Jonathan Stewart 2015 Outlook

Jonathan Stewart is entering his eighth season in the NFL in 2015. Spending most of his career thus far sharing a backfield with DeAngelo Williams has really hurt Stewart’s ability to score for Fantasy. Along with the crowded backfield, injuries have sidelined Stewart for 22 games in his career. So why would you want to draft a guy that has this history? Let’s take a look at what lies ahead for him this season.

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Stewart hasn’t been as consistent as you might like to see from a running back. Over his last three seasons Stewart has only scored a quality game in nine of 28 games according to Bob Lung’s consistency guide. Looking at the breakdowns by defense level, Stewart is consistently inconsistent. The best category for consistency broken down by defense for Stewart is at home against good defenses, scoring two of four quality games. Taking into account all other defensive rankings together you get an average of 29% quality games. This does not bode well for the chances for Stewart. Most of this second category of quality games was against the bad and middle of the road defenses that should allow for more scoring to a running back.

Taking a look at the schedule for the Carolina Panthers this season has a bit of good news to it. The Panthers will be facing the second best schedule of run defenses from 2014 rankings. The average rank of the run defenses they will face this season is 19.68. The Panthers will have the luxury of only facing off against three Top 10 run defenses from a season ago. The season opens with a soft landing at Jacksonville. The Texans in Week Two present a more difficult challenge. After that the following two games against the Saints and Bucs will be good match ups. Then a rough match up against the Seahawks leads to a cleaner finish to the season.

The playoff run for the Panthers looks pretty good. Week 14 sees the Falcons coming to town. Week 15 sees Carolina traveling to the already banged up Giants. Week 16 sees the Panthers playing the Falcons for the second time in three weeks. Even though you can expect the Falcons to play tougher than last season under new coach Dan Quinn, they were the 21^st ranked run defense last year, and huge overnight change is unlikely. Finally if you play through week 17, the Buccaneers and their 19^th ranked pass defense last season come to Carolina.

Stewart has an ADP that puts him at the end of the fourth round overall. Going at 47^th, his price puts him in the RB2 or RB3 category. In his same area of the ADP you can find players that I would both be more comfortable with, and some that I would be less comfortable with. Andre Ellington is at 49^th in ADP right behind Stewart. I would probably take Ellington over Stewart myself. On the flip side of that coin, Todd Gurley is going at the 46^th pick in ADP, and I would rather have both Stewart and Ellington over Gurley in a redraft league. If you are picking in this area there are a few other players for positions other than running back that I would take over Stewart here.

Another consideration that you must have is the fact that Stewart will have a hard time getting red zone touches. Not only is Cam Newton a touchdown vulture up close, but the Panthers have a history of using Mike Tolbert when they get in close. On top of those two taking away red zone touches, the Panthers have taken on the basketball team mentality for their wide receivers. Now having two very tall receivers, and Greg Olsen who is also tall, the red zone is a crowded place for Carolina.

One thing to note for sure is that if you take Jonathan Stewart for your 2015 Fantasy team, you need to grab Cameron Artis-Payne as a backup. With Stewart being the poster child for getting injured over his career, his back up is an important asset. The schedule is so good that the next man up might have a shot at relevance as well.

Earlier this offseason I was all aboard the Stewart train. As we get closer to the season, and I take a closer look at both where his ADP is settling in at, and his overall situation, I have a hard time finding myself wanting to take Stewart on my team this season. If available I would rather take another running back or wide out at the same spot and wait for a Giovanni Bernard type in round five.

Danny Woodhead 2015 Late Round Running Back

Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego Chargers

is back this season after breaking his leg in September of the 2014 season. Woodhead was a big part of the chargers offense in the 2013 season. A sneaky value play that season, Woodhead is on my list of late round value guys you can look to plug in as a platoon at your running back or flex spots this season.

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Taking a look at the Average Draft Position (ADP) to find value players to take in a PPR league is a good preseason practice. Sure leagues might play out a little differently, but overall I have found that the values are pretty similar. Some of that can be attributed to the rankings on a  league site influencing the players that show available at the nearby picks. So knowing the players and where they tend to go in drafts gives owners a head start over their opponents in draft strategy.

This is where we find Woodhead. With an ADP of 107 according to fantasypros.com PPR rankings, Woodhead is a good addition to a Fantasy team for a multitude of purposes. He can be used as a bye week fill in for the RB2 or flex positions. If  punting on the RB2 spot in favor of either a heavy early wide receiver draft, or take an elite quarterback or tight end in the early rounds, then Woodhead can be immensely valuable.

Taking a look at his 2013 numbers with the Chargers, 

we find that Woodhead was a very productive guy in PPR formats. He had over 1000 yards combined, 429 rushing and 605 receiving. Along with his solid yardage statistics, Woodhead also scored eight total touchdowns during the 2013 season, two rushing and six receiving. He made his hay in long yardage situations and in the red zone. On plays where the Chargers had 10 or more yards to go, Woodhead gained 625 of his yards. In the red zone he had 18 rushes, scoring on two of those. But his big key to the red zone offense for San Diego was his receiving in the red zone. In 2013 he caught 19 passes in the red zone, scoring on five of them. That is excellent efficiency, scoring on about one of every four red zone passes he caught.

The schedule for the Chargers breaks in two completely different directions. The run defenses they will face are by far better than the pass defenses. The average run defense the Chargers will face is 17.68, the ninth easiest schedule in the league. They will only face five Top 10 run defenses. The pass defenses on the slate this season are much harder. The schedule is ranked 27^th overall, with an average of 13.75. Eight Top 10 pass defenses from last season await them. Traditionally Woodhead has played well against lower ranked defenses.

The season opens with a tough game at home against Detroit, the top run defense last year, and 13^th against the pass, but it gets better from there. After Week 1, the Chargers face bottom half run defenses in five of the next six games. Fantasy playoff time finds the schedule breaking very well for the Chargers running game. In Week 14 the Chiefs stout pass defense and 28^th ranked run defense host San Diego. Week 15 finds the Chargers hosting the long traveling, pass defending, and 24^th ranked run defending Miami Dolphins. In many leagues championship games, the Chargers travel to Oakland and face their 22^nd ranked run defense and 16^th ranked pass defense. If the playoffs play to Week 17, a difficult divisional road match up awaits the Chargers in Denver. Denver sported the number two run defense and the number nine pass defense a year ago.

With the fact that Woodhead is returning from an injury

Fantasy players will definitely want to keep an eye on him in training camp and preseason games to make sure that he is healthy and still able to play. The Chargers also drafted Melvin Gordon, a solid pass catching back, who may be able to keep Woodhead at bay if he can pass block well. Branden Oliver showed well as the Chargers running back last year in the absence of Woodhead for a few games, so his usage and position on the depth chart should also be monitored.

A possible boon for Woodhead might be found in the suspension of Antonio Gates. With gates out for the first four games of the season, San Diego will be without one of their red zone targets. This may serve to boost the usage of Woodhead in the red zone, leaving his Fantasy owners to reap the benefits.

If Woodhead can win his spot back as the long yardage, third down, and red zone back for San Diego, he might be a player that can help fantasy owners win a championship in the 2015 season. His late round ADP makes him an easily attainable resource for any team. 

Garage Sale Denver Area

Taking a look at the Denver Broncos schedule and current offensive rankings, it seems like selling while you can may be a good idea. Remember when the price of gold skyrocketed? If you had a bunch of gold, and sold it all in 2011, you would have made tons of money. Now gold still has value, but it has dropped off since its highs. The same holds true for the Denver offense.

Denver has the second hardest schedule for the 2014 season. This fact has not been lost on me, seeing as I own pieces of their offense on my various teams. In the last week I have started to think about using those players to trade up to players with more favorable situations. This thought started to cross my mind as I watched the Broncos play the Seahawks in week 3 of the season. They were shut down for 3 quarters of the game. Now understood that Seattle has a formidable defense, but Seattle is far from the only difficult task throughout the season.

Looking at the Broncos schedule from after their bye in week for on, the outlook is somewhat bleak for their prospects. Let us examine the data. The defensive rankings are through the third week of the season, so small sample size, but I still think the data is likely applicable.

The Broncos opponents average total defensive ranking is 10.07 for the rest of the season. The low outliers are Kansas City at 19 and Cincinnati at 17, both on the road. Denver already played Kansas City in week 2, putting up 24 points. They only managed 88 yards rushing and did not score on the ground. Peyton Manning was 21-26 for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns. In this game Emmanuel Sanders had 8-108, and 3 different Broncos scored. The yardage production for Manning is slightly lower than you might expect against a supposedly depleted secondary at home. The high outliers are at the Jets (2nd in total D) and at New England (3).

What looks like the best case for the Broncos is the opponents run defense, coming in at an average of 15.3. Weeks 5, 6, and 7 look particularly brutal for their run game, as the worst run defense they face is 6th ranked San Francisco. After week 7 it begins to ease up slightly, possibly with some favorable run match ups against the Raiders (31) in weeks 10 and 17, the Rams (29) in week 11, Miami (20) in week 12, and Kansas City (23) in week 13.

The passing defense of Broncos opponents came in at an average of 10.8 rest of season. Only 3 of their opponents are currently ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass defense: Arizona in week 5 (19), Buffalo (26) in week 14, and Cincinnati (17) in week 16. This lends itself to the thought that even with Peyton at the controls, it might be some tough sledding for the Broncos in the passing game. I feel it necessary to note that the passing numbers for Oakland (4) may be flawed as Oakland is the second worst team against the run, so teams do not need to.

No matter what it was going to be difficult to repeat the season Denver had in 2013 in which they set a few offensive records. The difficulty has me interested in getting what I can for my Denver players. After last year, and being so early this year and post bye, you should still be able to get top dollar for many of your Denver guys. I have not been able to find a statistic ranking defense against tight ends, but Julius Thomas has been producing at a high level. I am personally not going to look at trading him where I have him. Emmanuel Sanders is also producing well, having 2 100 yard plus games and averaging 8 catches a game through the first two weeks. If you can sell pretty high on him, do it. If not, holding on to him doesn't seem a bad idea yet.

The rest of the offense is on the block in my leagues. I have been actively seeking a trade for Montee Ball in one league, and would entertain offers for Demaryius given enough value. I don't think I would take much less than another top tier wide receiver and maybe a running back of lower value. Peyton can also bring you a haul. I just traded him in a 2 quarterback league in a 5 player deal giving up Peyton and Alfred Morris and getting back Calvin Johnson, Tony Romo, and DeAndre Hopkins.

If you find the right owner, with the right mix of players, and the right needs, dealing the Denver offense is not a bad idea. You can likely get players to fill holes in your roster, and free yourself from the Broncos match up nightmares.

The Zero Running Back Strategy And Mid-round Pass Catchers

I personally play in 4 fantasy leagues this season. Three of the four are PPR (point per reception) leagues. I like this format as it is a higher scoring format, and makes some selections during draft time require more finesse and strategy.

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In preparing for my leagues last season I came up with the idea that I wanted to get 2 or 3 high volume wide receivers and forgo running backs in the first few rounds. Three depends on the presence of a flex spot in your leagues. My main goals were: Get Calvin Johnson as often as possible, Get someone like Demarius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green. Basically to get two of the most highly ranked receivers that catches a high volume of passes. These guys are usually match up proof and get between 85-100 catches a year. In a PPR format this leads to 85-100 more points, making someone like Calvin Johnson have a similar value to Peyton Manning last year during a record setting season.

Now to your running backs. If you take 2 wide receivers in a row, you will still find some teams starting running backs in round 3. These guys won’t be the bell cow workhorse guys for their team, but a starting running back has value in any fantasy league. The key is the round 4 through 6 picks. This is the area where you need to have an idea about what the people in your draft like to do, as well as the average draft positions of the players you want to take. I don't mind a small reach to get a guy I really want on my team if I am certain he won't come back to me at my next pick. At the same time, if there are a few players you like in this portion of the draft, reaching may not be your best option. This year I did lots of mock drafts, from every possible draft position, to make sure that I had an idea of where the guys I really liked went. Your league, like mine, will be filled with the “average” player. Some better than others, but you can get a general idea about where players are going.

These rounds are where I like to target my pass catching running backs. Players like Danny Woodhead, Darren Sproles, and Joique Bell were going in this range this season. While Woodhead is off to a slow start, I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a surge now that Ryan Matthews is out for a while. And we have all seen what Sproles has done the first few weeks of the season. I have a feeling Joique Bell is about to explode in that Detroit offense. I think he is the best back on that team, and I think they figured that out week 1. If you can land one or two of these guys in a PPR league and they get you 3-5 catches a week and a TD every 2-3 weeks, you will be a happy camper. Back fill with some running back depth, another wide receiver, and a solid late bye defense and kicker, and you have a recipe for success.