In my last article I wrote about some quarterbacks that I was interested in having on my team for the upcoming season based on their consistent play and 2015 schedules. So it seems obvious that I should take a look at the other side of that equation as well. Here is a look at some quarterbacks I don't want to draft for the upcoming season.
 |
| Image source hngn.com |
Jay Cutler (CHI) has had an up and down career. The early off season chatter had rumors of Cutler on the trading block or being cut, but his contract is a huge handcuff for the Bears. Cutler has been an inconsistent player, although he was 67% consistent last season according to the statistics of ffconsistency.com. The loss of Brandon Marshall, who didn't do much last season due to injuries, could loom large for Cutler and the Bears in 2015. Alshon Jeffery is a fine player, and can likely be a great number 1 receiver, but that is still to be proven. Eddie Royal was brought in this year and has familiarity with the offense and Cutler, but he has often been a flash in the pan type of fantasy option.
The biggest hurdle for the Bears passing game this year is a brutal schedule. They have a tie for the worst upcoming schedule in the league against the pass. The average rank of the pass defenses the bears will face in 2015 is 12.31. In addition they will play against a whopping 9 top 10 pass defenses from a season ago. In recent years the offensive line has not been great, and word has been that they are using a rookie at left tackle. It could be a long season for Da Bears, Cutler, and his owners in fantasy.
 |
| Image source: nypost.com |
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) is a trendy name in fantasy right now. After being the 5th highest scoring
quarterback in 2014, many people are touting him for the 2015 season. Scoring a 56% consistency in 2014, Roethlisberger was 9th in consistency. But digging a little bit deeper into his numbers, there emerges some troubling trends for his play.
In 2015 the Steelers will play the 29th ranked schedule of pass defenses, with an average rank of 13.5. Of the Steelers 16 games, 7 will be played against top 10 defenses from a year ago. Over the last 3 seasons Big Ben has not fared well against the top level defenses he has faced. In 14 games played against top 10 defenses over that span he has only put up quality games in 5, for an average of about 36%. Let us also recall that 12 of his 32 touchdowns from a season ago came in just 2 games. As much as I love Antonio Brown, I can't love Ben this year.
 |
| Image source: footbasket.com |
Phillip Rivers (SD) makes the list of quarterbacks I have no interest in for the 2015 season as well. Having just a 50% consistency rating last 2 seasons, and a dismal 25% in 2012, he is not the model of efficiency for your fantasy roster. Oddly he does seem to play better on the road against top defenses than at home. Against average defenses (between 11 and 22) he is an abysmal 1 quality game in 14 tries.
The upcoming season will see the Chargers take on the 27th hardest pass defense lineup, averaging 13.75 overall. Of the defenses they will face, 8 of them were ranked in the top 10 last year. With an aging tight end and number 2 receiver, a lot will be left on the shoulders of Keenan Allen, who had a disappointing sophomore season. I'm passing on Rivers this season.
 |
| Image source: enefel.com |
Matthew Stafford (DET) has been a guy I targeted in my leagues in the past. Throwing to one of the
best wide receivers in the game is a good thing for your fantasy quarterback. But Calvin Johnson had trouble staying healthy last year, and is losing favor in the fantasy community. A healthy Johnson could bounce back this season, but I don't think I will be taking a chance on Stafford in 2015.
The Lions face a pretty tough schedule in the upcoming year, averaging a rank of 14.68 they have the 23rd toughest pass defense schedule. Add to that the fact that they will face 9 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago and it is a tough road this year for Detroit. Stafford only scored 237 fantasy points in ESPN leagues last year, making him tied for 15th. In his previous 2 season he was a pretty consistent quarterback, 75% in 2012, and 69% in 2013, but his 50% in 2014 shows a trend in the wrong direction. I'm leaving him to the masses this year.
 |
| Image source: usatoday.com |
Andy Dalton (CIN) had a brutal year in 2014. It didn't help that he was without much of a wide receiver target for a large portion of the year. With basically 1 NFL level talent for some games catching his passes, Dalton was only 38% consistent last season. His overall consistency numbers over the 2 previous seasons were only 56%. Dalton only scored 210 fantasy points in 2014, and that includes 4 rushing touchdowns that I wouldn't count on again in 2015.
The Bengals face a tough schedule coming up this year. Coming in at the 24th hardest pass defense schedule faced, averaging a rank of 14.06, it isn't going to be easy. Dalton will run into 8 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. Dalton has fared well on the road against top defenses in the past, but not as well at home, and plays inconsistently against even the lower tier defenses. After being the 18th ranked quarterback in fantasy points last season, I can't say I want anything to do with Dalton for the upcoming year.
Hopefully this has shed some light on the other side of the fantasy quarterback. Making educated decisions on which guys to get, and which guys to platoon will lead you to success in your leagues in 2015. Look for more to come on running backs, receivers, and tight ends in the near future.
