My Playbook

Showing posts with label wide receiver. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wide receiver. Show all posts

Thursday, August 6, 2015

Mocking the 11 pick in a 12 team league

Mock drafting is a very important part of the preseason regimen that a Fantasy player should go through. I have already completed around 50 mock drafts this season. The process has been made much faster this season after I found the Mock Draft Simulator I wrote about here. Instead of taking an hour, the simulator takes the average draft positions rankings, and simulates a draft for you. You can pick various settings for the rosters and league size, making it a great tool for all kinds of leagues. An upgrade to the pro level on fantasy pros lets you draft against a higher level setting, making your draft game even better.

Image source: greeleytribune.com

Drafting from all the different positions in the draft helps you discover the players that will be available at your picks, and prepares you for your draft.

Knowing the likely rounds you need to take the players you are interested in allows you to put together a solid plan to draft the team you want.
For the first in this series I have decided to pick from the 11 spot. The league setting is a 12 team PPR with two wide receivers, two running backs, and a flex.

So let’s take a look at the mock draft from pick 11.

When my first round pick came up I had some choices. There were some great players still available. Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., Demaryius Thomas, Arian Foster, and CJ Anderson were all available. With only one player in between my first and second picks my selection process is skewed by the talent left at wide receiver. If I take a second tier high level running back there will still be at least one wide out that I would be happy to have on my team when my pick at 14 comes back to me. With only two running backs left that I am interested at this point in the draft, I would not be guaranteed one of them. So my selection was Foster. I wouldn’t fault you for taking Anderson, but as I wrote about Foster earlier this year, I like him a lot this season.

This was written before the injury to Foster in the preseason. That injury makes it imperative in my opinion that you would take Anderson at this spot. He is the best running back left and could be the end of a tier at the position. There will still be the same receivers behind this pick, but you have by far taken the best running back left.

As it turned out

the picks at 12 and 13 were Beckham and Jones, leaving me to take Demaryius Thomas at pick 14. This sets up the situation I am favoring this season in my leagues. In the past I have favored a zero running back approach to PPR leagues, but this year I am leaning more toward taking a running back if the right guy is available. In this draft I now have a great running back and an elite wide receiver to start my draft out. I know that when it gets back to me at the end of round three none of the elite wide receivers or running backs will be left.

When it does come my turn at pick 35

there were still some decent players available. For running backs Lamar Miller, Alfred Morris, Jonathan Stewart were all there to be selected. At wide receiver the available players were Brandin Cooks, Emmanuel Sanders, Kelvin Benjamin, and Julian Edelman. At this point in the draft quarterback can also be a consideration to me, and Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson were available. I am not a huge fan of Miller this year, Morris is not a great back in PPR formats because he doesn’t catch passes, and Stewart has a history of injury so I am not a huge fan of any of these players. If I didn’t already have Thomas as one of my receivers I might take Sanders, but I don’t want two receivers from the same team. With a lot of targets available in the New Orleans offense and a belief that Cooks will be getting his fair share of them, I selected him. Edelman would be a solid choice in a PPR format, but the possibility of Tom Brady missing four games sours me on him at this spot in the draft.

The round four pick, 38 overall left me in a similar spot. I am confident that a quarterback that can touch the elite level will not be around at the end of round five. I have two great wide receivers already so taking a guy I am not sure about in Edelman, and a guy who is unlikely to have the same level of targets and has drop issues in Benjamin is not on my radar. So I decide to do something I don’t usually do and take Peyton. This allows me to stack my elite wide receiver and his quarterback. As I wrote here, I like to stack an elite target and the guy throwing him the ball when it is possible. This satisfies my desire there.

By the time my pick in round five comes around,

59 overall, all of the Top 20 running backs and wide receivers were off the board. Russell Wilson has fallen to this spot, a slight miscalculation on my part, but I’m still happy with Peyton. The best available players on the board at running back are Giovanni Bernard, Carlos Hyde, Latavius Murray, and TJ Yeldon. Travis Kelce and Greg Olson are both available at tight end, but I am not a fan of early tight ends. Yeldon is my pick here. I am gambling on a rookie, but he is a rookie that has the job pretty well locked up. I have recently read some good reports on Yeldon and how well he has picked up the offense. If he can lock down pass blocking, he has a chance to be a three down back.

For my pick at 62 overall Carlos Hyde and Travis Kelce have now come off the board. Latavius Murray and Giovanni Bernard are still available at running back. I am not ready to go with another gamble on a guy who is unproven at running back and is on a team that will likely be trailing a lot. With Roy Helu on the roster, the Raiders have a pass catching back not named Latavius. I am still not a fan of Bernard at this spot so I switch up my thinking a bit. Greg Olson is the fourth ranked tight end on the blended rankings, and since I already have a fairly well rounded setup of starters, I decided to take Olson at this spot. My belief is that in later rounds I can find a few guys to platoon at my flex spot, but I now have a lineup that I am willing to run out every week of the season and take my chances with.

Between rounds six and seven a quarterback run position happens.

This is important to note because this is a likely spot that if you don’t have a quarterback, it’s time to get your man. Since I already do, that allows players to fall to me that were available previously. When my pick at 83 overall comes up, Giovanni Bernard is still on the board. Even though I am not a fan of him this season, as I wrote earlier, every player will have a place in a draft where the value is better than the pick. Bernard will be a great flex player in a PPR league, so he is my pick at 83.
When it comes back around in the eighth round at pick 86 overall there are still some decent values on the board. Rashad Jennings, Joique Bell, LeGarrette Blount are the best running backs on the board. Eric Decker and Larry Fitzgerald are the top receivers left for the taking. Seeing as I have a rookie and a guy I don’t believe in this year on my squad already, I decide to take Joique bell to bolster my running back depth. I don’t like to take Patriots backs since you never know what they are going to do, and Jennings has a hard time staying healthy, so Joique is my guy.

A stoke of good fortune finds me when it comes back to me at 107 and 110.

We find that both Decker and Fitzgerald have fallen to me. These are guys that in the later rounds I am a fan of getting on my teams. I don’t believe in Geno Smith as an NFL quarterback. I think that at some point this season he will be on the bench and Ryan Fitzpatrick gives Decker a lot of opportunity. Fitzpatrick is a decent NFL quarterback with the ability to run a good offense. He is not a top level quarterback, but he is a veteran who knows what he is doing. Fitzgerald is a bit more of a flier than I think Decker is. But in the 10th round he is a good value. If Carson Palmer can stay healthy this season, Fitzgerald should have better numbers than he did with the menagerie of terrible quarterbacks the Cardinals had last year. As my fourth wide out I could do worse.

When my pick comes up in round 11,

131 overall, I found a lot of late round values at the wide receiver spot. Brandon LaFell, Steve Smith, Anquon Boldin, Pierre Garcon, Torrey Smith, and Marques Colston are available. Not much left in the running back bin, so I am now rolling with what I have at running back and am taking the receivers due to their value this late in the draft. As I wrote previously about Boldin, I like him as a late round guy this season.

Pick 134 in the 12th round has me looking at two guys. Pierre Garcon and Marques Colston are my favorite picks left on the board. I love both of these guys in the 12th round this year. I wrote about Garcon in my late round ppr values article this week. I see him as a player with big potential to bounce back this season if he can get some consistent play from the quarterback position. I like Colston late this year too for the same reasons I like Cooks. But therein lies the problem. Having Cooks already on my team makes me not want to draft Colston. If Cooks isn’t already on my roster I would err on the side of the better quarterback situation and snatch up Colston. So Garcon is my guy.

At pick 155 overall in round 13 I pull a fast one.

I sneak in and take the defense I am targeting this year. The Jets are ranked 11th this season by the fantasy pros consensus rankings. To me this is a huge undervaluing of their defense. They have a great front line. Yes it would be better if Sheldon Richardson didn’t keep getting himself in trouble, but they will still have a solid front four. The glaring hole they had last year was at cornerback, and they addressed that in a big way this season. Adding Darrell Revis and Antonio Cromartie to their defensive backfield will bolster their defense and will likely decrease their points allowed, while increasing their turnovers forced. I don’t want to miss out on them, so I take them a little earlier than most would draft a D/ST.

At pick 158 overall, the second in the 14th round I decide to take the top ranked kicker as none of them are off the board yet. This allows me to have the best kicker over the past few years, and locks me in to a kicker I will be happy to run out there for the entire season. I can snipe the top guy and know that most of the other teams are only taking defense and kickers for the rest of the draft, so I can get most of the skill position players that are left on the board with my final pick. You can feel free to take a kicker based on any factor you see fit. Some like a kicker that plays indoors, some like the Denver kicker to add that distance from their thin air. I usually go with Stephen Gostkowski in this position. He’s good. He’s consistent. He’s my pick in round 14.

With my last pick, 179 overall, at the end of the 15th round it is time for a flier.

The best available players on the board are Kendall Wright, John Brown, Larry Donnell, Percy Harvin, Reuben Randle, Kenny Stills, Charles Clay, and Devante Parker. With the Justin Hunter situation in Tennessee probably keeping him out, you can’t really stab people, I decided to take Wright. He is the highest ranked, has the best situation, and plays for a bad team that is likely to throw a lot this year. I could also take Davante Parker in this spot, but I think he will be available a few weeks down the line on waivers when his situation becomes clearer. By that time you might be able to easily discard one or more of your current roster to make room for him as he rounds into playing shape.

A feature I like about the mock draft simulator is that it will give you a rating for your starters, bench, and overall team. My starters were the top ranked in the league for this draft. My bench was only the fifth best according to their metrics, but I would not be planning to use my bench a lot. I also have a fair amount of receivers that I believe have a good chance for resurgent production this year if the chips can fall right for them. I have great wide receiver depth on this team, and if one or two of them can hit, I might have some good trade chips for upgrading at another spot in my lineup.


So we reach the end of the first installment of this look at mock drafting. I hope this article has served to help you in your planning and preparation for your drafts this season. Look for my articles on other draft pick spots in the near future.

Thursday, June 4, 2015

The Wide Receiver I Want Most On My Teams In 2015

Well it has been a long hiatus from writing on this blog, but I'm back. During the playoffs and the off season I didn't stop thinking, just hadn't written anything. But from this point forward, let's get back in the swing of fantasy football together.

The guy I am most interested in at the wide receiver position this season is Julio Jones. Jones was a monster last season for the Falcons offense, and I don't think that is going to change this season.
Image source myajc.com

In 2014 Julio caught 104 passes for 1593 yards and 6 scores. He did miss one game toward the end of the season after a huge game against Green Bay. Barring his broken screw in the foot in 2014 his durability has been decent. Jones played in 13 games his rookie season, 16 games in 2012, and 15 games last year. 

Image source falcfans.com
In 2015 the Falcons will play the easiest schedule in the NFL. Their division is bad. Their schedule is great. Atlanta will face only 2 top 10 pass defenses from 2014. The average ranking of the pass defenses they will face in 2015 was 19.5, the lower half of the league. Another bonus is that the Falcons will play 10 games indoors next season, including their games at Dallas and New Orleans. The indoor surface tends to play faster than outdoor, which could lead to more production for Jones and the potent Atlanta passing attack. Listening to the Fantasy Football Today podcast from CBS this week, the guys said that Kyle Shanahan has a tendency to pepper one player with targets, and one would posit that Jones is the likely recipient of this.

Image source usatoday.com
Finally taking a look at the rest of the team, Roddy White isn't getting any younger. Harry Douglas is
gone. The rest of the WR corps is unproven. The defense, which will likely be improved, will probably not be a world beater. This could lead to many games being shootouts, ballooning Julio's stats even further.

I like Jones in the late first round if all the top tier running backs are off the board. If you have the sandwich picks at the end of round 1 and beginning of round 2 and he is still there, don't let him get past you, I think you'll be sorry.

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Waiver Wire Playoff Edition Week 14

Welcome to the playoffs. If you are still reading this, I assume you made it. Congrats. If you didn't make it and are still reading, you are just as sick as me. Not a lot to love on the waiver wire this week, but a few gambles if you are in bad shape. Let's take a look.

RB

Daniel Herron (IND) is the best healthy running back in Indy. The Colts didn't run a lot last week, but the best back on the field was definitely Herron. Going 8 for 88 and a touchdown and adding 2 catches, Herron is a solid addition to those who have lost their running back in the past few weeks with some starters going down.

Marion Grice (ARI) is a throw of a dart at who will get the touches in Arizona if Andre Ellington is out this week with a hip pointer. Grice got the most work after Ellington went down, but at this point I don't really want anything to do with any part of the Cardinals offense. Grice is a super desperation addition this week as the role of all is not clear. The Cards had recently added Michael Bush to their roster as well, but he had been out of football before getting signed. Proceed with caution with any Arizona running back not named Andre.

WR

Robert Woods (BUF) has been a consistent performer for the Bills over the past few weeks. In week 13 Woods had 4 catches for 71 yards, and in week 12 Woods had 9 catches for 118 yards and a score. The Bills face the Denver Broncos this week, and if Aqib Talib is out again, it might be a good game for the Bills through the air. Denver has allowed 24 touchdowns through the air this season. If you are in need, Woods is a decent addition.

Davante Adams (GB) had himself a game against the Patriots in week 13. Catching 6 balls for 121 yards, Adams was a good performer for the Pack. This week the Packers face the Atlanta Falcons and their worst ranked pass defense on Monday night. There should be plenty of yardage to go around. Adams is a good addition if you need some help at receiver.

Donte Moncrief (IND) has been used sparingly this season, but at some point the Colts have to realize the explosiveness that Moncrief adds to their lineup. In his biggest games this season, Moncrief has had over 100 yards and has scored 3 touchdowns. His production has been off and on, but when he is given a shot he has shown big play ability. Facing Cleveland this week, if the Colts put him on the field, he could have a big day against the second or third corner for the Browns. Moncrief is a gamble, but can provide huge dividends if he hits for you.

QB

Johnny Manziel (CLE) got his first real NFL action last week, and early this week it seems like he might get his first start against the Colts this week. I wouldn't look forward to starting him in a 10 or 12 team league, but in a 2 quarterback or keeper format he should now be rostered. I don't like the idea of a rookie passer, but Johnny Football has the ability to run, including a rushing touchdown last week. 

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Waiver Wire Week 13

The last week before many of you will be entering the playoffs, if you have made it that far. Not a ton of activity for the waiver wire this week, but here is the list of players who may help you going forward.

Running Back 

Image source: zimbio.com
Latavius Murray (OAK) had only 4 touches last week before being sidelined with a concussion, but he had monster numbers with them. Rushing for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns, it seems that once healthy, Murray will see more touches for the Raiders and could likely help a running back poor team out.

Daniel Herron (IND) has taken the place of Ahmad Bradshaw in the Colts backfield, and actually had more touches than Trent Richardson last week. The Colts have a good schedule moving forward, and Herron is likely to continue with at least his current workload. Definitely worth an add if you need running back health.

Image source: sportsworldreport.com
LeGarrett Blount (NE) came right in and scored twice for the Patriots last
week. I am always skeptical of the running back situation in New England, but with Jonas Gray putting himself in the dog house by being late to practice, Blount might be the ground guy moving forward. I think Blount is a risky player, but if you are desperate, you could do worse.

Wide Receiver 

Jarvis Landry (MIA) has 49 catches on the season for the Dolphins, and is averaging almost 50 yards per game over his last 4 games. In a PPR league, Landry is a solid play moving forward and has a decent schedule including games against the Jets in week 13, and Baltimore in week 14. Landry is a flex option for you the rest of the season.

Charles Johnson (MIN) has earned himself some consideration and more playing time in the
Image source: vikings.com
Vikings offense. The next 2 weeks of the schedule are looking good for the Vikings passing game, facing Carolina and the Jets in week 13 and 14, and if your playoffs go through week 17, Chicago is a tasty match up. Johnson had 52 yards and a score last week, and 87 yards on 6 catches in his last two games. Johnson would make a decent flex play with his newly increased role.

Tight End 

Kyle Rudolph (MIN) is back, and actually caught some passes last week. With the previously mentioned good match ups for the Vikings, it seems likely that Rudolph will be a productive player in the black hole that has been much of the tight end position this season. If you have either an under performing or injured tight end, Rudolph should be a suitable replacement for you.

Image source: axs.com
Tim Wright (NE) has had sporadic production this season, but in a world where the tight end position has been hit and miss altogether this season, you could do worse than Wright. The red zone offense of the Patriots has featured Wright for multiple short yardage scores this season, and with some tough match ups ahead, Wright might find himself scoring again at an end zone near you. If I were in a desperate situation, Wright would be on my list of high risk players that may also have a high reward.

My final suggestion this week will be on the defensive front. For those who have been streaming defenses this season, I highly recommend carrying 2 defenses at this point in the year. Take a look at the defenses that are available in your leagues and find one or two that have decent match ups the rest of the season. I would cut a 5th receiver or non stud running back that you are never playing and line up your defensive needs for the rest of the year.

If you have clinched your playoff spot already, congrats. If not, good luck this week locking up that post season berth.

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Match Up Monsters And Misses

Week 12 of the NFL season is already upon us. Seems like just yesterday I was mock drafting around the clock to try to get a feel for the draft value for different players. I blinked, and we are merely weeks away from the end of many peoples seasons, and the tourney to crown a champion for others. Let's take a look at the good and bad match ups for this weeks NFL action.

Match Up Monsters

Image source: mstarz.com
The Cleveland Browns are likely to go through one of the biggest late season transformations of any team in the league. The addition of Josh Gordon back to the receiving corps for the Browns is primed to completely change the Cleveland offense. Gordon has been a prolific pass catcher in the past, and as long as he can be in somewhat game ready shape this week, he figures to have a soft landing spot this week. The Browns face the last ranked pass defense of the Atlanta Falcons this week. Atlanta allows 281.2 yards per game through the air, and Josh Gordon and Andrew Hawkins factor to catch a lot of passes in an offense that threw the ball 50 times last week.

Image source: sbnation.com
Kansas City Chiefs running backs Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis have a great match up on
Thursday this week against the Oakland Raiders. Oakland is allowing 129.8 yards per game on the ground with their 27th ranked run defense. Keeping with the tradition of Thursday night games being great for running plays right into the strength of the Chiefs offense. Charles is always a must start guy, but Davis could see some work as well if the Chiefs get out to a lead, and in spelling Charles.




 Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts wide receivers will likely be out for blood this week after getting trounced last week by the Patriots. Bad news for the Jaguars and their 26th ranked pass defense. Allowing 261.9 yards per game, and 18 touchdowns through the air, the Colts will likely take it to the Jags porous defense. Look for lots of big numbers for the likes of the Colts pass attack.

DeMarco Murray and the Dallas Cowboys running backs should be licking their chops at their match up this week. Facing the worst ranked run defense of the New York Giants who allow 145 yards per game and 13 rushing touchdowns on the season. The Giants were gashed by the Seahawks two weeks ago, and last week gave up 5 yards per carry to Frank Gore last week. Look for Murray and maybe even Joseph Randle to get some quality points for your fantasy teams this week.

Image source: zimbio.com
I've been down on the Chicago Bears offense the last few weeks, and will admit being mostly wrong last week. This week I see a big week ahead for the Bears against the 30th ranked pass defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has given up 20 touchdowns through the air this season, and 266.1 yards per game. This should be a game that Jay Cutler can get right in, and light up the scoreboards in your fantasy leagues with Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, and maybe even some Martellus Bennett. The bears offense is a full go for me.

Match Up Misses 
The New York Jets offense has been a mess this season, and I don't see it getting better this week against the Buffalo Bills defense. Ranked 9th against the run, allowing 99 yards per game and only 5 rushing touchdowns on the season against the pass, it seems like it might be a long day for Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory. The receivers for the Jets might not fare much better against the 7th ranked pass defense the Bills are sporting. Only allowing 222.6 yards per game and 14 touchdowns to 12 interceptions on the season, the Bills run a formidable defense out every week. If you have been playing the Jets offense, I can't say that I see much to like this week.

Image source: appszoom.com
Speaking of a mess, Washington is a hot one. Robert Griffin III was a good college quarterback. Yes, College. In the NFL he is well on his way to being a bust. This doesn't lead to good things for those surrounding him on the offense. This week I expect tough sledding for the Washington running game, namely Alfred Morris. The opponent, the San Francisco 49ers, sports the 6th ranked pass defense in the NFL at 88.6 yards per game and 5 scores on the season. I fully expect the 49ers to stack the box and force RG3 to beat them, and I don't think he can. Alf would likely not be a guy making my starting lineup this week if I had any shares of him.



The injury to Carson Palmer seems to be a bad omen for the Arizona Cardinals offense. Yes, they did face a touch match up last week against the Detroit Lions, but they managed only 2 early touchdowns and held on for dear life shutting down the Lions offense.  This week they will be led into Seattle by Drew Stanton in his second start since Palmer went down. Add to that a grade 2 MCL tear for Larry Fitzgerald, and facing the 3rd ranked pass defense of the Seahawks, and it smells like a recipe for disaster. The Cardinals will likely find a better chance at using Andre Ellington in the run game to try to beat Seattle the same way that the Chiefs did last week. I am sitting my Cardinals wide outs this week.

Image source: whodatdish.com
The New Orleans Saints running backs, be it Mark Ingram alone, or along with any of the rest of the compliment, has a tough game ahead of them against the 5th ranked run defense of the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens only allow 84.5 yards per contest on the ground, and have only given up 6 rushing touchdowns on the season. This does not bode well for Ingram, who managed only 67 yards on 23 carries last week against the Bengals at home. At the time of this writing the status of the other backs for the Saints is not known for week 12, but I can't say I am a fan of starting any of them this week.



Image source: nfl.com
The New England Patriots rushing attack was fantastic last week. This
week however they face a top ranked run defense in the Detroit Lions that allows 68.8 yards per game, and has given up only 4 rushing touchdowns on the season. On top of those dismal stats for the Patriots there is usually no consistency to their game plans from week to week, and it wouldn't shock me if Jonas Gray was used very little. It is hard to say if Shane Vereen will be used much as a receiver out of the backfield, but if I was forced to start a Patriots running back this week, Vereen would likely be the one. The Lions have a stout defense, and relying on Gray is not on my to do list this week.

And so ends another match up monsters here in week 12. Some great games await us this weekend, and I hope that these takes on the match ups upcoming provide you with some insight into what may be in the future of your fantasy teams. Start that ideal line up this week and lets hit that playoff push hard together. Good luck this week!

Monday, November 17, 2014

Waiver Wire Week 12

At this point in the season, teams that are pushing toward the fantasy playoffs should be fairly well set. As is such, the waiver wire pickups that are made from now moving forward will most likely be defensive ones, or to get players to fill in for guys who get injured. This week there were some important players going down with injuries. Let's take a look at the guys you might need to pick up this week.

TE

Julius Thomas and Dwayne Allen both went out with ankle injuries in week 11, and the entirety of the tight end position has been pretty scarce outside a few outliers this season. Here are a few guys you can look to use to replace these guys if they miss any real time.

Image source: zimbio.com
Jacob Tamme (DEN) is a solid addition if you have a tight end need if Julius Thomas is out. Tamme knows the offense, and he is familiar with Peyton. I can't tell you that he is going to be Julius, but he has shown the ability to catch passes and score in the past.

Coby Fleener (IND) had a monster game against the Patriots on Sunday night in a losing effort. Assuming that Dwayne Allen misses any time, look for Fleener to be able to see good production on what should be a pass heavy offense and a good schedule for the rest of the season.
Image source: blog.redskins.com

Niles Paul (WAS) could also see an increase in targets and production with the possibility of Jordan
Reed out for any significant time. Reed can't seem to stay healthy, and in his absence earlier this season, Paul was a good fantasy option.

Kyle Rudolph (MIN) was a disappointment in his first game back since his early season injury, but should hopefully see some targets and production in the coming weeks. One issue with the Minnesota offense is that it is a mess. Teddy Bridgewater is having a hard time getting positive results, and that may hamper the ability of Rudolph to score for you.

Garrett Graham (HOU) is a guy to think about. With a change in quarterback to Ryan Mallett in week 11, Graham found his way to the end zone and his highest fantasy score this season. While he only had 2 catches, if he proves to be a trusted asset for Mallett, he could see an uptick in production.

RB 


Image source: pro32.ap.org
CJ Anderson (DEN) is a player that gained huge relevance after Sundays games. With Ronnie Hillman now possibly out for up to 6 weeks, and Montee Ball re-injuring his groin in his first game back, it seems that Anderson might be the guy the rest of the season for the Broncos. CJ didn't do much on the ground in a game where the Broncos were trailing early, but he was big in the passing game with 8 catches for 86 yards. If the other players in your league didn't pick him up in week 11, punish them for this transgression in week 12.

Juwan Thompson (DEN) is now the likely handcuff for the Broncos assuming that they don't sign another back this week. Thompson has been getting some goal line work in recent weeks, and is a solid pass blocker. If you have CJ Anderson, Thompson is a must add this week.

Ryan Mathews (SD) was back this week, and had a healthy workload. Moving forward look for Mathews to be the feature back for the Chargers down the stretch. In the same situation last season, Mathews proved to be up to the challenge. If he is still floating on your wire, pick him up.

Image source: houseofhouston.com
Alfred Blue (HOU) had a huge game in week 11 with Arian Foster out. Carrying the ball 36 times
for 156 yards, Blue proved an adequate replacement in the Houston offense. If Foster misses more time, Blue is a viable option to help out a struggling running back situation for your fantasy team.

Trent Richardson (IND) might be a desperation add for a team who has lost a running back or just needs a guy that is likely to get work. Ahmad Bradshaw left the game on Sunday night for the Colts, and was in a boot and on crutches after the game. These are not good things for a guy with a history of foot issues. I can't tell you Richardson is too impressive as an NFL running back, but if the alternative is nothing, he's probably better than that.

WR 

Image source: foxsports.com
Josh Gordon (CLE) is back in week 12. And Brian Hoyer was chucking the ball all over the field in week 11. Throwing the ball 50 times in week 11, look for Gordon to see plenty of targets for a Cleveland team that will welcome him back and look to push toward the playoffs.

Andrew Hawkins (CLE) is a PPR machine. And with Josh Gordon returning, Hawkins will likely have some more space to work in. Hawkins is only owned in 45% of ESPN leagues, and can give you a PPR boost to get you to the mountain top that is your playoffs.

Kenny Britt (STL) is a name you might want to look at. I am not a fan of him, but he is the guy for the Rams, and I use this same logic with why to love Kelvin Benjamin. I would only suggest to add Britt if you have no other options, as the Rams will be playing some tough defenses in the remainder of the season. Proceed with caution and at your own risk.

QB 

Image source: houseofhouston.com
Ryan Mallett (HOU) had a decent debut for the Texans. Mallett had 211 yards and 2 touchdown passes for the Texans, and an interception that was on a tipped ball in the end zone. A fantastic remaining schedule remains for Houston, with match ups against the Bengals, Titans, Jaguars, Colts, Ravens, and Jaguars again to end the season. Not a whole lot to be scared of there, except the fact that Mallett has 1 start.

Brian Hoyer (CLE) is a guy to look at if you are stuck at
Image source: cleveland.com
quarterback. If we believe that Josh Gordon and Andrew Hawkins will both remain productive wide receivers for the rest of the season, it seems to make sense that the guy throwing them the ball will also be putting up some decent numbers. Good match ups remain for the Cleveland passing attack the rest of the season featuring: Atlanta, Buffalo, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Carolina, and Baltimore to close out the season. Hoyer is a good addition to a 2 quarterback league, or as slight gamble for a team with an under performing signal caller.

All the players on this list are either plug in now or handcuff options that can give you the stability and depth to help you surge the last few weeks to make a run for your championship. Make good choices and good luck this week!

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Monster Match Ups And Misses Week 11

The week 11 match up monsters and misses features some surprising teams and position groups. Let's take a peek into the good and bad match ups for the 11th week of the NFL season.

The Good 
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The Carolina Panthers have a great match up this week for their wide receivers and tight ends against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons pass defense has been pretty terrible this season allowing 280.8 yards per game to opposing receivers. Look for huge games out of Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olson in week 11. Also Cam Newton will be a benefactor of the soft passing defense, and should be a good start if he is floating around on your waiver wire.

Houston Texans running back, whether it be Arian Foster, or Alfred Blue if Foster is out, should have a good game against the Cleveland Browns running defense. Cleveland has allowed 134.2 yards per game on the ground to opposing running backs on the season, and the Texans are a run first team. Keep an eye on the injury and practice reports this week to see if Foster plays if you are a Blue owner. Both guys might be a good play if both are healthy and play, but Blue moves way up the ranks if Foster is out.

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The Minnesota Vikings wide outs have a monster opportunity to take advantage of a reeling Chicago Bears defense that was throttled by the Green Bay Packers last week. Look for Teddy Bridgewater to have the best game of his young career in week 11. Greg Jennings and Cordarelle Patterson are good starts this week in my opinion, as the bears have allowed 268.6 yards per game and a whopping 23 receiving touchdowns so far this season. Look for Kyle Rudolph to get back into practice this week, and if he does, you may consider playing him as well this week.

San Francisco 49ers running backs are primed for success this week against a New York Giants defense that gave up 350 yards on the ground in week 10 to the Seattle Seahawks. The Giants are now the worst ranked run defense in the league allowing 144.7 yards per game on the ground, and 13 rushing touchdowns on the season. Look for Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde to feast upon the corpse of the Giants Defense. Gore is a must start, and Hyde has been getting goal line work as of late, and could be a flex start in a pinch.

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The Philadelphia Eagles running backs have a good match up against the 30th ranked run defense of
the Green Bay Packers in week 11. Green Bay has been allowing 142.6 yards per game on the ground this season, and 9 rushing scores on the year. It also figures that the Eagles may want to try to play a little ball control against the prolific offense of the Packers. Look for LeSean McCoy to provide you some fantasy performance in this week 11 match up.

The Bad

The Buffalo Bills wide outs have a monumental task ahead of them in week 11. Not only do they have a short week, playing on Thursday night, but they also face off against the 2nd ranked pass defense of the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have only allowed 210.8 yards per game through the air on the season, and Thursday night games have historically proved to be a bad influence on the passing game of its participants. On top of all of this, Sammy Watkins has a groin injury that left him questionable and largely ineffective last week. If you have better options than the Bills wide receivers this week, sit your Bills.

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Miami Dolphins running backs have a similar plight to the Bills this week. Injury and bad match ups leave me not wanting anything to do with the Dolphins running game this week. Lamar Miller has a sprained AC joint which saw him limited to only 5 touches last week. On a short week it is unlikely that he will be in much better shape this week. The choices behind Miller are not particularly good either. A rookie in Damien Williams and Daniel Thomas would not make me feel very good about my squad if that is who I were running out there. Sit your Dolphins running backs this week.

Tre Mason and the St. Louis Rams running game have a tough draw this week against the top ranked run defense of the Denver Broncos. Denver is only allowing 67 yards per game and only 5 rushing scores on the season. Along with that bad stat for the Rams, it seems likely that the Rams will fall behind, and the running game will become a forgotten thing early in this game. I can't think of a reason I would want to start a Rams running back this week against the Broncos.

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The wide receivers of the Houston Texans have a touch draw this week against the 12th ranked pass defense of the Cleveland Browns. The Browns made Andy Dalton and the Bengals passing game look pedestrian last week. That and the fact that Cleveland has been bad against the run, and Houston runs a lot leave me wanting to sit my Houston wide outs this week against the Browns. The ascension of Ryan Mallett to starter also leaves us with a question as to how the Texans pass game will look. Mallett is unproven as a starter, and I am not willing to gamble on him if my team needs a win this week.

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The Chicago Bears dysfunctional passing game has another tough draw this week against the Minnesota Vikings and their 4th ranked pass defense. Allowing only 213.6 yards per game through the air, Minnesota has been stingy for opposing wide receivers. Brandon Marshall has an injury that at the time of this writing, looks like it may keep him out or limit him. That would leave the Bears with a one dimensional passing attack with Alshon Jeffery as the only down field threat for the corners of the Vikings to worry about. In addition, Jay Cutler has been playing a pretty terrible brand of football as of late, and seems to be severely lacking in confidence. I don't really want to run my Bears passing game out there this week if I have better match ups.

That brings us to the end of our monster match ups and misses for week 11. Some teams not often thought of in the good match ups this week, and a few teams that find themselves with some touch match ups for sure. Hopefully this will help you make educated decisions to get yourself a big late season fantasy win. Good luck this week!

Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Start/Sit: Week 11

Week 11 already. Fantasy playoffs on the horizon. Where did the season go? Hopefully it has gone well for you and you are making your preparations to dominate your playoffs. I'm here to try to help you to a win this week with some start/sit advice.

Start

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Kelvin Benjamin (CAR) has been about the only weapon through the air that the Panthers have been able to consistently count on. Lining up opposite the now worst ranked pass defense in the league in the Atlanta Falcons this week, Benjamin is set up to have a monster game. Atlanta is allowing 280.8 yards per game through the air and doesn't have anyone that can really match up against the size and speed of Benjamin. Look for him to have a big game this week.

Golden Tate (DET) is a player that loyal Fantasy Squads readers may recall I wrote about previously. Tate is a fantastically talented receiver, and the return of Calvin Johnson to the field did not slow him down. In week 10 Tate had 11 catches for 109 yards against a top tier defense of the Miami Dolphins. In week 11 the Lions face off against the 30th ranked passing defense of the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards have allowed 274.2 yards per game to opponents through the air. There should likely not be a week you take Tate out of your lineup the rest of the season, and certainly not this week.

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Martavis Bryant (PIT) has exploded on the scene in Pittsburgh. Scoring 6 touchdowns in his first 4 games, Bryant has shown a wide range of skills. From deep ball threat, to solid red zone target, what can't Bryant do? With a weakened and old defense in for the Steelers, most of their games are likely to feature lots of passing down the stretch. This week the Steelers take on the Titans in Tennessee. The Titans have the 11th ranked pass defense in the NFL going into this week, but this stat may be a function of their terrible run defense. If you don't have to pass against them, why do it? Well I think the Steelers will have to pass against them at least a bit, and Bryant is a versatile player that is in a good offense opposite Antonio Brown taking most of the extra attention. Get Bryant in your lineup this week.

DeSean Jackson (WAS) laces them up against the 31st ranked pass defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 11. Tampa bay has given up 277.1 yards per game on the season, and allowed 19 receiving touchdowns to only 6 interceptions. Jackson has proven to still be a big deep pass threat this season, and I would look for him to get loose for at least one big play this week.

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Cordarelle Patterson (MIN) has been a big disappointment this season. Being ranked in the top 24 of wide receivers in the preseason by many fantasy analysts, Patterson has not performed. In the Vikings last game, there were some signs of life, including added usage, and him breaking free on a busted coverage only to be overthrown by Teddy Bridgewater. Look for the Vikings to have used the bye week to work on some timing and chemistry to fully take advantage of their match up against the 28th ranked pass defense of the Chicago Bears. The Bears were just torched on Sunday Night Football for 6 first half touchdowns by the Packers. Yes, Teddy is not Aaron Rodgers, but the Bears passing defense is terrible, allowing the second most (23) receiving touchdowns on the season. Take a chance on Patterson this week, I think you might be rewarded.

Sit

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Sammy Watkins (BUF) tweaked his groin in practice last week, and was largely ineffective in week 10. The news doesn't get much better in week 11 when the Bills will face off against the number 2 pass defense of the  Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night football. The Dolphins are only allowing 210.8 yards per game to opposing teams via the pass, and have allowed 14 touchdowns through the air on the season. I say this speaking as a guy who just traded for Watkins last week, I'm likely sitting him this week in favor of another wide receiver or flex option.

Lamar Miller (MIA) continues our Thursday night flare on the sit column. Miller has a sprained AC joint in his shoulder, and was only able to manage 5 touches in week 10 against the Lions. This week the Dolphins face the 8th ranked run defense of the Bills on a short week. The short turn around for the Dolphins, coupled with the lack of touches in last weeks game don't bode well for Miller and his chances this week. If I were a miller owner, I would be looking for another option for this week.

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Bobby Rainey (TB) has been a sometimes bright spot this season for the Bucs. This has been due to the fact that there are not really any bright spots at all for them. Rainey will have his workload cut into by the recently activated Charles Sims, and didn't do much with his 6 carries last week, only gaining 14 yards. Rainey did slightly better in the passing game, 4 catches for 42 yards, but facing the 14th Washington run defense who has been somewhat stingy with the rushing touchdowns, and only allowing 110 yards per game on the ground, I am not a fan of starting Rainey this week.

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The next section will be dedicated to the three headed not so scary monster that is the Detroit Lions backfield. The first key issue is that they can't stay healthy. Reggie Bush has had a very hard time staying on the field, and it seems as if he is alternating missing time with Joique Bell this season. The guy who has been putting up the best fantasy numbers has been Theo Riddick, and he only played 7 snaps last week, he just happened to be the one to catch a touchdown pass on one of them. This week against the 3rd ranked pass defense of the Arizona Cardinals, who only allow 78.6 yards per game on the ground, I can see the reason to start any of the Lions running backs. I am not even sure at this point I would want to be taking up a roster spot with any of them.

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Tre Mason (STL) is the man out front, sometimes, for the Rams running game. The indecision by Jeff Fisher as to what he is doing with his running backs, along with the lack of overall production team up to make Mason a sit this week in my book. Facing the top ranked run defense of the Denver Broncos, who allow 67 yards per game on the ground, does not make me change that opinion in any way. It will likely be a long week for the Rams if, more like when, Denver gets out to a big lead on them. If the rams are getting blown out, the game will turn to more passing for the Rams, and Mason is not a good pass blocker as of yet, so may not even be on the field much. Sit Mason this week.

That is the finale of our look at starts and sits this week. I hope to have given you some helpful information to make good decisions for your fantasy rosters this week. Good luck!

Monday, November 10, 2014

Waiver Wire Week 11

Heading into the home stretch for the 2014 fantasy season. It seems like it has gone by so fast. Just the other day we were all cramming our heads with all the information we could to draft our teams as best we could. Now we are just weeks away from the fantasy playoffs. Lets take a look at the guys you might add to your roster this week to bolster your squad for upcoming battle.

RB 
CJ Anderson (DEN) got the bulk of the work in week 10 after Ronnie Hillman went down with a foot
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injury. The news on Monday morning is that Hillman will miss 2 weeks with a foot sprain. Bring on the cloudy situation in the Denver backfield. Anderson has been in and out of favor with the Broncos this season. With Montee Ball inactive in week 10, still out with the groin injury that has sidelined him the past few weeks, Anderson got 90 yards on 13 carries and caught 4 balls for 73 yards, including a 51 yard touchdown catch. The water is murky on the Denver running back situation with the impending return of Ball, and the hot and cold attitude of the Broncos on Anderson. I would add Anderson and hope some clarity comes during the week. Trying to add him and Montee Ball is the smart play if you want to own the Denver backfield.

Damien Williams (MIA) was the recipient of the most carries for the Dolphins on Sunday. Even with Lamar Miller active, he did not see much work after spraining his AC joint in his shoulder. The Dolphins had a tough run match up last week against the Lions, and it doesn't get a lot easier moving forward. Williams had the best average on his runs, going for 4.9 yards per carry. Confounding the situation is the fact that there were reports on Monday that the Dolphins were adding LaMichael James to their active roster. Given the unclear situation and the bad schedule coming up, I would avoid the Dolphins backfield altogether.

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Rashad Jennings (NYG) is a good addition if he was dropped in your leagues. The Giants run game has been terrible with Andre Williams. Since taking over for Jennings, Williams has a high water mark of 66 rushing yards. He has done nothing to keep the job when Jennings gets back. The schedule for the Giants breaks nicely as we head into the fantasy playoffs, and if Jennings is unowned, snatch him up.

QB 

Drew Stanton (ARI) is a decent addition for very deep leagues and 2 quarterback leagues. With Carson Palmer out for the season, this is now Stanton's job. A daunting task for the Cardinals quarterback awaits, facing the Seahawks twice, the Lions, and the Chiefs the rest of this season. Temper expectations, but if you are playing match ups, he will play Atlanta in week 13 if you need a quick boost to win a playoff spot. Week 15 will also provide a good match up against the Rams, albeit in St. Louis. 

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Michael Vick (NYJ) didn't wow you through the air, or on the ground, but if you are in trouble at the quarterback position, Vick likely has the higher upside of the available quarterbacks in your deep or 2 quarterback leagues. Vick has the chance of big rushing numbers every week for the Jets. His ceiling is very high, and conversely, his floor is very low. I would say that in case of emergency, break glass. The next two match ups for the Jets see them play good defenses in Buffalo and Miami. The next two games which start the fantasy playoffs see much easier tasks playing at Minnesota and at Tennessee. Vick may provide you a boost in the first weeks of your playoffs.

WR 

Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) should be owned in every fantasy league in the galaxy. Beckham announced his presence with authority this week, beating Richard Sherman deep on more than one play. Beckham is a talented reciever and has a role carved out for him in the Giants offense for the rest of the season with the absence of Victor Cruz. Odell is only owned in 57.5% of ESPN fantasy leagues, snatch him up if he isn't in yours.

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Jarvis Landry (MIA) has been a decent PPR play in recent weeks averaging 5 catches a week over his last 5 games. Landry so far has not been a flashy play with huge upside, but he has been pretty consistent. If you are missing a usually solid player, or just want to add some consistent play to your bench just in case, Landry is a solid addition.

John Brown (ARI) is one of the best stories of the season. A small receiver who has had some big numbers in games this season. Brown, and now quarterback for the Cardinals, Drew Stanton have had chemistry so far when they have been on the field together. Brown has both caught long bombs for scores, and underneath passes a la Wes Welker. Brown has 5 scores on the season, and if you are picking up Stanton, you may consider adding brown to double up on the scoring.

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Martavis Bryant (PIT) is only owned in 60.4% of ESPN leagues. Martavis Bryant has only caught 6
touchdowns in his 4 games for the Steelers. Yes his touchdown rate may be unsustainable, but with Antonio Brown on the opposite side, he is unlikely to get double coverage. Bryant has both the ability to catch short passes, and the long ball, as evidenced by his 80 yard touchdown in week 10. A big receiver who has tons of speed and skill, Bryant may be the guy that wins you a championship. If he is unowned, go get him.

TE 

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Mychal Rivera (OAK) has averaged 7 catches over his last 3 games, and is averaging a score in each. Rivera is the Raiders best red zone target, and has found some good consistency in the last few weeks in some good match ups. Coming down the stretch games against Kansas City, St. Louis, and San Francisco provide some solid opportunities for Rivera to score for your fantasy team. If your tight end has been under performing, Rivera may be the shot in the arm you need to bring home the trophy.

Charles Clay (MIA) is a boom or bust guy for a PPR league. In his last 5 games he has 7, 5, 1, 4, 3 catches per week. Clay has scored in two of those games, but is mainly an emergency outlet for Ryan Tannehill. If you are desperate at the tight end spot, and there isn't much out there, Clay might be worth a look.

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Kyle Rudolph (MIN) should be making his return soon. Rudolph was highly touted this preseason with
Norv Turner taking over the offensive coordinator spot for the Vikings. The early season injury for Rudolph likely led to many of his owners dropping him. If you have a hole in your tight end spot in your weekly lineup, Rudolph should be returning to the field soon. I would consider him a speculative add at this point in the season, but one that could help a starved fantasy owner in the quagmire that has been tight end this season.

That brings us to the finish on this weeks waiver wire adds. One suggestion I would have this late in the year is to only fill glaring holes or add depth for injured guys if you are not cutting a better player or one with more upside to take a flyer on these players. Your roster should be fairly well set, barring injuries, at this late date in the season. Good luck this week!