My Playbook

Showing posts with label football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label football. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Strategy Scoop: Flex Play

It may seem like common sense, but I have watched players in my leagues, and have myself this season made an easy mistake. The Thursday night games are an outlier on the week , and you must treat them accordingly.

When a team plays on Thursday night, the players from that game are locked down until the following week when waivers process. This leads to a few different situations in which care must be taken to make sure that you make moves with these players that are appropriate for your needs. The first thing to think about is if you want to roster a guy for the week. If you don't intend to play a guy from the Thursday night games, you should probably consider dropping fringe level players that you are not going to play on Thursday to open up more options for the Sunday games.

Now I'm not telling you to drop top level talent on Thursday before the game kicks off, but if you have a 5th running back or receiver that you aren't likely to play unless you will have a definite need for them in the near future. The guys I am talking about are the speculative players that have the Thursday night match up. If you weren't playing them anyways, you can take a chance on getting them back the next week, while opening up more options for this week on Sunday.

The other mistake I see made, and the one I have definitely made myself is leaving a player that has a Thursday night game in my flex spot. If you are playing a flex eligible player in a Thursday night game, DO NOT leave him in your flex spot. When you are playing the Thursday night guys, put them in their appropriate slot. Running backs in the running back spot, receivers in the wide receiver spot. This allows you the maximum flexibility on Sunday in case an unexpected injury pops up late in the week. This happened to me earlier this year when I forgot to move a wide receiver out of my flex spot and would have been able to make a decision between Darren Sproles and Reggie Wayne or Dwayne Allen in my flex spot later in the week. Instead I only had Sproles available to me.

It is a simple move to make, but allowing yourself the maximum flexibility is the best strategy to make your team a winner. A choice between multiple players is always going to be better than being tied down to only one player.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

IR Designated To Return

The past few seasons the NFL has had a spot for teams to place a player on the injured reserve list for a portion of the season and bring him back later. Often times, unless your league has an IR spot in it, these players get dropped and forgotten until they are returning. This is your chance to get out in front of the return of a couple of these players that may have some big fantasy implications.

Image source benglas.com
Tyler Eifert (CIN) is a tight end for the Cincinnati Bengals who dislocated his elbow at the beginning of the season. Eifert was placed on the IR to return list, and soon should be active again around week 11 for the Bengals. The passing game in Cincinnati has been challenged to say the least so far this season after the injuries to Eifert, Marvin Jones, and AJ Green. When Eifert returns you can expect him to get a decent amount of targets in the passing game and help to shore up a tight end position that has been fraught with injury and lack of production this season. Don't wait for the news to hit the main stream media that Eifert has returned to practice. The time to grab and stash is now. If your tight end has been underperforming, pick him up and stash him for the late season push.

Image source: buccaneers.com
Another name that has a chance to see significant playing time when he returns to the active roster is Charles Sims. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been a disappointment all around so far this season. Sims was rumored to be part of a committee coming out of training camp when he went down with an ankle injury. Sims has already returned to practice in week 8, and with Doug Martin and Bobby Rainey not providing good production for the Bucs, look for Sims to get a shot soon after being activated to the Bucs roster. At 1-5, the Bucs are sitting on the brink of a lost season and will likely decide to take a look at the young running back that was drafted by the current regime.


I recommend adding one or both of these players to your roster if you need help at either position. They could end up being difference makers for your fantasy season, or hopefully your playoff run.

Monster Match Ups And Misses Week 8

Week 8 has some huge games that offer up some monster match ups for your fantasy week. On the flip side of that, there are some games that offer up bad match ups for both receivers and running backs on your teams. Let's take a look at this weeks monsters and misses.

The Good
Image source detroitlions.com

Detroit Lions have a great match up this week against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have the 27th ranked run defense in the league allowing 137.7 rushing yards per game and 13 rushing touchdowns so far this season. With Reggie Bush and Theo Riddick both being banged up, it might be a great week for Joique Bell this week in London. Along with the bad run defense the Falcons have the 29th ranked pass defense in the league. Allowing 274.4 yards and 8 touchdowns through the air this year, Golden Tate should find himself some good stats this week. Early rumors say that it is possible that Calvin Johnson will play this week, but keep an eye out for practice report updates this week. Being that this game is in London, the start time is early for both east and west coast fantasy players. If Johnson practices this week, you can expect him to play and plug him in your lineup.
The

In week 8 the Seattle Seahawks face off against the once menacing defense of the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers rank 26th against the run, allowing 137.6 yards per game and 8 touchdowns on the season on the ground. Ranking 22nd against the pass, they allow 250.7 yards per game and 15 touchdowns. I look for the Seahawks to recommit to the run this week with Marshawn Lynch. On top of that, it could be a coming out party for Paul Richardson this week against the porous Carolina secondary. Start your Seahwaks, and don't leave Richardson on your waiver wire for the future.

Image source zimbio.com
The Minnesota Vikings have a great match up against the run defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs allow 128.3 yards per game with their 25th ranked run defense. Jerick McKinnon seems to have finally passed Matt Asiata to be the starter and feature back for the Vikings. With 30 rushes for 143 yards the past 2 weeks for the Vikes, McKinnon has had the lions share of the rushes for the Vikings. He is a must start this week against the Bucs.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers wide receivers have to be licking their chops with their match up this week at the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have the 28th ranked pass defense, allowing 270.5 yards per game and have given up 11 touchdowns while only having 3 interceptions. Look for the great offense of the Packers to feast on the Saints defense early and often.

The Philadelphia Eagles square off against the 31st ranked pass defense of the Arizona Cardinals. Allowing 284.8 yards per game, the pass heavy offense of the Eagles should be able to find some success against the Cards. Look for Jeremy Maclin to have a good game, but the sleeper to watch is Jordan Matthews. Look for him to have a breakout game this week. I would expect to see Patrick Peterson on Jeremy Maclin a lot, leaving Mathews in a good spot to score for you.

Image source sportsworldreport.com
A team I would never have expected to be writing about hits up the monsters list next. The Oakland Raiders have a great match up against the 32nd ranked defense of the Cleveland Browns. Giving up a league high 155.5 yards per game, and 5 yards per carry, it is a good week ahead for Darren McFadden. As long as the Raiders follow a game plan that includes attacking Cleveland at their weak point, you should get a solid spot start from McFadden this week.

The Bad:

The Cincinnati Bengals had a tough week 7 against the Colts, and it isn't going to get much easier this week against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are the 7th ranked run defense in the NFL allowing only 87 yards per game on the ground and only 3 touchdowns on the season. This will make for a hard game for Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill in week 8. The Ravens passing defense is ranked 24th in the league allowing 258 yards a game, but they have not allowed a lot of scoring, only 7 passing touchdowns on the season. The Bengals need AJ Green to play this week, or they will have a hard time finding a way to win this game. If Green sits out again this week, or if he isn't 100 percent, I don't like the fantasy output you will likely see from the Bengals.

Image source stltoday.com
St. Louis Rams played a solid game against the Seahawks in week 7, but their special teams was the
difference maker last week. This week I look for their passing attack to have a difficult time against the leagues number 2 pass defense. The Kansas City Chiefs only allow 209 yards per game on the season. They have allowed 11 passing touchdowns on the season, but a young quarterback, and inconsistent play from the wide receivers of the Rams leads me to the desire to sit my Rams wide outs this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars earned their first win of the season in week 7, but in week 8 they get to face the defense that just shut down a much better Chicago offense. The Miami Dolphins are the 4th ranked passing defense and 10th ranked run defense. Allowing 213.3 and 100.3 yards a game respectively, it looks to be a bad match up for the Jags this week. Add to that the revolving door at running back, and a rookie signal caller, and it is hard to find a Jaguar I would want to start on my fantasy team this week.

Image source sportstalkflorida.com
This week the Atlanta Falcons face off against what has been one of the best defenses in the league in the Detroit Lions. Detroit has the leagues 2nd ranked run defense at 73.4 yards per game and 3 rushing scores allowed on the season. The Falcons have a mess on their offensive line, having lost 5 players for the season already. On top of that, they have a weird 4 headed monster of a running back by committee going on. Steven Jackson is quite obviously past his prime now, and the other three rely on long touchdown catches to do anything at all. There is not a Falcons running back that I would even roster now, let alone think about starting for my fantasy teams the rest of this season.

Another tough running back situation sets up this week for the San Diego Chargers. Facing the 3rd ranked run defense of the Denver Broncos in week 8, who give up only 74.3 yards per game, and 5 scores on the ground so far on the season, Branden Oliver has a mountain to climb this week, pun not intended. Add to that the short week, this is the Thursday night game, and the fact that it is in Denver in the thin air, and Oliver is a sit in my book. The Chargers don't have another viable option at running back, so Oliver will see workload, but I don't expect him to put up huge numbers.

Image source: sbnation.com
The Chicago Bears wide receivers and Jay Cutler have their second difficult match up in a row coming in week 8. They face off against the top ranked New England Patriots pass defense. Allowing only 208 yards per game and 11 touchdowns on the season, the Pats have the luxury of having Revis Island. You can basically take one of the Bears receivers out of the picture, but I am not sure which one it will be. In any case, with dissension amongst the ranks in the Bears offense after last weeks abysmal performance at the Dolphins, I don't see relief in their future. 

That brings us to the end of another monster match ups and misses. Hopefully it has helped to shape informed decisions for your week 8 fantasy lineups. Good luck and go get 'em!

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Sashay Donte

The Indianapolis Colts have had the most prolific offense so far this NFL season. Andrew Luck is on a torrid pace, and his receivers and running backs are coming with him. This week an injury is likely to sideline Reggie Wayne for a week or two, and it may usher in the youth movement in Indy.

Image source indystar.com
Donte Moncrief is a rookie wide out for the Colts out of Mississippi. He has all the tools to be a great receiver in the NFL with a little work. With Reggie Wayne sidelined, he is likely to get his chance this week. Moncrief stands 6'2 and weighed in at 221 pounds at the combine last spring. His speed and leaping ability will allow him to both stretch the field, and to go up and get balls over the defenders playing him.

At Mississippi, Moncrief was a starter as a true freshman in 2011. That season he started 12 games and led the team in receptions (31), yards (454), and touchdown catches (4). As a Sophomore he played 12 games making 66 catches for 979 yards and 10 touchdowns. In his junior, and final season at Ole Miss, Moncrief had 59 catches for 938 yards and 6 scores.

At the combine he was a co-leader in 40 yard dash times with a 4.4 second time, vertical jump at 39.5 inches, and broad jump at 132 inches. Moncrief possesses a gift of speed and size that are not often found with wide receivers. He is a field stretching talent that can get down field and catch the long bomb, or go up and get a ball up close in the red zone. In college he also showed an awareness of where the yardage marker was to get his team a first down.

So far this season Moncrief has not had a ton of work. His high water mark so far was in week 3 against Jacksonville where he caught 4 of 5 targets for 55 yards. The next two weeks, which coincide with reports of the timeline for Wayne to be out, see the colts play the 13th ranked pass defense of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the 25th ranked New York Giants. The overall average rank of the defenses left on the Colts schedule is 17, middle of the pack. The colts have the easiest schedule this year, and if Moncrief can put up some good numbers with Wayne out, you may not see him coming off the field when Wayne returns.

With the big play making ability of both Andrew Luck, and the skill set of Donte Moncrief, I recommend picking him up this week off of your waiver wire. He would make a good speculative addition for anyone who is needing help at wide receiver and wants to add a guy who is owned in less than 1 percent of ESPN leagues. The opportunity to add a player with his path in front of him, and recently developed opportunity should not be missed. If you are carrying a second quarterback and your main guy has had his bye, you can likely drop the backup and add Moncrief to his spot.

Don't miss the boat on this super talented guy who is about to get his shot in the best offense in the NFL this season. He may tilt the field in your fantasy match ups for the rest of your season.

Monday, October 20, 2014

Waiver Wire Week 8

Looking through the box scores and checking the injury reports, there are some names with opportunities for your fantasy team in week 8. Take a look in your league, and add these guys if you need help at their position.

RB

 Bryce Brown (BUF) will be getting a big opportunity to take the lead back role for the Bills in week 8. After Fred Jackson went down with a groin injury, and CJ Spiller broke his collar bone and is out for the season, expect Brown to get the bulk of the carries until Jackson comes back. Brown has been a healthy inactive so far this season, but had mixed results with Philadelphia in the past. Putting up back to back 165+ yard games in 2012, Brown followed that up with two miserable performances. He has talent enough that the Bills traded for him in the off season. A starting running back is a hard thing to come by this time of year, especially one in an offense that will look to run. Brown is the top add of the week.

Jerick McKinnon (MIN) has taken over the feature back role in Minnesota. Rushing 19 times for 103 yards in week 7, McKinnon is a must add player that is only owned in 11.7 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues. He will be getting the rushing down work, and will mix in some pass catching as well. If he is unowned in your league, go grab him.

Tre Mason (STL) got the starters reps for the Rams against the Seahawks in week 7, and he didn't squander his opportunity. Gaining 85 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries, look for Mason to continue to get work for the Rams in the future. A tough schedule lies ahead for the rookie, but given volume, he can still be a productive addition to a running back talent starved roster.

Stepfan Taylor (ARI) is more of a speculative add. He got 12 carries for 40 yards and a score plus caught 2 passes for 19 yards and a score. There is no guarantee that he will continue to get any kind of volume for Arizona, but if something happened to Andre Ellington, Taylor would likely see increased workload. Watch him again in the coming week to see if his increase in touches continues.

Travaris Cadet (NO) caught 6 passes for the second time in 3 weeks for the Saints. With Pierre Thomas suffering an injury in week 7, Cadet could see some work in the coming weeks if Thomas misses any time. Cadet is a better addition in a point per reception (PPR) league. Watch for news on Thomas and grab Cadet if he can help your team.

WR

Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) had 4 catches for 34 yards and 2 touchdowns plus a rush for 13 yards. On bye in week 8, Beckham will not be a helpful addition to your team this week, but he should be owned in all leagues after the injury to Victor Cruz. Currently owned in only 20.2 percent of ESPN leagues, get him while you can.

Doug Baldwin (SEA) had a monster game in the first game after the Seahawks traded Percy Harvin. The Hawks were behind early on Sunday, and came out firing in the second half. Baldwin had 7 catches for 123 yards and a score in week 7 against the Rams. Baldwin is the best receiver on the Seahwaks roster, and has now been thrust into the number 1 role. Expect him to continue to see a high volume in the future.

Stevie Johnson (SF) has 3 games this season with at least 5 catches, and has scored in 3 of his last 4 games. A bit hit or miss, Johnson will definitely leave you hanging at times, but if the 49ers are behind, he will likely see some solid fantasy production. On bye in week 8, you may be able to wait until next week to get him, but don't miss the boat on a player that could help your team.

TE

Gavin Escobar (DAL) had 3 catches for 65 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 7. This is the first week Escobar has had that kind of production, but his upcoming match ups are good ones for tight ends. Facing off against Washington, Arizona, and Jacksonville the next 3 weeks, Escobar could see his scoring ways continue.

Jermaine Gresham (CIN) has 16 catches in the past 2 weeks. Seeming to be a bit of a safety valve for Andy Dalton, he had 10 catches for 48 yards in a dismal game for the Bengals against the Colts in week 7. In PPR leagues he will have value based on his volume.

Clay Harbor (JAX) has either 6+ catches or a score in 3 of the last 4 weeks. A favorite target of rookie Blake Bortles, Harbor can provide you some help at the dismal tight end position on your team. If your tight end is out or on bye this week, you could definitely do worse than Harbor for your roster.


QB

Ryan Tannehill (MIA) has put together three solid games in a row. Throwing for at least 240 yards and 2 touchdowns in each of his last 3 games, Tannehill is putting up some good numbers. He is bolstering his stats with rushing yardage as well. Averaging 44 rushing yards per game his last 3, Tannehill is a good option for a bye week fill in, or a switch if you are in the market for a new quarterback. A week 8 match up with Jacksonville should provide him with a good opportunity to score.

Robert Griffin III (WAS) is likely to practice this week. It is uncertain what RG3 will come back from his latest injury, but it has become painfully obvious that Kirk Cousins is either not an NFL talent, or just not ready to be a starter yet. I would recommend a speculative stash of Griffin if you are unhappy at the quarterback position. If he can gain the rushing yardage he had as a rookie, he can score big. Games against Minnesota in week 9, and Tampa Bay in week 11 set him up for the chance to score for you.


Saturday, October 18, 2014

Practice Report Round Up Week 7

After the Friday practices I have combed through the practice reports for each of the teams that will play Sunday and Monday. The following fantasy relevant players are listed with the likelihood they will play and the impacts that will have.

Carson Palmer (ARI) was a full participant in practice. Palmer said this week that his arm is weaker than it was early in the season. This is not surprising, but he played well last week in a win for the Cardinals. With another week of practice under his belt, it seems likely that Palmer will be just fine this week in a great match up with the Raiders.

Harry Douglas (ATL) is once again out this week for the Falcons. At this time beyond Julio Jones, it is hard to trust any of the other players for the Falcons.

Julio Jones (ATL) was a full participant in practice. The Ravens give up 270 yards per game through the air so Jones could find some success this week.

Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) was a full participant in practice on Friday. The Packers will be without one, if not both of their starting corners against the Panthers this week, so look for Benjamin to have a solid week barring a setback with his concussion.

Jonathan Stewart (CAR) was a full participant all week for the Panthers. Facing off against the bottom ranked run defense of the Packers is a fantastic match up for Stewart. Hopefully he can make it through the game. There is also a chance that Cam Newton takes up some of the rushing, as he began to run again last week against the Bengals.

Darrin Reaves (CAR) was limited on Friday in practice for the Panthers. Head coach Ron Rivera has already said that Jonathan Stewart will start for the Panthers on Sunday, so Reaves is not likely to get too much action if he plays.

AJ Green (CIN) did not practice this week. The Bengals have said that there is not a timetable yet for Green to return to action. Mohammed Sanu is a must add if he is not already owned in your leagues.

DeMarco Murray (DAL) was a full participant after missing practice time earlier in the week with an illness. There should be no issues with him this week in a good match up with the Giants.

Eric Ebron (DET) did not practice Friday for the Lions. It would be surprising if Ebron played this week. The Lions are injury ravaged. Not a lot of players left to pick up to replace Ebron from their roster.

Joseph Fauria (DET) also did not practice for the Lions Friday. The Lions are hurting at the tight end position, along with others.

Calvin Johnson (DET) did not practice this week for the Lions. It would be surprising if he played, but has not been ruled out as of yet. Even if he does play, it would be hard to trust that he wouldn't be in a decoy role still. Keep your eye on the inactives and roll your own dice.

Theo Riddick (DET) also didn't practice for the Lions on Friday. Riddick is the third string running back for the Lions, so his loss is not huge as long as nobody else gets hurt.

Reggie Bush (DET) is the lone bit of good news this week for the Lions offense. He was a full participant on Friday and will play on Sunday. Looking forward to his match up with his old team, the Saints, Bush and the Lions will face off against the 15th ranked run defense. Look for the Lions to run, as their receiving corps are very depleted.

Jarrett Boykin (GB) was a limited participant in practice on Friday. Boykin seems to have lost his role in the Green Bay offense to Davante Adams, so the fantasy impact of his return is negligible.

Sam Shields (GB) is one of the starting corners for the Packers. Usually this column would mainly focus on offensive players, but the loss of shields, who is out this week, is huge for the Packers Defense. Facing off against the Panthers, the Packers secondary is in bad shape this week. Stay away from their defense.

Tramon Williams (GB) is another corner for the Packers. He was not a participant in practice Friday, and leaves the Pack in quite a lurch. Being down two corners and having the leagues worst run defense is a pretty good reason to stay far from their defense this week.

Andre Johnson (HOU) was limited on Friday in practice. Houston plays on Monday night, so keep an eye on his practice report from Saturday, but this is not out of the ordinary for the veteran Johnson. Expect him to play Monday night unless he fails to practice on Saturday.

Toby Gerhart (JAX) is out again this week. Storm Johnson will be the starter, but he was on a carry count last week, and couldn't really get going anyways.

Charles Clay (MIA) was a limited participant in practice Friday for the Dolphins. This is the same as last week, and Clay played. He is banged up, so you might be better to find another option to start in your league.

Brandon Gibson (MIA) was a full participant for the Dolphins on Friday. Gibson is listed as first team, but may be losing some targets to rookie Jarvis Landry who put up a solid performance last week.

Lamar Miller (MIA) was a limited participant in Friday practice. Miller has a knee issue, but is likely to play Sunday. It will be interesting to see what the Dolphins do with the workload with Knowshon Moreno out for the season. Miller could see a big jump in touches and may be a monster for your fantasy roster.

Jimmy Graham (NO) was a surprise participant in practice this week in a limited capacity. Having reports earlier of a 2-3 week injury for Graham, it is not out of the question at this point that he play this week. If he plays his snap count could be limited, and he may only be in for goal line packages, but that might be enough to get you the points you need from your top drafted tight end. The nature of his injury is undisclosed as of now, but if it is an AC joint issue, that could make it difficult for him to reach up. Proceed with caution with Graham this week.

Donald Brown (SD) has not practiced since suffering a concussion. He is unlikely to play this week without practicing.

Eddie Royal (SD) was a full participant this week for the Chargers. In a tough match up against the 7th ranked pass defense of the Chiefs this week, expect to see Royal in the slot.

Luke Willson (SEA) did not practice for the Seahawks on Friday. Willson was playing in place of the injured Zach Miller, and his loss is worse for the passing game than the run game. Cooper Helfet would be the next man up for the Hawks, but he has little experience. It is uncertain what the Seahawks will be doing Sunday after trading away Percy Harvin on Friday. I would steer clear of Willson and Helfet for now.

Vernon Davis (SF) was a full participant for the 49ers on Friday. Davis has less than impressive numbers so far this season, as his injuries have robbed him of playing time. After last week seeing him struggle through the game, it would be hard to trust him this week.

Stevie Johnson(SF) was a full participant in practice after taking a knee to his hip in the 49ers game against the Rams in week 6. He should be good to go on Sunday.

Zac Stacy (STL) was a full participant Friday. With an uncertain role in the offense, and a tough match up against the Seahawks defense on Sunday, Stacy may be a guy you want to put on your bench this week.

Shonn Greene (TEN) is out for Sunday. Bishop Sankey has been less that exciting so far for the Titans, but so was Greene before his injury. This is likely not a big issue for your fantasy roster.

Jake Locker (TEN) is questionable after being a limited participant in practice Friday. Even if he does play, it is hard to trust Locker, who has missed time twice this year with a wrist injury. If he is on your roster, I'd make other plans one way or the other.

That brings our look at the Friday practice reports to a close. Remember to keep your eyes on the Saturday practice reports for Monday teams, and the inactives on Sunday Morning. You Can follow me @FFFTW_ for more updates. Good luck this week!

Friday, October 17, 2014

WTHarvin

Late this afternoon Jay Glazer of Fox Sports reported that the Seahawks have traded Percy Harvin to the New York Jets. This trade was wholly unexpected, speaking as a Seattle resident and Hawks fan. Lets look at what this does to the receiver corps in Seattle.

Image source zimbio.com
Paul Richardson is the immediate first thought to gain in value. Often compared to Harvin after the draft, Richardson is a speedster and could immediately fill in in the role carved out for Harvin in the Hawks offense. Graded out at the combine with a 4.4 40 yard dash, his strengths are stretching the field and play extension by coming back to the quarterback, all things that are improtant to the Seahawks offense. The big knock on Richardson is that he is small, and needs to put on weight to be effective in the NFL.

Image source fantasyknuckleheads.com
Kevin Norwood is the other wide receiver taken in the 2014 draft by the Seahawks. Standing 6'2 and
weighing in at 198 at the combine, Norwood is a long receiver with a solid build. He is known to have good hands and has good skill at extending plays by coming back to quarterback. The big knocks on him were short arms and not creating separation or getting off of jams. So far this season Norwood has not made it on field on game day, but that may change with the subtraction of Harvin from the Seahawks Roster.

This trade obviously shifts the value of the Seahawks receivers for fantasy. I am not sure that it changes much as it is for Doug Baldwin or Jermaine Kearse. In my opinion if you were to make a speculative addition in the wake of this trade it would be best spent on Richardson as of now, but this weekends game against the St. Louis Rams will likely shed more light on the situation. Just in case, I recommend getting out in front of it and jettisoning a deep bench player to grab Richardson and hope you hit the lottery.

Good luck this week!


Thursday, October 16, 2014

New Sheriff In Town?

With the injury to Stevan Ridley for the New England Patriots this week a door may have opened for another running back to come in and produce both for the Pats and your fantasy team. Let's take a closer look at Jonas Gray.
Image source nesn.com

Attending Notre Dame for college, Gray was nothing exceptional during his college years. He has a history of knee issues, and missed some games as a result. In his senior season, Gray had 114 carries and ran for 791 yards, an average of 6.9 yards per carry. He also scored 12 touchdowns in his final season with the Irish. He made 6 catches for 38 yards that season as well.

Gray was signed by Miami after going undrafted in 2012. He was unable to work out at the combine, and when signed by the Dolphins was placed on the physically unable to perform list to rehab a knee injury. He was cut by the Dolphins at the end of training camp, and signed to the Baltimore Ravens practice squad in September of 2013. In January of 2014 Gray signed with the Patriots practice squad and today was signed to the active roster to replace Ridley.

According to the NFL.com combine section Gray is a seen as a good short yardage and goal line back. He is a north south runner who can hit a hole and gain some yardage if it is there. He is not going to break outside and try to turn the corner and has no wiggle to make you miss. Seen as a possible check down route for his quarterback, Gray may have that change of pace third down ability for an offense. He is a big bulky back, and strong having put up 20 reps at 225 pounds. Ahead and through you will be his course with the ball.

If you are struggling at the running back position, Gray is worth an add. I wouldn't play him tonight against the New York Jets, as we have no information on his planned usage, if any. If he gets in and gets hot, he may become the go to guy for the Patriots on running downs. The usage of Brandon Bolden on special teams, and the healthy scratches of James White so far this season seem to lend themselves to the idea that Gray may get a shot to win himself this job. The Pats backfield is often times a quagmire, but if you are relying on backs like Matt Asiata, Trent Richardson, or Storm Johnson to name a few, it might be worth a shot to grab and stash Gray just in case.

Friday, October 10, 2014

Practice Report Round Up Week 6

Back again with your week 6 practice report round up. Some new and interesting names appear this week. As always, if they don't practice on Friday, they probably aren't playing on Sunday. With that said, here we go.

Image source washingtonpost.com
Carson Palmer (ARI) was limited on Friday. Arizonacardinals.com is reporting that Palmer is throwing at about 80%. Coach Bruce Arians was quoted as saying that he didn't know who was going to start on Sunday. Definitely keep your eyes open Sunday morning for the inactives for the Cardinals.

Drew Stanton (ARI) is the other piece of the enigma at quarterback in Arizona. He has progressed through the concussion protocol this week, and barring a setback should be able to play on Sunday. The status of Carson Palmer will ultimately decide who is going to start for the Cardinals. If Palmer is able to go, it is his show.

Andre Ellington (ARI) was limited in practice on Friday with a foot injury. This is the same injury that he has been dealing with all season, so it is unlikely that he will not play this week. Keep your eye on the inactive list Sunday, but I would be surprised if he didn't play.

Harry Douglas (ATL) is out this week. The third wide out for Atlanta, if you were starting him in a deep league make other plans.

Devin Hester (ATL) was limited in practice on Friday. He will likely play, but may not see a full slate of offensive plays. Hester would likely only be an offensive option in very deep leagues, so if you happen to have him, you may want to find another receiver to play this week.

Fred Jackson (BUF) did not practice on Friday due to illness. It is likely that he will suit up on Sunday, but just in case make sure to check his status before kickoff.

Greg Olsen (CAR) was limited in practice on Friday with an ankle injury. He is expected to play on Sunday.

Jonathan Stewart (CAR) was limited on Friday, and NBC sports is reporting that he will be a game time decision. Stewart has been a marginal talent as it is, and his seemingly being injury prone makes him hard to trust.

Image source fansided.com
Darrin Reaves (CAR) was nursing an injury early in the week, but was back as a full participant in
practice on Friday.

AJ Green (CIN) is out for Sunday after aggravating his previous toe injury. This is expected to be at least a 1-2 week injury.

Marvin Jones (CIN) looks like he will have to wait until at least next week to make his return to the field for the Bengals after not practicing at all this week.

Reggie Bush (DET) missed practice on Friday and is likely out for Sunday. According to ESPN, Bush said he will test the ankle this weekend, but won't push it to play against Minnesota.

Calvin Johnson (DET) is likely out this week. After re-injuring his ankle last week on his only catch of the game, and playing a decoy role in previous games, it would be decidedly difficult to trust Johnson if he did suit up this Sunday.

Jarrett Boykin (GB)did not practice on Friday. If you had Boykin in your lineup, take a look at Davante Adams as a viable option as the 3rd wide out in Green Bay.

Image source Jacksonville.com
Toby Gerhart (JAC) was out of practice on Friday. Look for the Jaguars to Give Storm Johnson a look as the running downs back, and possibly a 3 down back in their offense this week, and maybe going forward.

Marqise Lee (JAC) was back in practice this week and should be able to play.

Cecil Shorts (JAC) returned to practice this week. The additions of Shorts and Lee back into the Jaguars lineup should give them some hope of gaining their first win of the season. Hard to trust Shorts at this point, as he is injured frequently, but when healthy his talent is unquestioned.

Charles Clay (MIA) was limited in practice on Friday. Clay has struggled this season, and is likely not a top option in your leagues, but should play if you have no better options.

Knowshon Moreno (MIA) returned to practice and is now listed as probable for Sunday. The Dolphins have a great match up against the Packers, who have the worst run defense in the NFL. It is unclear what the role for Moreno will be, but early in the season there was plenty for both backs to eat in the Dolphins backfield.

Tom Brady (NE) showed up on the practice report on Friday and is listed as questionable. Never quite sure what to make of the Patriots practice reports, so keep your eyes on the inactives on Sunday.

Image source nydailynews.com
Eric Decker (NYJ) was limited on in practice Friday. It seems that he may have extra motivation to make it back to action against his former team Sunday, but he will be hard to trust after leaving a game early with his hamstring injury.

David Nelson (NYJ) is questionable for Sunday after being limited in practice Friday. Rex Ryan said that Nelson may have had a setback this week with his ankle, according to ESPN. You would likely be playing Nelson in deep leagues and should think about other plans at wide receiver if you were playing him.

David Carr (OAK) was limited on Friday. I would expect him to play against San Diego on Sunday. There is likely to be some good garbage time and catch up so Carr may put up decent numbers if you are in a deep league or a 2 quarterback league.

Jordan Matthews (PHI) missed practice on Friday. I found no other information on the reason he was out. The Eagles play the Sunday night game, so if you were playing him you should make sure to have another Eagles option or someone from the Monday night game to play just in case Matthews does not play.

Donald Brown (SD) missed practice this week and looks unlikely to play.

Image source sfexaminer.com
Vernon Davis (SF) was limited in practice Friday. A slightly different situation with Davis playing on Monday night, but that also makes it harder to start him on your fantasy team. Watch the reports for Saturday and make an informed decision on Sunday.

Zac Stacy (STL) did not practice on Friday. Just like with Vernon Davis, Stacy plays on Monday night. Watch the Saturday practice reports, and treat them like the Friday reports with regard to Stacy. Out means likely out, limited means he may play. Proceed with caution.

Mike Evans (TB) returned to practice this week for the Bucs. He seems like he is going to play this week for Tampa Bay.

Vincent Jackson (TB) was limited in practice on Friday. He should play and if you spent the draft pick on him, you are playing him.

Jake Locker (TEN) did not practice this week. Locker is not expected to play. Enter clipboard Jesus!

Jordan Reed (WAS) was limited in practice. He will be a game time decision but said earlier this week that barring a setback he expects to play this week. Washington plays the Cardinals who are traditionally bad at defending the tight end, so if he plays, there is a good chance that he will be a good option for you.

Good luck this week!

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Trade Target: AJ Green

AJ Green has been nursing a toe injury this season. This culminated in him leaving practice on Wednesday on a cart, and seeing two specialists. For enterprising fantasy owners, the time to pounce is now.

Image source thesportspost.com
Take a moment and look at the roster of the Green owner in your leagues. If he is deficient at wide receiver or running back, and you can afford it, then you are now presented with a golden opportunity to take action and gamble on the ability of Green to return this season. The chatter on twitter today has been that Green will likely miss a few weeks. That wide receiver or running back deficient Green owner may need help now. If you have a surplus at any position, you may be able to help that owner out, at the right price.

I personally made offers in 3 of my 4 leagues (I own Green in the 4th) that will both help out the current owner in my leagues, while giving me the upside of a top 7 wide receiver if Green can get right this year. Don't necessarily give up your top tier talent to get him. If you can afford it, offer. The worst you can hear is no. My offers were Pierre Garçon to an owner who needs a receiver this week, and Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon to an owner who needs a running back now. The last offer was on a team where if I get Green, he would still be the 4th best receiver on the team, so I offered my 4th best running back Ahmad Bradshaw, and am not going to be upset if I don't get him. These players are about what I would value at the top of the spectrum for Green, since it is unknown if he will miss significant time the rest of this season.

If you want to find the best deals on Green, strike now. If the information comes out later this week that it is only a 1-2 week injury, the price will likely increase exponentially. If your trade partner needs help, offer it, and hopefully reap the rewards for swift action.  Good luck!

Match Up Monsters And Misses Week 6

Welcome once again to the match up monsters and misses article. We find ourselves in week 6 of the NFL season. This week sees the New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs on bye. Let's examine the match ups further.

Image source lesterslegends.com
The following teams have good match ups in week 6:

Image source topteamfantasy.com
Arizona Cardinals: This match up is conditional. Assuming that the Cardinals have Carson Palmer or even Drew Stanton playing, they should score well against Washington. Even though the Washington defense is ranked 10th in total defense on the season, 10th in pass defense, and 15th in run defense, the numbers are skewed in my opinion. Seattle gashed the pass defense last week, only to be thwarted by penalties. And we saw Russell Wilson run crazy for a Monday Night Football record 122 yards and a score. Even so, through 5 games, Washington has given up 11 passing touchdowns. Along with the passing touchdowns allowed, they are allowing 114.6 rushing yards a game. Some of this is due to inconsistent quarterback play by the Washington quarterbacks giving their opponents a short field. Andre Ellington is a must start. Palmer or Stanton can provide a nice bye week fill in for Drew Brees in case of emergency. Michael Floyd should get healthy with solid quarterback play. Larry Fitzgerald is a flex play this week. John Brown is still a bit raw and should be played at your own risk.

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have the luxury of playing an Oakland team this week that is not only terrible, but now deals with the turmoil of an in season coaching change. Ranked 19th in total defense, the Raiders can't stop the run, so nobody needs to pass. Giving up a whopping 158.2 yards per game on the ground so far this season, the Raiders rank 31st in the league. Their passing defense is ranked 5th, only allowing 207 yards per game. I expect that number to change this week. Phillip Rivers is a must start. Having an MVP worthy season so far, he should not be seeing your bench. Given the injury problems that San Diego has had at the running back position this year, it is hard to say who to play this week. If Donald Brown plays, he is a must start. Ronnie Brown is less certain. He is familiar with the offense, but not sure I want to trust him. Branden Oliver had an amazing game last week, but if another back is present, the split may not be the same. Start all your healthy San Diego receivers and Antonio Gates.

New York Giants: The Giants have a fantastic match up against the terrible defense of the Philadelphia eagles. Ranked 28th overall in defense, the Eagles are 29th against the pass and 24th against the run. They have allowed 13 passing touchdowns and 132 rushing yards per game. Teams facing the Eagles are scoring touchdowns 62.5% of their trips to the red zone. Andre Williams gets the start at running back this week for the Giants and is a must start. Victor Cruz and Ruben Randle are great wide receiver 2 starts or flex options. Odell Beckham Jr. is not bad as a spot start in a tough flex spot after scoring last week in his NFL debut. Larry Donnell is a good start with that red zone inefficiency on defense for the Eagles.

Image source totalprosports.com
Chicago Bears: The Bears play the hapless Atlanta defense this week. At 29th overall, 24th against the pass, and 28th against the run, the stats should pile up for the Bears offense this week. Atlanta has given up 10 rushing touchdowns on the season and 147.6 yards per game on the ground. Through the air the Falcons defense has given up 259.6 yards per game and 5 touchdowns. Matt Forte Feasts this week on the souls of Atlanta defensive players. Jay Cutler should be able to carve up the defense. If they can catch a pass on the Bears roster, you should play them. All systems go this week for the Bears.

Denver Broncos: The Broncos lost their starting running back this week, but that likely won't matter too much this week against the New York Jets. The front 7 of the Jets stops the run well. The secondary is not as good against the pass. They are tied for second worst in touchdowns allowed through the air, and give up 237.8 yards per game through the air. The Jets offense is not playing well, and they always have the possibility of a turnover allowing a short field. The good news is that Denver seems to have decided that they are going to pass the ball. A lot. Start all your Denver receivers. If I have to tell you that you should start Peyton Manning, you are doing this wrong. Julius Thomas is a man. A large, pass catching, touchdown scoring man. Never sit him. Ever.

The following teams have bad match ups for week 6:

Carolina Panthers: The Panthers play a Cincinnati Bengals team that is likely to be quite angry after being blown out last week against a, so far, mediocre New England team. The Bengals defense is ranked 27th overall, but that statistic may be misleading. Only allowing 19 points per game so far this season, they seem to be a bend but don't break squad. Allowing 140 yards per game as the 27th ranked run defense, they have only allowed 3 rushing touchdowns on the season. The passing defense ranks 19th and allows 250.8 yards per game, but only 4 touchdowns. The Panthers are a mess in the backfield. Cam is not fully healthy. Last week he did rush 6 times, but only had 9 yards rushing. The Panthers have 1 solid receiver, and he is a rookie with drop issues. Until they prove those things wrong, I don't like playing any Panthers if I don't have to.

Image source sportsrants.com
New England Patriots: The Pats play the Buffalo Bills in week 6. The Bills have the 2nd ranked run defense in the NFL. They only allow 71 yards per game, and have not allowed a rushing touchdown on the season. Along with the bad match up against the Bills run defense, the Patriots running game is always a mystery. Who will it be week to week? I could see the Patriots focusing more on the passing game and maybe using Shane Vereen more, but who knows what Belichick will do?

Image source cbssports.com
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys play the Seahawks in week 6, in Seattle. This is considered one of the hardest, if not the hardest, places to play in the NFL. Add to that the fact that the Seahawks are now ranked 1st against the run at 62.2 yards a game and only 1 touchdown allowed. This will make for a clash of the titans in Seattle this week. The best running back so far against the best run defense. You aren't sitting DeMarco Murray, but I wouldn't expect the production you have gotten used to. As for the passing defense of the Seahawks, they have looked vulnerable at times. But we should remember that in their first 4 games, they have faced 3 of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Dez Bryant is another guy I am not thrilled about the match up for, temper expectations. Jason Witten has been decent, but nothing to write home about, and I don't think he is fast enough anymore to be effective against the swarming Seattle defense. Terrance Williams has a shot if he draws the nickel corner, as the Seahawks have a small hole there.

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings face off against the Detroit Lions this week. The Lions have the 3rd ranked run defense in the NFL allowing a meager 74.4 yards per game and 3 touchdowns on the season. The loss of Adrian Peterson obviously put a damper on the running ability of the Vikings. Matt Asiata has only 231 rushing yards on the season averaging 46.2 yards per game. The 3 touchdowns he has came in a game against the bad Atlanta defense. Jerick McKinnon has 166 yards this season, 125 of them against that same Atlanta defense. Neither of them had a good game against the 32nd ranked Green Bay run defense last week. I wouldn't play either of these guys against the Lions this week if you have anyone with a pulse on your bench to play.

This draws to a close the in depth look at the match ups for week 6 in the NFL. Good luck with your games this week. Go get 'em!

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Strategy Scoop

Today we will discuss one of my favorite moves in fantasy football. We all likely wish that our bench was one spot deeper. That we could hold one more guy for the week to see what the trends in news and injuries will hold. I'm going to help you solve that problem today.

Photo from Zimbio.com
I call it the kicker dump off. Almost every week I drop my kicker as part of my waiver wire moves. This allows me to pick up another position player and hold him on my roster for the week. When I can't decide who I would want to drop from my roster on Tuesday night, I just cut the most likely position to not have a huge difference in scoring next week, no matter who I play. This allows me to hold a player on my roster, and on Sunday morning, I simply make my decision on who to let go. Often there will be some news throughout the week that will help you to this choice. Even if you have to drop a player you don't want to at the end of the week, he can't be picked up by anyone in your league, giving you a chance to get him back depending on your spot on the waiver order.

The evidence that this doesn't matter too much can be gleaned from looking at the kicker points scored in ESPN standard scoring leagues so far this season. Through the first 5 weeks of the season the difference between the top kicker, Dan Bailey (DAL) and the 12th highest scoring kicker, Justin Tucker (BAL) is a total of 10 points. That works out to only 2 points per week. The next 3 kickers down in the rankings have just 1 to 3 point differences. This means that the 15th ranked kicker will have only a 3 point per week difference over the top kicker. On top of that, Bailey has two single digit weeks, and a week with 19 points. This difference is negligible in the grand scheme of an entire season.

If you spent an early draft pick on a kicker, and I never suggest this strategy, you may be hesitant to employ this strategy. But the numbers don't lie. It isn't that big a difference, and kickers are volatile point scorers anyways. More position flexibility could end up with you holding on to a key piece of your team while another player on your team finds himself injured, suspended, or with some other possible negative outcome that you could have avoided.

Similarly if you are a streamer of defenses, this strategy can be effective as well. I have found at times that I will drop both my kicker and my defense during a given week to carry two position players above my normal maximum to give me the most options I can have with skill position players. Defense has the same variance to it as the kicker position. In one of my drafts this season I took the Seahawks defense early, and am considering dropping them due to lack of scoring. Turnovers are fleeting. It was always going to be difficult to follow up such an amazingly productive season as last year.

Hopefully you find this strategy advice helpful. Don't fear the small point difference. If it comes down to your kicker to win your games, it was always a toss up.

Saturday, October 4, 2014

Practice Report Round Up Week 5

The purpose of this weekly article will be to tell our readers about the major skill position players that did not practice on Friday practices. Generally if a player does not practice on Friday in the NFL, he doesn't play on Sunday. In future weeks expect to see this on Friday evening or Saturday morning as we settle into a schedule of regular articles.

Carson Palmer (ARI) is out this week. Unlikely you are playing Drew Stanton unless in super deep leagues or deep 2 quarterback leagues.

Andre Ellington (ARI) is probable. Expect him to play. You're starting him every week where you drafted him.

Harry Douglas (ATL) is out this week. If you were starting him, consider Devin Hester.

Ben Tate (CLE) is active, but may be either on a snap count or somewhat limited during the game. Proceed with caution. Consider another player if you have a better option.

Joique Bell (DET) is out this week. Not a good match up for Bush. Bell's replacement in the offense is George Winn. He was on practice squad earlier this week, so I wouldn't start him.

Calvin Johnson (DET) is still nursing an ankle injury. If he plays, you start him. Keep an eye on the inactives before the games start Sunday morning.

Arian Foster (HOU) is likely to play. Expect him to get a lot of work against Dallas.

Andre Johnson (HOU) did not practice Friday. Reports on Saturday were that he would play on Sunday, but keep an eye on inactives. Also be aware of the possibility that he will play a decoy role.

Cecil Shorts III (JAC) has been ruled out with a hamstring injury this week. After the past few seasons it has become hard to count on shorts.

Marqise Lee (JAC) is out with a hamstring injury. Likely already a casualty to roster space needs, you can likely drop Lee at this point if you still have him.

Donnie Avery (KC) is out with a groin injury. This injury increases the value of Travis Kelce and Dwayne Bowe.

Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) was limited in Friday practice. He has yet to make his season debut, but may find the field Sunday against a bad Atlanta defense.

Eric Decker (NYJ) aggravated his hamstring injury Thursday in practice. Decker has been dealing with this injury since the preseason, and has already missed time this season. Playing and scoring last week, Decker was useful and effective, but will be hard to trust after this latest aggravation.

Markus Wheaton (PIT) was a full practice Friday. He should see some good opportunity this week against the worst defense in the NFL in Jacksonville.

Vernon Davis (SF) has not practiced this week. It will be hard to trust Davis this week while he deals with back and knee injuries.

Jake Locker (TEN) was full practice all week. The Tennessee offense has been messy, but if Bishop Sankey can get in and be effective, Locker may find some time and less pressure to help him in the passing game.

Delanie Walker (TEN) was a full practice on Friday. Expect his usual productive game on Sunday.

Niles Paul (WAS) practiced in full on Friday. The Chargers exposed a weak spot against the Seahawks in week 2, with Antonio Gates catching 3 touchdown passes. Not saying this is likely, but if there was a weak spot for Seattle, that may give him a chance to score.

Remember to always keep your eyes on the inactives on Sunday mornings.  Good luck this week!

Friday, October 3, 2014

Match Up Monsters And Misses Week 5

This is the first in a weekly column where we will examine the match ups for the weekends games, both good and bad. The purpose of this article is to help you to decide what players on your roster have good match ups, and which ones have bad. The hope is to guide you with some basic stats who to play, and who to sit.

Week 5 in the NFL has some great games ahead, and some bad ones. These teams have good opportunity against their opponents defense.

Cincinnati Bengals: Start your Bengals running backs this week against the Patriots. Ranked at 23rd in rushing defense, the Patriots are having issues stopping their opponents on the ground. Through four games this season the Patriots have given up 519 yards and 4.4 yards per carry. At 129 rushing yards per game allowed, this patriots defense is soft. I would feel very good about starting Giovani Bernard in your running back slot, and wouldn't have an issue using Jeremy Hill as a flex. The Pats have had a better passing defense, but of course they have. You can run on them.

Philadelphia Eagles: Start your Eagles running backs against the Rams this week as well. This should be a get right game for LeSean McCoy and a good game for Darren Sproles too. The Rams are the 30th ranked rushing defense so far this season. Having given up 465 yards in only three games so far this season, and a robust 5.1 yards per carry, makes this a juicy match up for the Eagles under performing backs.155 yards per game and four touchdowns allowed on the season leaves hope that the Eagles can run and score on Sunday.

New York Giants: Start all of your Giants against the Atlanta Falcons this week. The Falcons have a terrible defense. The Giants have a new offense that has looked great the last few weeks. Ranked 28th against the run, the Falcons are giving up 4.5 yards per carry and have given up 615 yards through their first four games. Allowing 155 yards a game and having given up an astounding NINE touchdowns in four games, the Falcons are like a bonus round for Rashad Jennings. The passing defense for Atlanta isn't any better. Ranked 30th against the pass, Atlanta is giving up 276 yards per game through the air. They have allowed 14 passing plays of 20+ yards, and 5 40+ yard plays. Victor Cruz should be salsa dancing all over the field. Keep an eye on what Odell Beckham does if he plays as well. Atlanta could prove to be a soft landing spot for the rookie.

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have a mess in the back, so throw it out front. They play the New York Jets in week 5, and if you are going to score against them, the air seems like the way to go about it. The Jets have allowed only 228 yards a game, but they have given up 9 passing touchdowns on the season. Some of the lack of yardage for their opponents can be accounted for by understanding that the Jets offense has been bad, giving up short fields a lot to opposing teams. Phillip Rivers, Keenan Allen, and if he's healthy Malcolm Floyd are all good starts against this defense for the Chargers. Antonio Gates is a wildcard, having a great week 2, and not much else. Eddie Royal is a PPR machine the last few weeks, and may be able to keep that going this week against a bad Jets secondary.

Conversely, there are some teams that have bad games on the schedule for week five. Let's take a look at those games as well.

Washington: We all know that the Seahawks defense is good. Ranked 5th against the run, it seems that it may be a long day for Alfred Morris. Allowing only 72 yards a game and only one touchdown through three games, the Seahawks defense is solid against the run. The passing defense is appearing softer so far, but lets recall they only had a bad game against San Diego, where Phillip Rivers and Antonio Gates had amazing games. Against Denver and Green Bay, Seattle played much tougher, dominating seven of eight quarters in those games. A lapse in the fourth quarter against Denver allowed them to get back in it. That being said, Kirk Cousins is no Peyton Manning. Coming off a terrible game against the Giants in week 4, cousins threw four interceptions last week, and only completed 57.6% of his passes. Add to that a lost fumble, and this certainly wasn't a game to write home about. Left tackle Trent Williams is reportedly still banged up as well, not a good thing against a solid Seattle front line. If you have a choice, I would sit my Washington players this week in favor of better match ups.

Detroit Lions: The Detroit Lions running backs have a tough draw this week against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills come into week 5 with the 3rd ranked rush defense in the NFL. Allowing only 71.5 yards per game on the ground and no touchdowns, running against them seems to be a monumental task. Add to that the fact that Joique Bell and Theo Riddick are unlikely to play, and this match up looks even worse for the Lions. They signed George Winn off of their practice squad this week. Reggie Bush is a decent back, but if this is a one man show, I like the odds of the Bills defense.

Denver Broncos: Sit Montee Ball. Underwhelming so far this season, this is not likely to be his breakout week for the Broncos who play the Arizona Cardinals in week 5. Arizona is the 4th ranked rush defense in the league, giving up only 71.7 yards a game and 2.9 yards per carry. In fact I would not be surprised if this week you saw a bit more of C.J. Anderson in the backfield if Ball struggles early. Someone has to spark the running game, and Ball may be running out of time.

Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis has a tandem of running backs at their disposal. Trent Richardson, while looking slightly better last week, has been an overall disappointment. He has been averaging 3.3 yards a carry, actually an improvement, and 50.8 yards per game. This week the Colts play the Baltimore Ravens, the 7th ranked run defense. Giving up only 82.5 yards a game and only allowing 2 rushing touchdowns on the season, this week figures to be a difficult game for Richardson. Ahmad Bradshaw has been getting his fair share of the work out of the Colts backfield, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, but was a little banged up after last weeks game. Bradshaw was a full participant in practice on Thursday and Friday, so expect him to play, but the Ravens are a good defensive unit, and it won't be easy.

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers backfield is a mess. Losing Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead was not a good thing for the Chargers rushing attack. The likes of Donald Brown have a very difficult match up ahead of them in the New York Jets. The Jets are 1st against the run, allowing only 63.2 yards a game and only 1 touchdown on the season.  I wouldn't play any of the Chargers running backs this week.




Thursday, October 2, 2014

Strategy Scoop: Streaming

This is the first in what I hope to be a long running series where we examine some strategies for helping you win your fantasy leagues year after year. This week we look at roster moves and the streamer.

I am a streamer. I stream lots of positions. Kickers, defenses, tight end, and even in one league quarterbacks. One thing I have learned over the years is that I am usually not alone. There are others out there. Other players fighting every week for the players that I want to stream. How do you defeat this? Planning ahead.

This year it has become very obvious that there are some bad teams. Oakland and Jacksonville are among these teams. A habit I have gotten into is looking ahead two to three weeks to see what match ups are coming up. You will often find that there are some good match ups involving a team like Oakland, and that a team will have a decent game coming this week. with this you can grab a team that will likely do well for you this week, and be set up for the following week as well with likely the best match up of the following week.

Thinking ahead like this will allow you to get a jump on your competition and stay a step ahead of the curve. I suggest that you keep tabs on your favorite two or three selections and maybe carry two defenses, constantly churning one of them per week to grab the best match up for the next week. This will also allow you the flexibility to have another selection made in case your favorite team to play a defense against will be playing a good defense and will already be owned.

If you think ahead and keep one step in front of your competition, you will be set up for success at a position that can sometimes make or break a week for you.

Friday, September 26, 2014

Garage Sale Denver Area

Taking a look at the Denver Broncos schedule and current offensive rankings, it seems like selling while you can may be a good idea. Remember when the price of gold skyrocketed? If you had a bunch of gold, and sold it all in 2011, you would have made tons of money. Now gold still has value, but it has dropped off since its highs. The same holds true for the Denver offense.

Denver has the second hardest schedule for the 2014 season. This fact has not been lost on me, seeing as I own pieces of their offense on my various teams. In the last week I have started to think about using those players to trade up to players with more favorable situations. This thought started to cross my mind as I watched the Broncos play the Seahawks in week 3 of the season. They were shut down for 3 quarters of the game. Now understood that Seattle has a formidable defense, but Seattle is far from the only difficult task throughout the season.

Looking at the Broncos schedule from after their bye in week for on, the outlook is somewhat bleak for their prospects. Let us examine the data. The defensive rankings are through the third week of the season, so small sample size, but I still think the data is likely applicable.

The Broncos opponents average total defensive ranking is 10.07 for the rest of the season. The low outliers are Kansas City at 19 and Cincinnati at 17, both on the road. Denver already played Kansas City in week 2, putting up 24 points. They only managed 88 yards rushing and did not score on the ground. Peyton Manning was 21-26 for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns. In this game Emmanuel Sanders had 8-108, and 3 different Broncos scored. The yardage production for Manning is slightly lower than you might expect against a supposedly depleted secondary at home. The high outliers are at the Jets (2nd in total D) and at New England (3).

What looks like the best case for the Broncos is the opponents run defense, coming in at an average of 15.3. Weeks 5, 6, and 7 look particularly brutal for their run game, as the worst run defense they face is 6th ranked San Francisco. After week 7 it begins to ease up slightly, possibly with some favorable run match ups against the Raiders (31) in weeks 10 and 17, the Rams (29) in week 11, Miami (20) in week 12, and Kansas City (23) in week 13.

The passing defense of Broncos opponents came in at an average of 10.8 rest of season. Only 3 of their opponents are currently ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass defense: Arizona in week 5 (19), Buffalo (26) in week 14, and Cincinnati (17) in week 16. This lends itself to the thought that even with Peyton at the controls, it might be some tough sledding for the Broncos in the passing game. I feel it necessary to note that the passing numbers for Oakland (4) may be flawed as Oakland is the second worst team against the run, so teams do not need to.

No matter what it was going to be difficult to repeat the season Denver had in 2013 in which they set a few offensive records. The difficulty has me interested in getting what I can for my Denver players. After last year, and being so early this year and post bye, you should still be able to get top dollar for many of your Denver guys. I have not been able to find a statistic ranking defense against tight ends, but Julius Thomas has been producing at a high level. I am personally not going to look at trading him where I have him. Emmanuel Sanders is also producing well, having 2 100 yard plus games and averaging 8 catches a game through the first two weeks. If you can sell pretty high on him, do it. If not, holding on to him doesn't seem a bad idea yet.

The rest of the offense is on the block in my leagues. I have been actively seeking a trade for Montee Ball in one league, and would entertain offers for Demaryius given enough value. I don't think I would take much less than another top tier wide receiver and maybe a running back of lower value. Peyton can also bring you a haul. I just traded him in a 2 quarterback league in a 5 player deal giving up Peyton and Alfred Morris and getting back Calvin Johnson, Tony Romo, and DeAndre Hopkins.

If you find the right owner, with the right mix of players, and the right needs, dealing the Denver offense is not a bad idea. You can likely get players to fill holes in your roster, and free yourself from the Broncos match up nightmares.