Forsett It, And Forget It

The 2014 season had some surprising characters come to the forefront of the NFL story. In the wake of the Ray Rice scandal that rocked both the league, and the Baltimore Ravens, Justin Forsett is one of those characters. That combined with a few other factors make him a guy I want on my teams in 2015.

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Forsett racked up 235 carries during the 2014 season, turning them into 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on the ground. That made him the 5th ranked back in yards. He added 44 receptions for 263 yards to his solid rushing totals. Using Bob Lung's quality game consistency stats, www.ffconsistency.com, Forsett had 81% consistency rating, good for a tie for 7th with Marshawn Lynch.

This off season the Ravens have added Mark Trestman as their offensive coordinator. Trestman is

Image source: baltimoresun.com

generally thought of as an offensive genius, and for the last few seasons was the mastermind behind the Chicago Bears offense. What the Bears, and more specifically Matt Forte, did at the running back position leads to much excitement for me. Over the Trestman years in Chicago, Forte was a PPR juggernaut. During the 2013 and 2014 seasons Forte had 2377 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. Add to that 225 targets in the passing game, resulting in 176 catches for 1402 yards and 7 receiving touchdowns. Combined that is 3779 yards and 22 touchdowns over 2 seasons. With Forsett showing that he can catch passes, this leaves his ceiling very high in PPR formats.

The Ravens schedule on first look, seemed to be a somewhat difficult one, opening the season with 3 of 4 on the road. But when you look at last seasons defensive rankings against the run for their opponents it doesn't look so bad. Opening the year at Denver is not a Positive thing for Forsett and the Ravens, but it gets better after that. For the season they will only face 4 top 10 ranked run defenses in 2015, and San Francisco is suspect given all their losses on the defensive side of the ball. The average rank of run defenses they will face in the upcoming season is 19, in the bottom half of the rankings.

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Forsett should have good value. Fantasy Pros has Forsett ranked 35 overall, and running back 16. In the MFL 10 and 25's he is going at 33 overall, and has an ADP of 35.13. This should make him a late third or early 4th round selection for you in your redraft leagues. Such great value for a guy allows you to take either a top tier running back in round 1, and by the time you get to the early fourth round you could have a top back and 2 top wide receivers, using Forsett to back fill your starting skill position players with a high ceiling guy.

Monster Match Ups And Misses Week 8

Week 8 has some huge games that offer up some monster match ups for your fantasy week. On the flip side of that, there are some games that offer up bad match ups for both receivers and running backs on your teams. Let's take a look at this weeks monsters and misses.

The Good

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Detroit Lions have a great match up this week against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have the 27th ranked run defense in the league allowing 137.7 rushing yards per game and 13 rushing touchdowns so far this season. With Reggie Bush and Theo Riddick both being banged up, it might be a great week for Joique Bell this week in London. Along with the bad run defense the Falcons have the 29th ranked pass defense in the league. Allowing 274.4 yards and 8 touchdowns through the air this year, Golden Tate should find himself some good stats this week. Early rumors say that it is possible that Calvin Johnson will play this week, but keep an eye out for practice report updates this week. Being that this game is in London, the start time is early for both east and west coast fantasy players. If Johnson practices this week, you can expect him to play and plug him in your lineup.

The

In week 8 the Seattle Seahawks face off against the once menacing defense of the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers rank 26th against the run, allowing 137.6 yards per game and 8 touchdowns on the season on the ground. Ranking 22nd against the pass, they allow 250.7 yards per game and 15 touchdowns. I look for the Seahawks to recommit to the run this week with Marshawn Lynch. On top of that, it could be a coming out party for Paul Richardson this week against the porous Carolina secondary. Start your Seahwaks, and don't leave Richardson on your waiver wire for the future.

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The Minnesota Vikings have a great match up against the run defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs allow 128.3 yards per game with their 25th ranked run defense. Jerick McKinnon seems to have finally passed Matt Asiata to be the starter and feature back for the Vikings. With 30 rushes for 143 yards the past 2 weeks for the Vikes, McKinnon has had the lions share of the rushes for the Vikings. He is a must start this week against the Bucs.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers wide receivers have to be licking their chops with their match up this week at the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have the 28th ranked pass defense, allowing 270.5 yards per game and have given up 11 touchdowns while only having 3 interceptions. Look for the great offense of the Packers to feast on the Saints defense early and often.

The Philadelphia Eagles square off against the 31st ranked pass defense of the Arizona Cardinals. Allowing 284.8 yards per game, the pass heavy offense of the Eagles should be able to find some success against the Cards. Look for Jeremy Maclin to have a good game, but the sleeper to watch is Jordan Matthews. Look for him to have a breakout game this week. I would expect to see Patrick Peterson on Jeremy Maclin a lot, leaving Mathews in a good spot to score for you.

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A team I would never have expected to be writing about hits up the monsters list next. The Oakland Raiders have a great match up against the 32nd ranked defense of the Cleveland Browns. Giving up a league high 155.5 yards per game, and 5 yards per carry, it is a good week ahead for Darren McFadden. As long as the Raiders follow a game plan that includes attacking Cleveland at their weak point, you should get a solid spot start from McFadden this week.

The Bad:

The Cincinnati Bengals had a tough week 7 against the Colts, and it isn't going to get much easier this week against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are the 7th ranked run defense in the NFL allowing only 87 yards per game on the ground and only 3 touchdowns on the season. This will make for a hard game for Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill in week 8. The Ravens passing defense is ranked 24th in the league allowing 258 yards a game, but they have not allowed a lot of scoring, only 7 passing touchdowns on the season. The Bengals need AJ Green to play this week, or they will have a hard time finding a way to win this game. If Green sits out again this week, or if he isn't 100 percent, I don't like the fantasy output you will likely see from the Bengals.

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St. Louis Rams played a solid game against the Seahawks in week 7, but their special teams was the

difference maker last week. This week I look for their passing attack to have a difficult time against the leagues number 2 pass defense. The Kansas City Chiefs only allow 209 yards per game on the season. They have allowed 11 passing touchdowns on the season, but a young quarterback, and inconsistent play from the wide receivers of the Rams leads me to the desire to sit my Rams wide outs this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars earned their first win of the season in week 7, but in week 8 they get to face the defense that just shut down a much better Chicago offense. The Miami Dolphins are the 4th ranked passing defense and 10th ranked run defense. Allowing 213.3 and 100.3 yards a game respectively, it looks to be a bad match up for the Jags this week. Add to that the revolving door at running back, and a rookie signal caller, and it is hard to find a Jaguar I would want to start on my fantasy team this week.

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This week the Atlanta Falcons face off against what has been one of the best defenses in the league in the Detroit Lions. Detroit has the leagues 2nd ranked run defense at 73.4 yards per game and 3 rushing scores allowed on the season. The Falcons have a mess on their offensive line, having lost 5 players for the season already. On top of that, they have a weird 4 headed monster of a running back by committee going on. Steven Jackson is quite obviously past his prime now, and the other three rely on long touchdown catches to do anything at all. There is not a Falcons running back that I would even roster now, let alone think about starting for my fantasy teams the rest of this season.

Another tough running back situation sets up this week for the San Diego Chargers. Facing the 3rd ranked run defense of the Denver Broncos in week 8, who give up only 74.3 yards per game, and 5 scores on the ground so far on the season, Branden Oliver has a mountain to climb this week, pun not intended. Add to that the short week, this is the Thursday night game, and the fact that it is in Denver in the thin air, and Oliver is a sit in my book. The Chargers don't have another viable option at running back, so Oliver will see workload, but I don't expect him to put up huge numbers.

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The Chicago Bears wide receivers and Jay Cutler have their second difficult match up in a row coming in week 8. They face off against the top ranked New England Patriots pass defense. Allowing only 208 yards per game and 11 touchdowns on the season, the Pats have the luxury of having Revis Island. You can basically take one of the Bears receivers out of the picture, but I am not sure which one it will be. In any case, with dissension amongst the ranks in the Bears offense after last weeks abysmal performance at the Dolphins, I don't see relief in their future. 

That brings us to the end of another monster match ups and misses. Hopefully it has helped to shape informed decisions for your week 8 fantasy lineups. Good luck and go get 'em!

The Resurgence of Steve Smith

 Steve Smith has been in the NFL for quite a long time. He played for the Panthers from 2001-2013. This year signing with the Ravens as a free agent. It seems that his new team is allowing him an opportunity to shine once again as a fantasy receiver.

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After posting his worst numbers since 2010 last year in the Panthers offense, making 64 catches on 110 targets for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns, Smith is having a resurgent year in his first season in Baltimore. Through his first three games in 2014 he has 18 catches on 32 targets for 290 yards and a touchdown. His yards per catch is tied for the third highest in his career so far this season at 16.1, and his yards per game are also the third highest in his career at 96.7.

Smith had an average draft position on ESPN fantasy football of 111. This being the case, he would be someone to target in a trade for either another wide receiver, a mid level running back, or a tight end if his current fantasy team needs some help at that position. His upcoming schedule has some very nice match ups with the likes of the Panthers in week 4, Colts in week 5, Bucs in week 6, and Falcons in week 7. Having a late bye in week 11 is a positive as well. If you trade for him now, you would get 8 serviceable weeks before having to take him out of your lineup for his bye.

The schedule also sets up nicely for smith as the fantasy playoffs begin. The Ravens play the Dolphins in week 14 who have given up 5 passing touchdowns through the first 3 weeks of the season. In week 15 they play Jacksonville who are dead last in passing defense in the league.

Smith would make a nice addition as a wide receiver 2 or flex to a team who is not happy with their current wide receiver situation, with some serious playoff upside.