Trade Targets: CJ Anderson

Well we are about two weeks into the NFL season. As I sit writing this, we all are awaiting kickoff between the Giants and Redskins for week three. Some narratives have come true, some look false. The time has come to wade through these and find the diamonds in the rough that have just gotten off to a rough start.

Last season I wrote an article about Eddie Lacy after the first three weeks of the season. He faced off against three top five defenses to start his season, and was seen to be underperforming. But the reality was, those defenses he faced were good. It was a brutal start to the year. And if you found an owner willing to trade you Lacy, you got a great performance from him the rest of the way. The deal I made was trading Alshon Jeffery for Eddie Lacy straight up. Jeffery was my WR4, and I could afford the deal.

Image source: denverpost.com

So after two weeks of the season, who is a guy that we can take a look at buying low on? 

Who has a favorable schedule moving forward? When should we pounce? Let’s take a look at all these factors together now.

CJ Anderson, RB, Denver has been a major disappointment. I was in love with the narrative for the Denver offense this season. Aging quarterback, stud tight end gone, and new coach who wants to run the ball a lot, what’s not to love. Add to that a defense that can hold their opponents down and make the strategy work. It all sounds so great.

Then, reality sets in.

 Anderson hurts his toe in game one. Peyton looks terrible in the Kubiak offense. He can’t run and looks every bit of his age. The offensive line looks like they can’t block at all. Through two weeks of the season Anderson has 56 yards on 24 carries and five catches for 21 yards. Not good numbers. Is there any good news? Well in Week 1 they played Baltimore in a defensive brawl. Baltimore has been a tough defense against the run.  Kansas City in week two proved a tough match up for the Broncos all around. But in a tale of two halves the Broncos were able to move the ball later in the game, and CJ was the back on the field.

So what does the upcoming schedule hold for CJ and the Broncos? Well before the season I would have told you that the Broncos face a fairly tough start, but also have a Top 5 run schedule this year. Kansas City was an outlier based on their stats from last year, but the next opponent for the Broncos is the Lions, and without Deandre Levy and Ndamukong Suh plugging up the middle, the Lions have not been that strong against the run in their first two games.

After that game the schedule really opens up for the Broncos on the ground. The next seven games are against teams that were in the bottom half of yards allowed on the ground last season. The Patriots are the eighth game out after the Lions, and one of only two more Top 10 run defenses from last season. The Fantasy playoff run consists of games against the Raiders, Steelers, and Bengals for weeks 14-16.

I am recommending taking a shot at trading for CJ Anderson in your leagues. 

If you have a surplus of wide receivers on your bench, you might be able to give your fourth or fifth best wide receiver to a team that is likely in need of an infusion of points. If you are running back heavy, you might be able to move one of them for Anderson.

Basically I see the tide turning for Anderson. If the offensive line can gel, and Kubiak and Manning can find a common ground to run an offense that can succeed, Anderson can truly be a diamond in the rough for your fantasy team. Take a run at his owner and see what you can make happen. Bargain shopping in week 2 can make you a champion.

Waiver Wire For Week 3:

The first two weeks of the NFL season have been brutal to the ranks of Fantasy Football. Dez Bryant, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Eddie Lacy, Eric Decker, the list goes on. So many of your Fantasy relevant players have gotten hurt. So what are you to do? Hit the wire. Fill those rosters with players that might help you win. Let's find some of those guys together.



It's all about the Benjamins

Travis Benjamin, WR, Cleveland has had a pretty good start to the season scoring 4 times in the first two weeks. Two long receiving touchdowns on Sunday and a punt return  74 yards for a score. Benjamin is a stash and wait kind of player for me. I find him much more desirable in leagues that give points for return yardage. His value may be tied to the ability of Johnny Manziel keeping the starting job. I am not ready to start him, but I could see him on my roster if I need a big upside player.

Starks me up

James Starks, RB, Green Bay has the chance this week to take over the running load in the Green Bay offense. With Eddie Lacy banged up with an ankle injury in week two, Starks came on strong to help the Packers take down the Seahawks. If Lacy remains out his week, Starks steps right into the job with a high ability to succeed.

Jonesin'

Matt Jones, RB, Washington has proven his ability in the Washington run game. Jones had 19 carries for 123 yards and two scores, plus three catches for 23 yards. Jones has wedged his way into the run game for Washington, and I am not expecting that to change anytime soon. Washington will be perfectly happy to have an effective tandem at running back and try to win with defense and clock control. Grab some Matt Jones.

What you Snead

Willie Snead, WR, New Orleans had a lot of buzz during the preseason. Snead hit last week for the Saints, Willie caught four passes for 44 yards and a score in week two. In week one Snead only had one catch for 63 yards, so he may be inconsistent. But the New Orleans offense must try something new. At 0-2 and now possibly without Drew Brees this week, something has to change in the Saints offense. Snead just might be the benefactor of this.

Mr. Rodgers neighborhood

Richard Rodgers, TE, Green Bay was my secret weapon in some of my leagues this season. Once Jordy Nelson went down with a torn ACL, the Packers were going to need some help in the red zone. The reason he was my secret weapon? Well I crunched the numbers from last year and found that Green Bay had the third best schedule for points allowed to tight ends. The only issue was they don't usually use a tight end. Well, Nelson out helped him with that. Last week Rodgers caught both a touchdown pass, and a two point conversion en route to a 3-23-1 night. Not a huge evening, but he was also targeted again for a deep pass and another time in the end zone. So now my secret is out, and you can benefit.

Neon Dion

Dion Lewis, RB, New England has been a monster the first two games of the season. Through the first two weeks of the season Lewis has 22 rushes for 109 yards and a score, and has 10 catches for 149 yards. The bad news is that he has a fumbling issue. The good news, he has still gotten in the game. As hard as it is to trust a Patriots running back, he hasn't come off the field after the fumbles, and Brady has talked him up. If he is still available in your leagues, add him to your roster.

Quarterbacks to stream Week 3

Ryan Fitzpatrick plays at home against the defensively hapless Eagles.
Marcus Mariota plays at home against the Colts. Indy is down corners on defense, and if they don't get them back it could be a great day for Mariota.
Nick Foles plays at home against the Steelers. Not sure who he is throwing to, but the Steelers won't stop it.

Defenses to stream Week 3

Cincinnati Bengals head into Baltimore. The Baltimore offense is no great shakes this year, and I wouldn't expect a ton from them.
Cleveland Browns host the Oakland Raiders. Cleveland has decent corner play and a front line that should start to gel soon. The Raiders just aren't good, yet. They seem to be heading in the right direction, but have a ways to go.

Week Two Start Sit

Well it has been a slow few weeks as real life has caught up with me. Lots of busy things happening. Drafts were amazing. Had a great time, and have some great teams. I hope the same has befallen you as well. So now we have a full week in the bank. It’s time to look at the best plays and worst plays we find this week. So let’s take a look at this week’s start/sit.

Start

John Brown, WR, Arizona is facing his second good match up in a row. After performing fairly well in Week One, with four catches on seven targets for 46 yards and a touchdown, Brown is once again a guy I am sliding into my flex positions this week.  Facing the Chicago Bears in Week Two, Brown finds a favorable situation ahead. The Bears gave up three touchdowns through the air last week. In the 2014 season the Bears were 30^th in passing yards allowed for the season. I expect the issues with the Bears passing defense to continue this week. Get Brown in your lineup.

Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona is leading the attack again this week for the Cardinals. Palmer had a superb opening game to the season, throwing for 307 yards and 3 scores. Palmer is a good enough quarterback to take advantage of a defense that is weak in the passing game. Expect him to do more of the same this week. If you are lucky and planned the start of your season, you can stack Palmer and Brown this week and double your pleasure. Palmer is a great start for you this week.

Bishop Sankey, RB, Tennessee is a surprise addition to this list. I never thought I'd say that after the 2014 season, and the tumultuous offseason at the running back position in Tennessee. Sankey had a fantastic performance in the new and seemingly improved offense of the Titans. Rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota was fantastic in his NFL debut last week, and Sankey was also impressive. This week Sankey and the Titans will face off against the hapless Cleveland Browns. Last season the Browns gave up the most yards per game on the ground. The Browns picked up right where they left off allowing 154 yards in their first game of the season. If you see Sankey hanging out on your waiver wire and are in need of a running back this week, snatch him up and get him in your lineup.

Steve Smith Sr, WR, Baltimore squares off against the not improved defense of the Oakland raiders. The Ravens faced the Broncos in a clash of good defensive units last week. This week, the Ravens offense will have a much better time of it. The Raiders gave up 270 yards and 2 passing touchdowns last week to the Cincinnati Bengals. This bodes well for the likes of Smith Sr. Look for him to atone for dropping a touchdown last week. Get Smith Sr. in your lineups.

Eric Decker, WR, New York Jets is a great second receiver for an NFL team. The good news about that is he will likely not get the top corner coverage a lot this year now that the Jets have a number one guy. This week the Jets face the sub-par defense of the Indianapolis Colts. The colts didn’t give up a huge amount of passing yards in the first week of the season, but they did give up a long score to Percy Harvin. Expect that the top corner, Vontae Davis, will be on Brandon Marshall. This leads me to believe that Decker is primed to have himself a solid game. Start him if you got him.

Sit

LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots was suspended for the first week of the season so we haven’t seen him on the field yet in regular season action. His first game back is against the stout defense of the Buffalo Bills. The narrative being bounced around twitter and the podcast circuit is that the Patriots will attack the Bills defense with short passing. This seems to make sense with some of the personnel the Pats feature. If this is in fact what Bill Belichick does with his game plan, this doesn’t play well for Blount. Blount is not the best pass catching back the pats have. Along with the possible bad game plan for Blount, Buffalo is very good against the run. The Bills allowed just over 100 yards on the ground per game last season, and in their first game of this season they held the Colts to 64 rushing yards. I’m sitting Blount this week.

Andre Johnson, WR, Indianapolis Colts looked like an old, washed up man last week against the Bills. This week assuming he gets the top corner his opponent has if TY Hilton is out, we will welcome Johnson to Revis Island. I can’t imagine any situation where Revis has two functioning legs and can’t shut down Johnson. The best hope for him is if Donte Moncrief torches the Jets on a few plays and they shift the coverage to Moncrief instead. But this assumes that Johnson is ready for the challenge and steps up to it. I am not looking to take that chance myself and would sit Andre Johnson this week.

Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders had a decent game for one where his team was never even close to competitive. The good news is he got seven catches in the game last week. This week Murray and the Raiders face the stiff Baltimore Ravens defense. Baltimore only gave up 69 yards rushing last week against the Broncos. This might seem like it is due to the mess that has been the Broncos offensive line, but they were stout last year as well. In the 2014 campaign the Ravens only allowed 88 yards rushing per game and eight touchdowns on the season. This makes me want to put Murray on my bench this week.

TJ Yeldon, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars had 51 rushing yards in his first NFL start. The positives about this are that he got four yards per carry, and that he also caught three passes. This was a game against Carolina, a usually strong defense, but they were missing Star Lotulelei in the middle of that defensive line. This week doesn’t get any easier than last week, squaring off against the Miami Dolphins and their scary defense. The Dolphins did give up a lot of yards in game one of the season, but that was against an actually decent run blocking line of Washington. The Jags line is not that good. I don’t see good things for Yeldon this week and am sitting him in the leagues I own him in.

Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts squares off against the New York Jets this week. Another team with a strong defensive line, the Jets only allowed 104 yards last week to the Browns, but 58 of those yards were given up to the quarterbacks of the browns. That means that the running backs only gained 46 yards. Gore looked old, and actually left the game with cramps. Gore had 8 carries for 31 yards and 2 catches last week. I am not feeling too good about his chances this week and would bench him for a better option.

It feels good to be back. The first week of the season was amazing. Happy to bring you some advice and insights into who to start and sit in your leagues. Check back for more articles in the near future and read some of my other work at socalledfantasyexperts.com and fakepigskin.com. Thanks for reading and good luck in week two!

Auction Values and Strategy

Iconic rock band Van Halen said it best with the classic rock track "Everybody Wants Some" back in 1980. Granted some of you may not have be born yet, so I may be carbon dating myself for this purpose. If you've ever heard the chorus to the relatively ancient tune, after the title line is sung it's followed by David Lee Roth squealing "I want some too!"

 

Image source: newyork.cbslocal.com

When it comes to fantasy football auctions, team managers want value. To which Roth asks, "Baby how 'bout you?"

The song has become a soundtrack for me every fantasy football draft season, and I would rather have it turn out my way than the 80's movie in which it's featured, Better Off Dead. Most consider the auction draft intimidating, and my first season playing fantasy football I agreed. I was invited to play with some former high school buddies that were looking to replace a team manager that had gotten fed up with league politics and quit. Not knowing what I was in for, I proceeded to overpay for players and barely filled out a competitive roster by the time auction was finished. My season was tanked by the choice of over bidding on an oft injured Rashard Mendenhall, then blowing all of my free agent budget on Isaac Redman and a young Jonathan Dwyer; all of whom got injured at some point. It stung so much that I forsook auction drafts altogether for years, also most leagues I was in weren't doing them, until last year.

In this article I'll cover some auction strategy and a few players that could be value plays and help you win in your leagues this season. In any draft, you're not going to enjoy setting your roster every week if you have guys that you don't enjoy rooting for, so it's important to budget your loot accordingly to allow you to fill positions with the studs that you want. A way to do this is to tier your player rankings at each position. Most of you should already be doing this for your snake drafts, the difference being placing dollar amounts on guys instead of their average draft position.

I recommend using an auction value calculator,

then raising the dollar amounts for the players you really want from there, but try to keep it within reason. Obviously spending over a quarter of your budget on one guy means you are going to have to count on some major bargains in the latter part of the auction. Use the cheat sheet as a guideline, keeping in mind other league mates may have the same prices on players that you do, and won't stop bidding until someone gives up. Know when to concede for the greater good of your team, a true squad goal.

Player nomination strategies

A classic auction strategy is to nominate the high ranking players that you don't like as much as everyone else in your league. You increase your odds for getting players by ultimately reducing the number of owners that can bid, because they're either filled at the position or they're low on dough. I've been in draft rooms where owners don't spend a dollar for the first five or so player nominations, while I was throwing loot like it was a strip club. None of that this season. That's what the mocks were for.                                                                                                                                                  

Jeremy Hill went for $1 in one of my leagues last year and was almost the last player nominated, and I of course had spent $25 on Giovanni Bernard. The tip here is to keep your eyes peeled for late nominated players with upside. In my experience these players are handcuff running backs, but can come from any position, including individual defensive players, IDP. There is also a lot of value to be had from players who come into the season injured.

Three value picks for 2015

  

Eli Manning $6 - Absolutely love the bad comedian with cable this year. McAdoo's offense led to a career high in completion percentage last year, and has most of his weapons back. Yes, Reuben Randle included. A favorable schedule make him hard to pass up.

Marvin Jones $1- Back and healthy, Jones could be a major steal if he continues his current progression throughout camp and the preseason.

Victor Cruz $3 - How about a comeback from one of the worst injuries you can possibly have? He could be the first. I believe in him.

Thanks for reading and I hope this gives some insight for your fantasy endeavors. Oh yeah, I didn't get too upset that I missed out on handcuffing Giovanni Bernard with Jeremy Hill. I already had Antonio Brown and some guy at the end of my bench I paid $1 for...Odell Beckham Jr.

This article was written by Ben Walker. Find Ben on Twitter @mrpumamc

Should You Draft Eddie Royal And Julian Edelman

Image source: seattlepi.com

This time of year is an odd one. There are games, but they mean nothing. Over the past few seasons it seems that the preseason has less meaning than it has in the past. Most of the game action features the starters for a bit, then mostly the backups and guys that are trying to make the team playing their faces off. But this year I have noticed a trend that I haven't in the past. Some teams are sitting many of their most important players in a variety of situations. Some have been held out altogether so far, and some have gotten to that point. So how do you proceed with your drafting when you don't know what's going on? Let's try to find out together.

Two players that can have some serious implications for your PPR Fantasy teams are Eddie Royal and Julian Edelman. Both of these players are in positive expectation situations this season. Edleman has been a great PPR receiver for a few years now. Royal has had flashes, but is primed to see more balls in his direction this season than last. Both of these guys are listed as out with injuries, possibly for the rest of the preseason. So should you draft them? Maybe.

One point of consideration is the fact that both of these guys play for teams that have some apparent serious injury concerns at the wide receiver position. Kevin White is out for a large portion of the season, if not all. Alshon Jeffery has an ankle injury. Brandon LaFell is apparently just getting out of a walking boot. The Patriots situation is so dire, they just signed a 37 year old receiver, Reggie Wayne, to a decent money deal.

The Patriots are not known for being particularly forthcoming on their injury situations. There have been some rumors and tweets about what people have seen at their practices. Even the players don't say much. Edelman was asked about the extent and severity of his injury this week, and directed the reporters to talk to Head Coach Bill Belichick.

Image source: chicago.cbslocal.com

Similarly the Bears were coy with the extent of the injury to White earlier this year. They said he had shin splints right until the time at which White had surgery on his stress fractures in his shin bone. So Bears Coach John Fox is not always the most trustworthy of injury consultants. The word right now on Royal is that he is day to day.

My take on the situation is that we are watching two teams protecting two of their remaining healthy offensive assets from the rigors of meaningless games and contact. With already depleted resources, it seems the narrative of these injuries points to making sure that the offense has what top line players are left healthy to open the season.

Jonathan Stewart 2015 Outlook

Jonathan Stewart is entering his eighth season in the NFL in 2015. Spending most of his career thus far sharing a backfield with DeAngelo Williams has really hurt Stewart’s ability to score for Fantasy. Along with the crowded backfield, injuries have sidelined Stewart for 22 games in his career. So why would you want to draft a guy that has this history? Let’s take a look at what lies ahead for him this season.

Image source: tireball.com

Stewart hasn’t been as consistent as you might like to see from a running back. Over his last three seasons Stewart has only scored a quality game in nine of 28 games according to Bob Lung’s consistency guide. Looking at the breakdowns by defense level, Stewart is consistently inconsistent. The best category for consistency broken down by defense for Stewart is at home against good defenses, scoring two of four quality games. Taking into account all other defensive rankings together you get an average of 29% quality games. This does not bode well for the chances for Stewart. Most of this second category of quality games was against the bad and middle of the road defenses that should allow for more scoring to a running back.

Taking a look at the schedule for the Carolina Panthers this season has a bit of good news to it. The Panthers will be facing the second best schedule of run defenses from 2014 rankings. The average rank of the run defenses they will face this season is 19.68. The Panthers will have the luxury of only facing off against three Top 10 run defenses from a season ago. The season opens with a soft landing at Jacksonville. The Texans in Week Two present a more difficult challenge. After that the following two games against the Saints and Bucs will be good match ups. Then a rough match up against the Seahawks leads to a cleaner finish to the season.

The playoff run for the Panthers looks pretty good. Week 14 sees the Falcons coming to town. Week 15 sees Carolina traveling to the already banged up Giants. Week 16 sees the Panthers playing the Falcons for the second time in three weeks. Even though you can expect the Falcons to play tougher than last season under new coach Dan Quinn, they were the 21^st ranked run defense last year, and huge overnight change is unlikely. Finally if you play through week 17, the Buccaneers and their 19^th ranked pass defense last season come to Carolina.

Stewart has an ADP that puts him at the end of the fourth round overall. Going at 47^th, his price puts him in the RB2 or RB3 category. In his same area of the ADP you can find players that I would both be more comfortable with, and some that I would be less comfortable with. Andre Ellington is at 49^th in ADP right behind Stewart. I would probably take Ellington over Stewart myself. On the flip side of that coin, Todd Gurley is going at the 46^th pick in ADP, and I would rather have both Stewart and Ellington over Gurley in a redraft league. If you are picking in this area there are a few other players for positions other than running back that I would take over Stewart here.

Another consideration that you must have is the fact that Stewart will have a hard time getting red zone touches. Not only is Cam Newton a touchdown vulture up close, but the Panthers have a history of using Mike Tolbert when they get in close. On top of those two taking away red zone touches, the Panthers have taken on the basketball team mentality for their wide receivers. Now having two very tall receivers, and Greg Olsen who is also tall, the red zone is a crowded place for Carolina.

One thing to note for sure is that if you take Jonathan Stewart for your 2015 Fantasy team, you need to grab Cameron Artis-Payne as a backup. With Stewart being the poster child for getting injured over his career, his back up is an important asset. The schedule is so good that the next man up might have a shot at relevance as well.

Earlier this offseason I was all aboard the Stewart train. As we get closer to the season, and I take a closer look at both where his ADP is settling in at, and his overall situation, I have a hard time finding myself wanting to take Stewart on my team this season. If available I would rather take another running back or wide out at the same spot and wait for a Giovanni Bernard type in round five.

Mocking the first overall pick in a 12 team PPR draft

The first overall pick has been something that I have an amazingly large amount of experience with getting in my randomly selected fantasy drafts. I get it a lot. I hate it. I hate having one pick in the first 23. The stress and pressure of who to take, and not wanting to pick the guy who is going to bust, there's always one, is not something I want to deal with. But someone has to have the top pick. So let's take a look at the scenario I used from my mock draft on the fantasypros.com mock draft simulator.

I have put a fair amount of time into my strategy of who I would take at number one.

I looked at the four usual suspects and many aspects of their pros and cons in an article I wrote on socalledfantasyexperts.com. As I discussed in that article, the LeVeon Bell suspension makes me not want to take him. I don’t like the situation for Jamaal Charles, and Eddie Lacy has a heck of a tough schedule in my opinion this season. So this left me at Adrian Peterson. So for the purposes of this mock draft I took Peterson to line up with my pick.

Now since then I have had a monumental shift in my thought process on my favorite back this year. I am willing to take a gamble on a guy that I believe has all of the things I value for a top running back. With the fifth easiest schedule of run defenses from last year, a much tougher pass defense schedule, a new regime that likes to run and uses a bell cow running back, I am willing to gamble on CJ Anderson to be the top running back for the 2015 season. Give me the first pick in a real draft, or redoing this mock, and I take him every time.

So now that I’m off my soapbox, we can resume a look at this mock draft I did. At pick 24 there is surprisingly no quarterbacks off the board. The best running backs available are Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, and Andre Ellington. The best wide receivers available are Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, TY Hilton, and Brandin Cooks. Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce are both still available, but this is way too early for me for them. I have pretty much fallen in love with Mike Evans this year.

His situation is great.

He has a quarterback that is willing to toss the ball up. He is very tall. His schedule is extremely favorable for passing. And last but not least, he was amazing with no talent at the quarterback position last year. I can’t think of a guy I want more on this board, so Evans is my guy.

Pick 25 in this mock is the spot that is a little weird for me.

I don’t hate taking Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck, I prefer Luck. If you like Graham and want him, this is your spot, he won’t be available at the next pick. It is likely that the top 20 running backs and receivers will be picked clean the next time through, so you need to make your pick here based on that info. I am a believer that your second running back can be cobbled together from round four, five, or six picks. So we already have a top running back and a top receiver on our roster. Because this is a PPR league I want to take a good volume receiver. I like Brandin Cooks of the receivers left on the board. Cooks was on pace for a high volume last year, and this year there are more targets to spread around from missing components from last season.

At the end of the fourth round we find that

much to our good fortune Alfred Morris and Latavius Murray have fallen to us. There is only one Top 20 wide receiver left on the board in Keenan Allen. Peyton Manning is the best quarterback left, as Luck, Rodgers, and Russell Wilson are all off the board. Drew Brees is also available in this spot. I like to stack a quarterback and a receiver, and if we didn’t need some running backs for this team I would probably take one of the quarterbacks, and lean toward Brees. But alas, we have found that two of the Top 20 running backs have fallen to us, so it makes our 48^th and 49^th overall picks pretty simple ones. Alfred and Latavius, welcome aboard.

When the end of the sixth round finds us,

there are now seven quarterbacks off the board. Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, and Ryan Tannehill are the best four on the board. Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen are gone. The best tight end left is Martellus Bennett. At running back LeGarrette Blount has found his way to this spot in the draft. He is joined by Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen, and Joique Bell. At wide receiver we find Eric Decker, Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Mike Wallace on the board.

I had a very hard time making a decision at this spot.

I sat with my finger over the mouse ready to click draft on Blount, but I just couldn’t do it. I hate having Patriots running backs on my team. I decided to go ahead and select Eric Decker, who I wrote about as a late round sleeper. Decker is a target of mine in middle rounds, and oddly this week I think his stock rose with Geno Smith being out and Ryan Fitzpatrick taking over as the starter.

With the 73^rd pick I decided to take a quarterback.

Of the players left I have two players to pick from. Either I am taking Matt Ryan, or I am taking Eli Manning. I like both of these players for the 2015 season, in fact writingabout Eli earlier this off season. The schedules for both teams are good for passing, they won’t face the best of passing defenses from last year. For me it comes down to preference and the rest of the situation. The Falcons have two proven wide receivers. Julio Jones and Roddy White are both players I wrote about this season. They have a history of being great players. The Giants have Odell Beckham Jr. who was phenomenal last year, but is a second year guy and not proven yet. Along with Odell we have Victor Cruz who is returning from a torn patellar tendon. This is not an easy injury to return from, and even with all reports pointing to good things, nobody knows how Cruz will play this year. When you consider these factors, Matt Ryan is my guy.

During round seven there was a run on tight ends.

In round eight a run on running backs goes down. I find the same wide receivers that were available previously and some tight ends I am not interested in at this spot in the draft. Time for the trick play that I have been hearing about on many podcasts and reading about on twitter a lot. Arian Foster is sitting there. At the end of round eight you should already have a good slate of starters. Our team here is only missing a tight end, but with the top 11 off the board, we aren’t in a rush anymore. So Foster is the perfect lottery ticket at the end of the eighth. With incomplete information about his injury and the timeline currently, Foster might find himself back by the second week of the season. If you get him at any point near then for the rest of the season, you can assume you should be the gold standard of your league.

The next pick is a little more difficult for me.

I only have three wide receivers on my squad so far. I am usually a fan of loading up on receivers, but there is still some great running back talent on the board. Isaiah Crowell is on the board, and if he is the guy who is starting in Cleveland, it’s a great spot for him. They are a bad team, which has a great offensive line, and will win by running and playing defense. Devonta Freeman is still on the board. If he can get healthy and stay that way, he has the chance to be the starting back in Atlanta. Reggie Bush is on the board, and as I wrote here, Bush can be a great value play in PPR leagues. I decided to take Crowell here, gambling that he is eventually going to win this job. I would be okay with any of these backs, but would take them in the following order: Crowell, Freeman, Bush as it stands today. With all of the running back talent I have, if one of the later round guys I drafted hits, or if Foster comes back quickly, I could trade a running back to upgrade my wide receiver corps.

As we hit the end of Round 10, we find a lot of wide receivers on the board.

Since our last pick only one came off the board. We need a receiver and a tight end. The running backs on the board don’t make me want to draft them, especially since this team is stocked well. Kyle Rudolph is going to be our guy here. Minnesota faces the fourth best schedule for tight ends based on Fantasy points allowed to tight ends. With Teddy Bridgewater in his second year, and performing well at the end of last season, if Rudolph can stay healthy, he is set up well for this season.

Our next pick needs to be a wide receiver. We lack depth there and need to find a value guy with a high ceiling. I want to take a guy that has a lot of upside. The receivers available are Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson, Marques Colston, and Nelson Agholor. I decided to take Agholor here. If he is ready to play this season, the volume he will see in the Philadelphia offense will make him a great value for the 11^th round.

We have now found the point in the draft where I am snatching up my value wide receivers.

I find Pierre Garcon sitting there at the end of round 12. As I wrote in my late round PPR values article, I love Garcon this year. If Robert Griffin III can get it together this year, I think Garcon can be a huge value. If you have been reading the rest of my mock draft articles, the 11 pick, and the 12 pick, you will notice that I like to take Garcon late. I’m hitching my wagon to him this year.

I grab John Brown with my pick at the start of Round 13. I like Brown over Floyd currently seeing as he didn’t just have surgery to repair a compound dislocation. I like to err on the side of the guy who has skills and didn’t just have hand surgery.

I take Stephen Gostkowski and the Ravens defense in rounds 14 and round 15. I took the top kicker and the defenses were decimated by the time I made my pick. I would likely stream a defense for the year based on the matchups.

So my strategy from the one hole was different than it was from the late first round spots. I was able to amass a huge amount of starting running back talent, and still have a few great wide receivers. I feel that this team ended up pretty balanced, and has the chance to have great expendable parts to possibly use to trade up to improve some positions later.

Mocking the 11 pick in a 12 team league

Mock drafting is a very important part of the preseason regimen that a Fantasy player should go through. I have already completed around 50 mock drafts this season. The process has been made much faster this season after I found the Mock Draft Simulator I wrote about here. Instead of taking an hour, the simulator takes the average draft positions rankings, and simulates a draft for you. You can pick various settings for the rosters and league size, making it a great tool for all kinds of leagues. An upgrade to the pro level on fantasy pros lets you draft against a higher level setting, making your draft game even better.

Image source: greeleytribune.com

Drafting from all the different positions in the draft helps you discover the players that will be available at your picks, and prepares you for your draft.

Knowing the likely rounds you need to take the players you are interested in allows you to put together a solid plan to draft the team you want.

For the first in this series I have decided to pick from the 11 spot. The league setting is a 12 team PPR with two wide receivers, two running backs, and a flex.

So let’s take a look at the mock draft from pick 11.

When my first round pick came up I had some choices. There were some great players still available. Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., Demaryius Thomas, Arian Foster, and CJ Anderson were all available. With only one player in between my first and second picks my selection process is skewed by the talent left at wide receiver. If I take a second tier high level running back there will still be at least one wide out that I would be happy to have on my team when my pick at 14 comes back to me. With only two running backs left that I am interested at this point in the draft, I would not be guaranteed one of them. So my selection was Foster. I wouldn’t fault you for taking Anderson, but as I wrote about Foster earlier this year, I like him a lot this season.

This was written before the injury to Foster in the preseason. That injury makes it imperative in my opinion that you would take Anderson at this spot. He is the best running back left and could be the end of a tier at the position. There will still be the same receivers behind this pick, but you have by far taken the best running back left.

As it turned out

the picks at 12 and 13 were Beckham and Jones, leaving me to take Demaryius Thomas at pick 14. This sets up the situation I am favoring this season in my leagues. In the past I have favored a zero running back approach to PPR leagues, but this year I am leaning more toward taking a running back if the right guy is available. In this draft I now have a great running back and an elite wide receiver to start my draft out. I know that when it gets back to me at the end of round three none of the elite wide receivers or running backs will be left.

When it does come my turn at pick 35

there were still some decent players available. For running backs Lamar Miller, Alfred Morris, Jonathan Stewart were all there to be selected. At wide receiver the available players were Brandin Cooks, Emmanuel Sanders, Kelvin Benjamin, and Julian Edelman. At this point in the draft quarterback can also be a consideration to me, and Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson were available. I am not a huge fan of Miller this year, Morris is not a great back in PPR formats because he doesn’t catch passes, and Stewart has a history of injury so I am not a huge fan of any of these players. If I didn’t already have Thomas as one of my receivers I might take Sanders, but I don’t want two receivers from the same team. With a lot of targets available in the New Orleans offense and a belief that Cooks will be getting his fair share of them, I selected him. Edelman would be a solid choice in a PPR format, but the possibility of Tom Brady missing four games sours me on him at this spot in the draft.

The round four pick, 38 overall left me in a similar spot. I am confident that a quarterback that can touch the elite level will not be around at the end of round five. I have two great wide receivers already so taking a guy I am not sure about in Edelman, and a guy who is unlikely to have the same level of targets and has drop issues in Benjamin is not on my radar. So I decide to do something I don’t usually do and take Peyton. This allows me to stack my elite wide receiver and his quarterback. As I wrote here, I like to stack an elite target and the guy throwing him the ball when it is possible. This satisfies my desire there.

By the time my pick in round five comes around,

59 overall, all of the Top 20 running backs and wide receivers were off the board. Russell Wilson has fallen to this spot, a slight miscalculation on my part, but I’m still happy with Peyton. The best available players on the board at running back are Giovanni Bernard, Carlos Hyde, Latavius Murray, and TJ Yeldon. Travis Kelce and Greg Olson are both available at tight end, but I am not a fan of early tight ends. Yeldon is my pick here. I am gambling on a rookie, but he is a rookie that has the job pretty well locked up. I have recently read some good reports on Yeldon and how well he has picked up the offense. If he can lock down pass blocking, he has a chance to be a three down back.

For my pick at 62 overall Carlos Hyde and Travis Kelce have now come off the board. Latavius Murray and Giovanni Bernard are still available at running back. I am not ready to go with another gamble on a guy who is unproven at running back and is on a team that will likely be trailing a lot. With Roy Helu on the roster, the Raiders have a pass catching back not named Latavius. I am still not a fan of Bernard at this spot so I switch up my thinking a bit. Greg Olson is the fourth ranked tight end on the blended rankings, and since I already have a fairly well rounded setup of starters, I decided to take Olson at this spot. My belief is that in later rounds I can find a few guys to platoon at my flex spot, but I now have a lineup that I am willing to run out every week of the season and take my chances with.

Between rounds six and seven a quarterback run position happens.

This is important to note because this is a likely spot that if you don’t have a quarterback, it’s time to get your man. Since I already do, that allows players to fall to me that were available previously. When my pick at 83 overall comes up, Giovanni Bernard is still on the board. Even though I am not a fan of him this season, as I wrote earlier, every player will have a place in a draft where the value is better than the pick. Bernard will be a great flex player in a PPR league, so he is my pick at 83.

When it comes back around in the eighth round at pick 86 overall there are still some decent values on the board. Rashad Jennings, Joique Bell, LeGarrette Blount are the best running backs on the board. Eric Decker and Larry Fitzgerald are the top receivers left for the taking. Seeing as I have a rookie and a guy I don’t believe in this year on my squad already, I decide to take Joique bell to bolster my running back depth. I don’t like to take Patriots backs since you never know what they are going to do, and Jennings has a hard time staying healthy, so Joique is my guy.

A stoke of good fortune finds me when it comes back to me at 107 and 110.

We find that both Decker and Fitzgerald have fallen to me. These are guys that in the later rounds I am a fan of getting on my teams. I don’t believe in Geno Smith as an NFL quarterback. I think that at some point this season he will be on the bench and Ryan Fitzpatrick gives Decker a lot of opportunity. Fitzpatrick is a decent NFL quarterback with the ability to run a good offense. He is not a top level quarterback, but he is a veteran who knows what he is doing. Fitzgerald is a bit more of a flier than I think Decker is. But in the 10^th round he is a good value. If Carson Palmer can stay healthy this season, Fitzgerald should have better numbers than he did with the menagerie of terrible quarterbacks the Cardinals had last year. As my fourth wide out I could do worse.

When my pick comes up in round 11,

131 overall, I found a lot of late round values at the wide receiver spot. Brandon LaFell, Steve Smith, Anquon Boldin, Pierre Garcon, Torrey Smith, and Marques Colston are available. Not much left in the running back bin, so I am now rolling with what I have at running back and am taking the receivers due to their value this late in the draft. As I wrote previously about Boldin, I like him as a late round guy this season.

Pick 134 in the 12^th round has me looking at two guys. Pierre Garcon and Marques Colston are my favorite picks left on the board. I love both of these guys in the 12^th round this year. I wrote about Garcon in my late round ppr values article this week. I see him as a player with big potential to bounce back this season if he can get some consistent play from the quarterback position. I like Colston late this year too for the same reasons I like Cooks. But therein lies the problem. Having Cooks already on my team makes me not want to draft Colston. If Cooks isn’t already on my roster I would err on the side of the better quarterback situation and snatch up Colston. So Garcon is my guy.

At pick 155 overall in round 13 I pull a fast one.

I sneak in and take the defense I am targeting this year. The Jets are ranked 11^th this season by the fantasy pros consensus rankings. To me this is a huge undervaluing of their defense. They have a great front line. Yes it would be better if Sheldon Richardson didn’t keep getting himself in trouble, but they will still have a solid front four. The glaring hole they had last year was at cornerback, and they addressed that in a big way this season. Adding Darrell Revis and Antonio Cromartie to their defensive backfield will bolster their defense and will likely decrease their points allowed, while increasing their turnovers forced. I don’t want to miss out on them, so I take them a little earlier than most would draft a D/ST.

At pick 158 overall, the second in the 14^th round I decide to take the top ranked kicker as none of them are off the board yet. This allows me to have the best kicker over the past few years, and locks me in to a kicker I will be happy to run out there for the entire season. I can snipe the top guy and know that most of the other teams are only taking defense and kickers for the rest of the draft, so I can get most of the skill position players that are left on the board with my final pick. You can feel free to take a kicker based on any factor you see fit. Some like a kicker that plays indoors, some like the Denver kicker to add that distance from their thin air. I usually go with Stephen Gostkowski in this position. He’s good. He’s consistent. He’s my pick in round 14.

With my last pick, 179 overall, at the end of the 15^th round it is time for a flier.

The best available players on the board are Kendall Wright, John Brown, Larry Donnell, Percy Harvin, Reuben Randle, Kenny Stills, Charles Clay, and Devante Parker. With the Justin Hunter situation in Tennessee probably keeping him out, you can’t really stab people, I decided to take Wright. He is the highest ranked, has the best situation, and plays for a bad team that is likely to throw a lot this year. I could also take Davante Parker in this spot, but I think he will be available a few weeks down the line on waivers when his situation becomes clearer. By that time you might be able to easily discard one or more of your current roster to make room for him as he rounds into playing shape.

A feature I like about the mock draft simulator is that it will give you a rating for your starters, bench, and overall team. My starters were the top ranked in the league for this draft. My bench was only the fifth best according to their metrics, but I would not be planning to use my bench a lot. I also have a fair amount of receivers that I believe have a good chance for resurgent production this year if the chips can fall right for them. I have great wide receiver depth on this team, and if one or two of them can hit, I might have some good trade chips for upgrading at another spot in my lineup.

So we reach the end of the first installment of this look at mock drafting. I hope this article has served to help you in your planning and preparation for your drafts this season. Look for my articles on other draft pick spots in the near future.

Fantasy Pros Mock Draft Simulator

I firmly believe in the power of the mock draft. This time of year values of players fluctuate a lot. Mock drafting is a way to gauge values of players for the upcoming season. Unless you already know your draft pick spot, I highly recommend trying mocks from all of the different spots in the draft. The Fantasy Pros mock draft simulator is a great way to do this.
A note for mobile users: Click the link at the bottom of the page for the web version to see the banners. 

All the sites that host Fantasy leagues have mock draft lobbies. some of them are rigid, and won't necessarily meet your needs for league size and rules. Then when you get into the lobby, you often find people that stick around for the first pick, and then either time out or just auto pick the whole draft. This is annoying and frustrating. Also the time it takes for each person to make a pick can be tedious.

Fantasy Pros has solved many of these problems with their mock draft simulator. The mock draft simulator takes the blended rankings of many of the top Fantasy analysts and sites and allows you to do a mock draft based on them. You can customize these mock drafts to many different settings for league size, scoring, positions, IDP, skill level of other drafters, and you can select any pick in the draft order. A mock draft on the simulator takes about five minutes to complete. How is it so fast? As soon as you make your selection, the simulator populates all the picks between yours. This allows you to gather a lot of data in a short amount of time.

The speed with which you can complete a mock draft on the simulator allows you to quickly try out all the draft spots in the order, and will let you try out different strategies like zero RB and taking slightly unorthodox picks early in your draft. It will let you see how some players might fall in your real drafts, and give you a pretty good idea what kind of team you can build from any position in the draft. I myself have already done about 40 mock drafts this year. I have tried out strategies like taking three Green Bay Packers with my first three picks, Gronking my first round pick, and not drafting a quarterback until literally my last pick, I ended up with Teddy Bridgewater.

So give the banner at the top, or the box on the side a click and get a mock draft started today.

Danny Woodhead 2015 Late Round Running Back

Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego Chargers

is back this season after breaking his leg in September of the 2014 season. Woodhead was a big part of the chargers offense in the 2013 season. A sneaky value play that season, Woodhead is on my list of late round value guys you can look to plug in as a platoon at your running back or flex spots this season.

Image source: nypost.com

Taking a look at the Average Draft Position (ADP) to find value players to take in a PPR league is a good preseason practice. Sure leagues might play out a little differently, but overall I have found that the values are pretty similar. Some of that can be attributed to the rankings on a  league site influencing the players that show available at the nearby picks. So knowing the players and where they tend to go in drafts gives owners a head start over their opponents in draft strategy.

This is where we find Woodhead. With an ADP of 107 according to fantasypros.com PPR rankings, Woodhead is a good addition to a Fantasy team for a multitude of purposes. He can be used as a bye week fill in for the RB2 or flex positions. If  punting on the RB2 spot in favor of either a heavy early wide receiver draft, or take an elite quarterback or tight end in the early rounds, then Woodhead can be immensely valuable.

Taking a look at his 2013 numbers with the Chargers, 

we find that Woodhead was a very productive guy in PPR formats. He had over 1000 yards combined, 429 rushing and 605 receiving. Along with his solid yardage statistics, Woodhead also scored eight total touchdowns during the 2013 season, two rushing and six receiving. He made his hay in long yardage situations and in the red zone. On plays where the Chargers had 10 or more yards to go, Woodhead gained 625 of his yards. In the red zone he had 18 rushes, scoring on two of those. But his big key to the red zone offense for San Diego was his receiving in the red zone. In 2013 he caught 19 passes in the red zone, scoring on five of them. That is excellent efficiency, scoring on about one of every four red zone passes he caught.

The schedule for the Chargers breaks in two completely different directions. The run defenses they will face are by far better than the pass defenses. The average run defense the Chargers will face is 17.68, the ninth easiest schedule in the league. They will only face five Top 10 run defenses. The pass defenses on the slate this season are much harder. The schedule is ranked 27^th overall, with an average of 13.75. Eight Top 10 pass defenses from last season await them. Traditionally Woodhead has played well against lower ranked defenses.

The season opens with a tough game at home against Detroit, the top run defense last year, and 13^th against the pass, but it gets better from there. After Week 1, the Chargers face bottom half run defenses in five of the next six games. Fantasy playoff time finds the schedule breaking very well for the Chargers running game. In Week 14 the Chiefs stout pass defense and 28^th ranked run defense host San Diego. Week 15 finds the Chargers hosting the long traveling, pass defending, and 24^th ranked run defending Miami Dolphins. In many leagues championship games, the Chargers travel to Oakland and face their 22^nd ranked run defense and 16^th ranked pass defense. If the playoffs play to Week 17, a difficult divisional road match up awaits the Chargers in Denver. Denver sported the number two run defense and the number nine pass defense a year ago.

With the fact that Woodhead is returning from an injury

Fantasy players will definitely want to keep an eye on him in training camp and preseason games to make sure that he is healthy and still able to play. The Chargers also drafted Melvin Gordon, a solid pass catching back, who may be able to keep Woodhead at bay if he can pass block well. Branden Oliver showed well as the Chargers running back last year in the absence of Woodhead for a few games, so his usage and position on the depth chart should also be monitored.

A possible boon for Woodhead might be found in the suspension of Antonio Gates. With gates out for the first four games of the season, San Diego will be without one of their red zone targets. This may serve to boost the usage of Woodhead in the red zone, leaving his Fantasy owners to reap the benefits.

If Woodhead can win his spot back as the long yardage, third down, and red zone back for San Diego, he might be a player that can help fantasy owners win a championship in the 2015 season. His late round ADP makes him an easily attainable resource for any team. 

Jimmy Graham 2015 Outlook

Image source reddit.com

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks has been one of the Top 2 tight ends in fantasy football over the last four seasons. The off season trade to the Seahawks has made some want to shy away from Graham, but I’m advocating that he should remain a high round draft pick for your teams. 

His rookie season he didn’t get much work, but since then he has averaged 88 catches per year, 1099 yards per season, and 11.5 touchdowns.

Graham has been the most consistent TE over the last three seasons 

according to Bob Lung’s consistency rankings. Find Bob's work at ffconsistency.com. Graham has had a total of 38 quality games over that span. Last season, Graham had 11 quality games of his 16 for a consistency percentage of 69. Along with his great quality games numbers, he is the only TE that has had double digit quality games in each of the past three seasons. In 2014 he had the second highest point total for tight ends at 223.9 points for a PPR league.

Graham has a great schedule ahead of him for the 2015 season.

Ranking the seventh easiest, he will only face off against three Top 10 defenses against the TE position. The average rank of the defense he will face is 17.93. The season begins with the only Top 5 defense in the St. Louis Rams that the Seahawks will face. After that game the Seahawks will not face off against another Top 10 team until week 15.

The playoff run for Graham does feature three of the most difficult match ups he will face in 2015. Week 14 has him facing off against the 14^th best defense in the Ravens. The week 15 match up gets a little harder when they face off against the 10^th ranked defense against TE in the Browns. Week 16 will have Graham meeting the Rams for the second time of the season. If your leagues play all 17 weeks of the season, a great finale awaits you in the 29^th ranked Arizona Cardinals.

The average draft position (ADP) for Graham seems a bit high,

but if you draft round one and two well, you can have a guy that is in the elite ranks of TE. According to the ADP on fantasypros.com, Graham can be had at the 26^th overall pick in a standard league, and 29^th overall pick in PPR leagues. Assuming you can draft one to two elite top tier players in the RB or WR categories, Graham allows you a clear advantage over all the other TE except Rob Gronkowski.

As we saw in the Super Bowl last year, the Seahawks need a big, physical player in the red zone. Graham at 6’7 and 260 pounds can definitely provide them this. His basketball background allows him to box out smaller players and dominate the red zone. Third down is another situation where it is likely that Graham will be used, and useful to the Hawks. Getting the tough yards to keep drives alive is another spot it is easy to imagine Graham seeing a lot of usage.

While it is fairly certain that the years of 125 to 145 targets are now behind him, I can see the efficiency of the targets he will get being great. The Seahawks have a three headed monster in the read option and play action plays that they will run. Defenses will have to respect Marshawn Lynch and his running ability. In addition, many defensive units will need to keep a spy on Russell Wilson. This will likely leave a lot of open space in the middle of the field for the third head of this monster to operate.

Trading for Graham in the off season and taking on his contract, which pays him $10 million dollars a year, is another sign to me that he will remain a key offensive weapon. That is a lot of money to pay a player and not make him a big part of your offensive and game plans. If you take a look at the games in which Percy Harvin actually saw the field for the Seahawks in his time in Seattle, they have been known to manufacture ways to get the ball to players that they feel can have big upside and be mismatches for the opposition.

So for these reasons I believe that the schedule outlook for Jimmy Graham in 2015 is in great shape. His usage, needs of the team, consistency, and ability to create mismatches with defenders should all set him up to keep scoring you copious amounts of points in your Fantasy Football games this year.

Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard 2015 Schedule Outlook

I listen to a lot of podcasts about fantasy football. I read a lot of tweets and articles. Recently I have heard a lot of industry folks singing the praises of both of the Bengals running backs. I'm here to give you Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard 2015 schedule outlook.

Image source: Creative Commons Fletcher45005

Cincinnati is facing the third toughest run defense opposition in the league in the 2015 season. Averaging the ranks of the run defenses they will face gives you an average of the 13.75. On top of that, the Bengals have 8 weeks of facing opponents that were in the top 10 run defenses from last season. That makes for a brutal season of tough grinding to gain yards on the ground.

The first 4 weeks of the season are good for Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard's 2015 schedule outlook, and then it quickly goes downhill after that. The Raiders, Chargers, and Chiefs are 3 of their first 4 opponents, and judging by last seasons numbers, those could set up nicely for the duo. After those first 4 games the only team that the Bengals will face in the rest of the season that was ranked worse than 14th in rushing yards allowed last season is their 2 division games against the Browns.

Last season Hill was somewhat streaky. According to ffconsistency.com, Hill had a consistency rating of 63%, meaning he scored 11 points in a PPR format. Of his 1124 rushing yards, 701 of them came in only 5 weeks of the season. That is a whopping 62% of his yards in only 5 weeks. Add to that the fact that Bernard missed 3 games in which Hill racked up 361 of his yards as the only real running threat, and was force fed the ball 2 of those 3 weeks. Hill did catch a few passes, but the yardage and PPR points were negligible.

Bernard was similarly streaky. His consistency rating from ffconsistency.com was 62%. Gio rushed for 680 yards last season, and caught 43 passes for 349 yards. His best receiving games were against the lower tier pass defenses. The upcoming slate of pass defenses will be difficult for the Bengals this season, and average of 14.06 ranked pass defense and also 8 top 10 opponents. He also missed 3 games with injuries last season. Now sure, injuries can't be predicted, but given his smaller frame, they can be more likely.

Add to the mix that the passing game is in for a rough season in 2015 as well. As i told you in my article on quarterbacks, Andy Dalton and the Bengals passing game have a lower third schedule of passing defenses. The combination of strong defenses all around might leave a little space for Hill and Bernard to have a few good weeks, but you can do better for your fantasy teams than what I think they will offer you this year.

Given Jeremy Hill and Goivanni Bernard's 2015 schedule outlook, and the time share in the backfield, I cannot justify the prices you will have to pay. Currently the average draft position on myfantasyleague.com is 18 for Hill, and 46 for Bernard. Bernard is definitely a slightly better value at those prices, but his workload figures to be less than Hill, and I think I would rather take a player like Jonathan Stewart, Latavius Murray, or even Frank Gore in that same spot in the draft.

Taking A Good Look At QB: Guys I Don't Want On My Team

In my last article I wrote about some quarterbacks that I was interested in having on my team for the upcoming season based on their consistent play and 2015 schedules. So it seems obvious that I should take a look at the other side of that equation as well. Here is a look at some quarterbacks I don't want to draft for the upcoming season.

Image source hngn.com

Jay Cutler (CHI) has had an up and down career. The early off season chatter had rumors of Cutler on the trading block or being cut, but his contract is a huge handcuff for the Bears. Cutler has been an inconsistent player, although he was 67% consistent last season according to the statistics of ffconsistency.com. The loss of Brandon Marshall, who didn't do much last season due to injuries, could loom large for Cutler and the Bears in 2015. Alshon Jeffery is a fine player, and can likely be a great number 1 receiver, but that is still to be proven. Eddie Royal was brought in this year and has familiarity with the offense and Cutler, but he has often been a flash in the pan type of fantasy option.

The biggest hurdle for the Bears passing game this year is a brutal schedule. They have a tie for the worst upcoming schedule in the league against the pass. The average rank of the pass defenses the bears will face in 2015 is 12.31. In addition they will play against a whopping 9 top 10 pass defenses from a season ago. In recent years the offensive line has not been great, and word has been that they are using a rookie at left tackle. It could be a long season for Da Bears, Cutler, and his owners in fantasy.

Image source: nypost.com

Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) is a trendy name in fantasy right now. After being the 5th highest scoring

quarterback in 2014, many people are touting him for the 2015 season. Scoring a 56% consistency in 2014, Roethlisberger was 9th in consistency. But digging a little bit deeper into his numbers, there emerges some troubling trends for his play.

In 2015 the Steelers will play the 29th ranked schedule of pass defenses, with an average rank of 13.5. Of the Steelers 16 games, 7 will be played against top 10 defenses from a year ago. Over the last 3 seasons Big Ben has not fared well against the top level defenses he has faced. In 14 games played against top 10 defenses over that span he has only put up quality games in 5, for an average of about 36%. Let us also recall that 12 of his 32 touchdowns from a season ago came in just 2 games. As much as I love Antonio Brown, I can't love Ben this year.

Image source: footbasket.com

Phillip Rivers (SD) makes the list of quarterbacks I have no interest in for the 2015 season as well. Having just a 50% consistency rating last 2 seasons, and a dismal 25% in 2012, he is not the model of efficiency for your fantasy roster. Oddly he does seem to play better on the road against top defenses than at home. Against average defenses (between 11 and 22) he is an abysmal 1 quality game in 14 tries.

The upcoming season will see the Chargers take on the 27th hardest pass defense lineup, averaging 13.75 overall. Of the defenses they will face, 8 of them were ranked in the top 10 last year. With an aging tight end and number 2 receiver, a lot will be left on the shoulders of Keenan Allen, who had a disappointing sophomore season. I'm passing on Rivers this season.

Image source: enefel.com

Matthew Stafford (DET) has been a guy I targeted in my leagues in the past. Throwing to one of the

best wide receivers in the game is a good thing for your fantasy quarterback. But Calvin Johnson had trouble staying healthy last year, and is losing favor in the fantasy community. A healthy Johnson could bounce back this season, but I don't think I will be taking a chance on Stafford in 2015.

The Lions face a pretty tough schedule in the upcoming year, averaging a rank of 14.68 they have the 23rd toughest pass defense schedule. Add to that the fact that they will face 9 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago and it is a tough road this year for Detroit. Stafford only scored 237 fantasy points in ESPN leagues last year, making him tied for 15th. In his previous 2 season he was a pretty consistent quarterback, 75% in 2012, and 69% in 2013, but his 50% in 2014 shows a trend in the wrong direction. I'm leaving him to the masses this year.

Image source: usatoday.com

Andy Dalton (CIN) had a brutal year in 2014. It didn't help that he was without much of a wide receiver target for a large portion of the year. With basically 1 NFL level talent for some games catching his passes, Dalton was only 38% consistent last season. His overall consistency numbers over the 2 previous seasons were only 56%. Dalton only scored 210 fantasy points in 2014, and that includes 4 rushing touchdowns that I wouldn't count on again in 2015.

The Bengals face a tough schedule coming up this year. Coming in at the 24th hardest pass defense schedule faced, averaging a rank of 14.06, it isn't going to be easy. Dalton will run into 8 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. Dalton has fared well on the road against top defenses in the past, but not as well at home, and plays inconsistently against even the lower tier defenses. After being the 18th ranked quarterback in fantasy points last season, I can't say I want anything to do with Dalton for the upcoming year.

Hopefully this has shed some light on the other side of the fantasy quarterback. Making educated decisions on which guys to get, and which guys to platoon will lead you to success in your leagues in 2015. Look for more to come on running backs, receivers, and tight ends in the near future.

Schedules That Set Up Well

I entered a conversation on twitter about a month back about Julio Jones. My input was similar to my recent article where I lauded Jones for his talents, and also noted that his schedule was set up for him to be huge this season. A participant in this conversation said you can't rely on schedule strength from last year. Why not? Don't we need a reason to draft guys? If you see something that puts one player above others in your mind, is it not valid? This inspired me to take a look at some teams that have favorable schedules for the 2015 season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the 28th ranked schedule. Their opponents in 2015 were a combined 108-146-2, a winning percentage of .425. When you look just a bit deeper you find that the Bucs are providing Jameis Winston a lovely soft landing spot. The Tampa Bay passing offense will face defenses that average the 22nd ranked pass defense last season. They will not face any of the top 10 pass defenses from last season; in fact only playing 4 games against teams inside the top 15 last year. This should offer bountiful opportunities to Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, and if he can stay healthy Austin Sefarian-Jenkins.
The running game for Tampa is similarly facing a plus situation. The average rank of their opponents run defense is 19.6, and they face only 2 top 10 run defenses. I am not quite sure what will happen with the running back depth chart, but keep a watch on their reports, and as a guy comes to the front of the pack, targeting him in your drafts might be a good idea.

The Dallas Cowboys have the 24th ranked schedule in the league for 2015. Their opponents record for 2014 was 119-136-1 for a win percentage of .467. Losing DeMarco Murray could be a big blow to their running game with no clear successor, but their line is just so good. Dallas will only face 3 top 10 run defenses through the entire season and the average rank of their opponents defenses is 17. Combined with the talent of their line, that should set up whoever wins the job as feature back for the Cowboys pretty well.
The passing game took a step back last season, but might be forced to step forward again this season. If Dallas cannot find a back to be successful behind their top level offensive line, they might need to rely on Tony Romo and the passing game. Their opponents defenses won't be too terrible to face off against, averaging a rank of 18th against the pass. The Cowboys will only face 4 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. Obviously Dez Bryant is always a great selection at receiver. We often hear of the breakout 3rd season for a wide receiver, and we might see that this year from Terrance Williams. He scored 8 touchdowns last year on only 37 catches. I would only look at him as a late round guy who has some upside potential. If he can be more consistent you may get some value from him.

The Philadelphia Eagles have the23rd ranked schedule for the 2015 season. Their opponents record for 2014 was 121-134-1, a win percentage of .475. The addition of DeMarco Murray to the backfield running behind a top tier offensive line from last season should excite people. The Average Run Defense the Eagles will face this season is 15.5, and they will only face 5 top 10 teams from last season. Ryan Mathews is a slightly confounding component to the Philadelphia backfield, but it seems likely that DeMarco will get the bulk of the carries.
The passing game is set up even better for the Eagles this season. The average of pass defenses from last season the Eagles will face this year is 19.62, and they will only face 2 top 10 pass defenses from last season. In my opinion this should push Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, and Nelson Agholor up your boards a bit. The quarterback situation in Philly is still murky, as Mark Sanchez ended last season with the starting job, but the eagles brought in Sam Bradford, who was still injured after tearing his ACL last season with the Rams. Whichever guy wins this job just might be worth a late round pick to stash just in case.

Coming soon FantasyFootballFTW will be doing a more in depth breakdown of the schedule numbers for each team, both good and bad.