My Playbook

Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Strategy Scoop: Flex Play

It may seem like common sense, but I have watched players in my leagues, and have myself this season made an easy mistake. The Thursday night games are an outlier on the week , and you must treat them accordingly.

When a team plays on Thursday night, the players from that game are locked down until the following week when waivers process. This leads to a few different situations in which care must be taken to make sure that you make moves with these players that are appropriate for your needs. The first thing to think about is if you want to roster a guy for the week. If you don't intend to play a guy from the Thursday night games, you should probably consider dropping fringe level players that you are not going to play on Thursday to open up more options for the Sunday games.

Now I'm not telling you to drop top level talent on Thursday before the game kicks off, but if you have a 5th running back or receiver that you aren't likely to play unless you will have a definite need for them in the near future. The guys I am talking about are the speculative players that have the Thursday night match up. If you weren't playing them anyways, you can take a chance on getting them back the next week, while opening up more options for this week on Sunday.

The other mistake I see made, and the one I have definitely made myself is leaving a player that has a Thursday night game in my flex spot. If you are playing a flex eligible player in a Thursday night game, DO NOT leave him in your flex spot. When you are playing the Thursday night guys, put them in their appropriate slot. Running backs in the running back spot, receivers in the wide receiver spot. This allows you the maximum flexibility on Sunday in case an unexpected injury pops up late in the week. This happened to me earlier this year when I forgot to move a wide receiver out of my flex spot and would have been able to make a decision between Darren Sproles and Reggie Wayne or Dwayne Allen in my flex spot later in the week. Instead I only had Sproles available to me.

It is a simple move to make, but allowing yourself the maximum flexibility is the best strategy to make your team a winner. A choice between multiple players is always going to be better than being tied down to only one player.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

The Resurgence of Steve Smith

 Steve Smith has been in the NFL for quite a long time. He played for the Panthers from 2001-2013. This year signing with the Ravens as a free agent. It seems that his new team is allowing him an opportunity to shine once again as a fantasy receiver.
Image source thebaltimorewire.com

After posting his worst numbers since 2010 last year in the Panthers offense, making 64 catches on 110 targets for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns, Smith is having a resurgent year in his first season in Baltimore. Through his first three games in 2014 he has 18 catches on 32 targets for 290 yards and a touchdown. His yards per catch is tied for the third highest in his career so far this season at 16.1, and his yards per game are also the third highest in his career at 96.7.

Smith had an average draft position on ESPN fantasy football of 111. This being the case, he would be someone to target in a trade for either another wide receiver, a mid level running back, or a tight end if his current fantasy team needs some help at that position. His upcoming schedule has some very nice match ups with the likes of the Panthers in week 4, Colts in week 5, Bucs in week 6, and Falcons in week 7. Having a late bye in week 11 is a positive as well. If you trade for him now, you would get 8 serviceable weeks before having to take him out of your lineup for his bye.

The schedule also sets up nicely for smith as the fantasy playoffs begin. The Ravens play the Dolphins in week 14 who have given up 5 passing touchdowns through the first 3 weeks of the season. In week 15 they play Jacksonville who are dead last in passing defense in the league.

Smith would make a nice addition as a wide receiver 2 or flex to a team who is not happy with their current wide receiver situation, with some serious playoff upside.

Monday, September 22, 2014

It's Never Too Early To Start Thinking Playoffs: The Bad

Now that you know who I like for your playoff push, let me tell you about who I don't like. This article will focus on the match ups that I don't like during the fantasy playoffs.

Number one on my list of teams I don't like for the playoffs is the New England Patriots. Their final four games are at San Diego, home for Miami, at the Jets, and home against the Bills. First of all, Tom Brady hasn't quite looked like the Brady of old. Some of this may be due to the lack of overall weapons in the offense, or it could be due to a drop off in his talent. Rob Gronkowski has a history of injuries making his participation late in the season difficult to count on. Other than that, they have a few second year receivers that have a hard time keeping on the field and holding on to the ball when they are playing. Julian Edelman, health permitting, is a bright spot in a PPR league, but he has also been inconsistent in the past. The running back situation is famously unpredictable. Just look at the first two weeks of this season. Shane Vereen had a great week one, and almost nothing in week two. Stevan Ridley has such a history of fumbling, that he may find his way to the bench or off the team at any time. These facts make it hard to trust any of the New England backfield. Add this to the fact that they play what looks like three or four decent defenses in the last four weeks, and it sure makes New England hands off for me.

Next up the San Diego chargers. They play New England at home, Denver at home, at San Francisco, and home for Kansas City. While they play three of four at home, the teams they play all have decent defenses, with Kansas City being the biggest suspect due to losses. Ryan Matthews is already hurt, and has a history, even though he stayed healthy and thrived late last season. Danny Woodhead has had a diminished role so far, and unless it increases with the loss of Matthews, is not a good option. If his role does increase, he makes a good running back two in a PPR league. Malcolm Floyd has had some consistency issues in the past, and is not likely the second or third option in the passing game. Keenan Allen thrived last season after all of the Chargers receivers were hurt, but so far this season has been shut down. Antonio Gates, despite a huge game in week two against the Seahawks, is the elder statesman of the San Diego attack, and I have concerns about his durability. And Ladarius Green needs to find the field to get any consideration. Donald Brown is currently a wildcard. His role will be defined, and likely changed over the next month with Matthews out and when he comes back. This all seems to lend itself to a general dislike of Phillip Rivers as well. If you don't like any of a quarterback's targets, it's difficult to say that you like him. He started last season hot, then lost momentum as the second half of the season featured more running. He had a near flawless game at the Seahawks week two, but that is unlikely to be a weekly occurrence.

Pittsburgh appears next on the list of teams to stay away from for your fantasy playoffs. At Cincinnati, at Atlanta, home for Kansas city, and home against Cincinnati finishes out their season. Cincinnati has a tough defense. Kansas City has one as well if they can remain healthy. Atlanta is likely the weakest defensive match up, but playing in Atlanta is not desirable. Ben Roethlisberger has been a solid NFL quarterback, but is not much of a fantasy option. The best of the players on the Pittsburgh roster are LeVeon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Markus Wheaton. Wheaton is a rookie, and often rookies are not quite ready to be big producers. He may be a decent flex play in a PPR league if his role continues to grow throughout the season. Antonio Brown is fairly match up proof, seeing as he just had a solid game against Joe Haden, one of the leagues best shutdown corner backs. LeVeon Bell is going to cost you a hefty price. He is the workhorse for the Steelers. Good in the running game as well as a viable option to catch passes out of the backfield. Due to price he will be hard to acquire.

Indianapolis is our next team to take a closer look at. At Cleveland, home for Houston, at Dallas, and at Tennessee. That's three of their last four on the road, and the home game they do have is against one heck of a defensive team. The colts are trying to be a power running team under Pep Hamilton, yet they lack the personnel. Trent Richardson has shown nothing in the three seasons he has been in the NFL. TY Hilton is a guy who will get you a few huge games throughout the season, but he is very inconsistent. Reggie Wayne is the best option from the Colts as a wide receiver, making a much better PPR play. Andrew Luck is a solid quarterback with the ability to run or throw, but the price tag is likely to be high as he was a fairly high draft pick at quarterback. Ahmad Bradshaw is the best running back on the Colts. If they can figure this out, and use him well he can be a decent running back two or flex play. Due to his age and injury history he is somewhat of a risky play.

The Miami Dolphins make my list next. Home for Baltimore, at New England, home for Minnesota, and home against the New York Jets. While three of their final four are at home, they play three defenses that are annually among the best. Minnesota in week sixteen is the best of these match ups. Knowshon Moreno is currently out with a dislocated elbow, but if healthy, in shape, and getting the looks he can be a solid running back two or flex play. Problem is that the Dolphins also use Lamar Miller in a committee approach. The receiving corps has two decent options. Mike Wallace has been inconsistent and looks like he may have some chemistry and timing problems with quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Brian Hartline is a decent player in a PPR league, but he is not likely to put up any huge numbers for your team.

The final team we will look at individually in this article is the Denver Broncos. Finishing up the season home against Buffalo, at San Diego, at Cincinnati, and home against Oakland. Given the record setting season last year and the high ownership of the players for the Broncos, it will be difficult and expensive to gain ownership of their players in your leagues. Buffalo has a reasonably stout defense and has a chance to slow down this juggernaut offense. Playing at San Diego, a division rival, is always a tough game, Denver having been beaten last year by the Chargers. Cincinnati has a very good defense and will be a tough match up for the Broncos. If your league does play in week 17, Oakland is quite a good match up for the Broncos. One thing you may consider is to trade your Denver players for some of the players that have the softer schedules included in my article on players to acquire. You may be able to get premium value for your Denver wide receivers and for Peyton Manning.

Special mention goes to the NFC West. The best schedule during the fantasy playoff weeks belongs to the worst offense in the NFC West. The St. Louis Rams play at Washington in week 14, and home against the New York Giants in week 16. These should be good match ups against bad defenses, but the Rams are not a good offensive team. Most of these teams play division games in the last four weeks of the season. I would say that your best be the running backs of these teams if you are looking to any of them. Many of the division games have been decided on ball control and clock management by these teams.

Good luck on making it to your playoffs, and if you get there, DOMINATE!

Friday, September 19, 2014

It's Never Too Early To Start Thinking Playoffs: The Good

I know it's only week 3, but it's never too early to set yourself up for playoff success. I have compiled a list of teams that have good and bad schedules through the fantasy playoffs. This list includes a lot of players that will do well during the regular season as well, but this will focus on weeks 14-17 on the NFL schedule. Today's post is for the players and teams with good match ups for the fantasy playoffs.

First up on my most desired team list is the Detroit Lions. Detroit's Playoff schedule is quite favorable. Home against Tampa Bay, home against Minnesota, at Chicago, and at Green Bay. If your playoffs go week 14-16, all of these match ups are good, and week 17 is solid as well. Tampa bay has looked terrible. Minnesota is a mess, and Chicago can't stop the run and just lost Tillman for the year. Now I know you may not be able to wrestle Megatron or Stafford away from their owner, but Detroit's high powered offense has plenty of weapons for you to look for. Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, and Golden Tate are all primed for great seasons. The playoff match ups make them some of the more desirable players for me. You may also want to keep an eye on Eric Ebron, just in case he starts to get it and gets involved. At this point in the season, all these guys, with exception of Megatron, shouldn't cost you too much, and will set you up to win that championship.

Second up on the list is the Dallas Cowboys. Yes I realize that Tony Romo is a huge choke artist. but their schedule sets up well for the playoffs. At Chicago, at Philadelphia, home for Indianapolis, and at Washington. I know that three of the final four are on the road, but so far the only one that looks like they have any sort of defense is the Eagles, and that isn't saying much with this list. Dez Bryant falls under a similar list as Calvin Johnson does, might be too expensive, but Terrance Williams may not cost you too much, and may not even be rostered in your leagues. Jason Witten has not been very involved so far, and should come fairly cheap. DeMarco Murray will cost you a pretty penny, but Lance Dunbar is likely floating around the waiver wire, and if you can afford a roster spot on your bench, Murray has quite an injury history. As for Tony Romo, two disappointing weeks will likely leave him costing less, but lets remember he is a choke artist of the highest order.

Third we have the Chicago Bears. Mark Trestman is apparently the offensive genius that he is made out to be. Just look at what Josh McCown did in week 3 against the mighty Atlanta defense. Chicago plays Dallas at home, New Orleans at home, Detroit at home, and at Minnesota their final four games of the season. All of these teams have suspect secondaries and three of them have trouble with stopping the run. Guys like Marshall and Forte might be in that too expensive category, but with Alshon Jeffery currently nursing a hamstring injury, if you can offer his current team owner a solid starting option, he may be willing to part with him. Martellus Bennett has been a big part of the offense in the first two weeks. Sure some of that may be due to the fact that Jeffery has been slowed, but he is putting up solid numbers so far. Jay Cutler is a bit of a wildcard. He has a history of injuries, and the offensive line he is behind has been bad and is dealing with some injuries, but if you don't have Peyton, Rodgers, or Brees he might be a guy you look to pick up. Chicago also has a fairly good schedule all season.

Next up the Atlanta Falcons. Fresh off a 56-14 drubbing of the Tampa Bay Bucs, these guys are going to be hot. Julio Jones is an absolute monster when he is healthy. Atlanta plays at Green Bay, home against Pittsburgh, at New Orleans, and home against Carolina to finish the season. Obviously Carolina is not a great matchup, but the rest look good. Roddy White missed the Tampa Bay game, which may make trading for him much cheaper. Harry Douglas left that game with an injury, but hes a flex option if healthy at the end of the season. Devin Hester is another to keep an eye on. If your league rules give points for kick returner touchdowns, he is obviously a threat to take one to the house at any time, and has been working on offense a lot more than expected. Not quite sure what to make of the running back position with Atlanta. Stephen Jackson as the lead back is at the point of a running back career where he is over the hill. He dealt with injuries last season, and hasn't done a ton so far this year, although he did score against the Bucs. Devonta Freeman is believed to be the handcuff for Jackson, but I'm not sure I want to roster any of the backs from Atlanta. Give me the wide receivers and Matty Ice.

The Philadelphia Eagles are next on my list of teams I'd like to own. Week 14 is a tough match up against the Seahawks, although it is at home. After that they are home against Dallas, at Washington, and at the Giants. The latter of these matchups, even with two road games, looks fantastic for your playoffs. There are plenty of options at wide receiver and tight end with the Eagles. Assuming health, Jeremy Maclin is fast and can score at any moment. If Riley Cooper can get on the same page as Nick Foles, he is a big receiver who can do well in close situations, or catch the occasional long bomb. Zac Ertz at tight end is a good red zone target for Foles as well. LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles are a dynamic duo out of the backfield. Sproles is coming off a huge game in week two, and the price is going to be high, but he is a perfect fit for the Chip Kelly offense. McCoy will also likely be expensive to trade for since he likely went in the top 5 picks in your draft. If not can I play in your leagues?

Then we have the Carolina Panthers. At New Orleans, home versus Tampa Bay, home versus Cleveland, and at Atlanta round out their playoff schedule. I have a few concerns with the Panthers offense, but their schedule is good so you may want to acquire some of their players. Top of the list is Cam Newton. His track record is excellent. Top 5 fantasy quarterback every year. Solid passer, and gets you rushing yards and touchdowns. Greg Olsen, good tight end. Kelvin Benjamin, good receiver. Needs to soften up those stone hands, but one of the most NFL ready receivers I've seen. These are the guys I would look to own. Keep an eye on Jason Avant, but he's not currently on my radar. The running back situation in Carolina is currently a quagmire. Jonathan Stewart is the only one healthy. That seems a little ironic, dontcha think? and Tolbert and Newton are goal line touchdown vultures. I wouldn't make a huge effort to roster a Carolina running back. If you have a bench spot available, Stewart or DeAngelo may be worth stashing, but not to drop someone more useful.

The Green Bay Packers make my list next.  High powered offense. Home against Atlanta, at buffalo, at Tampa Bay, and home against the Lions rounds out the season. Aaron Rodgers, if you didn't draft him, you probably aren't getting him. Eddie Lacy, off to a slow start, but due to his high draft position, will probably be expensive. Jordy Nelson went for over 200 yards last week and Randall Cobb had two touchdowns.Prices for these guys are going to be high. It's not a secret that Green Bay has a good offense. The guy to watch is Davante Adams. It is seeming like he has taken over the third wide receiver spot for Green Bay. This offense is definitely good enough to support a third wide receiver and at least three of the playoff matchups feature secondaries that will not be likely to keep up with the Pack's attack. The only tight end to have any fantasy points for Green Bay after their first two games is Andrew Quarless, and its not much. Keep an eye on what develops, but as of now, no tight end with the Packers is worth snagging.


The Washington team is next. I'm on board with not using their name, as many find it offensive, and I am not interested in using an offensive term here. Home against St. Louis, at the Giants, home against Philadelphia, home against Dallas. St. Louis is the outlier here, possessing the best defense of the late season opponents for Washington. Kirk Cousins is the quarterback currently after the injury to Robert Griffin III. He got some starts last year, and had mixed results. the Jay Gruden offense seems like it will be a good fit for him, but time will tell. In relief of RG3 in week two, Cousins did well. It is likely that he is available or would be cheap to acquire, but this one is a gamble for sure. Pierre Garçon is a quality player and will likely be more involved than he was in week two. You could try to use the week two stats where he only had one catch to buy low on him. DeSean Jackson hurt his AC joint in his shoulder. This often can happen when there is a dislocation of the shoulder and makes it hard to reach up. If this heals up well, he should be just fine, but try to use that to drive his cost down. Jackson is a legit deep threat and can hit a home run at any time. In a standard league Alfred Morris is a workhorse back. He piles up yardage, but often in the past has lost goal line work to Roy Helu. I would not own Helu myself. He will have a game or two that are great. If you know when, can you tell me? Niles Paul was great in week two. Not sure what is going to happen when Jordan Reed gets back. The Bengals did use two tight end sets in Gruden's offense in the past, so that isn't out of the question. The lack of defense for Washington will lead to the high possibility that they will be in shootouts or be behind a lot. This is a knock down for Morris, but he will still get his carries. If Griffin comes back, I personally want no part of him, and it knocks all the other players except Morris down a notch for me.

Last but not least for me, the New Orleans Saints. The Saints schedule finishes home against Carolina, at Chicago, home against Atlanta, and at Tampa Bay. Drew Brees is off to a slow start. This may help his price, but since he was likely a top 3 drafted quarterback in your leagues, his price will remain high. Jimmy Graham is an amazing player, and he will also cost you an amazing amount if you even could make a deal for him. Of the wide receivers, the only one I have any real interest in at the moment is Brandin Cooks. In a PPR league, cooks should catch a lot of balls. He is likely to be used on some bubble screens and is a good target down the field as well and is also quite fast and can make big plays at any time. The running back situation in New Orleans is always tricky. To start the season Mark Ingram was doing well. Then he broke his hand. See if you can get him on the cheap from his owner in case he resumes the same role he was playing the first two weeks of the season. Pierre Thomas caught a lot of balls last season, and through the first two weeks of this year is averaging 4.5 catches per game. Khiry Robinson will have an increased presence in the offense with Ingram out, but when he is back, its not certain who will have what roles. I would try to get Thomas on the cheap in a PPR league, and Ingram cheap. Robinson was likely picked up on waivers this week and his team owner will likely not want to give him up before he sees what kind of usage he will be getting.

This brings us to the end of my teams and guys you want to get list. In the coming days I will be posting a list of the guys and teams I think you should avoid. Good Luck this weekend and happy shopping!