My Playbook

Showing posts with label FF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FF. Show all posts

Saturday, December 6, 2014

Start Sit Week 14

For many of you, this will be the first week of the fantasy playoffs. For others, this will be the last week until they start. I assume that if you are still reading, it means good things, or you are just as much of a fantasy football sicko as I have become. Either way, lets look at the start sit for week 14 together.

Start

Josh Gordon (CLE) takes on the Colts at home this week. Indianapolis will be without Vontae Davis this week, and that should lead to a field day for Gordon against the Colts. It is also likely that in his third week back from suspension, Gordon has worked out some of the bugs in his route running and the offense and should strike gold for you this week. A shootout is definitely possible in this game against the high octane offense of Indy, so expect a lot of scoring. Get Gordon in your lineup.

Delanie Walker (TEN) is very nearly the last man standing in the passing attack of the Titans. Losing Justin Hunter last week, and likely without Kendall Wright as well this week, Walker should see a large uptick in targets and production this week. The match up for Walker is fantastic as well, taking on the Giants who are reeling and have given up 20 touchdowns through the air on the season. In the vast wasteland that has been the tight end position this season, Walker should be a bright spot this week. Start him.

Frank Gore (SF) has a fantastic opportunity to be the hero in a cross bridge rivalry game with the Oakland Raiders and their 27th ranked run defense. Oakland has allowed 130.5 yards per game, and 13 scores on the ground this season. Last week the Rams showed us how it was done, torching the Raiders with their running game. The only possible negative is that the 49ers get up big early and decide to take Gore out and run Carlos Hyde, but by that time Gore may have already put up solid numbers for you. Start him.

Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb (GB) has the fortune of facing off against the worst passing defense in the league this week when he and the Packers in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field. The Falcons by yardage are the worst pass defense, likely because they are easy to punch it in against, but I don't see both Cobb and Nelson having trouble finding the end zone. The Packers have been scoring almost at will, and that is unlikely to stop this week against Atlanta. You better have both these guys playing if you want to win.

Sit

LeSean McCoy (PHI) has a tough match up this week against the Seahawks, and his track record this year against good run defenses is not so good. On the season McCoy only has one performance over 10 fantasy points in a PPR format against a top 15 run defense, and even expanding that to 15 points the number only swells to 2. The Seahawks have been playing their best defensive ball of the season, and have the 5th ranked run defense on the season, allowing only 86.3 yards per game. It is tough medicine, but sitting McCoy will cure what ails ya.

Eric Decker (NYJ) is a victim of multiple circumstances for the Jets. Terrible quarterback play, injuries, and now facing the 6th ranked pass defense of the Vikings on the road. If the Jets employ a similar game plan as last week, Decker is lost. Somehow Decker caught 2 passes of the 13 thrown by Geno Smith. The Vikes only allow 219 yards per game, and I would expect that number to go down this week. I would not even think about starting Decker this week.

Percy Harvin (NYJ) falls under a the same category as his teammate Eric Decker. The only bonus for Harvin over Decker is that he gets some rushing yards, but this offense and team are a complete mess. On the season, split between two teams, and two offenses, Harvin has been a disaster. Having only 1 game over 50 receiving yards on the season, and 188 rushing yards on the season, if you have been playing Harvin and made the playoffs, the rest of your team is amazing. Plug in any random player and carry on. 

Tre Mason (STL) take on a surprisingly stout run defense of Washington this week. Washington is ranked 9th against the run, and allows only 102.8 yards per game on the ground. Points may be hard to come by this week, and the Rams might have a better chance through the air where Washington has given up 26 touchdowns. After a huge game last week, I expect a big letdown this week for Mason. Sit him.

Sammy Watkins (BUF) has fallen off the last 4 games. Reports that he is dealing with groin and hip issues seem to have limited him. It hasn't helped that Watkins has been facing some good corners, and that is going to continue this week when Buffalo takes on Denver on the road. Watkins will be taking on Aqib Talib, and will once again have a tough time. Banged up and facing a defense that allows only 229.7 yards per game through the air, I am sitting Watkins this week.

Ryan Mathews (SD) is facing the 13th ranked run defense in the league this week in the New England Patriots. The ranking is somewhat deceptive as the Pats have allowed only 5 rushing touchdowns on the season. Mathews had missed much of the season, and is fresh, but in the first week of the playoffs, I am not inclined to recommend that you start Mathews this week.

That brings us once again to the end of the start sit article this week. Here is hoping that this article helps you to either your playoffs, or to the next round. Go out there and get 'em. Good luck this week!

Friday, October 31, 2014

Monster Match Ups and Misses Week 9

Taking a look at the week 9 schedule, it was easier to find good match ups as opposed to bad ones. Good match ups abound this week, and some of the bad ones are due not only to the ability of the opposing defense, but also workload and crowding issues in some teams backfields. Let's take a look at the week 9 match ups.

The Good

Image source: bleacherreport.com
Philadelphia Eagles wide receivers have a good match up this week against the Houston Texans. In an offense that loves to throw the ball, the Eagles will face off against the 29th ranked pass defense of the Texans. Houston is allowing 271.4 yards per game on the season, and have given up 15 touchdowns through the air. The Eagles have the 6th ranked pass offense in the league, and given this match up it is easy to say start your Eagles wide receivers and Zach Ertz. Darren Sproles deserves a flex look as well coming back from injury this week.
Image source: 2kolf.com

Cincinnati Bengals wide receivers have a fantastic opportunity this week against the 27th ranked offense of the Jaguars. Add to that the likely return of AJ Green, and the subtraction of Giovanni Bernard from the Bengals offense, and it looks like the air game is set up to have success this week. The Jaguars are allowing 267.4 yards per game and don't pick the ball off a lot. Andy Dalton should be able to take advantage of this match up this week in a spot start if your quarterback is one of the bye week guys. Mohamed Sanu and AJ Green are must starts this week.
The Seattle Seahawks running game faces the Oakland Raiders in Seattle this week. I look for a dedication to the run in a game the Seahawks should be able to build a lead and grind to the finish. The Raiders allow 130.1 rushing yards per game on the season and are the 26th ranked run defense. Look for Seattle to return to their ground and pound ways to control the game.

Indianapolis Colts wide outs have a good match up this week against the 25th ranked pass defense of the New York Giants. Allowing 262.4 yards per game through the air, the Giants are definitely vulnerable to the great passing attack of the Colts. The return of Reggie Wayne this week makes at least 3 viable starters for the Colts in TY Hilton, Reggie Wayne, and Dwayne Allen. Fringe guys for the colts are Donte Moncrief and Coby Fleener. You can start them in an emergency, but I wouldn't count too much on their production this week.

Image source: texanstalk.com
Arian Foster and the Houston Texans rushing attack are in a great situation this week against the Philadelphia Eagles. If Houston wants to control the amount of time the Eagles have the ball, the easiest way is to lean on Foster and Alfred Blue to grind the clock down. The Eagles have only allowed 3 rushing touchdowns on the season, but they do allow 116.7 yards per game so far this year. Look for Foster to get a heaping helping of touches this week and find success.

The Bad

New York Jets wide receivers have a terrible match up this week against the top ranked pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs. On top of the tough match up, the Jets have been a mess at the quarterback position. Last week in the debut of Percy Harvin, Geno Smith was benched and Michael Vick took over. Neither one of the Jets quarterbacks had any success and I don't see that getting better for them this week. Sit your Jets receivers, and if you play Vick, pray for rushing.

Image source: boltsbeat.com
San Diego Chargers square off against the 3rd ranked pass defense of the Miami Dolphins in week 9. The Dolphins shut down the Chicago Bears receivers last week, and have only been allowing 211.6 yards passing per game on the season. Keenan Allen has been having trouble scoring this year, and the only guy that has been really good is Antonio Gates. The success of Phillip Rivers has been very dependent on Gates. Look for the Dolphins to try to take Gates out of the equation.

St. Louis Rams running game is a victim of the old running back by committee. Tre Mason had a great game against the Seahawks in week 7, then followed that up with 7 carries for 32 yards in week 8. Mason suffers from an inability to pass block, and loses time on the field to Benny Cunningham in those situations. The Rams opponent in week 9 is the San Francisco 49ers, who have the 4th ranked run defense, allowing 84.9 yards per game.  Mason did have some success against the 49ers in week 6, averaging 8 yards per carry, but the other two backs had marginal results. Given the volatile situation in the Rams backfield, I can't see starting any of them.

Philadelphia Eagles running backs have been largely disappointing so far this season. LeSean McCoy has had one good game so far against the Giants in week six, and has only scored one time on the season. Darren Sproles is in the same boat, and is coming back from an MCL injury. Sproles had a huge game in week 2, and has done nothing since. This week the Eagles are taking on the Houston Texans. Ranked 12th, the Texans have allowed 108.2 yards per game on the season, but have only allowed 4 rushing touchdowns. If you have better options that McCoy and Sproles, I think it is a good week to try those options.

Image source: notredamegoirish.blogspot.com
New England Patriots running backs are about as unpredictable as the huge wind storm that is supposed to hit at game time. Head coach Bill Belichick is known to game plan to specific teams, and frequently will completely stay away from the player that was productive the week before. The Pats take on the top ranked run defense of the Denver Broncos this week. Denver has only allowed 72.4 yards per game and 5 scores on the ground this season. Last week Jonas Gray had 17 carries for 86 yards. The week before he had 3 for 12. I personally hate owning a running back from the Patriots because of the schizophrenic nature of Belichick. The wind storm is a confounding factor, along with the explosive nature of the Broncos offense. If you have to gamble, one possible game plan could be to feed the ball to Gray to control the clock and keep Peyton Manning off the field. Or he could go opposite and use Shane Vereen and pass non stop. Your guess is as good as mine.

That brings us to the end of the match up monsters and misses for week 9. Halfway through the season already, and only about a month from the fantasy playoffs, I hope this article can help you make the good choices this week to propel your teams to the playoffs and a championship. Good luck this week!

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Strategy Scoop: Flex Play

It may seem like common sense, but I have watched players in my leagues, and have myself this season made an easy mistake. The Thursday night games are an outlier on the week , and you must treat them accordingly.

When a team plays on Thursday night, the players from that game are locked down until the following week when waivers process. This leads to a few different situations in which care must be taken to make sure that you make moves with these players that are appropriate for your needs. The first thing to think about is if you want to roster a guy for the week. If you don't intend to play a guy from the Thursday night games, you should probably consider dropping fringe level players that you are not going to play on Thursday to open up more options for the Sunday games.

Now I'm not telling you to drop top level talent on Thursday before the game kicks off, but if you have a 5th running back or receiver that you aren't likely to play unless you will have a definite need for them in the near future. The guys I am talking about are the speculative players that have the Thursday night match up. If you weren't playing them anyways, you can take a chance on getting them back the next week, while opening up more options for this week on Sunday.

The other mistake I see made, and the one I have definitely made myself is leaving a player that has a Thursday night game in my flex spot. If you are playing a flex eligible player in a Thursday night game, DO NOT leave him in your flex spot. When you are playing the Thursday night guys, put them in their appropriate slot. Running backs in the running back spot, receivers in the wide receiver spot. This allows you the maximum flexibility on Sunday in case an unexpected injury pops up late in the week. This happened to me earlier this year when I forgot to move a wide receiver out of my flex spot and would have been able to make a decision between Darren Sproles and Reggie Wayne or Dwayne Allen in my flex spot later in the week. Instead I only had Sproles available to me.

It is a simple move to make, but allowing yourself the maximum flexibility is the best strategy to make your team a winner. A choice between multiple players is always going to be better than being tied down to only one player.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Is Hunting Season Open?

With a switch to quarterback Zach Mettenberger for the Tennessee Titans, is hunting season open? Big play wide receiver Justin Hunter may have a new found value for fantasy.

Image source: denverpost.com
Justin Hunter has had an up and down season so far for the Titans. From being made to wear a jersey in the preseason that read JAG, which stood for just a guy, in practice by coach Ken Whisenhunt, to sporadic production during the regular season. So far in the tumultuous 2014 campaign for the Titans there have been 2 starting quarterbacks, and this weekend they will add a third. There has been a lack of consistency for the offense, and Charlie Whitehurst was not going to be a guy to do a lot more than manage the Titans to closer losses than if they put a tackling dummy in at quarterback. It seems quite likely that there could be some better days ahead for Hunter and the Tennessee offense.

In college at Tennessee Hunter didn't do a whole lot in his first 2 seasons. As a freshman he was a big play guy, catching 16 passes for 415 yards, scoring on 7 of his receptions. His yards per catch was 25.9 during that season. As a sophomore in 2011 Hunter caught 17 balls in the 3 games he played before tearing his ACL. The big breakout season was in 2012 as a junior where hunter caught 73 passes for 1083 yards and 9 touchdowns. The per catch numbers came down, but the sustainability of 25.9 yards per catch was ultimately unrealistic.

Hunter has great size at 6'4 and great vertical and broad jump abilities, measured at 39 1/2 inch vertical and 136 inch broad jump, both best performances at the combine for wide receivers. His 33 1/4 inch arms and 9 3/8 inch hands give him the reach and hand size needed to be able to control the ball. The Titans took him in the second round (34th overall) of the 2013 draft. Paired along side of Kendall Wright and Nate Washington, with Delanie Walker at tight end, the Titans were set up to have a good receiving corps. The inconsistent play at quarterback, and inability of Jake Locker to stay healthy, has cost the Titans. Along with the inconsistent play from their signal callers, the Titans have struggled to put together a running game to take the pressure off of their quarterbacks.

Now enter Mettenberger. A 2 year starter at LSU, Mettenberger has shown a propensity to get the ball
Image source: zimbio.com
down the field. His senior season Mettenberger had an average yards per attempt of 10.4. That is a huge number for average yards per attempt. In recent history some now NFL quarterbacks had smaller numbers for down field attempts. Blake Bortles had an average yards per attempt of 9.4 his senior year. Andrew Luck had an average of 8.9 yards per attempt over his 3 seasons at Stanford. Robert Griffin III had 10.7 his senior year, but an average of 8.7 during his college career. And even Austin Davis, known as a bit of a gunslinger, had an average of 7.1 yards per attempt during his time at Southern Mississippi.

The desire and ability of Mettenberger to push the ball down the field is a great thing for the Titans offense overall. This will allow playmakers like Hunter and Wright to get down field and make plays, and in turn could take some pressure off the line of scrimmage for the run game. All of these factors could open up the entire offense for the Titans for the rest of this season. A fairly favorable schedule also awaits the Titans passing game for the remainder of the season. The rest of the year the Titans only play one top 10 passing defense in the Colts in week 17, and if your playoffs don't include that week you get to skip their worst match up. The whole rest of season average pass defense to be faced by the Titans is 20th. They face only 3 teams in the top half of pass defense rankings the rest of the year. If Mettenberger can lead this offense and pick up the speed of the game, the Titans may be able to finish on a high note.

If you are inclined to gamble a little on a season that is sitting at 3-4, you could do worse than to acquire Hunter, or even try to buy low on Kendall Wright, and maybe add Mettenberger to your team and put your wager on the Titans being able to take advantage of their good schedule for the rest of 2014.

Monster Match Ups And Misses Week 8

Week 8 has some huge games that offer up some monster match ups for your fantasy week. On the flip side of that, there are some games that offer up bad match ups for both receivers and running backs on your teams. Let's take a look at this weeks monsters and misses.

The Good
Image source detroitlions.com

Detroit Lions have a great match up this week against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have the 27th ranked run defense in the league allowing 137.7 rushing yards per game and 13 rushing touchdowns so far this season. With Reggie Bush and Theo Riddick both being banged up, it might be a great week for Joique Bell this week in London. Along with the bad run defense the Falcons have the 29th ranked pass defense in the league. Allowing 274.4 yards and 8 touchdowns through the air this year, Golden Tate should find himself some good stats this week. Early rumors say that it is possible that Calvin Johnson will play this week, but keep an eye out for practice report updates this week. Being that this game is in London, the start time is early for both east and west coast fantasy players. If Johnson practices this week, you can expect him to play and plug him in your lineup.
The

In week 8 the Seattle Seahawks face off against the once menacing defense of the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers rank 26th against the run, allowing 137.6 yards per game and 8 touchdowns on the season on the ground. Ranking 22nd against the pass, they allow 250.7 yards per game and 15 touchdowns. I look for the Seahawks to recommit to the run this week with Marshawn Lynch. On top of that, it could be a coming out party for Paul Richardson this week against the porous Carolina secondary. Start your Seahwaks, and don't leave Richardson on your waiver wire for the future.

Image source zimbio.com
The Minnesota Vikings have a great match up against the run defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs allow 128.3 yards per game with their 25th ranked run defense. Jerick McKinnon seems to have finally passed Matt Asiata to be the starter and feature back for the Vikings. With 30 rushes for 143 yards the past 2 weeks for the Vikes, McKinnon has had the lions share of the rushes for the Vikings. He is a must start this week against the Bucs.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers wide receivers have to be licking their chops with their match up this week at the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have the 28th ranked pass defense, allowing 270.5 yards per game and have given up 11 touchdowns while only having 3 interceptions. Look for the great offense of the Packers to feast on the Saints defense early and often.

The Philadelphia Eagles square off against the 31st ranked pass defense of the Arizona Cardinals. Allowing 284.8 yards per game, the pass heavy offense of the Eagles should be able to find some success against the Cards. Look for Jeremy Maclin to have a good game, but the sleeper to watch is Jordan Matthews. Look for him to have a breakout game this week. I would expect to see Patrick Peterson on Jeremy Maclin a lot, leaving Mathews in a good spot to score for you.

Image source sportsworldreport.com
A team I would never have expected to be writing about hits up the monsters list next. The Oakland Raiders have a great match up against the 32nd ranked defense of the Cleveland Browns. Giving up a league high 155.5 yards per game, and 5 yards per carry, it is a good week ahead for Darren McFadden. As long as the Raiders follow a game plan that includes attacking Cleveland at their weak point, you should get a solid spot start from McFadden this week.

The Bad:

The Cincinnati Bengals had a tough week 7 against the Colts, and it isn't going to get much easier this week against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are the 7th ranked run defense in the NFL allowing only 87 yards per game on the ground and only 3 touchdowns on the season. This will make for a hard game for Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill in week 8. The Ravens passing defense is ranked 24th in the league allowing 258 yards a game, but they have not allowed a lot of scoring, only 7 passing touchdowns on the season. The Bengals need AJ Green to play this week, or they will have a hard time finding a way to win this game. If Green sits out again this week, or if he isn't 100 percent, I don't like the fantasy output you will likely see from the Bengals.

Image source stltoday.com
St. Louis Rams played a solid game against the Seahawks in week 7, but their special teams was the
difference maker last week. This week I look for their passing attack to have a difficult time against the leagues number 2 pass defense. The Kansas City Chiefs only allow 209 yards per game on the season. They have allowed 11 passing touchdowns on the season, but a young quarterback, and inconsistent play from the wide receivers of the Rams leads me to the desire to sit my Rams wide outs this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars earned their first win of the season in week 7, but in week 8 they get to face the defense that just shut down a much better Chicago offense. The Miami Dolphins are the 4th ranked passing defense and 10th ranked run defense. Allowing 213.3 and 100.3 yards a game respectively, it looks to be a bad match up for the Jags this week. Add to that the revolving door at running back, and a rookie signal caller, and it is hard to find a Jaguar I would want to start on my fantasy team this week.

Image source sportstalkflorida.com
This week the Atlanta Falcons face off against what has been one of the best defenses in the league in the Detroit Lions. Detroit has the leagues 2nd ranked run defense at 73.4 yards per game and 3 rushing scores allowed on the season. The Falcons have a mess on their offensive line, having lost 5 players for the season already. On top of that, they have a weird 4 headed monster of a running back by committee going on. Steven Jackson is quite obviously past his prime now, and the other three rely on long touchdown catches to do anything at all. There is not a Falcons running back that I would even roster now, let alone think about starting for my fantasy teams the rest of this season.

Another tough running back situation sets up this week for the San Diego Chargers. Facing the 3rd ranked run defense of the Denver Broncos in week 8, who give up only 74.3 yards per game, and 5 scores on the ground so far on the season, Branden Oliver has a mountain to climb this week, pun not intended. Add to that the short week, this is the Thursday night game, and the fact that it is in Denver in the thin air, and Oliver is a sit in my book. The Chargers don't have another viable option at running back, so Oliver will see workload, but I don't expect him to put up huge numbers.

Image source: sbnation.com
The Chicago Bears wide receivers and Jay Cutler have their second difficult match up in a row coming in week 8. They face off against the top ranked New England Patriots pass defense. Allowing only 208 yards per game and 11 touchdowns on the season, the Pats have the luxury of having Revis Island. You can basically take one of the Bears receivers out of the picture, but I am not sure which one it will be. In any case, with dissension amongst the ranks in the Bears offense after last weeks abysmal performance at the Dolphins, I don't see relief in their future. 

That brings us to the end of another monster match ups and misses. Hopefully it has helped to shape informed decisions for your week 8 fantasy lineups. Good luck and go get 'em!

Friday, October 10, 2014

Practice Report Round Up Week 6

Back again with your week 6 practice report round up. Some new and interesting names appear this week. As always, if they don't practice on Friday, they probably aren't playing on Sunday. With that said, here we go.

Image source washingtonpost.com
Carson Palmer (ARI) was limited on Friday. Arizonacardinals.com is reporting that Palmer is throwing at about 80%. Coach Bruce Arians was quoted as saying that he didn't know who was going to start on Sunday. Definitely keep your eyes open Sunday morning for the inactives for the Cardinals.

Drew Stanton (ARI) is the other piece of the enigma at quarterback in Arizona. He has progressed through the concussion protocol this week, and barring a setback should be able to play on Sunday. The status of Carson Palmer will ultimately decide who is going to start for the Cardinals. If Palmer is able to go, it is his show.

Andre Ellington (ARI) was limited in practice on Friday with a foot injury. This is the same injury that he has been dealing with all season, so it is unlikely that he will not play this week. Keep your eye on the inactive list Sunday, but I would be surprised if he didn't play.

Harry Douglas (ATL) is out this week. The third wide out for Atlanta, if you were starting him in a deep league make other plans.

Devin Hester (ATL) was limited in practice on Friday. He will likely play, but may not see a full slate of offensive plays. Hester would likely only be an offensive option in very deep leagues, so if you happen to have him, you may want to find another receiver to play this week.

Fred Jackson (BUF) did not practice on Friday due to illness. It is likely that he will suit up on Sunday, but just in case make sure to check his status before kickoff.

Greg Olsen (CAR) was limited in practice on Friday with an ankle injury. He is expected to play on Sunday.

Jonathan Stewart (CAR) was limited on Friday, and NBC sports is reporting that he will be a game time decision. Stewart has been a marginal talent as it is, and his seemingly being injury prone makes him hard to trust.

Image source fansided.com
Darrin Reaves (CAR) was nursing an injury early in the week, but was back as a full participant in
practice on Friday.

AJ Green (CIN) is out for Sunday after aggravating his previous toe injury. This is expected to be at least a 1-2 week injury.

Marvin Jones (CIN) looks like he will have to wait until at least next week to make his return to the field for the Bengals after not practicing at all this week.

Reggie Bush (DET) missed practice on Friday and is likely out for Sunday. According to ESPN, Bush said he will test the ankle this weekend, but won't push it to play against Minnesota.

Calvin Johnson (DET) is likely out this week. After re-injuring his ankle last week on his only catch of the game, and playing a decoy role in previous games, it would be decidedly difficult to trust Johnson if he did suit up this Sunday.

Jarrett Boykin (GB)did not practice on Friday. If you had Boykin in your lineup, take a look at Davante Adams as a viable option as the 3rd wide out in Green Bay.

Image source Jacksonville.com
Toby Gerhart (JAC) was out of practice on Friday. Look for the Jaguars to Give Storm Johnson a look as the running downs back, and possibly a 3 down back in their offense this week, and maybe going forward.

Marqise Lee (JAC) was back in practice this week and should be able to play.

Cecil Shorts (JAC) returned to practice this week. The additions of Shorts and Lee back into the Jaguars lineup should give them some hope of gaining their first win of the season. Hard to trust Shorts at this point, as he is injured frequently, but when healthy his talent is unquestioned.

Charles Clay (MIA) was limited in practice on Friday. Clay has struggled this season, and is likely not a top option in your leagues, but should play if you have no better options.

Knowshon Moreno (MIA) returned to practice and is now listed as probable for Sunday. The Dolphins have a great match up against the Packers, who have the worst run defense in the NFL. It is unclear what the role for Moreno will be, but early in the season there was plenty for both backs to eat in the Dolphins backfield.

Tom Brady (NE) showed up on the practice report on Friday and is listed as questionable. Never quite sure what to make of the Patriots practice reports, so keep your eyes on the inactives on Sunday.

Image source nydailynews.com
Eric Decker (NYJ) was limited on in practice Friday. It seems that he may have extra motivation to make it back to action against his former team Sunday, but he will be hard to trust after leaving a game early with his hamstring injury.

David Nelson (NYJ) is questionable for Sunday after being limited in practice Friday. Rex Ryan said that Nelson may have had a setback this week with his ankle, according to ESPN. You would likely be playing Nelson in deep leagues and should think about other plans at wide receiver if you were playing him.

David Carr (OAK) was limited on Friday. I would expect him to play against San Diego on Sunday. There is likely to be some good garbage time and catch up so Carr may put up decent numbers if you are in a deep league or a 2 quarterback league.

Jordan Matthews (PHI) missed practice on Friday. I found no other information on the reason he was out. The Eagles play the Sunday night game, so if you were playing him you should make sure to have another Eagles option or someone from the Monday night game to play just in case Matthews does not play.

Donald Brown (SD) missed practice this week and looks unlikely to play.

Image source sfexaminer.com
Vernon Davis (SF) was limited in practice Friday. A slightly different situation with Davis playing on Monday night, but that also makes it harder to start him on your fantasy team. Watch the reports for Saturday and make an informed decision on Sunday.

Zac Stacy (STL) did not practice on Friday. Just like with Vernon Davis, Stacy plays on Monday night. Watch the Saturday practice reports, and treat them like the Friday reports with regard to Stacy. Out means likely out, limited means he may play. Proceed with caution.

Mike Evans (TB) returned to practice this week for the Bucs. He seems like he is going to play this week for Tampa Bay.

Vincent Jackson (TB) was limited in practice on Friday. He should play and if you spent the draft pick on him, you are playing him.

Jake Locker (TEN) did not practice this week. Locker is not expected to play. Enter clipboard Jesus!

Jordan Reed (WAS) was limited in practice. He will be a game time decision but said earlier this week that barring a setback he expects to play this week. Washington plays the Cardinals who are traditionally bad at defending the tight end, so if he plays, there is a good chance that he will be a good option for you.

Good luck this week!

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Match Up Monsters And Misses Week 6

Welcome once again to the match up monsters and misses article. We find ourselves in week 6 of the NFL season. This week sees the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs on bye. Let's examine the match ups further.

Image source lesterslegends.com
The following teams have good match ups in week 6:

Image source topteamfantasy.com
Arizona Cardinals: This match up is conditional. Assuming that the Cardinals have Carson Palmer or even Drew Stanton playing, they should score well against Washington. Even though the Washington defense is ranked 10th in total defense on the season, 10th in pass defense, and 15th in run defense, the numbers are skewed in my opinion. Seattle gashed the pass defense last week, only to be thwarted by penalties. And we saw Russell Wilson run crazy for a Monday Night Football record 122 yards and a score. Even so, through 5 games, Washington has given up 11 passing touchdowns. Along with the passing touchdowns allowed, they are allowing 114.6 rushing yards a game. Some of this is due to inconsistent quarterback play by the Washington quarterbacks giving their opponents a short field. Andre Ellington is a must start. Palmer or Stanton can provide a nice bye week fill in for Drew Brees in case of emergency. Michael Floyd should get healthy with solid quarterback play. Larry Fitzgerald is a flex play this week. John Brown is still a bit raw and should be played at your own risk.

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have the luxury of playing an Oakland team this week that is not only terrible, but now deals with the turmoil of an in season coaching change. Ranked 19th in total defense, the Raiders can't stop the run, so nobody needs to pass. Giving up a whopping 158.2 yards per game on the ground so far this season, the Raiders rank 31st in the league. Their passing defense is ranked 5th, only allowing 207 yards per game. I expect that number to change this week. Phillip Rivers is a must start. Having an MVP worthy season so far, he should not be seeing your bench. Given the injury problems that San Diego has had at the running back position this year, it is hard to say who to play this week. If Donald Brown plays, he is a must start. Ronnie Brown is less certain. He is familiar with the offense, but not sure I want to trust him. Branden Oliver had an amazing game last week, but if another back is present, the split may not be the same. Start all your healthy San Diego receivers and Antonio Gates.

New York Giants: The Giants have a fantastic match up against the terrible defense of the Philadelphia eagles. Ranked 28th overall in defense, the Eagles are 29th against the pass and 24th against the run. They have allowed 13 passing touchdowns and 132 rushing yards per game. Teams facing the Eagles are scoring touchdowns 62.5% of their trips to the red zone. Andre Williams gets the start at running back this week for the Giants and is a must start. Victor Cruz and Ruben Randle are great wide receiver 2 starts or flex options. Odell Beckham Jr. is not bad as a spot start in a tough flex spot after scoring last week in his NFL debut. Larry Donnell is a good start with that red zone inefficiency on defense for the Eagles.

Image source totalprosports.com
Chicago Bears: The Bears play the hapless Atlanta defense this week. At 29th overall, 24th against the pass, and 28th against the run, the stats should pile up for the Bears offense this week. Atlanta has given up 10 rushing touchdowns on the season and 147.6 yards per game on the ground. Through the air the Falcons defense has given up 259.6 yards per game and 5 touchdowns. Matt Forte Feasts this week on the souls of Atlanta defensive players. Jay Cutler should be able to carve up the defense. If they can catch a pass on the Bears roster, you should play them. All systems go this week for the Bears.

Denver Broncos: The Broncos lost their starting running back this week, but that likely won't matter too much this week against the New York Jets. The front 7 of the Jets stops the run well. The secondary is not as good against the pass. They are tied for second worst in touchdowns allowed through the air, and give up 237.8 yards per game through the air. The Jets offense is not playing well, and they always have the possibility of a turnover allowing a short field. The good news is that Denver seems to have decided that they are going to pass the ball. A lot. Start all your Denver receivers. If I have to tell you that you should start Peyton Manning, you are doing this wrong. Julius Thomas is a man. A large, pass catching, touchdown scoring man. Never sit him. Ever.

The following teams have bad match ups for week 6:

Carolina Panthers: The Panthers play a Cincinnati Bengals team that is likely to be quite angry after being blown out last week against a, so far, mediocre New England team. The Bengals defense is ranked 27th overall, but that statistic may be misleading. Only allowing 19 points per game so far this season, they seem to be a bend but don't break squad. Allowing 140 yards per game as the 27th ranked run defense, they have only allowed 3 rushing touchdowns on the season. The passing defense ranks 19th and allows 250.8 yards per game, but only 4 touchdowns. The Panthers are a mess in the backfield. Cam is not fully healthy. Last week he did rush 6 times, but only had 9 yards rushing. The Panthers have 1 solid receiver, and he is a rookie with drop issues. Until they prove those things wrong, I don't like playing any Panthers if I don't have to.

Image source sportsrants.com
New England Patriots: The Pats play the Buffalo Bills in week 6. The Bills have the 2nd ranked run defense in the NFL. They only allow 71 yards per game, and have not allowed a rushing touchdown on the season. Along with the bad match up against the Bills run defense, the Patriots running game is always a mystery. Who will it be week to week? I could see the Patriots focusing more on the passing game and maybe using Shane Vereen more, but who knows what Belichick will do?

Image source cbssports.com
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys play the Seahawks in week 6, in Seattle. This is considered one of the hardest, if not the hardest, places to play in the NFL. Add to that the fact that the Seahawks are now ranked 1st against the run at 62.2 yards a game and only 1 touchdown allowed. This will make for a clash of the titans in Seattle this week. The best running back so far against the best run defense. You aren't sitting DeMarco Murray, but I wouldn't expect the production you have gotten used to. As for the passing defense of the Seahawks, they have looked vulnerable at times. But we should remember that in their first 4 games, they have faced 3 of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Dez Bryant is another guy I am not thrilled about the match up for, temper expectations. Jason Witten has been decent, but nothing to write home about, and I don't think he is fast enough anymore to be effective against the swarming Seattle defense. Terrance Williams has a shot if he draws the nickel corner, as the Seahawks have a small hole there.

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings face off against the Detroit Lions this week. The Lions have the 3rd ranked run defense in the NFL allowing a meager 74.4 yards per game and 3 touchdowns on the season. The loss of Adrian Peterson obviously put a damper on the running ability of the Vikings. Matt Asiata has only 231 rushing yards on the season averaging 46.2 yards per game. The 3 touchdowns he has came in a game against the bad Atlanta defense. Jerick McKinnon has 166 yards this season, 125 of them against that same Atlanta defense. Neither of them had a good game against the 32nd ranked Green Bay run defense last week. I wouldn't play either of these guys against the Lions this week if you have anyone with a pulse on your bench to play.

This draws to a close the in depth look at the match ups for week 6 in the NFL. Good luck with your games this week. Go get 'em!

Friday, October 3, 2014

Match Up Monsters And Misses Week 5

This is the first in a weekly column where we will examine the match ups for the weekends games, both good and bad. The purpose of this article is to help you to decide what players on your roster have good match ups, and which ones have bad. The hope is to guide you with some basic stats who to play, and who to sit.

Week 5 in the NFL has some great games ahead, and some bad ones. These teams have good opportunity against their opponents defense.

Cincinnati Bengals: Start your Bengals running backs this week against the Patriots. Ranked at 23rd in rushing defense, the Patriots are having issues stopping their opponents on the ground. Through four games this season the Patriots have given up 519 yards and 4.4 yards per carry. At 129 rushing yards per game allowed, this patriots defense is soft. I would feel very good about starting Giovani Bernard in your running back slot, and wouldn't have an issue using Jeremy Hill as a flex. The Pats have had a better passing defense, but of course they have. You can run on them.

Philadelphia Eagles: Start your Eagles running backs against the Rams this week as well. This should be a get right game for LeSean McCoy and a good game for Darren Sproles too. The Rams are the 30th ranked rushing defense so far this season. Having given up 465 yards in only three games so far this season, and a robust 5.1 yards per carry, makes this a juicy match up for the Eagles under performing backs.155 yards per game and four touchdowns allowed on the season leaves hope that the Eagles can run and score on Sunday.

New York Giants: Start all of your Giants against the Atlanta Falcons this week. The Falcons have a terrible defense. The Giants have a new offense that has looked great the last few weeks. Ranked 28th against the run, the Falcons are giving up 4.5 yards per carry and have given up 615 yards through their first four games. Allowing 155 yards a game and having given up an astounding NINE touchdowns in four games, the Falcons are like a bonus round for Rashad Jennings. The passing defense for Atlanta isn't any better. Ranked 30th against the pass, Atlanta is giving up 276 yards per game through the air. They have allowed 14 passing plays of 20+ yards, and 5 40+ yard plays. Victor Cruz should be salsa dancing all over the field. Keep an eye on what Odell Beckham does if he plays as well. Atlanta could prove to be a soft landing spot for the rookie.

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have a mess in the back, so throw it out front. They play the New York Jets in week 5, and if you are going to score against them, the air seems like the way to go about it. The Jets have allowed only 228 yards a game, but they have given up 9 passing touchdowns on the season. Some of the lack of yardage for their opponents can be accounted for by understanding that the Jets offense has been bad, giving up short fields a lot to opposing teams. Phillip Rivers, Keenan Allen, and if he's healthy Malcolm Floyd are all good starts against this defense for the Chargers. Antonio Gates is a wildcard, having a great week 2, and not much else. Eddie Royal is a PPR machine the last few weeks, and may be able to keep that going this week against a bad Jets secondary.

Conversely, there are some teams that have bad games on the schedule for week five. Let's take a look at those games as well.

Washington: We all know that the Seahawks defense is good. Ranked 5th against the run, it seems that it may be a long day for Alfred Morris. Allowing only 72 yards a game and only one touchdown through three games, the Seahawks defense is solid against the run. The passing defense is appearing softer so far, but lets recall they only had a bad game against San Diego, where Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates had amazing games. Against Denver and Green Bay, Seattle played much tougher, dominating seven of eight quarters in those games. A lapse in the fourth quarter against Denver allowed them to get back in it. That being said, Kirk Cousins is no Peyton Manning. Coming off a terrible game against the Giants in week 4, cousins threw four interceptions last week, and only completed 57.6% of his passes. Add to that a lost fumble, and this certainly wasn't a game to write home about. Left tackle Trent Williams is reportedly still banged up as well, not a good thing against a solid Seattle front line. If you have a choice, I would sit my Washington players this week in favor of better match ups.

Detroit Lions: The Detroit Lions running backs have a tough draw this week against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills come into week 5 with the 3rd ranked rush defense in the NFL. Allowing only 71.5 yards per game on the ground and no touchdowns, running against them seems to be a monumental task. Add to that the fact that Joique Bell and Theo Riddick are unlikely to play, and this match up looks even worse for the Lions. They signed George Winn off of their practice squad this week. Reggie Bush is a decent back, but if this is a one man show, I like the odds of the Bills defense.

Denver Broncos: Sit Montee Ball. Underwhelming so far this season, this is not likely to be his breakout week for the Broncos who play the Arizona Cardinals in week 5. Arizona is the 4th ranked rush defense in the league, giving up only 71.7 yards a game and 2.9 yards per carry. In fact I would not be surprised if this week you saw a bit more of C.J. Anderson in the backfield if Ball struggles early. Someone has to spark the running game, and Ball may be running out of time.

Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis has a tandem of running backs at their disposal. Trent Richardson, while looking slightly better last week, has been an overall disappointment. He has been averaging 3.3 yards a carry, actually an improvement, and 50.8 yards per game. This week the Colts play the Baltimore Ravens, the 7th ranked run defense. Giving up only 82.5 yards a game and only allowing 2 rushing touchdowns on the season, this week figures to be a difficult game for Richardson. Ahmad Bradshaw has been getting his fair share of the work out of the Colts backfield, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, but was a little banged up after last weeks game. Bradshaw was a full participant in practice on Thursday and Friday, so expect him to play, but the Ravens are a good defensive unit, and it won't be easy.

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers backfield is a mess. Losing Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead was not a good thing for the Chargers rushing attack. The likes of Donald Brown have a very difficult match up ahead of them in the New York Jets. The Jets are 1st against the run, allowing only 63.2 yards a game and only 1 touchdown on the season.  I wouldn't play any of the Chargers running backs this week.




Thursday, October 2, 2014

Break It Like Beckham

The time may be here. The sleeper you have been waiting for at wide receiver is ready to go. Odell Beckham Jr. is practicing for the Giants.

Beckham had a tumultuous off season after being taken with the 12th overall pick in this years draft. Friction within the organization and a hamstring injury had left his value at nearly nothing. But in week 5, Beckham is back at practice, and ready to fill out your bench as a super secret sleeper for fantasy football.

The Giants have a new offensive coordinator this year in Ben McAdoo. Previously with the Green Bay Packers, McAdoo has installed a new offense for the Giants. After a bumpy week 1, Eli Manning has looked fantastic throwing 8 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions in his last 3 games. The McAdoo offense features lots of passing from Manning which will benefit Beckham once he hits the field.

A key to Beckham's success will be the ability to stay healthy. If he is on the field, you can expect production in what could be a high powered offense styled after the highly effective Packers. Standing 5'11 and weighing 198 at the combine, Beckham is not a huge receiver, but he is certainly fast running a 4.43 40 yard dash. His senior season he caught 57 passes for 1117 yards and 8 touchdowns. add to that the possibility he may see some jet sweep and end around plays to gain you some rushing yards, and the possibility that he will be used on return plays, and Beckham has some additional opportunities to score for you in fantasy.

The upcoming schedule for Beckham and the Giants looks rather enticing. For the rest of the season the Giants only play 3 top 10 pass defenses. Two games against the Eagles (257.5y/g) and the Cowboys (271.2 y/g) are some juicy match ups. The only difficult match ups as I see them are at Seattle in week 10, and home against San Francisco in week 11.

I would call Beckham a definite speculative add. Cutting a starter is not warranted here, but if you are carrying a second QB and your main guy went through his bye already, or if you have a player that is sitting on your bench and you don't know when you would play him, drop that zero and add our new hero.

Strategy Scoop: Streaming

This is the first in what I hope to be a long running series where we examine some strategies for helping you win your fantasy leagues year after year. This week we look at roster moves and the streamer.

I am a streamer. I stream lots of positions. Kickers, defenses, tight end, and even in one league quarterbacks. One thing I have learned over the years is that I am usually not alone. There are others out there. Other players fighting every week for the players that I want to stream. How do you defeat this? Planning ahead.

This year it has become very obvious that there are some bad teams. Oakland and Jacksonville are among these teams. A habit I have gotten into is looking ahead two to three weeks to see what match ups are coming up. You will often find that there are some good match ups involving a team like Oakland, and that a team will have a decent game coming this week. with this you can grab a team that will likely do well for you this week, and be set up for the following week as well with likely the best match up of the following week.

Thinking ahead like this will allow you to get a jump on your competition and stay a step ahead of the curve. I suggest that you keep tabs on your favorite two or three selections and maybe carry two defenses, constantly churning one of them per week to grab the best match up for the next week. This will also allow you the flexibility to have another selection made in case your favorite team to play a defense against will be playing a good defense and will already be owned.

If you think ahead and keep one step in front of your competition, you will be set up for success at a position that can sometimes make or break a week for you.

Friday, September 26, 2014

Garage Sale Denver Area

Taking a look at the Denver Broncos schedule and current offensive rankings, it seems like selling while you can may be a good idea. Remember when the price of gold skyrocketed? If you had a bunch of gold, and sold it all in 2011, you would have made tons of money. Now gold still has value, but it has dropped off since its highs. The same holds true for the Denver offense.

Denver has the second hardest schedule for the 2014 season. This fact has not been lost on me, seeing as I own pieces of their offense on my various teams. In the last week I have started to think about using those players to trade up to players with more favorable situations. This thought started to cross my mind as I watched the Broncos play the Seahawks in week 3 of the season. They were shut down for 3 quarters of the game. Now understood that Seattle has a formidable defense, but Seattle is far from the only difficult task throughout the season.

Looking at the Broncos schedule from after their bye in week for on, the outlook is somewhat bleak for their prospects. Let us examine the data. The defensive rankings are through the third week of the season, so small sample size, but I still think the data is likely applicable.

The Broncos opponents average total defensive ranking is 10.07 for the rest of the season. The low outliers are Kansas City at 19 and Cincinnati at 17, both on the road. Denver already played Kansas City in week 2, putting up 24 points. They only managed 88 yards rushing and did not score on the ground. Peyton Manning was 21-26 for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns. In this game Emmanuel Sanders had 8-108, and 3 different Broncos scored. The yardage production for Manning is slightly lower than you might expect against a supposedly depleted secondary at home. The high outliers are at the Jets (2nd in total D) and at New England (3).

What looks like the best case for the Broncos is the opponents run defense, coming in at an average of 15.3. Weeks 5, 6, and 7 look particularly brutal for their run game, as the worst run defense they face is 6th ranked San Francisco. After week 7 it begins to ease up slightly, possibly with some favorable run match ups against the Raiders (31) in weeks 10 and 17, the Rams (29) in week 11, Miami (20) in week 12, and Kansas City (23) in week 13.

The passing defense of Broncos opponents came in at an average of 10.8 rest of season. Only 3 of their opponents are currently ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass defense: Arizona in week 5 (19), Buffalo (26) in week 14, and Cincinnati (17) in week 16. This lends itself to the thought that even with Peyton at the controls, it might be some tough sledding for the Broncos in the passing game. I feel it necessary to note that the passing numbers for Oakland (4) may be flawed as Oakland is the second worst team against the run, so teams do not need to.

No matter what it was going to be difficult to repeat the season Denver had in 2013 in which they set a few offensive records. The difficulty has me interested in getting what I can for my Denver players. After last year, and being so early this year and post bye, you should still be able to get top dollar for many of your Denver guys. I have not been able to find a statistic ranking defense against tight ends, but Julius Thomas has been producing at a high level. I am personally not going to look at trading him where I have him. Emmanuel Sanders is also producing well, having 2 100 yard plus games and averaging 8 catches a game through the first two weeks. If you can sell pretty high on him, do it. If not, holding on to him doesn't seem a bad idea yet.

The rest of the offense is on the block in my leagues. I have been actively seeking a trade for Montee Ball in one league, and would entertain offers for Demaryius given enough value. I don't think I would take much less than another top tier wide receiver and maybe a running back of lower value. Peyton can also bring you a haul. I just traded him in a 2 quarterback league in a 5 player deal giving up Peyton and Alfred Morris and getting back Calvin Johnson, Tony Romo, and DeAndre Hopkins.

If you find the right owner, with the right mix of players, and the right needs, dealing the Denver offense is not a bad idea. You can likely get players to fill holes in your roster, and free yourself from the Broncos match up nightmares.


Thursday, September 25, 2014

Forgot About Pra(ter)

It may seem odd to find a post about a kicker for fantasy football purposes, but when the kicker is likely not owned in your league, and he is on a good team, has a good home field, is highly accurate, and is past his bye, he is a good target to add.

Matt Prater (DEN) was suspended by the NFL for the first 4 games (5 weeks) of the 2014 season. Assuming that the Broncos retain him after his suspension, Prater is a valuable commodity to your fantasy team. Playing for a team that scored 75 touchdowns and attempted 26 field goals last year means that he is likely to be quite a high scoring player for your team.

His kicking situation is fantastic, playing 6 of his remaining games this year in the thin air of Denver. Prater was a very accurate kicker last season making all 75 of his extra points and 25/26 field goal attempts. He is usually one of the first kickers to come off the board in drafts and is just sitting there for the taking.This season he will be available to cunning fantasy players who pounce on the opportunity to scoop him up.

My suggestion is to wait til late in week 5, Sunday morning is the best time, and drop a player that you either don't play, or is not performing if you don't have a bench spot available. You will have a ready-to-drop player in the kicker you play in week 5 to drop and add a player during waivers in week 6.

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Bargain Basement Prices

Starting your season at Seattle, against the Jets, and at Detroit is not exactly a soft landing in a new season for any running back. But this is what awaited Eddie Lacy (GB) at the beginning of the season.
Image source totalpackers.com

Leaving the opener early at Seattle with a concussion, Lacy only managed 34 yards on 12 carries. The Jets allowed him 43 yards on 13 carries. Detroit gave up 36 yards on 11 carries. One thing all these opponents have in common, a strong run defense. He has had a total of 6 catches in these games for 38 yards as well, which isn't adding much value to his stock.

This presents fantasy football players with an opportunity: Get Lacy on the relatively cheap. And if this suits you, the time is now. Starting next week the match ups start to look much better for Lacy. He will suit up against Chicago and Minnesota in the next 2 weeks. If you want to acquire him, it has to be before those games. If Eddie Lacy is going to improve, those are his chances.  If he does improve, the price of getting him will go up, if you can get him at all then.

If you happen to find yourself with a surplus of wide receivers it may behoove you to make an attempt to trade one of them for Lacy. I found myself, after another trade, with a plethora of quality talent at the wide receiver position, and a chance to use one of those guys to get a player that was a first round pick in most fantasy drafts. I offered the Lacy owner in my league Alshon Jeffery, the 3rd or 4th best wide receiver on my team, and a deal was made. This deal may be a little risky, but if you have the talent to spare, this is one of the better gambles to make in my estimation.

Image source espn.com
This same strategy can be applied to the other top running backs. Matt Forte (CHI) has had a slow start, and LeSean McCoy (PHI) had a disappointing game last week against Washington. If the owner of these players in your league is frustrated you may be able to get a heck of a value on a player that is primed to go off. And if they don't like what you offer, counter and see if you can come to an agreement. Bargain basement prices on talented players can only be found if you try.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

The Resurgence of Steve Smith

 Steve Smith has been in the NFL for quite a long time. He played for the Panthers from 2001-2013. This year signing with the Ravens as a free agent. It seems that his new team is allowing him an opportunity to shine once again as a fantasy receiver.
Image source thebaltimorewire.com

After posting his worst numbers since 2010 last year in the Panthers offense, making 64 catches on 110 targets for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns, Smith is having a resurgent year in his first season in Baltimore. Through his first three games in 2014 he has 18 catches on 32 targets for 290 yards and a touchdown. His yards per catch is tied for the third highest in his career so far this season at 16.1, and his yards per game are also the third highest in his career at 96.7.

Smith had an average draft position on ESPN fantasy football of 111. This being the case, he would be someone to target in a trade for either another wide receiver, a mid level running back, or a tight end if his current fantasy team needs some help at that position. His upcoming schedule has some very nice match ups with the likes of the Panthers in week 4, Colts in week 5, Bucs in week 6, and Falcons in week 7. Having a late bye in week 11 is a positive as well. If you trade for him now, you would get 8 serviceable weeks before having to take him out of your lineup for his bye.

The schedule also sets up nicely for smith as the fantasy playoffs begin. The Ravens play the Dolphins in week 14 who have given up 5 passing touchdowns through the first 3 weeks of the season. In week 15 they play Jacksonville who are dead last in passing defense in the league.

Smith would make a nice addition as a wide receiver 2 or flex to a team who is not happy with their current wide receiver situation, with some serious playoff upside.

Monday, September 22, 2014

It's Never Too Early To Start Thinking Playoffs: The Bad

Now that you know who I like for your playoff push, let me tell you about who I don't like. This article will focus on the match ups that I don't like during the fantasy playoffs.

Number one on my list of teams I don't like for the playoffs is the New England Patriots. Their final four games are at San Diego, home for Miami, at the Jets, and home against the Bills. First of all, Tom Brady hasn't quite looked like the Brady of old. Some of this may be due to the lack of overall weapons in the offense, or it could be due to a drop off in his talent. Rob Gronkowski has a history of injuries making his participation late in the season difficult to count on. Other than that, they have a few second year receivers that have a hard time keeping on the field and holding on to the ball when they are playing. Julian Edelman, health permitting, is a bright spot in a PPR league, but he has also been inconsistent in the past. The running back situation is famously unpredictable. Just look at the first two weeks of this season. Shane Vereen had a great week one, and almost nothing in week two. Stevan Ridley has such a history of fumbling, that he may find his way to the bench or off the team at any time. These facts make it hard to trust any of the New England backfield. Add this to the fact that they play what looks like three or four decent defenses in the last four weeks, and it sure makes New England hands off for me.

Next up the San Diego chargers. They play New England at home, Denver at home, at San Francisco, and home for Kansas City. While they play three of four at home, the teams they play all have decent defenses, with Kansas City being the biggest suspect due to losses. Ryan Matthews is already hurt, and has a history, even though he stayed healthy and thrived late last season. Danny Woodhead has had a diminished role so far, and unless it increases with the loss of Matthews, is not a good option. If his role does increase, he makes a good running back two in a PPR league. Malcolm Floyd has had some consistency issues in the past, and is not likely the second or third option in the passing game. Keenan Allen thrived last season after all of the Chargers receivers were hurt, but so far this season has been shut down. Antonio Gates, despite a huge game in week two against the Seahawks, is the elder statesman of the San Diego attack, and I have concerns about his durability. And Ladarius Green needs to find the field to get any consideration. Donald Brown is currently a wildcard. His role will be defined, and likely changed over the next month with Matthews out and when he comes back. This all seems to lend itself to a general dislike of Phillip Rivers as well. If you don't like any of a quarterback's targets, it's difficult to say that you like him. He started last season hot, then lost momentum as the second half of the season featured more running. He had a near flawless game at the Seahawks week two, but that is unlikely to be a weekly occurrence.

Pittsburgh appears next on the list of teams to stay away from for your fantasy playoffs. At Cincinnati, at Atlanta, home for Kansas city, and home against Cincinnati finishes out their season. Cincinnati has a tough defense. Kansas City has one as well if they can remain healthy. Atlanta is likely the weakest defensive match up, but playing in Atlanta is not desirable. Ben Roethlisberger has been a solid NFL quarterback, but is not much of a fantasy option. The best of the players on the Pittsburgh roster are LeVeon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Markus Wheaton. Wheaton is a rookie, and often rookies are not quite ready to be big producers. He may be a decent flex play in a PPR league if his role continues to grow throughout the season. Antonio Brown is fairly match up proof, seeing as he just had a solid game against Joe Haden, one of the leagues best shutdown corner backs. LeVeon Bell is going to cost you a hefty price. He is the workhorse for the Steelers. Good in the running game as well as a viable option to catch passes out of the backfield. Due to price he will be hard to acquire.

Indianapolis is our next team to take a closer look at. At Cleveland, home for Houston, at Dallas, and at Tennessee. That's three of their last four on the road, and the home game they do have is against one heck of a defensive team. The colts are trying to be a power running team under Pep Hamilton, yet they lack the personnel. Trent Richardson has shown nothing in the three seasons he has been in the NFL. TY Hilton is a guy who will get you a few huge games throughout the season, but he is very inconsistent. Reggie Wayne is the best option from the Colts as a wide receiver, making a much better PPR play. Andrew Luck is a solid quarterback with the ability to run or throw, but the price tag is likely to be high as he was a fairly high draft pick at quarterback. Ahmad Bradshaw is the best running back on the Colts. If they can figure this out, and use him well he can be a decent running back two or flex play. Due to his age and injury history he is somewhat of a risky play.

The Miami Dolphins make my list next. Home for Baltimore, at New England, home for Minnesota, and home against the New York Jets. While three of their final four are at home, they play three defenses that are annually among the best. Minnesota in week sixteen is the best of these match ups. Knowshon Moreno is currently out with a dislocated elbow, but if healthy, in shape, and getting the looks he can be a solid running back two or flex play. Problem is that the Dolphins also use Lamar Miller in a committee approach. The receiving corps has two decent options. Mike Wallace has been inconsistent and looks like he may have some chemistry and timing problems with quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Brian Hartline is a decent player in a PPR league, but he is not likely to put up any huge numbers for your team.

The final team we will look at individually in this article is the Denver Broncos. Finishing up the season home against Buffalo, at San Diego, at Cincinnati, and home against Oakland. Given the record setting season last year and the high ownership of the players for the Broncos, it will be difficult and expensive to gain ownership of their players in your leagues. Buffalo has a reasonably stout defense and has a chance to slow down this juggernaut offense. Playing at San Diego, a division rival, is always a tough game, Denver having been beaten last year by the Chargers. Cincinnati has a very good defense and will be a tough match up for the Broncos. If your league does play in week 17, Oakland is quite a good match up for the Broncos. One thing you may consider is to trade your Denver players for some of the players that have the softer schedules included in my article on players to acquire. You may be able to get premium value for your Denver wide receivers and for Peyton Manning.

Special mention goes to the NFC West. The best schedule during the fantasy playoff weeks belongs to the worst offense in the NFC West. The St. Louis Rams play at Washington in week 14, and home against the New York Giants in week 16. These should be good match ups against bad defenses, but the Rams are not a good offensive team. Most of these teams play division games in the last four weeks of the season. I would say that your best be the running backs of these teams if you are looking to any of them. Many of the division games have been decided on ball control and clock management by these teams.

Good luck on making it to your playoffs, and if you get there, DOMINATE!