the Green Bay offense. With Eddie Lacy banged up with an ankle injury in week two, Starks came on strong to help the Packers take down the Seahawks. If Lacy remains out his week, Starks steps right into the job with a high ability to succeed.

Jonesin'

Matt Jones, RB, Washington has proven his ability in the Washington run game. Jones had 19 carries for 123 yards and two scores, plus three catches for 23 yards. Jones has wedged his way into the run game for Washington, and I am not expecting that to change anytime soon. Washington will be perfectly happy to have an effective tandem at running back and try to win with defense and clock control. Grab some Matt Jones.

What you Snead

Willie Snead, WR, New Orleans had a lot of buzz during the preseason. Snead hit last week for the Saints, Willie caught four passes for 44 yards and a score in week two. In week one Snead only had one catch for 63 yards, so he may be inconsistent. But the New Orleans offense must try something new. At 0-2 and now possibly without Drew Brees this week, something has to change in the Saints offense. Snead just might be the benefactor of this.

Mr. Rodgers neighborhood

Richard Rodgers, TE, Green Bay was my secret weapon in some of my leagues this season. Once Jordy Nelson went down with a torn ACL, the Packers were going to need some help in the red zone. The reason he was my secret weapon? Well I crunched the numbers from last year and found that Green Bay had the third best schedule for points allowed to tight ends. The only issue was they don't usually use a tight end. Well, Nelson out helped him with that. Last week Rodgers caught both a touchdown pass, and a two point conversion en route to a 3-23-1 night. Not a huge evening, but he was also targeted again for a deep pass and another time in the end zone. So now my secret is out, and you can benefit.

Neon Dion

Dion Lewis, RB, New England has been a monster the first two games of the season. Through the first two weeks of the season Lewis has 22 rushes for 109 yards and a score, and has 10 catches for 149 yards. The bad news is that he has a fumbling issue. The good news, he has still gotten in the game. As hard as it is to trust a Patriots running back, he hasn't come off the field after the fumbles, and Brady has talked him up. If he is still available in your leagues, add him to your roster.

Quarterbacks to stream Week 3

Ryan Fitzpatrick plays at home against the defensively hapless Eagles.
Marcus Mariota plays at home against the Colts. Indy is down corners on defense, and if they don't get them back it could be a great day for Mariota.
Nick Foles plays at home against the Steelers. Not sure who he is throwing to, but the Steelers won't stop it.

Defenses to stream Week 3

Cincinnati Bengals head into Baltimore. The Baltimore offense is no great shakes this year, and I wouldn't expect a ton from them.
Cleveland Browns host the Oakland Raiders. Cleveland has decent corner play and a front line that should start to gel soon. The Raiders just aren't good, yet. They seem to be heading in the right direction, but have a ways to go.

Week Two Start Sit

Well it has been a slow few weeks as real life has caught up with me. Lots of busy things happening. Drafts were amazing. Had a great time, and have some great teams. I hope the same has befallen you as well. So now we have a full week in the bank. It’s time to look at the best plays and worst plays we find this week. So let’s take a look at this week’s start/sit.

Start

John Brown, WR, Arizona is facing his second good match up in a row. After performing fairly well in Week One, with four catches on seven targets for 46 yards and a touchdown, Brown is once again a guy I am sliding into my flex positions this week.  Facing the Chicago Bears in Week Two, Brown finds a favorable situation ahead. The Bears gave up three touchdowns through the air last week. In the 2014 season the Bears were 30^th in passing yards allowed for the season. I expect the issues with the Bears passing defense to continue this week. Get Brown in your lineup.

Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona is leading the attack again this week for the Cardinals. Palmer had a superb opening game to the season, throwing for 307 yards and 3 scores. Palmer is a good enough quarterback to take advantage of a defense that is weak in the passing game. Expect him to do more of the same this week. If you are lucky and planned the start of your season, you can stack Palmer and Brown this week and double your pleasure. Palmer is a great start for you this week.

Bishop Sankey, RB, Tennessee is a surprise addition to this list. I never thought I'd say that after the 2014 season, and the tumultuous offseason at the running back position in Tennessee. Sankey had a fantastic performance in the new and seemingly improved offense of the Titans. Rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota was fantastic in his NFL debut last week, and Sankey was also impressive. This week Sankey and the Titans will face off against the hapless Cleveland Browns. Last season the Browns gave up the most yards per game on the ground. The Browns picked up right where they left off allowing 154 yards in their first game of the season. If you see Sankey hanging out on your waiver wire and are in need of a running back this week, snatch him up and get him in your lineup.

Steve Smith Sr, WR, Baltimore squares off against the not improved defense of the Oakland raiders. The Ravens faced the Broncos in a clash of good defensive units last week. This week, the Ravens offense will have a much better time of it. The Raiders gave up 270 yards and 2 passing touchdowns last week to the Cincinnati Bengals. This bodes well for the likes of Smith Sr. Look for him to atone for dropping a touchdown last week. Get Smith Sr. in your lineups.

Eric Decker, WR, New York Jets is a great second receiver for an NFL team. The good news about that is he will likely not get the top corner coverage a lot this year now that the Jets have a number one guy. This week the Jets face the sub-par defense of the Indianapolis Colts. The colts didn’t give up a huge amount of passing yards in the first week of the season, but they did give up a long score to Percy Harvin. Expect that the top corner, Vontae Davis, will be on Brandon Marshall. This leads me to believe that Decker is primed to have himself a solid game. Start him if you got him.

Sit

LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots was suspended for the first week of the season so we haven’t seen him on the field yet in regular season action. His first game back is against the stout defense of the Buffalo Bills. The narrative being bounced around twitter and the podcast circuit is that the Patriots will attack the Bills defense with short passing. This seems to make sense with some of the personnel the Pats feature. If this is in fact what Bill Belichick does with his game plan, this doesn’t play well for Blount. Blount is not the best pass catching back the pats have. Along with the possible bad game plan for Blount, Buffalo is very good against the run. The Bills allowed just over 100 yards on the ground per game last season, and in their first game of this season they held the Colts to 64 rushing yards. I’m sitting Blount this week.

Andre Johnson, WR, Indianapolis Colts looked like an old, washed up man last week against the Bills. This week assuming he gets the top corner his opponent has if TY Hilton is out, we will welcome Johnson to Revis Island. I can’t imagine any situation where Revis has two functioning legs and can’t shut down Johnson. The best hope for him is if Donte Moncrief torches the Jets on a few plays and they shift the coverage to Moncrief instead. But this assumes that Johnson is ready for the challenge and steps up to it. I am not looking to take that chance myself and would sit Andre Johnson this week.

Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders had a decent game for one where his team was never even close to competitive. The good news is he got seven catches in the game last week. This week Murray and the Raiders face the stiff Baltimore Ravens defense. Baltimore only gave up 69 yards rushing last week against the Broncos. This might seem like it is due to the mess that has been the Broncos offensive line, but they were stout last year as well. In the 2014 campaign the Ravens only allowed 88 yards rushing per game and eight touchdowns on the season. This makes me want to put Murray on my bench this week.

TJ Yeldon, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars had 51 rushing yards in his first NFL start. The positives about this are that he got four yards per carry, and that he also caught three passes. This was a game against Carolina, a usually strong defense, but they were missing Star Lotulelei in the middle of that defensive line. This week doesn’t get any easier than last week, squaring off against the Miami Dolphins and their scary defense. The Dolphins did give up a lot of yards in game one of the season, but that was against an actually decent run blocking line of Washington. The Jags line is not that good. I don’t see good things for Yeldon this week and am sitting him in the leagues I own him in.

Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts squares off against the New York Jets this week. Another team with a strong defensive line, the Jets only allowed 104 yards last week to the Browns, but 58 of those yards were given up to the quarterbacks of the browns. That means that the running backs only gained 46 yards. Gore looked old, and actually left the game with cramps. Gore had 8 carries for 31 yards and 2 catches last week. I am not feeling too good about his chances this week and would bench him for a better option.

It feels good to be back. The first week of the season was amazing. Happy to bring you some advice and insights into who to start and sit in your leagues. Check back for more articles in the near future and read some of my other work at socalledfantasyexperts.com and fakepigskin.com. Thanks for reading and good luck in week two!

Jonathan Stewart 2015 Outlook

Jonathan Stewart is entering his eighth season in the NFL in 2015. Spending most of his career thus far sharing a backfield with DeAngelo Williams has really hurt Stewart’s ability to score for Fantasy. Along with the crowded backfield, injuries have sidelined Stewart for 22 games in his career. So why would you want to draft a guy that has this history? Let’s take a look at what lies ahead for him this season.

Image source: tireball.com

Stewart hasn’t been as consistent as you might like to see from a running back. Over his last three seasons Stewart has only scored a quality game in nine of 28 games according to Bob Lung’s consistency guide. Looking at the breakdowns by defense level, Stewart is consistently inconsistent. The best category for consistency broken down by defense for Stewart is at home against good defenses, scoring two of four quality games. Taking into account all other defensive rankings together you get an average of 29% quality games. This does not bode well for the chances for Stewart. Most of this second category of quality games was against the bad and middle of the road defenses that should allow for more scoring to a running back.

Taking a look at the schedule for the Carolina Panthers this season has a bit of good news to it. The Panthers will be facing the second best schedule of run defenses from 2014 rankings. The average rank of the run defenses they will face this season is 19.68. The Panthers will have the luxury of only facing off against three Top 10 run defenses from a season ago. The season opens with a soft landing at Jacksonville. The Texans in Week Two present a more difficult challenge. After that the following two games against the Saints and Bucs will be good match ups. Then a rough match up against the Seahawks leads to a cleaner finish to the season.

The playoff run for the Panthers looks pretty good. Week 14 sees the Falcons coming to town. Week 15 sees Carolina traveling to the already banged up Giants. Week 16 sees the Panthers playing the Falcons for the second time in three weeks. Even though you can expect the Falcons to play tougher than last season under new coach Dan Quinn, they were the 21^st ranked run defense last year, and huge overnight change is unlikely. Finally if you play through week 17, the Buccaneers and their 19^th ranked pass defense last season come to Carolina.

Stewart has an ADP that puts him at the end of the fourth round overall. Going at 47^th, his price puts him in the RB2 or RB3 category. In his same area of the ADP you can find players that I would both be more comfortable with, and some that I would be less comfortable with. Andre Ellington is at 49^th in ADP right behind Stewart. I would probably take Ellington over Stewart myself. On the flip side of that coin, Todd Gurley is going at the 46^th pick in ADP, and I would rather have both Stewart and Ellington over Gurley in a redraft league. If you are picking in this area there are a few other players for positions other than running back that I would take over Stewart here.

Another consideration that you must have is the fact that Stewart will have a hard time getting red zone touches. Not only is Cam Newton a touchdown vulture up close, but the Panthers have a history of using Mike Tolbert when they get in close. On top of those two taking away red zone touches, the Panthers have taken on the basketball team mentality for their wide receivers. Now having two very tall receivers, and Greg Olsen who is also tall, the red zone is a crowded place for Carolina.

One thing to note for sure is that if you take Jonathan Stewart for your 2015 Fantasy team, you need to grab Cameron Artis-Payne as a backup. With Stewart being the poster child for getting injured over his career, his back up is an important asset. The schedule is so good that the next man up might have a shot at relevance as well.

Earlier this offseason I was all aboard the Stewart train. As we get closer to the season, and I take a closer look at both where his ADP is settling in at, and his overall situation, I have a hard time finding myself wanting to take Stewart on my team this season. If available I would rather take another running back or wide out at the same spot and wait for a Giovanni Bernard type in round five.

Mocking the first overall pick in a 12 team PPR draft

The first overall pick has been something that I have an amazingly large amount of experience with getting in my randomly selected fantasy drafts. I get it a lot. I hate it. I hate having one pick in the first 23. The stress and pressure of who to take, and not wanting to pick the guy who is going to bust, there's always one, is not something I want to deal with. But someone has to have the top pick. So let's take a look at the scenario I used from my mock draft on the fantasypros.com mock draft simulator.

I have put a fair amount of time into my strategy of who I would take at number one.

I looked at the four usual suspects and many aspects of their pros and cons in an article I wrote on socalledfantasyexperts.com. As I discussed in that article, the LeVeon Bell suspension makes me not want to take him. I don’t like the situation for Jamaal Charles, and Eddie Lacy has a heck of a tough schedule in my opinion this season. So this left me at Adrian Peterson. So for the purposes of this mock draft I took Peterson to line up with my pick.

Now since then I have had a monumental shift in my thought process on my favorite back this year. I am willing to take a gamble on a guy that I believe has all of the things I value for a top running back. With the fifth easiest schedule of run defenses from last year, a much tougher pass defense schedule, a new regime that likes to run and uses a bell cow running back, I am willing to gamble on CJ Anderson to be the top running back for the 2015 season. Give me the first pick in a real draft, or redoing this mock, and I take him every time.

So now that I’m off my soapbox, we can resume a look at this mock draft I did. At pick 24 there is surprisingly no quarterbacks off the board. The best running backs available are Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, and Andre Ellington. The best wide receivers available are Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, TY Hilton, and Brandin Cooks. Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce are both still available, but this is way too early for me for them. I have pretty much fallen in love with Mike Evans this year.

His situation is great.

He has a quarterback that is willing to toss the ball up. He is very tall. His schedule is extremely favorable for passing. And last but not least, he was amazing with no talent at the quarterback position last year. I can’t think of a guy I want more on this board, so Evans is my guy.

Pick 25 in this mock is the spot that is a little weird for me.

I don’t hate taking Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck, I prefer Luck. If you like Graham and want him, this is your spot, he won’t be available at the next pick. It is likely that the top 20 running backs and receivers will be picked clean the next time through, so you need to make your pick here based on that info. I am a believer that your second running back can be cobbled together from round four, five, or six picks. So we already have a top running back and a top receiver on our roster. Because this is a PPR league I want to take a good volume receiver. I like Brandin Cooks of the receivers left on the board. Cooks was on pace for a high volume last year, and this year there are more targets to spread around from missing components from last season.

At the end of the fourth round we find that

much to our good fortune Alfred Morris and Latavius Murray have fallen to us. There is only one Top 20 wide receiver left on the board in Keenan Allen. Peyton Manning is the best quarterback left, as Luck, Rodgers, and Russell Wilson are all off the board. Drew Brees is also available in this spot. I like to stack a quarterback and a receiver, and if we didn’t need some running backs for this team I would probably take one of the quarterbacks, and lean toward Brees. But alas, we have found that two of the Top 20 running backs have fallen to us, so it makes our 48^th and 49^th overall picks pretty simple ones. Alfred and Latavius, welcome aboard.

When the end of the sixth round finds us,

there are now seven quarterbacks off the board. Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, and Ryan Tannehill are the best four on the board. Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen are gone. The best tight end left is Martellus Bennett. At running back LeGarrette Blount has found his way to this spot in the draft. He is joined by Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen, and Joique Bell. At wide receiver we find Eric Decker, Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Mike Wallace on the board.

I had a very hard time making a decision at this spot.

I sat with my finger over the mouse ready to click draft on Blount, but I just couldn’t do it. I hate having Patriots running backs on my team. I decided to go ahead and select Eric Decker, who I wrote about as a late round sleeper. Decker is a target of mine in middle rounds, and oddly this week I think his stock rose with Geno Smith being out and Ryan Fitzpatrick taking over as the starter.

With the 73^rd pick I decided to take a quarterback.

Of the players left I have two players to pick from. Either I am taking Matt Ryan, or I am taking Eli Manning. I like both of these players for the 2015 season, in fact writingabout Eli earlier this off season. The schedules for both teams are good for passing, they won’t face the best of passing defenses from last year. For me it comes down to preference and the rest of the situation. The Falcons have two proven wide receivers. Julio Jones and Roddy White are both players I wrote about this season. They have a history of being great players. The Giants have Odell Beckham Jr. who was phenomenal last year, but is a second year guy and not proven yet. Along with Odell we have Victor Cruz who is returning from a torn patellar tendon. This is not an easy injury to return from, and even with all reports pointing to good things, nobody knows how Cruz will play this year. When you consider these factors, Matt Ryan is my guy.

During round seven there was a run on tight ends.

In round eight a run on running backs goes down. I find the same wide receivers that were available previously and some tight ends I am not interested in at this spot in the draft. Time for the trick play that I have been hearing about on many podcasts and reading about on twitter a lot. Arian Foster is sitting there. At the end of round eight you should already have a good slate of starters. Our team here is only missing a tight end, but with the top 11 off the board, we aren’t in a rush anymore. So Foster is the perfect lottery ticket at the end of the eighth. With incomplete information about his injury and the timeline currently, Foster might find himself back by the second week of the season. If you get him at any point near then for the rest of the season, you can assume you should be the gold standard of your league.

The next pick is a little more difficult for me.

I only have three wide receivers on my squad so far. I am usually a fan of loading up on receivers, but there is still some great running back talent on the board. Isaiah Crowell is on the board, and if he is the guy who is starting in Cleveland, it’s a great spot for him. They are a bad team, which has a great offensive line, and will win by running and playing defense. Devonta Freeman is still on the board. If he can get healthy and stay that way, he has the chance to be the starting back in Atlanta. Reggie Bush is on the board, and as I wrote here, Bush can be a great value play in PPR leagues. I decided to take Crowell here, gambling that he is eventually going to win this job. I would be okay with any of these backs, but would take them in the following order: Crowell, Freeman, Bush as it stands today. With all of the running back talent I have, if one of the later round guys I drafted hits, or if Foster comes back quickly, I could trade a running back to upgrade my wide receiver corps.

As we hit the end of Round 10, we find a lot of wide receivers on the board.

Since our last pick only one came off the board. We need a receiver and a tight end. The running backs on the board don’t make me want to draft them, especially since this team is stocked well. Kyle Rudolph is going to be our guy here. Minnesota faces the fourth best schedule for tight ends based on Fantasy points allowed to tight ends. With Teddy Bridgewater in his second year, and performing well at the end of last season, if Rudolph can stay healthy, he is set up well for this season.

Our next pick needs to be a wide receiver. We lack depth there and need to find a value guy with a high ceiling. I want to take a guy that has a lot of upside. The receivers available are Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson, Marques Colston, and Nelson Agholor. I decided to take Agholor here. If he is ready to play this season, the volume he will see in the Philadelphia offense will make him a great value for the 11^th round.

We have now found the point in the draft where I am snatching up my value wide receivers.

I find Pierre Garcon sitting there at the end of round 12. As I wrote in my late round PPR values article, I love Garcon this year. If Robert Griffin III can get it together this year, I think Garcon can be a huge value. If you have been reading the rest of my mock draft articles, the 11 pick, and the 12 pick, you will notice that I like to take Garcon late. I’m hitching my wagon to him this year.

I grab John Brown with my pick at the start of Round 13. I like Brown over Floyd currently seeing as he didn’t just have surgery to repair a compound dislocation. I like to err on the side of the guy who has skills and didn’t just have hand surgery.

I take Stephen Gostkowski and the Ravens defense in rounds 14 and round 15. I took the top kicker and the defenses were decimated by the time I made my pick. I would likely stream a defense for the year based on the matchups.

So my strategy from the one hole was different than it was from the late first round spots. I was able to amass a huge amount of starting running back talent, and still have a few great wide receivers. I feel that this team ended up pretty balanced, and has the chance to have great expendable parts to possibly use to trade up to improve some positions later.

Mocking the 12 pick in a 12 team PPR league

My favorite spots to draft in are the late first round picks. The sandwich picks, as they are sometimes called, allow you to both close and open a round. You get to take a look at what your opponents have and need. Then you get to take two players that fit either your needs or desires. In the front end of the draft, you get two of the top 13 players in a 12 team league. So let’s take a look at the who’s and why’s of my mock draft from pick 12. Note that this draft was done prior to the injury to Arian Foster.

So at the end of the first round the top six running backs have come off the board.

Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are also gone. I am a big proponent this season of taking a running back in round one as long as you get one of the top tier running backs. In this particular draft I had taken Arian Foster, but as I wrote on socalledfantasyexperts.com, I would now substitute that pick with CJ Anderson. Anderson is the end of my first tier of running backs, and has a big opportunity in front of him.

With my second pick in this sandwich, I look to Julio Jones.

As I wrote about him awhile back, I absolutely love Jones this year. The schedule for Atlanta is primed for him to have a huge season. The team will likely have a better defense, but won’t likely be a big jump this year. This leads me to thinking that they will still be involved in shootouts. Shootouts are a great thing for a player like Jones. So now after my second pick I have a top level running back, and the wide receiver I like the most for 2015.

When my pick comes up at the end of round three I am now thinking about taking another top level wide receiver and maybe a good second running back. After my fourth round pick in that scenario, I would already have a solid core of starters that I will be likely to plug and play for the whole season. This strategy leaves you in a good situation to fill in the rest of your starters, or add bench depth in case of injuries or for bye weeks.

So at the end of round three my pick wend Mark Ingram.

Ingram is in a good situation. He is the definite running downs back. His team traded away more than one receiving option, and added a Pro Bowl run blocking center. This all bodes well for the lead back in the New Orleans offense. This will fill out my starting running backs for the greater part of the season, barring injury.

My fourth round pick is a guy that I find myself drafting a lot

at the late third and early fourth round slots. Oddly he is a teammate of my third round pick. Brandin Cooks was the player I decided to snatch up with the first pick of the fourth. Cooks had an interesting ride last year. His usage was quizzical early in the season, and then with a slight shift to usage, he was on pace for monster rookie year numbers. Injury cut his rookie season short. It was obvious this offseason that there is a shift coming in the offense. The run is likely to be more important to the offense of the Saints, but they will still have to pass. The defense is not good. They will have a hard time stopping anyone. And that will lead to passing if they fail to control the clock and get a stop. Cooks in a PPR league should be a solid play, amassing a lot of catches, and possessing the skills to do great things with the ball. As my second wide receiver, I am a very happy man.

When the draft comes back to me again at pick 60 overall,

I find a great value still on the board at running back. Jonathan Stewart is hanging around. This is an unbelievable value. Stewart is a Top 20 running back, and he is sitting at pick 60. With DeAngelo Williams no longer clogging the backfield in Carolina, Stewart only needs to stay healthy to be a productive member of your team. There is no way that I could let Stewart pass at this spot, so welcome aboard.

The first pick of the sixth round is an interesting one.

There are a lot of choices left on the board that would fit well on this squad. Latavius Murray, TJ Yeldon are running backs on board. Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are still there. Wilson might be a great pick at 6.01, but I was waiting on a quarterback in this league. Travis Kelce is there, but I know I am not a believer in Alex Smith, so Kelce is out for me. I decided to take Yeldon in this spot. Reports out of Jags camp is that Yeldon has picked up the offense very quickly. He has been talked about as a three down back. This is something I am interested in taking a shot on. A new three down back in the league. Sign me up.

During the rest of the sixth and seventh rounds before my next pick comes up there is a run on quarterbacks. 

When my pick at 84 overall comes up

the best quarterback on the board is Eli Manning. I am still waiting on quarterback. I want to see what I get if I wait really late. The best available players left are Latavius, Todd Gurley, Joique Bell, Rashad Jennings, Eric Decker. I can’t pass up Latavius Murray at this point. I think Gurley is a decent selection, but just today as I am writing this article news hit that Gurley will likely miss the first few games. So Murray is a better choice here in my opinion. Last year he flashed moments of brilliance. Murray gives me four starting running backs to choose from week to week.

So all the previously listed players are still available. With a decent amount of depth at the running back position this team needs to add a wide receiver. Eric Decker is the best on the board at this point in the draft. I am bullish on Decker this year, as I wrote earlier this season. Decker has a good situation, and I honestly believe it got better with Ryan Fitzpartick as the quarterback this year. Decker is a good receiver, in a team that made some great moves this off season, and is headed in the right direction. Decker fills in some much needed depth at the wide out spot.

At the end of round 9, 108 overall

this team has needs at tight end, quarterback, and wide receiver depth. The best receivers available are Brandon LaFell, Steve Smith, Michael Floyd, Anquan Boldin, Mike Wallace. The best tight end on the board is Delanie Walker, but I am not a fan this season. The best quarterbacks available are Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady. I want to let quarterback go one more time and see what is left. This is after all a mock draft, the place to try things out.

With those facts in mind, I decided that I need to add some more wide receiver depth to this team. My favorite targets on this list are by far Anquan Boldin and Michael Floyd. Boldin is the best wide receiver in San Francisco, and the offseason action is pointing to a complete mess being what the team looks like this season. I find it likely they will be trailing a lot, leading to a lot of passing, hopefully to Boldin. Michael Floyd is a slight gamble. Having just had surgery for a compound dislocation, Floyd’s price is dropping. If his fingers are healed, and Carson Palmer can stay healthy this season, Floyd might be able to be a productive member of your fantasy roster this year. Expect a maximum effort from Floyd this year, as the size of his paycheck next year depends on it.

Coming back around in the 11^th round 

we find that LaFell, Wallace, and Smith are still on the board. Torrey Smith and Marques Colston and Kendall Wright are available as well. I am not a fan of any of those wide receivers this year except Colston. The only issue I have with Colston is that I already have Brandin Cooks. I am not usually in the market for two wide receivers from the same team so I will pass on Colston.

In the past round there was another run on quarterback and there isn’t much left at tight end. I deided to take one more wide receiver. That guy is Pierre Garcon. I love Garcon in the end of round 11.  As I wrote about him earlier, I believe that Garcon is set up for a good season. The schedule is great for Washington, and if Robert Griffin III can figure it out, Garcon was a PPR monster with him in his rookie season.

So with the first pick in round 12, I suppose it’s time to find my quarterback. 

I have tried this strategy a few times in mock drafts this year. I am generally pleased with the quarterbacks that are left behind. If you look at the points that separated Ben Roethlisberger, the fifth ranked quarterback on ESPN standard leagues, and the 17^th ranked quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, was a total of 61 points on the whole season. That is a difference of 3.8 points per game over the whole season. You will likely recoup those points with the added value you got from players you didn’t take earlier in the draft. And if my quarterback falters, I can just stream from the leftovers and likely be just fine.

With my 13^th and 14^th round picks I am getting a jump on the competition

and taking the top kicker and the defense that I want. There are obviously some defenses that are already off the board, but I am in love with the potential of the Jets defense this season. They already had a strong front on defense. Then they upgraded the secondary with one of the best shutdown corners and a solid counterpart on the other side. I love the Jets this season and want to get them in every draft I can.

For kicker, I like to get Gostkowski at the top of round 14. At this point I only need to add a tight end, and am going to stream that position. So I like to take the top kicker. Gostkowski is a good kicker year in and year out. If he isn’t available I favor either kickers that are indoors, or the kicker in Denver. Honestly most of the time I end up dropping my kickers anyways to make room to hold a waiver wire guy for a week.

With my last pick in this draft I selected Charles Clay. He signed a big contract this past offseason, and is likely to get some usage in the offense this season. Clay will be the outlet and often a hot route for the myriad of mess that is the quarterback situation in Buffalo. If I don’t like what action Clay is getting, I would probably stream a guy that is available on waivers.

So ends our look at the number 12 overall pick. I love these sandwich picks for the ability to take two players in a row. This allows you to look at what is available and what your opponents need in the next rounds and make an informed decision. Also you end up getting two of the top 13 picks, which is not a bad thing either. Check back for the next draft position, the first overall pick.

Chris Ivory 2015 Schedule Outlook

The New York Jets have not been a very good team the last few years. A great run defense and marginal pass defense have been the best units on their team. Lacking talent on offense has been an issue. An unproven, and at times bad, quarterback and lack of depth at receiver have hamstrung the Jets offense. With a regime change and the addition of Brandon Marshall you might think that the passing game will get a better look. And it may. But with Todd Bowles installed as the head man and a hugely upgraded secondary, look for the jets to win by controlling the ball and shutting down the opponents offense.

Image source: nypost.com

Enter Chris Ivory.

Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets currently sits atop the depth chart. Over the last few seasons he has not been the most consistent of running backs, but its tough to be great when they know you are running and stack the box. Ivory only had 44% quality games last season using the consistency guide of Bob Lung. His late season run was pretty bad as teams realized that the Jets lacked a passing attack.

Over the last two seasons Ivory’s splits for both home vs road and rank of defense have not been great. His best category is against bad defenses at home, where he was a perfect four for four. At home against good defenses he was four of seven quality games, 57%. On the road overall he is only four of 15, 27%.

The schedule for the Jets this year is the seventh best schedule against run defenses.

With an average ranking of 18.31, the jets will only face four of the Top 10 run defenses from last season. To open the season Ivory and the Jets will not face a Top 10 run defense. In games six through 10,  the schedule gets much tougher. Three Top 11 run defenses await during this period. Weeks 11 to 13 have great match ups against teams that are no better than 24^th in run defense last season. The playoff run is difficult for Ivory and his Jets counterparts. The Week 14 game is in Ivory’s favor, facing the second worst run defense of last season in the Titans. After that it gets much more difficult. Week 15 sees the Jets travel to the eighth ranked run defense of the Cowboys. The Week 16 match up doesn’t get much easier, facing the ninth ranked run defense of the Patriots. If your league plays through week 17 you won’t find a reprieve either. The 11^th ranked Bills will host the Jets in the finale.

Ivory is not historically a big pass catcher out of the backfield.

Having a career high 18 receptions on 27 targets in 2014 means that in a PPR league you will not get many extra points from his activity in the passing game. Ivory also must win the job during training camp. The Jets signed Stevan Ridley and traded for Zac Stacy in the off season. This isn’t Ivory’s job without earning it. The good news is that if one of the other guys in the competition wins the job, my advice will be the same.

Ivory, or the winner of the competition, is at best a RB2 or a flex. If you draft them, look to trade them after four or five weeks for a player that has a better looking second half or playoff schedule. He is a player you could platoon throughout the season based on match ups. Ivory is currently RB 44 at 106^th overall pick in the ADP on fantasypros.com. As late round depth that has potential trade value, Ivory is a target of mine in round nine to ten.

Reggie Bush 2015 outlook

Reggie Bush has found his way to his fourth team in his NFL career. Starting out in New Orleans, and arguably being misused in their offense, Bush moved on to Miami for two fairly productive seasons. Following Miami, Bush spent two seasons in Detroit, last season hampered by injuries. And finally in 2015 Bush will find himself in with the San Francisco 49ers. Likely his last stop entering his 10^th season in the NFL, Bush is set up for success as long as he can stay healthy.

Image source: 49ers.com

Bush has not been the model of efficiency 

using the consistency report from Bob Lung. With 24 quality games out of 41 in his last three seasons, Bush has been a 59% consistent player. He has played well against bad defenses with a 100% consistent performance on the road, and 71% at home. Bush scored well at home against middle ranked defense at 60% consistent, but bad on the road against this tier with no quality games. Surprisingly against good defenses Bush is more consistent on the road than at home.

The way I am looking at the 49ers schedule and Bush for the 2015 season is in respect to passing downs. The attrition that the 49ers faced this offseason leaves the cupboard bare on defense, and I believe they will be a shell of their former selves. This leads me to believe that they will be trailing a fair amount this season and will be throwing a lot. This is where we see the value in Bush. He will likely be inheriting the passing downs work, and if San Francisco is behind, a lot of downs will be passing downs.

In regards to defenses they will face this season, the passing defenses are the softer spot for San Francisco. They face an average pass defense of 17.87, the 10^th best. They face five Top 10 pass defenses from a season ago. Compare this to the 23^rd ranked run defense schedule at an average rank of 14.93 and five Top 10 run defenses. With the mess the 49ers will probably be on defense, and difficult run defense schedule, I can see them spending a lot of time trying to catch up by passing.

San Francisco plays in one of the toughest divisions in football. The defenses they face in Seattle, St. Louis, and Arizona are no joke. They all sport tough, hard hitting defenses. The worst rank any divisional foe had in run defense was 14 last season. The Cardinals and rams were ranked worse in pass than run last season, meaning that the vulnerability they did show favors Bush.

Additionally, the bye week for the 49ers is a late one this season. Week 10 is when San Francisco will be taking a week off. If Bush hit, you can plug him into a flex spot in the lineup for a long duration of the Fantasy season.

The big caveat for Bush will be staying healthy.

He is not a young man anymore with respect to being a running back. Entering his 10^th season in the NFL, health will be the big concern for Bush. He has missed 7 games the last two seasons, and was not particularly effective last season. In 2014 he only had about 550 yards from scrimmage and two scores. The positive in the respect is his average draft position. He amounts to a lottery ticket for Fantasy owners this year. The current average draft position for Reggie is 120 according to fantasypros.com. This means that in a 12 team league he is a pick at the 10^th and 11^th round turn. By this point in the draft he makes perfect sense as a guy with some upside after you have your starting core established.

With all the signs in San Francisco pointing towards them pushing the reset button 

on the team and cleaning house, Reggie Bush might be the diamond in the rough that can help your fantasy team in the 2015 season. If he can stay healthy, and San Francisco plays as bad on defense as it looks like they will, Bush has a big chance to see a lot of playing time. For a 10 or 11 Bush can be the lottery ticket that helps Fantasy owners bring home a championship.

Fantasy Pros Mock Draft Simulator

I firmly believe in the power of the mock draft. This time of year values of players fluctuate a lot. Mock drafting is a way to gauge values of players for the upcoming season. Unless you already know your draft pick spot, I highly recommend trying mocks from all of the different spots in the draft. The Fantasy Pros mock draft simulator is a great way to do this.
A note for mobile users: Click the link at the bottom of the page for the web version to see the banners. 

All the sites that host Fantasy leagues have mock draft lobbies. some of them are rigid, and won't necessarily meet your needs for league size and rules. Then when you get into the lobby, you often find people that stick around for the first pick, and then either time out or just auto pick the whole draft. This is annoying and frustrating. Also the time it takes for each person to make a pick can be tedious.

Fantasy Pros has solved many of these problems with their mock draft simulator. The mock draft simulator takes the blended rankings of many of the top Fantasy analysts and sites and allows you to do a mock draft based on them. You can customize these mock drafts to many different settings for league size, scoring, positions, IDP, skill level of other drafters, and you can select any pick in the draft order. A mock draft on the simulator takes about five minutes to complete. How is it so fast? As soon as you make your selection, the simulator populates all the picks between yours. This allows you to gather a lot of data in a short amount of time.

The speed with which you can complete a mock draft on the simulator allows you to quickly try out all the draft spots in the order, and will let you try out different strategies like zero RB and taking slightly unorthodox picks early in your draft. It will let you see how some players might fall in your real drafts, and give you a pretty good idea what kind of team you can build from any position in the draft. I myself have already done about 40 mock drafts this year. I have tried out strategies like taking three Green Bay Packers with my first three picks, Gronking my first round pick, and not drafting a quarterback until literally my last pick, I ended up with Teddy Bridgewater.

So give the banner at the top, or the box on the side a click and get a mock draft started today.

Josh Hill, 2015 Tight End Sleeper

Over the past few years the New Orleans Saints have been a prolific offense. Since coming to the Saints in 2006, Drew Brees has thrown for 43,685 yards and 316 touchdowns. Many people attribute a lot of his success to the addition of Jimmy Graham, but he was doing it before Graham, and he will be doing it after.

Image source: star-telegram.com

Some have said that the Saints will probably be shifting to a more run heavy offense in the coming season. Some of their personnel moves are certainly signaling this. But that doesn’t mean that the Saints won’t be throwing the ball at all. Brees has become one of the best quarterbacks of all time. Not the top guy, but in the Top 15 conversation. So why would he stop throwing now? And in a division where there is only one team that actually plays defense? Come on. The Saints themselves can’t play much defense, so of course they will be throwing the ball.

This brings me to the point of the article. Acquiring a target likely to see some good field time, and targets from Brees. A big target. A red zone target. And a big red zone target that you can currently find in the round 10 or 11 areas of the Average Draft Position on fantasypros.com.

Once the Saints traded away Jimmy Graham there was a void left to be filled. Well let’s take a look at a 6’5” 229lb void filling, red zone target in Josh Hill. The trade of Graham instantly made the situation that Hill finds himself in much better for his prospects, and the prospects of Fantasy owners that take a chance on him this season. Hill does lack a bit in experience in his two seasons of NFL football, only having a total of 20 catches for 220 yards. The fantastic thing is that of his 20 catches, a whopping six of them are for touchdowns. That is a ridiculous rate. Yes unsustainable, but it shows that Hill at least has a chance to take some of the role that was Graham’s in New Orleans.

The Saints have a mixed bag at wide receiver this season. An aging Marques Colston has seen both his catches and yards decline over the past few years. The Saints drafted Brandin Cooks last season, but he is unproven, and ended up injured last year. Nick Toon has gotten some buzz as well this offseason, but has only been able to see the field for 16 games over his first three seasons with the saints. Ben Watson is hanging around, and is the biggest direct threat to Hill at the tight end spot, but he is 34 years old and two inches shorter.

In regards to the schedule of defenses against the tight end points allowed that Hill will face this season, it looks good. The schedule is the fifth best schedule for tight ends for the year, coming in at an average rank of 18.06. Only four Top 10 teams in fantasy points allowed to tight ends are on the slate.

If you don’t end up getting one of the elite guys early in your draft, Hill starts to look pretty juicy at an ADP of 115 on fantasypros.com in PPR formats. My suggestion is if you draft Hill, take another tight end with some upside potential later in the draft and see if you hit on one of them, maybe both. Keep an eye on the playing time and target distribution during the preseason, but for a fairly late pick, he’s worth the gamble in my opinion.

Danny Woodhead 2015 Late Round Running Back

Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego Chargers

is back this season after breaking his leg in September of the 2014 season. Woodhead was a big part of the chargers offense in the 2013 season. A sneaky value play that season, Woodhead is on my list of late round value guys you can look to plug in as a platoon at your running back or flex spots this season.

Image source: nypost.com

Taking a look at the Average Draft Position (ADP) to find value players to take in a PPR league is a good preseason practice. Sure leagues might play out a little differently, but overall I have found that the values are pretty similar. Some of that can be attributed to the rankings on a  league site influencing the players that show available at the nearby picks. So knowing the players and where they tend to go in drafts gives owners a head start over their opponents in draft strategy.

This is where we find Woodhead. With an ADP of 107 according to fantasypros.com PPR rankings, Woodhead is a good addition to a Fantasy team for a multitude of purposes. He can be used as a bye week fill in for the RB2 or flex positions. If  punting on the RB2 spot in favor of either a heavy early wide receiver draft, or take an elite quarterback or tight end in the early rounds, then Woodhead can be immensely valuable.

Taking a look at his 2013 numbers with the Chargers, 

we find that Woodhead was a very productive guy in PPR formats. He had over 1000 yards combined, 429 rushing and 605 receiving. Along with his solid yardage statistics, Woodhead also scored eight total touchdowns during the 2013 season, two rushing and six receiving. He made his hay in long yardage situations and in the red zone. On plays where the Chargers had 10 or more yards to go, Woodhead gained 625 of his yards. In the red zone he had 18 rushes, scoring on two of those. But his big key to the red zone offense for San Diego was his receiving in the red zone. In 2013 he caught 19 passes in the red zone, scoring on five of them. That is excellent efficiency, scoring on about one of every four red zone passes he caught.

The schedule for the Chargers breaks in two completely different directions. The run defenses they will face are by far better than the pass defenses. The average run defense the Chargers will face is 17.68, the ninth easiest schedule in the league. They will only face five Top 10 run defenses. The pass defenses on the slate this season are much harder. The schedule is ranked 27^th overall, with an average of 13.75. Eight Top 10 pass defenses from last season await them. Traditionally Woodhead has played well against lower ranked defenses.

The season opens with a tough game at home against Detroit, the top run defense last year, and 13^th against the pass, but it gets better from there. After Week 1, the Chargers face bottom half run defenses in five of the next six games. Fantasy playoff time finds the schedule breaking very well for the Chargers running game. In Week 14 the Chiefs stout pass defense and 28^th ranked run defense host San Diego. Week 15 finds the Chargers hosting the long traveling, pass defending, and 24^th ranked run defending Miami Dolphins. In many leagues championship games, the Chargers travel to Oakland and face their 22^nd ranked run defense and 16^th ranked pass defense. If the playoffs play to Week 17, a difficult divisional road match up awaits the Chargers in Denver. Denver sported the number two run defense and the number nine pass defense a year ago.

With the fact that Woodhead is returning from an injury

Fantasy players will definitely want to keep an eye on him in training camp and preseason games to make sure that he is healthy and still able to play. The Chargers also drafted Melvin Gordon, a solid pass catching back, who may be able to keep Woodhead at bay if he can pass block well. Branden Oliver showed well as the Chargers running back last year in the absence of Woodhead for a few games, so his usage and position on the depth chart should also be monitored.

A possible boon for Woodhead might be found in the suspension of Antonio Gates. With gates out for the first four games of the season, San Diego will be without one of their red zone targets. This may serve to boost the usage of Woodhead in the red zone, leaving his Fantasy owners to reap the benefits.

If Woodhead can win his spot back as the long yardage, third down, and red zone back for San Diego, he might be a player that can help fantasy owners win a championship in the 2015 season. His late round ADP makes him an easily attainable resource for any team. 

Jimmy Graham 2015 Outlook

Image source reddit.com

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks has been one of the Top 2 tight ends in fantasy football over the last four seasons. The off season trade to the Seahawks has made some want to shy away from Graham, but I’m advocating that he should remain a high round draft pick for your teams. 

His rookie season he didn’t get much work, but since then he has averaged 88 catches per year, 1099 yards per season, and 11.5 touchdowns.

Graham has been the most consistent TE over the last three seasons 

according to Bob Lung’s consistency rankings. Find Bob's work at ffconsistency.com. Graham has had a total of 38 quality games over that span. Last season, Graham had 11 quality games of his 16 for a consistency percentage of 69. Along with his great quality games numbers, he is the only TE that has had double digit quality games in each of the past three seasons. In 2014 he had the second highest point total for tight ends at 223.9 points for a PPR league.

Graham has a great schedule ahead of him for the 2015 season.

Ranking the seventh easiest, he will only face off against three Top 10 defenses against the TE position. The average rank of the defense he will face is 17.93. The season begins with the only Top 5 defense in the St. Louis Rams that the Seahawks will face. After that game the Seahawks will not face off against another Top 10 team until week 15.

The playoff run for Graham does feature three of the most difficult match ups he will face in 2015. Week 14 has him facing off against the 14^th best defense in the Ravens. The week 15 match up gets a little harder when they face off against the 10^th ranked defense against TE in the Browns. Week 16 will have Graham meeting the Rams for the second time of the season. If your leagues play all 17 weeks of the season, a great finale awaits you in the 29^th ranked Arizona Cardinals.

The average draft position (ADP) for Graham seems a bit high,

but if you draft round one and two well, you can have a guy that is in the elite ranks of TE. According to the ADP on fantasypros.com, Graham can be had at the 26^th overall pick in a standard league, and 29^th overall pick in PPR leagues. Assuming you can draft one to two elite top tier players in the RB or WR categories, Graham allows you a clear advantage over all the other TE except Rob Gronkowski.

As we saw in the Super Bowl last year, the Seahawks need a big, physical player in the red zone. Graham at 6’7 and 260 pounds can definitely provide them this. His basketball background allows him to box out smaller players and dominate the red zone. Third down is another situation where it is likely that Graham will be used, and useful to the Hawks. Getting the tough yards to keep drives alive is another spot it is easy to imagine Graham seeing a lot of usage.

While it is fairly certain that the years of 125 to 145 targets are now behind him, I can see the efficiency of the targets he will get being great. The Seahawks have a three headed monster in the read option and play action plays that they will run. Defenses will have to respect Marshawn Lynch and his running ability. In addition, many defensive units will need to keep a spy on Russell Wilson. This will likely leave a lot of open space in the middle of the field for the third head of this monster to operate.

Trading for Graham in the off season and taking on his contract, which pays him $10 million dollars a year, is another sign to me that he will remain a key offensive weapon. That is a lot of money to pay a player and not make him a big part of your offensive and game plans. If you take a look at the games in which Percy Harvin actually saw the field for the Seahawks in his time in Seattle, they have been known to manufacture ways to get the ball to players that they feel can have big upside and be mismatches for the opposition.

So for these reasons I believe that the schedule outlook for Jimmy Graham in 2015 is in great shape. His usage, needs of the team, consistency, and ability to create mismatches with defenders should all set him up to keep scoring you copious amounts of points in your Fantasy Football games this year.

Taking A Good Look At QB: Guys I Don't Want On My Team

In my last article I wrote about some quarterbacks that I was interested in having on my team for the upcoming season based on their consistent play and 2015 schedules. So it seems obvious that I should take a look at the other side of that equation as well. Here is a look at some quarterbacks I don't want to draft for the upcoming season.

Image source hngn.com

Jay Cutler (CHI) has had an up and down career. The early off season chatter had rumors of Cutler on the trading block or being cut, but his contract is a huge handcuff for the Bears. Cutler has been an inconsistent player, although he was 67% consistent last season according to the statistics of ffconsistency.com. The loss of Brandon Marshall, who didn't do much last season due to injuries, could loom large for Cutler and the Bears in 2015. Alshon Jeffery is a fine player, and can likely be a great number 1 receiver, but that is still to be proven. Eddie Royal was brought in this year and has familiarity with the offense and Cutler, but he has often been a flash in the pan type of fantasy option.

The biggest hurdle for the Bears passing game this year is a brutal schedule. They have a tie for the worst upcoming schedule in the league against the pass. The average rank of the pass defenses the bears will face in 2015 is 12.31. In addition they will play against a whopping 9 top 10 pass defenses from a season ago. In recent years the offensive line has not been great, and word has been that they are using a rookie at left tackle. It could be a long season for Da Bears, Cutler, and his owners in fantasy.

Image source: nypost.com

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) is a trendy name in fantasy right now. After being the 5th highest scoring

quarterback in 2014, many people are touting him for the 2015 season. Scoring a 56% consistency in 2014, Roethlisberger was 9th in consistency. But digging a little bit deeper into his numbers, there emerges some troubling trends for his play.

In 2015 the Steelers will play the 29th ranked schedule of pass defenses, with an average rank of 13.5. Of the Steelers 16 games, 7 will be played against top 10 defenses from a year ago. Over the last 3 seasons Big Ben has not fared well against the top level defenses he has faced. In 14 games played against top 10 defenses over that span he has only put up quality games in 5, for an average of about 36%. Let us also recall that 12 of his 32 touchdowns from a season ago came in just 2 games. As much as I love Antonio Brown, I can't love Ben this year.

Image source: footbasket.com

Phillip Rivers (SD) makes the list of quarterbacks I have no interest in for the 2015 season as well. Having just a 50% consistency rating last 2 seasons, and a dismal 25% in 2012, he is not the model of efficiency for your fantasy roster. Oddly he does seem to play better on the road against top defenses than at home. Against average defenses (between 11 and 22) he is an abysmal 1 quality game in 14 tries.

The upcoming season will see the Chargers take on the 27th hardest pass defense lineup, averaging 13.75 overall. Of the defenses they will face, 8 of them were ranked in the top 10 last year. With an aging tight end and number 2 receiver, a lot will be left on the shoulders of Keenan Allen, who had a disappointing sophomore season. I'm passing on Rivers this season.

Image source: enefel.com

Matthew Stafford (DET) has been a guy I targeted in my leagues in the past. Throwing to one of the

best wide receivers in the game is a good thing for your fantasy quarterback. But Calvin Johnson had trouble staying healthy last year, and is losing favor in the fantasy community. A healthy Johnson could bounce back this season, but I don't think I will be taking a chance on Stafford in 2015.

The Lions face a pretty tough schedule in the upcoming year, averaging a rank of 14.68 they have the 23rd toughest pass defense schedule. Add to that the fact that they will face 9 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago and it is a tough road this year for Detroit. Stafford only scored 237 fantasy points in ESPN leagues last year, making him tied for 15th. In his previous 2 season he was a pretty consistent quarterback, 75% in 2012, and 69% in 2013, but his 50% in 2014 shows a trend in the wrong direction. I'm leaving him to the masses this year.

Image source: usatoday.com

Andy Dalton (CIN) had a brutal year in 2014. It didn't help that he was without much of a wide receiver target for a large portion of the year. With basically 1 NFL level talent for some games catching his passes, Dalton was only 38% consistent last season. His overall consistency numbers over the 2 previous seasons were only 56%. Dalton only scored 210 fantasy points in 2014, and that includes 4 rushing touchdowns that I wouldn't count on again in 2015.

The Bengals face a tough schedule coming up this year. Coming in at the 24th hardest pass defense schedule faced, averaging a rank of 14.06, it isn't going to be easy. Dalton will run into 8 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. Dalton has fared well on the road against top defenses in the past, but not as well at home, and plays inconsistently against even the lower tier defenses. After being the 18th ranked quarterback in fantasy points last season, I can't say I want anything to do with Dalton for the upcoming year.

Hopefully this has shed some light on the other side of the fantasy quarterback. Making educated decisions on which guys to get, and which guys to platoon will lead you to success in your leagues in 2015. Look for more to come on running backs, receivers, and tight ends in the near future.

Taking A Good Look At QB

Wait on one. Take one in the late first round. Don't take one until the mid rounds. The advice on the quarterback position is all over the board. The top 6 scoring players in ESPN standard leagues were quarterbacks. What does this mean? You can get one of them at every part of the draft the advice suggests. But which one to get? I posit that schedule and consistent play can lead you to great situations.

Image source cbssports.com

Last year Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck were a cut above. Scoring 342 and 336 points respectively in ESPN standard scoring. Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning were a tier of their own at 312 and 307. Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees complete the list of pre-cliff QB's scoring 295 and 290. From there it went downhill, but not to despair.

So how to decide when and who to take at the quarterback position? Some of that is personal, and based largely on draft strategy. If a top tier guy falls far enough for me, like Rodgers or Luck in the 3rd round, I might take them. But I myself find that I like to wait and fill out the rest of my roster, and some of my bench, before I snag a QB. There is value in the mid to late rounds of the draft at the QB position.

Image source: chatsports.com

Obviously Luck and Rodgers are great quarterbacks, both NFL and fantasy. They were both tied with ffconsistency.com, tops in the league. This season Luck is in prime position to have a stellar performance. Indy has added offensive weapons like Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, Duron Carter, and Phillip Dorsett. Adding those players to TY Hilton and tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener makes one potent offense. Then look at the numbers of the defenses they will face in 2015 and your mouth should start watering. The average rank of the pass defenses that the Colts will face in the upcoming season is 18. They have the 9th best schedule for pass defenses they will face from 2014 numbers. On top of that, they will only face 3 top 10 defenses against the pass from last season. I certainly can't blame anyone for taking Luck in their draft.

81% consistency ratings according to Bob Lung's ratings on

Aaron Rodgers has some good offensive weapons as well in Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Eddie Lacy. Davante Adams still has some proving himself to do, but Arod was singing his praises this off season. The big difference I find between Luck and Rodgers is that Rodgers faces a more formidable schedule of pass defenses. The Packers average pass defense faced for the 2015 season is 13.87, the 26th ranked schedule in the league. They will square off against 7 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. Now don't get this info wrong. I don't think that Rodgers will not play well this season, he is a great  quarterback, but his road is much tougher than Luck.

So let's turn our attention to some mid to late round quarterbacks that, should you choose not to draft Luck and Rodgers, have favorable schedules based on the defenses they will face.

Image source: web.vtc.edu

Drew Brees is currently ranked 42 in average draft position (ADP) on Fantasypros.com. Fantasy Pros uses a blended ranking of multiple sites to give you an average across many platforms. Brees was 75% consistent last season, and about 79% over the past 3 seasons, according to Bob Lung of ffconsistency.com and socalledfantasyexperts.com. This means that Brees has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks over the last 3 seasons. In the upcoming season Brees has the second best ranked schedule of defenses against the pass. The Saints average pass defense faced in 2015 was 22.06, and they won't face a single top 10 pass defense from a year ago. On top of that, they will play a total of 10 games indoors this season. At a 4th round value for a 10 team league, or late 3rd in a 12 team, Brees should definitely be on your radar this season.

Tony Romo is currently a 7th round (10 team) or 6th round (12 team) pick according to Fantasy Pros ADP. Romo was a 73% consistent player last season. This year he has the 8th best schedule against opposing pass defenses from a year ago, an average defense of 18.31. Dallas will only face a top 10 pass defense 4 times this season. With turmoil in the backfield of the Cowboys this off season, it might make sense that Dallas could pass more against the weak pass defenses they will face. As long as everyone pertinent to the Cowboys pass attack makes it out of the preseason unscathed, and Dez Bryant doesn't miss any time, Romo is a guy that is high up on my list for 2015.

Image source: reddit.com

Russell Wilson is pretty good at football. Both running the ball, and passing it. And this season you

might just see the Seahawks open up their offense against some sub-par defenses. The addition of Jimmy Graham will loom large for the Hawks this season. A big physical target in the middle of the field should open up the outside, and the element of surprise will always be with the play action and read option. Wilson had a monster season on the ground in 2014, rushing for 849 yards and 6 scores. In addition to his amazing rushing stats, Wilson threw for over 3400 yards and 20 touchdowns, while only having 7 interceptions. In a sort of contract year, expect only top level play from Wilson in 2015. In terms of consistency, Russell was at 69% last year, good for 7th among quarterbacks. The schedule shapes up nicely for Wilson and the Seahawks passing attack this season as well. They will face the 11th best schedule against pass defenses, averaging 17.56. They will only face 5 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. At 35th overall in ADP his price might be a little bit high for my liking, but he has multiple ways to score you points.

Image source: fanthem.com

Last but not least for this article, Eli Manning. I've never been much of an Eli guy, but I am kind of interested in him this season. I do need to hear some good things about the shape of the offensive line for the Giants, and I would like to see Victor Cruz back by the beginning of the season, but it is hard to deny the talent we saw from Odell Beckham Jr. last season. Eli threw for 4410 yards and 30 touchdowns last season, with only 14 interceptions. The new uptempo offense seemed to suit him, and he was able to help make Odell a household name. Eli was  tied for 10th in consistency last season at 56%. The Giants have the 6th best schedule in relation to pass defenses faced from 2014, averaging a rank of 19.37. They will only face 4 top 10 defenses from last year. Assuming that the Giants are able to lock down the line, and Cruz can still play, Eli could be a steal at an ADP of 99 overall. 

So as you can see, yes there are some elite guys out there. They will never be bad selections, but are they necessary? If you can acquire top level talent at other positions that will not be available later in the draft, you can still find your value guys later in the draft.