Forsett It, And Forget It

The 2014 season had some surprising characters come to the forefront of the NFL story. In the wake of the Ray Rice scandal that rocked both the league, and the Baltimore Ravens, Justin Forsett is one of those characters. That combined with a few other factors make him a guy I want on my teams in 2015.

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Forsett racked up 235 carries during the 2014 season, turning them into 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on the ground. That made him the 5th ranked back in yards. He added 44 receptions for 263 yards to his solid rushing totals. Using Bob Lung's quality game consistency stats, www.ffconsistency.com, Forsett had 81% consistency rating, good for a tie for 7th with Marshawn Lynch.

This off season the Ravens have added Mark Trestman as their offensive coordinator. Trestman is

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generally thought of as an offensive genius, and for the last few seasons was the mastermind behind the Chicago Bears offense. What the Bears, and more specifically Matt Forte, did at the running back position leads to much excitement for me. Over the Trestman years in Chicago, Forte was a PPR juggernaut. During the 2013 and 2014 seasons Forte had 2377 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. Add to that 225 targets in the passing game, resulting in 176 catches for 1402 yards and 7 receiving touchdowns. Combined that is 3779 yards and 22 touchdowns over 2 seasons. With Forsett showing that he can catch passes, this leaves his ceiling very high in PPR formats.

The Ravens schedule on first look, seemed to be a somewhat difficult one, opening the season with 3 of 4 on the road. But when you look at last seasons defensive rankings against the run for their opponents it doesn't look so bad. Opening the year at Denver is not a Positive thing for Forsett and the Ravens, but it gets better after that. For the season they will only face 4 top 10 ranked run defenses in 2015, and San Francisco is suspect given all their losses on the defensive side of the ball. The average rank of run defenses they will face in the upcoming season is 19, in the bottom half of the rankings.

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Forsett should have good value. Fantasy Pros has Forsett ranked 35 overall, and running back 16. In the MFL 10 and 25's he is going at 33 overall, and has an ADP of 35.13. This should make him a late third or early 4th round selection for you in your redraft leagues. Such great value for a guy allows you to take either a top tier running back in round 1, and by the time you get to the early fourth round you could have a top back and 2 top wide receivers, using Forsett to back fill your starting skill position players with a high ceiling guy.

Practice Report Round Up Week 8

Week 8 brings us some familiar names on the practice reports, some new additions, and a few guys getting back in action. Here is the list of guys you might care about for your fantasy games this week.

John Brown (ARI) is probable after being limited in practice this week. Brown may make a good fill in for injured wide receivers or bye week fill in. The Cardinals play against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday. The Eagles have the 23rd ranked pass defense. This game may see the Cardinals put the ball in the air more as Carson Palmer has not appeared on the practice report himself this week.

Harry Douglas (ATL) is a welcome addition back to a struggling Falcons offense. The bad news is that he can't play offensive line. Douglas is a good third option for the Falcons, but Matt Ryan has had little time to make the read to get to Douglas. Detroit has one of the best defensive units so far this season, so I personally wouldn't be playing Douglas.

Owen Daniels (BAL) is out this week after having some "cleanup" done on his knee. No other viable option exists with the Ravens for fantasy purposes, so go fine yourself a waiver guy like maybe Andrew Quarless from Green Bay or Luke Willson or Cooper Helfet from the Seahawks.

Fred Jackson (BUF) is out for a few weeks. Some estimates are 2-3 weeks, or as many as 6 with a groin injury. In the absence of both Jackson and CJ Spiller there isn't a consensus on whether Anthony Dixon or Bryce Brown are the best play. Take your shot this week, or just don't play any Buffalo running back this week. The Bills play the stingy run defense of the Jets this week, so caution may be the best option.

Philly Brown (CAR) is out this week with a concussion. It is unlikely you were playing Brown, but he does return kicks, so if you were playing him in a league that gives credit for this, you won't have him to score for you this week.

Chris Ogbonnaya (CAR) is questionable this week with a groin injury against the Seattle Seahawks. The Panthers running back situation is its usual mess, with anyone who is anyone banged up. Jonathan Stewart is getting the start this week, but with the 2 starting guards out for the Panthers, I wouldn't feel good about starting any of their backs.

Fozzy Whitaker (CAR) is out this week. Part of the mess of injured Panthers running backs, Whitaker will not be available to you this week.

AJ Green (CIN) is questionable this week. Having already missed time with a toe injury this season, this is not a surprise to any Green owner. He was heard to say last week that he was playing this week, but was only able to do conditioning this week at practice. I wouldn't count on him playing, and even if he does, there is no way to know how effective he would be. I would look for better options this week.

Reggie Bush (DET) is listed as doubtful this week with an ankle injury. With Joique Bell and Theo Riddick both healthy, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense for the Lions to play Bush this week. Riddick might be a good addition if you are weak at running back, as the Lions play against the terrible defense of the Atlanta Falcons this week.

Calvin Johnson (DET) was a limited participant in practice this week. According to multiple reports on Friday night, it is unlikely the Lions will play Johnson this week. If they do, you can be pretty confident that he will be able to contribute, as the Lions have found a way to be competitive so far in his absence. The confounding issue is that this game is an afternoon game in London, and starts at 9:30 am eastern, 6:30 am pacific. If you go to bed with Johnson in your lineup, you better be up to make sure he plays.

Theo Riddick (DET) is listed as probable for the Lions this week. In the absence of Reggie Bush, Riddick will likely get the workload of the second running back for the Lions. In week 6 when bush was inactive, Riddick was a big contributor in the Lions passing game against the Vikings. He had 5 catches for 75 yards and a score, adding slightly to that with 3 rushes for 6 yards. Riddick is a good hail mary at running back against the Falcons. If Detroit can get a big lead, it is likely that Riddick will see much of the work. He will likely make a good one week option for a desperate team.

Eric Ebron (DET) is out this week against the Falcons. Missing his second game in a row for the Lions with a hamstring injury, if you were playing Ebron, time to get another option.

Joseph Fauria (DET) is bad at being a pet owner. Fauria will miss another game with an ankle injury, now famously, sustained trying to stop his dog from peeing in the house. I feel bad for Fauria, but it is one of the better weird injury stories.

Brandon Pettigrew (DET) is listed as doubtful for the Lions this week. The third tight end for the Lions to be unlikely to play this week, Pettigrew has a foot injury. Having almost fallen off the fantasy football map, it is unlikely that you were playing Pettigrew anyways, but if you were, unlikely this week.

James Starks (GB) is probable for Sunday after being limited in practice all week with an ankle injury. It is unclear if Starks will continue to get the workload he was getting in the past few games seeing as he is hurt, but he has been getting a near equal share of the work and did score last week. Keep an eye on the inactives list to be sure, but Lacy seems like the better option this week for the Pack.  This is also the Sunday night game, so it makes it more difficult to wait to see what Starks status will be.

Trent Richardson (IND) did not participate in practice this week and is listed as questionable for Sunday with a hamstring injury. Richardson left last weeks game early and has not been on the field since. This is a late game on Sunday, so I would make other plans if you have Richardson in your starting lineup.

Reggie Wayne (IND) is out for Sunday against the Steelers. After suffering an elbow injury, Wayne is likely to miss a few weeks. A possible replacement in the Colts lineup is either Hakeem Nicks or Donte Moncrief.

Toby Gerhart (JAX) was a full participant in practice Friday. It is unclear what Gerhart's role will be with the Jags on Sunday, but he was unimpressive in his previous appearances for Jacksonville. This one is your judgement call.

Donnie Avery (KC) is out this week for the Chiefs with a groin injury. Not a big fantasy name, you likely don't have Avery as a regular member of your squad, but if you did, take him out.

Shane Vereen (NE) missed Friday practice with an illness. Head coach Bill Belichick is famous for listing guys on the injury report possibly erroneously, but it is possible that Vereen will not play. Keep an eye on the inactives Sunday. Jonas Gray is a good name to keep in mind if Vereen is out.

Jimmy Graham (NO) was limited in practice this week with a shoulder injury. Graham was active last week, but only got 2 targets. Being the night game on Sunday makes him a difficult decision. It is possible that if you wait on him and he is inactive you could gamble on Gavin Escobar or Niles Paul in the Monday night game, but unlikely you have a better option that Graham. Because he played last week, it is likely he would play this week after being able to participate in practice at all.


Pierre Thomas (NO) is out this week for the Saints with rib and shoulder injuries. The logical replacement for Thomas in the Saints offense is Travaris Cadet. Likely available, if you want to play a Saint against the Packers 31st ranked run defense, Cadet will assume the Thomas role.

Khiry Robinson (NO) is out this week with an arm injury. This bolsters the role for Mark Ingram for the Saints. Ingram is a great play this week as the only running back surviving for the Saints that actually runs most of the time.

Eric Decker (NYJ) was limited in practice this week for the Jets. This will likely be the case for most, if not all, of the season. Keep an eye on the inactives for Sunday as Decker has missed time already this year, but if you have been playing him, plan on continuing.

Darren Sproles (PHI) was a full participant in practice for the Eagles. Officially listed as questionable with a knee injury, keep your eye on the inactives and make your educated decision.

Vincent Jackson (TB) is questionable for the Buccaneers after being limited all week in practice. Widely expected to play, you can likely pencil Jackson into your lineup Sunday, but make sure to check inactives Sunday morning.

Shonn Greene (TEN) was a full participant in practice for the Titans. Muddying up the running back situation for Tennessee, Greene will likely be in a backfield with a disappointing Bishop Sankey on Sunday. Currently there is no solid information on who will have what workload, so playing either guy is a gamble. Adding to that the Titans are starting Zach Mettenberger this week for the first time. The Titans may decide that it is time to see what the youth of their team can do together, so tread carefully with Greene.

Robert Griffin III (WAS) was a limited participant in practice this week. Being called a game time decision by head coach Jay Gruden, it is possible Griffin returns to play this week. Being the Monday night game makes it nearly impossible to wait to see, but you may want to stash RG3 if you have faith left in him.

That brings this look at the Friday practice reports to a close. Remember the early Sunday London game, and to keep a close eye on the inactives for your players. Good luck this week!

Match Up Monsters And Misses

Week 7 in the NFL has some fantastic match ups for individual units on offense, and some match ups that look to be more on the negative side for offenses. Without further ado, your match up monsters and misses.

The Good:

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Baltimore Ravens running backs should be able to put up some numbers this week against the Atlanta Falcons 27th ranked run defense. The trick is to figure out how to rank the Ravens backs. So far it seems that the pecking order is Justin Forsett followed by Bernard Pierce, with Lorenzo Taliaferro third string. If you have him, Forsett is the only one I would be confident playing this week as the role for the other two has been minimal and inconsistent. The Falcons are allowing 140.2 yards per game and have given up 12 touchdowns on the season to opposing running backs. You could gamble on one of the other two as a flex that may get some goal line work, but that would be purely a gamble in my opinion.

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New England Patriots versus the Jets on Thursday night sets up to be a big game for the Pats offense. The run game is an enigma with the injury to Stevan Ridley and the constant shifting by coach Bill Belichick. The Jets allow 92 yards per game and have only given up 2 touchdowns on the ground this year, but in the last 2 weeks they have allowed the opposing number 1 back to gain 100 yards. The passing defense of the Jets does not fare as well, allowing 235 yards per game and having given up 15 touchdowns on the season with only 1 interception. This probably the easiest start of the year if you have Tom Brady. Rob Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell  are also good starts for your fantasy teams. Julian Edelman should be his usual self, a solid flex play in a PPR league.

The Miami Dolphins and the Chicago Bears play each other in week 7, and should be able to put up good passing numbers against each other. The Dolphins give up 221.6 yards per game through the air, and have given up 10 touchdowns versus making 3 interceptions so far this season. This bodes well for Jay Cutler. The Bears have tall wide receivers that could find themselves in mismatch situations against the shorter Dolphins corners. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Martellus Bennett are all good starts against the undersized Dolphins this week. On the flip side Chicago gives up 246.2 yards per game and also 10 touchdowns on the season, but has made 8 interceptions already. This makes Ryan Tannehill a more risky start, but elevates the value of Mike Wallace. Keep an eye on Jarvis Landry for the Dolphins as well. The rookie has been gaining momentum as of late, catching 6 balls on 8 targets last week for 75 yards and a score.

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A power run game by the Cleveland Browns will look to take it to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Ben Tate is a must start this week against the Jags. Isaiah Crowell is a good flex possibility for a team that ran the ball 36 times against the Steelers last week. Look for that trend to continue for a ball control running team. I would expect the Jags to fall lower than their 19th ranked run defense after the Browns are done with them this week.
week 7. The Jags are giving up 117 yards per game on the ground and have given up 5 rushing touchdowns on the year.

The Houston Texans love them some Arian Foster. After getting routed on the ground by the Browns in week 6, the Pittsburgh Steelers will not be looking forward to the stout Texans running game. The Steelers give up 111.2 yards per game, and have allowed 6 rushing touchdowns on the season. The Texans will feast on the depleted defense of the Steelers Monday night.

The Bad:

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Minnesota Vikings running backs are in for a long week. This week they face the top ranked run defense of the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo is allowing a paltry 67.5 yards per game on the ground, and have not allowed a rushing touchdown on the season. With a rookie quarterback and questionable talent at wide receiver for the Vikings, it seems likely that the Bills will stack the box and dare Teddy Bridgewater to beat them through the air. Sit your Vikings running backs this week.

The Detroit Lions are playing some inspired defense so far this season. Ranked 1 in total defense and 2 against both run and pass, the New Orleans Saints have a monumental task ahead of them. And let us not forget that they will be without the services of Jimmy Graham this week. If you had a good bye week fill in for  Drew Brees last week, you may want to run him out there again this week. Add to that the fact that with the return of Mark Ingram makes the Saints backfield a quagmire once again, I am sitting any of my Saints this week.

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The San Francisco 49ers face off this week against the 4th ranked rush defense of the Denver Broncos in Denver. This is an exceedingly difficult task for the 49ers, who must play in that elevation on a short week. They also have not shown much of a commitment to running with Frank Gore or Carlos Hyde on a consistent basis so far this season. Denver is only allowing 76.5 yards per game on the ground, and has only allowed 5 rushing touchdowns on the season. Sit your 49ers backs this week.

A stout passing defense by the New England Patriots and a lack of talent on the part of the New York Jets on offense makes your Jets players good guys to be on the outside looking in this week. The Pats only allow 208.5 yards per game through the air, and have 7 interceptions on the season so far. They have allowed 10 touchdowns so far, but have stiffened in the last few weeks. If you were playing Geno Smith you are likely in trouble already, but sit him this week. Jace Amaro has been emerging of late, and with some weakness due to injuries in the middle of the Patriots defense may be able to continue his 10 catch for 68 yard and a score performance last week. Eric Decker is your only viable option in the passing game that could have good numbers, but being on Revis island is likely in his future, never a good thing.

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The Carolina Panthers are a mess in the backfield. They have their best match up of the season against the Green Bay Packers 32nd ranked run defense, but who can you trust? They are all hurt. They all get hurt. In my opinion, Cam Newton is the only guy you can trust this week in the run game for the Panthers. And after last week he is seemingly ready to run again. If Kelvin Benjamin is out this week due to his concussion, it's going to be a difficult week for the Panthers. Greg Olsen has been a bright spot this season, and he and Cam are the only ones I would trust this week if Benjamin doesn't play. The Packers are 5th ranked against the pass, possibly because it is so easy to run. This game seems to line up as a bad and banged up run game against a bad run defense, and a bad pass game against a good pass defense. Your guess is as good as mine, but I certainly can't say I like anything in this match up for the Panthers.

Good luck and good decisions this week!

The Resurgence of Steve Smith

 Steve Smith has been in the NFL for quite a long time. He played for the Panthers from 2001-2013. This year signing with the Ravens as a free agent. It seems that his new team is allowing him an opportunity to shine once again as a fantasy receiver.

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After posting his worst numbers since 2010 last year in the Panthers offense, making 64 catches on 110 targets for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns, Smith is having a resurgent year in his first season in Baltimore. Through his first three games in 2014 he has 18 catches on 32 targets for 290 yards and a touchdown. His yards per catch is tied for the third highest in his career so far this season at 16.1, and his yards per game are also the third highest in his career at 96.7.

Smith had an average draft position on ESPN fantasy football of 111. This being the case, he would be someone to target in a trade for either another wide receiver, a mid level running back, or a tight end if his current fantasy team needs some help at that position. His upcoming schedule has some very nice match ups with the likes of the Panthers in week 4, Colts in week 5, Bucs in week 6, and Falcons in week 7. Having a late bye in week 11 is a positive as well. If you trade for him now, you would get 8 serviceable weeks before having to take him out of your lineup for his bye.

The schedule also sets up nicely for smith as the fantasy playoffs begin. The Ravens play the Dolphins in week 14 who have given up 5 passing touchdowns through the first 3 weeks of the season. In week 15 they play Jacksonville who are dead last in passing defense in the league.

Smith would make a nice addition as a wide receiver 2 or flex to a team who is not happy with their current wide receiver situation, with some serious playoff upside.