Taking A Good Look At QB

Wait on one. Take one in the late first round. Don't take one until the mid rounds. The advice on the quarterback position is all over the board. The top 6 scoring players in ESPN standard leagues were quarterbacks. What does this mean? You can get one of them at every part of the draft the advice suggests. But which one to get? I posit that schedule and consistent play can lead you to great situations.

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Last year Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck were a cut above. Scoring 342 and 336 points respectively in ESPN standard scoring. Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning were a tier of their own at 312 and 307. Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees complete the list of pre-cliff QB's scoring 295 and 290. From there it went downhill, but not to despair.

So how to decide when and who to take at the quarterback position? Some of that is personal, and based largely on draft strategy. If a top tier guy falls far enough for me, like Rodgers or Luck in the 3rd round, I might take them. But I myself find that I like to wait and fill out the rest of my roster, and some of my bench, before I snag a QB. There is value in the mid to late rounds of the draft at the QB position.

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Obviously Luck and Rodgers are great quarterbacks, both NFL and fantasy. They were both tied with ffconsistency.com, tops in the league. This season Luck is in prime position to have a stellar performance. Indy has added offensive weapons like Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, Duron Carter, and Phillip Dorsett. Adding those players to TY Hilton and tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener makes one potent offense. Then look at the numbers of the defenses they will face in 2015 and your mouth should start watering. The average rank of the pass defenses that the Colts will face in the upcoming season is 18. They have the 9th best schedule for pass defenses they will face from 2014 numbers. On top of that, they will only face 3 top 10 defenses against the pass from last season. I certainly can't blame anyone for taking Luck in their draft.

81% consistency ratings according to Bob Lung's ratings on

Aaron Rodgers has some good offensive weapons as well in Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Eddie Lacy. Davante Adams still has some proving himself to do, but Arod was singing his praises this off season. The big difference I find between Luck and Rodgers is that Rodgers faces a more formidable schedule of pass defenses. The Packers average pass defense faced for the 2015 season is 13.87, the 26th ranked schedule in the league. They will square off against 7 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. Now don't get this info wrong. I don't think that Rodgers will not play well this season, he is a great  quarterback, but his road is much tougher than Luck.

So let's turn our attention to some mid to late round quarterbacks that, should you choose not to draft Luck and Rodgers, have favorable schedules based on the defenses they will face.

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Drew Brees is currently ranked 42 in average draft position (ADP) on Fantasypros.com. Fantasy Pros uses a blended ranking of multiple sites to give you an average across many platforms. Brees was 75% consistent last season, and about 79% over the past 3 seasons, according to Bob Lung of ffconsistency.com and socalledfantasyexperts.com. This means that Brees has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks over the last 3 seasons. In the upcoming season Brees has the second best ranked schedule of defenses against the pass. The Saints average pass defense faced in 2015 was 22.06, and they won't face a single top 10 pass defense from a year ago. On top of that, they will play a total of 10 games indoors this season. At a 4th round value for a 10 team league, or late 3rd in a 12 team, Brees should definitely be on your radar this season.

Tony Romo is currently a 7th round (10 team) or 6th round (12 team) pick according to Fantasy Pros ADP. Romo was a 73% consistent player last season. This year he has the 8th best schedule against opposing pass defenses from a year ago, an average defense of 18.31. Dallas will only face a top 10 pass defense 4 times this season. With turmoil in the backfield of the Cowboys this off season, it might make sense that Dallas could pass more against the weak pass defenses they will face. As long as everyone pertinent to the Cowboys pass attack makes it out of the preseason unscathed, and Dez Bryant doesn't miss any time, Romo is a guy that is high up on my list for 2015.

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Russell Wilson is pretty good at football. Both running the ball, and passing it. And this season you

might just see the Seahawks open up their offense against some sub-par defenses. The addition of Jimmy Graham will loom large for the Hawks this season. A big physical target in the middle of the field should open up the outside, and the element of surprise will always be with the play action and read option. Wilson had a monster season on the ground in 2014, rushing for 849 yards and 6 scores. In addition to his amazing rushing stats, Wilson threw for over 3400 yards and 20 touchdowns, while only having 7 interceptions. In a sort of contract year, expect only top level play from Wilson in 2015. In terms of consistency, Russell was at 69% last year, good for 7th among quarterbacks. The schedule shapes up nicely for Wilson and the Seahawks passing attack this season as well. They will face the 11th best schedule against pass defenses, averaging 17.56. They will only face 5 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. At 35th overall in ADP his price might be a little bit high for my liking, but he has multiple ways to score you points.

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Last but not least for this article, Eli Manning. I've never been much of an Eli guy, but I am kind of interested in him this season. I do need to hear some good things about the shape of the offensive line for the Giants, and I would like to see Victor Cruz back by the beginning of the season, but it is hard to deny the talent we saw from Odell Beckham Jr. last season. Eli threw for 4410 yards and 30 touchdowns last season, with only 14 interceptions. The new uptempo offense seemed to suit him, and he was able to help make Odell a household name. Eli was  tied for 10th in consistency last season at 56%. The Giants have the 6th best schedule in relation to pass defenses faced from 2014, averaging a rank of 19.37. They will only face 4 top 10 defenses from last year. Assuming that the Giants are able to lock down the line, and Cruz can still play, Eli could be a steal at an ADP of 99 overall. 

So as you can see, yes there are some elite guys out there. They will never be bad selections, but are they necessary? If you can acquire top level talent at other positions that will not be available later in the draft, you can still find your value guys later in the draft.

Sashay Donte

The Indianapolis Colts have had the most prolific offense so far this NFL season. Andrew Luck is on a torrid pace, and his receivers and running backs are coming with him. This week an injury is likely to sideline Reggie Wayne for a week or two, and it may usher in the youth movement in Indy.

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Donte Moncrief is a rookie wide out for the Colts out of Mississippi. He has all the tools to be a great receiver in the NFL with a little work. With Reggie Wayne sidelined, he is likely to get his chance this week. Moncrief stands 6'2 and weighed in at 221 pounds at the combine last spring. His speed and leaping ability will allow him to both stretch the field, and to go up and get balls over the defenders playing him.

At Mississippi, Moncrief was a starter as a true freshman in 2011. That season he started 12 games and led the team in receptions (31), yards (454), and touchdown catches (4). As a Sophomore he played 12 games making 66 catches for 979 yards and 10 touchdowns. In his junior, and final season at Ole Miss, Moncrief had 59 catches for 938 yards and 6 scores.

At the combine he was a co-leader in 40 yard dash times with a 4.4 second time, vertical jump at 39.5 inches, and broad jump at 132 inches. Moncrief possesses a gift of speed and size that are not often found with wide receivers. He is a field stretching talent that can get down field and catch the long bomb, or go up and get a ball up close in the red zone. In college he also showed an awareness of where the yardage marker was to get his team a first down.

So far this season Moncrief has not had a ton of work. His high water mark so far was in week 3 against Jacksonville where he caught 4 of 5 targets for 55 yards. The next two weeks, which coincide with reports of the timeline for Wayne to be out, see the colts play the 13th ranked pass defense of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the 25th ranked New York Giants. The overall average rank of the defenses left on the Colts schedule is 17, middle of the pack. The colts have the easiest schedule this year, and if Moncrief can put up some good numbers with Wayne out, you may not see him coming off the field when Wayne returns.

With the big play making ability of both Andrew Luck, and the skill set of Donte Moncrief, I recommend picking him up this week off of your waiver wire. He would make a good speculative addition for anyone who is needing help at wide receiver and wants to add a guy who is owned in less than 1 percent of ESPN leagues. The opportunity to add a player with his path in front of him, and recently developed opportunity should not be missed. If you are carrying a second quarterback and your main guy has had his bye, you can likely drop the backup and add Moncrief to his spot.

Don't miss the boat on this super talented guy who is about to get his shot in the best offense in the NFL this season. He may tilt the field in your fantasy match ups for the rest of your season.