Start Sit Week 4

Image Source: foxsports.com

Welcome in once again to another start sit column. I'm writing this after having watched the abomination that was another Thursday night football game. The offense in these games is painful to watch. It is a marginal product at its best, and is not safe for the players. But the money will keep them coming back. I digress.
So for the fourth week of the season there are some great match-ups, and some not so good. This is, as always what we strive to unearth every week. So let us take a look at the players who we should start and sit this week.

Start

Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets
Ivory was active last week for the Jets, but did not get a touch. This week Ivory has said that he feels much better than last week, and he has been participating in practice. The Jets play in the London game this week, and will kick off at 9:30 am eastern. This will require you to make an early decision on him, but as long as he is active, I would start him. The Dolphins defense has been a huge disappointment so far this season. Allowing 145 yards per game on the ground so far this season, Miami is like a matador to opposing running backs. Ole, and start Ivory.

All the Bears and Raiders
Obviously this is meant for the top tier starters for these teams. I would include in this Amari Cooper, Alshon Jeffery, Latavius Murray, Matt Forte, and of course Martellus Bennett. With Gronk out, many fantasy analysts have Bennett as the top tight end this week. The Raiders can't stop the tight end. This is evidenced by them allowing a career day to Gary Barnidge last week, which in turn allowed me to win a bet where I now get to kick the loser in the face. Defense will not be at a premium in this game, and I would start all my players in this game with confidence.

Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
Foster has been out since the preseason with a groin injury. It has become possible that he will get into the action this week for the Texans. If Foster is active, he is a must start in my opinion. Foster usually will not come back from an injury unless he is ready to go. Houston will face the Atlanta Falcons this week. The Falcons are middle of the pack in yards allowed on the ground, but they have given up six rushing scores through three weeks. If you drafted Foster this year you have been waiting for him to come back. Bask in his glow while you can.

Karlos Williams, RB, Buffalo Bills
Williams has been a very bright spot for the Bills so far this season. So far on the season Williams is averaging 62 yards per game on the ground, but he has also scored a touchdown every week so far. The Giants are actually the second ranked run defense by yards allowed, but I believe that is a bit of fools gold. The Bills are a good run blocking unit. I expect the rookie to have a solid week.

Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers
Gordon has had positive and negative press in the Fantasy community so far this season. He has not been able to pass block, and a lot of his role has been taken by Danny Woodhead. This week the Chargers and Gordon take aim at the worst run defense in the league, both this year and last. The Browns have allowed 158 yards per game so far this season. I expect Gordon to be able to gash them, and hopefully get himself a nice long score. Gordon should be a solid RB2 or flex play for your squad this week.


Sit

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Bucs
Martin has opened the season with three great match ups this season. The problem is that he has looked every bit of the Martin we saw over the last two years. Martin has been unable to take advantage of his beneficial schedule early this season. This week Martin squares off against the fourth ranked by yards run defense of the Carolina Panthers. Carolina is only allowing 75.7 yards per game. The offensive line of the Bucs is not very good either. This seems to be the perfect storm to keep Martin's numbers down this week.

Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins
I have lost my faith in Miller and the Dolphins. Miller has been abysmal so far this season, and the Dolphins have been under-performing on both sides of the ball. The Jets have a good defense, even though they are middle of the pack in yards allowed per week. The Dolphins have not blocked well, passed well, and definitely haven't run well. I am not interested in starting any piece of their offense outside of Jarvis Landry, and that is only because of volume in a PPR.

Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Hyde looked amazing on the first Monday night of the season. Then he got banged up during Week 2. And in Week 3, the box was stacked. The rest of the league knows that Colin Kaepernick is not a good quarterback. They are willing to stack the box and let Kaep throw and force him to beat them. You can expect this to remain the case for the rest of the season. This week against Green Bay I expect the same, and with coverage for the Packers being pretty good, they can afford to push forward and force the issue.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Bucs
Evans has been out or a decoy in two of three games this season. So how can I tell you to sit him? Josh Norman. The corner for the Panthers has been making his case to be the next shutdown corner in the NFL, and he is making it well. With a rookie quarterback in Jameis Winston, and facing off against one of the better defensive units in the league, I am thinking that I will take my chances with whoever I was playing while he was out.

Defenses to stream

Green Bay Packers are a solid streaming choice this week. The 49ers almost fooled us in Week 1. But their true colors have shined through since. I expect a solid game from the Packers, and even though the game is in San Francisco, I am starting the Packers defense this week.

San Diego Chargers face off against the Cleveland Browns. Possessing a good secondary will help to control Travis Benjamin. The Browns have been a bad running unit and I can't see this changing much this week. I think the Chargers at home this week are a good option for a defensive streamer.

Quarterbacks to stream

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, New York Jets is facing off against the middle of the road pass defense of the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have allowed six passing touchdowns on the season. If Fitzpatrick has all of his weapons back, he is a solid streaming option this week.

Brandon Weeden, QB, Dallas Cowboys faces off against a New Orleans Saints defense that has allowed six touchdowns on the season. The Saints have not intercepted a pass on the season, a good thing for a quarterback that is a backup. With another week under his belt, and a chance to get more comfortable with his abilities and limitations, I can see using Weeden for an emergency fill in this week.

We reach the end of another start sit for Week 4. It's crazy to think that we are already in the fourth week of the season. It's going so fast. All the buildup of the off-season and drafting has come down to this. Take this information and use it for good this week. Good luck!

Start Sit Week Three

The Week Three slate is underway. Game on! The Giants played a great all-around game on Thursday night, taking it to the Redskins. OBJ looked good. Reuben Randle had the game of his life. And Washington was handled. Their offense was stuck in the mud. Now we head into the weekend slate of games. All teams still playing this week for the last time until Week 12.

So here we are again. Meeting here is becoming commonplace these days. I don’t mind. Always happy to talk about Fantasy and give you my thoughts about players and their situations. Who do I like this week? Who do I not like? What defense am I interested in? What quarterbacks can be streamed this week? Well let me tell you what I think.

Image Source: nflspinzone.com

Start

John Brown, WR, Arizona

Get used to Brown being on this list. He is a great player in a great situation. As long as Carson Palmer, the offensive line, and Brown stay healthy, he’s pretty much a weekly starter in this offense. Brown has had decent stats so far, and a monster is coming. On top of his nine catches for 91 yards and a score, Brown has drawn two pass interference calls. This week the Cardinals play a 49ers defense that was lit up by the Steelers last week. Still reeling, I don’t believe the 49ers are the team from Week One, and are actually the leaky boat that played Week Two. A big game is in the works for John Brown. Don’t let him have it from your bench.

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle

Graham was missing in action last week in Green Bay. One catch on two targets and one leak that he is pissed. This week the lowly Chicago Bears come to town to face an 0-2 Seahawks squad that will be looking to make a statement to the league. Chicago is weak on both offense and defense. The walking wounded roster of the Bears is likely to be missing Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery. The defense for the Bears is not in much better shape. This is the reset season. Ctrl+alt+delete on the whole team. The defense is a 4-3 squad being made to play in a 3-4 scheme. This preseason I saw Jared Allen dropping into coverage. Not something I would want to see from my team. This leads me to want to play Graham this week. I expect Seattle to score at will. And if they get in close, expect them to try to feed Graham, pissed or not.

Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland

Murray faces a Browns team this week that was dead last in run defense last season. Even with additions this year, they still aren’t a good unit. In their first game of the season the Browns allowed Chris Ivory to run for 91 yards and two scores. Last week they allowed Dexter McCluster to run for 98 yards. Murray had 65 yards on the ground last week and a score. I expect to see him run a lot this week. I have him inserted in my starting lineups where I have him, and so should you.

Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis

Gore has some of the Fantasy world concerned. Not this guy. I had no desire to have any shares of Gore this season, yet ended up with him on multiple squads. At some point a value is too good to pass up. At this point I have absolutely no idea what to think of Gore. The first two weeks of the season were against some very good defensive units. The Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets were 11^th and fifth against the run last season. The schedule gets a bit better for the next two weeks, and if you have Gore and are ever going to play him, this is the week. Don’t let his good matchups go to waste and fire him up this week.

CJ Anderson, RB, Denver

Anderson was a very early draft pick, and he has not met expectations. A toe injury and some very bad offensive line play have hampered the efforts of Anderson so far this season. Normally I wouldn’t be telling you that a matchup with the Lions is just what the doctor ordered. The Lions were the top ranked run defense last season. But this year is different. Suh is gone. Levy is out. And the Lions are letting you run. I am a staunch supporter of Anderson, in fact completing a trade for him in a league today, and writing an article in support of trading for him you can read here. With 10 days off, Anderson has had time to heal and has been a full participant in practice so far this week. Get him in your lineup this week.

Sit

Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

Miller has been pretty much a disappointment so far this season. Miller left last week with an ankle injury. What he did before that wasn’t very impressive. Only rushing for a total of 67 yards in the first two weeks, and catching six passes for 50 yards is not a good start. Miller has returned to practice on Thursday, but his matchup leaves a lot to be desired. The Buffalo Bills travel to take on the Dolphins this week. The Bills had a stout run defense last year and shut down the Colts in Week One. Week Two the Patriots solved the riddle to an extent, but Dion Lewis only had 40 yards rushing. I can’t see a banged up Miller doing a lot on the ground for the Dolphins, and if you have another option get him on your bench.

Matt Forte, RB, Chicago

Forte might be the only healthy guy on the Bears offense. Don’t think that this fact will escape the 0-2 Seahawks. The box will likely be stacked against Forte until likely starter Jimmy Clausen makes them back off. Forte is going to have a long day, with Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery highly likely to be out this week. I would sit Forte if you have a capable replacement on your bench.

DeMarco Murray, RB, Philadelphia

Murray has been bad. It’s not all his fault. The offensive line play has been atrocious. The quarterback play has been worse. And the offense is a giant pile of smoldering garbage. Expect it to erupt into flames on Sunday this week. In addition to the issues the Eagles have been having, Murray left practice on Wednesday with a hamstring injury. This sit recommendation might be moot by Sunday if Murray cannot go. And we haven’t even considered the matchup. Say hello to the Jets. Yeah, the ones who shut down the Colts high powered offense last week. If Murray plays, I would be expecting the status quo of the season. Sit your Murray shares this week.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans

Brees and the Saints offense have not played well so far. And now Brees has a shoulder injury that might affect his throwing and distance. Weakness in the shoulder is a side effect of a rotator cuff contusion. This does not make me feel confident in an offense that has struggled in scoring so far this season. And the Saints draw the Carolina Panthers and their stout defensive line and secondary. With a loss of identity apparent, a tough matchup in front of him, and an injury to his throwing shoulder, I have to suggest benching Brees this week.

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay

Martin has had some favorable matchups in the first two weeks of the season. Sadly he hasn’t done a lot with them. On 32 carries so far this season, Martin has had only 130 yards. Three catches for 22 yards are not much of a boost. And these numbers came against the Titans and the Saints. This week the Bucs face the 10^th ranked run defense from last season in the Houston Texans. The front seven for the Texans is a very strong unit. I fail to see how a bad matchup against a good defense is going to be the breakout that Martin owners are looking for. Sit Martin this week.

Defenses to stream

New England Patriots

The Pats play the Jaguars this week. Last season a streaming strategy was to get who the Jags were playing. I have not seen a reason to change this yet.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons face a Cowboys squad that is reeling after losing their top wide receiver and their quarterback in the first two weeks of the season. Despite a stout line their running game has not been impressive. I want to play the defense that plays the Cowboys until either Romo returns or they prove me wrong.

Quarterbacks to Stream

Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee

Mariota had a great debut in Week One. And then he came back down to earth last week. But Mariota is accurate, and accuracy is not something everyone has. This week facing the Colts, I could see Mariota having a good game. Consider him as a streaming option this week.

Ryan Fitzpartick, QB, New York Jets

Fitzy has been solid so far this season. He isn’t a huge fantasy scorer, but he won’t kill you either. Averaging 15.75 points per game is a good fill in for your quarterback. This week against the Eagles I would love to be playing Fitzpatrick in as many leagues as I can. Hopefully Eric Decker can get back on the field this week to give Fitzpatrick some extra help. I love Fitzy this season as a good option to stream.

So this ends the start sit article for Week Three. I hope that it has been helpful in making your decisions a little more educated. Make sure to check out my injury report articles using thislink. You can follow me on twitter, and sign up to receive notices when I post a new article at the top of this page. Thank you for your time and reading what I have to say. Good luck in your leagues this week.

Trade Targets: CJ Anderson

Well we are about two weeks into the NFL season. As I sit writing this, we all are awaiting kickoff between the Giants and Redskins for week three. Some narratives have come true, some look false. The time has come to wade through these and find the diamonds in the rough that have just gotten off to a rough start.

Last season I wrote an article about Eddie Lacy after the first three weeks of the season. He faced off against three top five defenses to start his season, and was seen to be underperforming. But the reality was, those defenses he faced were good. It was a brutal start to the year. And if you found an owner willing to trade you Lacy, you got a great performance from him the rest of the way. The deal I made was trading Alshon Jeffery for Eddie Lacy straight up. Jeffery was my WR4, and I could afford the deal.

Image source: denverpost.com

So after two weeks of the season, who is a guy that we can take a look at buying low on? 

Who has a favorable schedule moving forward? When should we pounce? Let’s take a look at all these factors together now.

CJ Anderson, RB, Denver has been a major disappointment. I was in love with the narrative for the Denver offense this season. Aging quarterback, stud tight end gone, and new coach who wants to run the ball a lot, what’s not to love. Add to that a defense that can hold their opponents down and make the strategy work. It all sounds so great.

Then, reality sets in.

 Anderson hurts his toe in game one. Peyton looks terrible in the Kubiak offense. He can’t run and looks every bit of his age. The offensive line looks like they can’t block at all. Through two weeks of the season Anderson has 56 yards on 24 carries and five catches for 21 yards. Not good numbers. Is there any good news? Well in Week 1 they played Baltimore in a defensive brawl. Baltimore has been a tough defense against the run.  Kansas City in week two proved a tough match up for the Broncos all around. But in a tale of two halves the Broncos were able to move the ball later in the game, and CJ was the back on the field.

So what does the upcoming schedule hold for CJ and the Broncos? Well before the season I would have told you that the Broncos face a fairly tough start, but also have a Top 5 run schedule this year. Kansas City was an outlier based on their stats from last year, but the next opponent for the Broncos is the Lions, and without Deandre Levy and Ndamukong Suh plugging up the middle, the Lions have not been that strong against the run in their first two games.

After that game the schedule really opens up for the Broncos on the ground. The next seven games are against teams that were in the bottom half of yards allowed on the ground last season. The Patriots are the eighth game out after the Lions, and one of only two more Top 10 run defenses from last season. The Fantasy playoff run consists of games against the Raiders, Steelers, and Bengals for weeks 14-16.

I am recommending taking a shot at trading for CJ Anderson in your leagues. 

If you have a surplus of wide receivers on your bench, you might be able to give your fourth or fifth best wide receiver to a team that is likely in need of an infusion of points. If you are running back heavy, you might be able to move one of them for Anderson.

Basically I see the tide turning for Anderson. If the offensive line can gel, and Kubiak and Manning can find a common ground to run an offense that can succeed, Anderson can truly be a diamond in the rough for your fantasy team. Take a run at his owner and see what you can make happen. Bargain shopping in week 2 can make you a champion.

Waiver Wire For Week 3:

The first two weeks of the NFL season have been brutal to the ranks of Fantasy Football. Dez Bryant, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Eddie Lacy, Eric Decker, the list goes on. So many of your Fantasy relevant players have gotten hurt. So what are you to do? Hit the wire. Fill those rosters with players that might help you win. Let's find some of those guys together.



It's all about the Benjamins

Travis Benjamin, WR, Cleveland has had a pretty good start to the season scoring 4 times in the first two weeks. Two long receiving touchdowns on Sunday and a punt return  74 yards for a score. Benjamin is a stash and wait kind of player for me. I find him much more desirable in leagues that give points for return yardage. His value may be tied to the ability of Johnny Manziel keeping the starting job. I am not ready to start him, but I could see him on my roster if I need a big upside player.

Starks me up

James Starks, RB, Green Bay has the chance this week to take over the running load in the Green Bay offense. With Eddie Lacy banged up with an ankle injury in week two, Starks came on strong to help the Packers take down the Seahawks. If Lacy remains out his week, Starks steps right into the job with a high ability to succeed.

Jonesin'

Matt Jones, RB, Washington has proven his ability in the Washington run game. Jones had 19 carries for 123 yards and two scores, plus three catches for 23 yards. Jones has wedged his way into the run game for Washington, and I am not expecting that to change anytime soon. Washington will be perfectly happy to have an effective tandem at running back and try to win with defense and clock control. Grab some Matt Jones.

What you Snead

Willie Snead, WR, New Orleans had a lot of buzz during the preseason. Snead hit last week for the Saints, Willie caught four passes for 44 yards and a score in week two. In week one Snead only had one catch for 63 yards, so he may be inconsistent. But the New Orleans offense must try something new. At 0-2 and now possibly without Drew Brees this week, something has to change in the Saints offense. Snead just might be the benefactor of this.

Mr. Rodgers neighborhood

Richard Rodgers, TE, Green Bay was my secret weapon in some of my leagues this season. Once Jordy Nelson went down with a torn ACL, the Packers were going to need some help in the red zone. The reason he was my secret weapon? Well I crunched the numbers from last year and found that Green Bay had the third best schedule for points allowed to tight ends. The only issue was they don't usually use a tight end. Well, Nelson out helped him with that. Last week Rodgers caught both a touchdown pass, and a two point conversion en route to a 3-23-1 night. Not a huge evening, but he was also targeted again for a deep pass and another time in the end zone. So now my secret is out, and you can benefit.

Neon Dion

Dion Lewis, RB, New England has been a monster the first two games of the season. Through the first two weeks of the season Lewis has 22 rushes for 109 yards and a score, and has 10 catches for 149 yards. The bad news is that he has a fumbling issue. The good news, he has still gotten in the game. As hard as it is to trust a Patriots running back, he hasn't come off the field after the fumbles, and Brady has talked him up. If he is still available in your leagues, add him to your roster.

Quarterbacks to stream Week 3

Ryan Fitzpatrick plays at home against the defensively hapless Eagles.
Marcus Mariota plays at home against the Colts. Indy is down corners on defense, and if they don't get them back it could be a great day for Mariota.
Nick Foles plays at home against the Steelers. Not sure who he is throwing to, but the Steelers won't stop it.

Defenses to stream Week 3

Cincinnati Bengals head into Baltimore. The Baltimore offense is no great shakes this year, and I wouldn't expect a ton from them.
Cleveland Browns host the Oakland Raiders. Cleveland has decent corner play and a front line that should start to gel soon. The Raiders just aren't good, yet. They seem to be heading in the right direction, but have a ways to go.

Week Two Start Sit

Well it has been a slow few weeks as real life has caught up with me. Lots of busy things happening. Drafts were amazing. Had a great time, and have some great teams. I hope the same has befallen you as well. So now we have a full week in the bank. It’s time to look at the best plays and worst plays we find this week. So let’s take a look at this week’s start/sit.

Start

John Brown, WR, Arizona is facing his second good match up in a row. After performing fairly well in Week One, with four catches on seven targets for 46 yards and a touchdown, Brown is once again a guy I am sliding into my flex positions this week.  Facing the Chicago Bears in Week Two, Brown finds a favorable situation ahead. The Bears gave up three touchdowns through the air last week. In the 2014 season the Bears were 30^th in passing yards allowed for the season. I expect the issues with the Bears passing defense to continue this week. Get Brown in your lineup.

Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona is leading the attack again this week for the Cardinals. Palmer had a superb opening game to the season, throwing for 307 yards and 3 scores. Palmer is a good enough quarterback to take advantage of a defense that is weak in the passing game. Expect him to do more of the same this week. If you are lucky and planned the start of your season, you can stack Palmer and Brown this week and double your pleasure. Palmer is a great start for you this week.

Bishop Sankey, RB, Tennessee is a surprise addition to this list. I never thought I'd say that after the 2014 season, and the tumultuous offseason at the running back position in Tennessee. Sankey had a fantastic performance in the new and seemingly improved offense of the Titans. Rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota was fantastic in his NFL debut last week, and Sankey was also impressive. This week Sankey and the Titans will face off against the hapless Cleveland Browns. Last season the Browns gave up the most yards per game on the ground. The Browns picked up right where they left off allowing 154 yards in their first game of the season. If you see Sankey hanging out on your waiver wire and are in need of a running back this week, snatch him up and get him in your lineup.

Steve Smith Sr, WR, Baltimore squares off against the not improved defense of the Oakland raiders. The Ravens faced the Broncos in a clash of good defensive units last week. This week, the Ravens offense will have a much better time of it. The Raiders gave up 270 yards and 2 passing touchdowns last week to the Cincinnati Bengals. This bodes well for the likes of Smith Sr. Look for him to atone for dropping a touchdown last week. Get Smith Sr. in your lineups.

Eric Decker, WR, New York Jets is a great second receiver for an NFL team. The good news about that is he will likely not get the top corner coverage a lot this year now that the Jets have a number one guy. This week the Jets face the sub-par defense of the Indianapolis Colts. The colts didn’t give up a huge amount of passing yards in the first week of the season, but they did give up a long score to Percy Harvin. Expect that the top corner, Vontae Davis, will be on Brandon Marshall. This leads me to believe that Decker is primed to have himself a solid game. Start him if you got him.

Sit

LeGarrette Blount, RB, New England Patriots was suspended for the first week of the season so we haven’t seen him on the field yet in regular season action. His first game back is against the stout defense of the Buffalo Bills. The narrative being bounced around twitter and the podcast circuit is that the Patriots will attack the Bills defense with short passing. This seems to make sense with some of the personnel the Pats feature. If this is in fact what Bill Belichick does with his game plan, this doesn’t play well for Blount. Blount is not the best pass catching back the pats have. Along with the possible bad game plan for Blount, Buffalo is very good against the run. The Bills allowed just over 100 yards on the ground per game last season, and in their first game of this season they held the Colts to 64 rushing yards. I’m sitting Blount this week.

Andre Johnson, WR, Indianapolis Colts looked like an old, washed up man last week against the Bills. This week assuming he gets the top corner his opponent has if TY Hilton is out, we will welcome Johnson to Revis Island. I can’t imagine any situation where Revis has two functioning legs and can’t shut down Johnson. The best hope for him is if Donte Moncrief torches the Jets on a few plays and they shift the coverage to Moncrief instead. But this assumes that Johnson is ready for the challenge and steps up to it. I am not looking to take that chance myself and would sit Andre Johnson this week.

Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders had a decent game for one where his team was never even close to competitive. The good news is he got seven catches in the game last week. This week Murray and the Raiders face the stiff Baltimore Ravens defense. Baltimore only gave up 69 yards rushing last week against the Broncos. This might seem like it is due to the mess that has been the Broncos offensive line, but they were stout last year as well. In the 2014 campaign the Ravens only allowed 88 yards rushing per game and eight touchdowns on the season. This makes me want to put Murray on my bench this week.

TJ Yeldon, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars had 51 rushing yards in his first NFL start. The positives about this are that he got four yards per carry, and that he also caught three passes. This was a game against Carolina, a usually strong defense, but they were missing Star Lotulelei in the middle of that defensive line. This week doesn’t get any easier than last week, squaring off against the Miami Dolphins and their scary defense. The Dolphins did give up a lot of yards in game one of the season, but that was against an actually decent run blocking line of Washington. The Jags line is not that good. I don’t see good things for Yeldon this week and am sitting him in the leagues I own him in.

Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis Colts squares off against the New York Jets this week. Another team with a strong defensive line, the Jets only allowed 104 yards last week to the Browns, but 58 of those yards were given up to the quarterbacks of the browns. That means that the running backs only gained 46 yards. Gore looked old, and actually left the game with cramps. Gore had 8 carries for 31 yards and 2 catches last week. I am not feeling too good about his chances this week and would bench him for a better option.

It feels good to be back. The first week of the season was amazing. Happy to bring you some advice and insights into who to start and sit in your leagues. Check back for more articles in the near future and read some of my other work at socalledfantasyexperts.com and fakepigskin.com. Thanks for reading and good luck in week two!

Auction Values and Strategy

Iconic rock band Van Halen said it best with the classic rock track "Everybody Wants Some" back in 1980. Granted some of you may not have be born yet, so I may be carbon dating myself for this purpose. If you've ever heard the chorus to the relatively ancient tune, after the title line is sung it's followed by David Lee Roth squealing "I want some too!"

 

Image source: newyork.cbslocal.com

When it comes to fantasy football auctions, team managers want value. To which Roth asks, "Baby how 'bout you?"

The song has become a soundtrack for me every fantasy football draft season, and I would rather have it turn out my way than the 80's movie in which it's featured, Better Off Dead. Most consider the auction draft intimidating, and my first season playing fantasy football I agreed. I was invited to play with some former high school buddies that were looking to replace a team manager that had gotten fed up with league politics and quit. Not knowing what I was in for, I proceeded to overpay for players and barely filled out a competitive roster by the time auction was finished. My season was tanked by the choice of over bidding on an oft injured Rashard Mendenhall, then blowing all of my free agent budget on Isaac Redman and a young Jonathan Dwyer; all of whom got injured at some point. It stung so much that I forsook auction drafts altogether for years, also most leagues I was in weren't doing them, until last year.

In this article I'll cover some auction strategy and a few players that could be value plays and help you win in your leagues this season. In any draft, you're not going to enjoy setting your roster every week if you have guys that you don't enjoy rooting for, so it's important to budget your loot accordingly to allow you to fill positions with the studs that you want. A way to do this is to tier your player rankings at each position. Most of you should already be doing this for your snake drafts, the difference being placing dollar amounts on guys instead of their average draft position.

I recommend using an auction value calculator,

then raising the dollar amounts for the players you really want from there, but try to keep it within reason. Obviously spending over a quarter of your budget on one guy means you are going to have to count on some major bargains in the latter part of the auction. Use the cheat sheet as a guideline, keeping in mind other league mates may have the same prices on players that you do, and won't stop bidding until someone gives up. Know when to concede for the greater good of your team, a true squad goal.

Player nomination strategies

A classic auction strategy is to nominate the high ranking players that you don't like as much as everyone else in your league. You increase your odds for getting players by ultimately reducing the number of owners that can bid, because they're either filled at the position or they're low on dough. I've been in draft rooms where owners don't spend a dollar for the first five or so player nominations, while I was throwing loot like it was a strip club. None of that this season. That's what the mocks were for.                                                                                                                                                  

Jeremy Hill went for $1 in one of my leagues last year and was almost the last player nominated, and I of course had spent $25 on Giovanni Bernard. The tip here is to keep your eyes peeled for late nominated players with upside. In my experience these players are handcuff running backs, but can come from any position, including individual defensive players, IDP. There is also a lot of value to be had from players who come into the season injured.

Three value picks for 2015

  

Eli Manning $6 - Absolutely love the bad comedian with cable this year. McAdoo's offense led to a career high in completion percentage last year, and has most of his weapons back. Yes, Reuben Randle included. A favorable schedule make him hard to pass up.

Marvin Jones $1- Back and healthy, Jones could be a major steal if he continues his current progression throughout camp and the preseason.

Victor Cruz $3 - How about a comeback from one of the worst injuries you can possibly have? He could be the first. I believe in him.

Thanks for reading and I hope this gives some insight for your fantasy endeavors. Oh yeah, I didn't get too upset that I missed out on handcuffing Giovanni Bernard with Jeremy Hill. I already had Antonio Brown and some guy at the end of my bench I paid $1 for...Odell Beckham Jr.

This article was written by Ben Walker. Find Ben on Twitter @mrpumamc

Should You Draft Eddie Royal And Julian Edelman

Image source: seattlepi.com

This time of year is an odd one. There are games, but they mean nothing. Over the past few seasons it seems that the preseason has less meaning than it has in the past. Most of the game action features the starters for a bit, then mostly the backups and guys that are trying to make the team playing their faces off. But this year I have noticed a trend that I haven't in the past. Some teams are sitting many of their most important players in a variety of situations. Some have been held out altogether so far, and some have gotten to that point. So how do you proceed with your drafting when you don't know what's going on? Let's try to find out together.

Two players that can have some serious implications for your PPR Fantasy teams are Eddie Royal and Julian Edelman. Both of these players are in positive expectation situations this season. Edleman has been a great PPR receiver for a few years now. Royal has had flashes, but is primed to see more balls in his direction this season than last. Both of these guys are listed as out with injuries, possibly for the rest of the preseason. So should you draft them? Maybe.

One point of consideration is the fact that both of these guys play for teams that have some apparent serious injury concerns at the wide receiver position. Kevin White is out for a large portion of the season, if not all. Alshon Jeffery has an ankle injury. Brandon LaFell is apparently just getting out of a walking boot. The Patriots situation is so dire, they just signed a 37 year old receiver, Reggie Wayne, to a decent money deal.

The Patriots are not known for being particularly forthcoming on their injury situations. There have been some rumors and tweets about what people have seen at their practices. Even the players don't say much. Edelman was asked about the extent and severity of his injury this week, and directed the reporters to talk to Head Coach Bill Belichick.

Image source: chicago.cbslocal.com

Similarly the Bears were coy with the extent of the injury to White earlier this year. They said he had shin splints right until the time at which White had surgery on his stress fractures in his shin bone. So Bears Coach John Fox is not always the most trustworthy of injury consultants. The word right now on Royal is that he is day to day.

My take on the situation is that we are watching two teams protecting two of their remaining healthy offensive assets from the rigors of meaningless games and contact. With already depleted resources, it seems the narrative of these injuries points to making sure that the offense has what top line players are left healthy to open the season.

Jonathan Stewart 2015 Outlook

Jonathan Stewart is entering his eighth season in the NFL in 2015. Spending most of his career thus far sharing a backfield with DeAngelo Williams has really hurt Stewart’s ability to score for Fantasy. Along with the crowded backfield, injuries have sidelined Stewart for 22 games in his career. So why would you want to draft a guy that has this history? Let’s take a look at what lies ahead for him this season.

Image source: tireball.com

Stewart hasn’t been as consistent as you might like to see from a running back. Over his last three seasons Stewart has only scored a quality game in nine of 28 games according to Bob Lung’s consistency guide. Looking at the breakdowns by defense level, Stewart is consistently inconsistent. The best category for consistency broken down by defense for Stewart is at home against good defenses, scoring two of four quality games. Taking into account all other defensive rankings together you get an average of 29% quality games. This does not bode well for the chances for Stewart. Most of this second category of quality games was against the bad and middle of the road defenses that should allow for more scoring to a running back.

Taking a look at the schedule for the Carolina Panthers this season has a bit of good news to it. The Panthers will be facing the second best schedule of run defenses from 2014 rankings. The average rank of the run defenses they will face this season is 19.68. The Panthers will have the luxury of only facing off against three Top 10 run defenses from a season ago. The season opens with a soft landing at Jacksonville. The Texans in Week Two present a more difficult challenge. After that the following two games against the Saints and Bucs will be good match ups. Then a rough match up against the Seahawks leads to a cleaner finish to the season.

The playoff run for the Panthers looks pretty good. Week 14 sees the Falcons coming to town. Week 15 sees Carolina traveling to the already banged up Giants. Week 16 sees the Panthers playing the Falcons for the second time in three weeks. Even though you can expect the Falcons to play tougher than last season under new coach Dan Quinn, they were the 21^st ranked run defense last year, and huge overnight change is unlikely. Finally if you play through week 17, the Buccaneers and their 19^th ranked pass defense last season come to Carolina.

Stewart has an ADP that puts him at the end of the fourth round overall. Going at 47^th, his price puts him in the RB2 or RB3 category. In his same area of the ADP you can find players that I would both be more comfortable with, and some that I would be less comfortable with. Andre Ellington is at 49^th in ADP right behind Stewart. I would probably take Ellington over Stewart myself. On the flip side of that coin, Todd Gurley is going at the 46^th pick in ADP, and I would rather have both Stewart and Ellington over Gurley in a redraft league. If you are picking in this area there are a few other players for positions other than running back that I would take over Stewart here.

Another consideration that you must have is the fact that Stewart will have a hard time getting red zone touches. Not only is Cam Newton a touchdown vulture up close, but the Panthers have a history of using Mike Tolbert when they get in close. On top of those two taking away red zone touches, the Panthers have taken on the basketball team mentality for their wide receivers. Now having two very tall receivers, and Greg Olsen who is also tall, the red zone is a crowded place for Carolina.

One thing to note for sure is that if you take Jonathan Stewart for your 2015 Fantasy team, you need to grab Cameron Artis-Payne as a backup. With Stewart being the poster child for getting injured over his career, his back up is an important asset. The schedule is so good that the next man up might have a shot at relevance as well.

Earlier this offseason I was all aboard the Stewart train. As we get closer to the season, and I take a closer look at both where his ADP is settling in at, and his overall situation, I have a hard time finding myself wanting to take Stewart on my team this season. If available I would rather take another running back or wide out at the same spot and wait for a Giovanni Bernard type in round five.

Mocking the first overall pick in a 12 team PPR draft

The first overall pick has been something that I have an amazingly large amount of experience with getting in my randomly selected fantasy drafts. I get it a lot. I hate it. I hate having one pick in the first 23. The stress and pressure of who to take, and not wanting to pick the guy who is going to bust, there's always one, is not something I want to deal with. But someone has to have the top pick. So let's take a look at the scenario I used from my mock draft on the fantasypros.com mock draft simulator.

I have put a fair amount of time into my strategy of who I would take at number one.

I looked at the four usual suspects and many aspects of their pros and cons in an article I wrote on socalledfantasyexperts.com. As I discussed in that article, the LeVeon Bell suspension makes me not want to take him. I don’t like the situation for Jamaal Charles, and Eddie Lacy has a heck of a tough schedule in my opinion this season. So this left me at Adrian Peterson. So for the purposes of this mock draft I took Peterson to line up with my pick.

Now since then I have had a monumental shift in my thought process on my favorite back this year. I am willing to take a gamble on a guy that I believe has all of the things I value for a top running back. With the fifth easiest schedule of run defenses from last year, a much tougher pass defense schedule, a new regime that likes to run and uses a bell cow running back, I am willing to gamble on CJ Anderson to be the top running back for the 2015 season. Give me the first pick in a real draft, or redoing this mock, and I take him every time.

So now that I’m off my soapbox, we can resume a look at this mock draft I did. At pick 24 there is surprisingly no quarterbacks off the board. The best running backs available are Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, and Andre Ellington. The best wide receivers available are Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, TY Hilton, and Brandin Cooks. Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce are both still available, but this is way too early for me for them. I have pretty much fallen in love with Mike Evans this year.

His situation is great.

He has a quarterback that is willing to toss the ball up. He is very tall. His schedule is extremely favorable for passing. And last but not least, he was amazing with no talent at the quarterback position last year. I can’t think of a guy I want more on this board, so Evans is my guy.

Pick 25 in this mock is the spot that is a little weird for me.

I don’t hate taking Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck, I prefer Luck. If you like Graham and want him, this is your spot, he won’t be available at the next pick. It is likely that the top 20 running backs and receivers will be picked clean the next time through, so you need to make your pick here based on that info. I am a believer that your second running back can be cobbled together from round four, five, or six picks. So we already have a top running back and a top receiver on our roster. Because this is a PPR league I want to take a good volume receiver. I like Brandin Cooks of the receivers left on the board. Cooks was on pace for a high volume last year, and this year there are more targets to spread around from missing components from last season.

At the end of the fourth round we find that

much to our good fortune Alfred Morris and Latavius Murray have fallen to us. There is only one Top 20 wide receiver left on the board in Keenan Allen. Peyton Manning is the best quarterback left, as Luck, Rodgers, and Russell Wilson are all off the board. Drew Brees is also available in this spot. I like to stack a quarterback and a receiver, and if we didn’t need some running backs for this team I would probably take one of the quarterbacks, and lean toward Brees. But alas, we have found that two of the Top 20 running backs have fallen to us, so it makes our 48^th and 49^th overall picks pretty simple ones. Alfred and Latavius, welcome aboard.

When the end of the sixth round finds us,

there are now seven quarterbacks off the board. Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, and Ryan Tannehill are the best four on the board. Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen are gone. The best tight end left is Martellus Bennett. At running back LeGarrette Blount has found his way to this spot in the draft. He is joined by Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen, and Joique Bell. At wide receiver we find Eric Decker, Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Mike Wallace on the board.

I had a very hard time making a decision at this spot.

I sat with my finger over the mouse ready to click draft on Blount, but I just couldn’t do it. I hate having Patriots running backs on my team. I decided to go ahead and select Eric Decker, who I wrote about as a late round sleeper. Decker is a target of mine in middle rounds, and oddly this week I think his stock rose with Geno Smith being out and Ryan Fitzpatrick taking over as the starter.

With the 73^rd pick I decided to take a quarterback.

Of the players left I have two players to pick from. Either I am taking Matt Ryan, or I am taking Eli Manning. I like both of these players for the 2015 season, in fact writingabout Eli earlier this off season. The schedules for both teams are good for passing, they won’t face the best of passing defenses from last year. For me it comes down to preference and the rest of the situation. The Falcons have two proven wide receivers. Julio Jones and Roddy White are both players I wrote about this season. They have a history of being great players. The Giants have Odell Beckham Jr. who was phenomenal last year, but is a second year guy and not proven yet. Along with Odell we have Victor Cruz who is returning from a torn patellar tendon. This is not an easy injury to return from, and even with all reports pointing to good things, nobody knows how Cruz will play this year. When you consider these factors, Matt Ryan is my guy.

During round seven there was a run on tight ends.

In round eight a run on running backs goes down. I find the same wide receivers that were available previously and some tight ends I am not interested in at this spot in the draft. Time for the trick play that I have been hearing about on many podcasts and reading about on twitter a lot. Arian Foster is sitting there. At the end of round eight you should already have a good slate of starters. Our team here is only missing a tight end, but with the top 11 off the board, we aren’t in a rush anymore. So Foster is the perfect lottery ticket at the end of the eighth. With incomplete information about his injury and the timeline currently, Foster might find himself back by the second week of the season. If you get him at any point near then for the rest of the season, you can assume you should be the gold standard of your league.

The next pick is a little more difficult for me.

I only have three wide receivers on my squad so far. I am usually a fan of loading up on receivers, but there is still some great running back talent on the board. Isaiah Crowell is on the board, and if he is the guy who is starting in Cleveland, it’s a great spot for him. They are a bad team, which has a great offensive line, and will win by running and playing defense. Devonta Freeman is still on the board. If he can get healthy and stay that way, he has the chance to be the starting back in Atlanta. Reggie Bush is on the board, and as I wrote here, Bush can be a great value play in PPR leagues. I decided to take Crowell here, gambling that he is eventually going to win this job. I would be okay with any of these backs, but would take them in the following order: Crowell, Freeman, Bush as it stands today. With all of the running back talent I have, if one of the later round guys I drafted hits, or if Foster comes back quickly, I could trade a running back to upgrade my wide receiver corps.

As we hit the end of Round 10, we find a lot of wide receivers on the board.

Since our last pick only one came off the board. We need a receiver and a tight end. The running backs on the board don’t make me want to draft them, especially since this team is stocked well. Kyle Rudolph is going to be our guy here. Minnesota faces the fourth best schedule for tight ends based on Fantasy points allowed to tight ends. With Teddy Bridgewater in his second year, and performing well at the end of last season, if Rudolph can stay healthy, he is set up well for this season.

Our next pick needs to be a wide receiver. We lack depth there and need to find a value guy with a high ceiling. I want to take a guy that has a lot of upside. The receivers available are Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson, Marques Colston, and Nelson Agholor. I decided to take Agholor here. If he is ready to play this season, the volume he will see in the Philadelphia offense will make him a great value for the 11^th round.

We have now found the point in the draft where I am snatching up my value wide receivers.

I find Pierre Garcon sitting there at the end of round 12. As I wrote in my late round PPR values article, I love Garcon this year. If Robert Griffin III can get it together this year, I think Garcon can be a huge value. If you have been reading the rest of my mock draft articles, the 11 pick, and the 12 pick, you will notice that I like to take Garcon late. I’m hitching my wagon to him this year.

I grab John Brown with my pick at the start of Round 13. I like Brown over Floyd currently seeing as he didn’t just have surgery to repair a compound dislocation. I like to err on the side of the guy who has skills and didn’t just have hand surgery.

I take Stephen Gostkowski and the Ravens defense in rounds 14 and round 15. I took the top kicker and the defenses were decimated by the time I made my pick. I would likely stream a defense for the year based on the matchups.

So my strategy from the one hole was different than it was from the late first round spots. I was able to amass a huge amount of starting running back talent, and still have a few great wide receivers. I feel that this team ended up pretty balanced, and has the chance to have great expendable parts to possibly use to trade up to improve some positions later.

Mocking the 12 pick in a 12 team PPR league

My favorite spots to draft in are the late first round picks. The sandwich picks, as they are sometimes called, allow you to both close and open a round. You get to take a look at what your opponents have and need. Then you get to take two players that fit either your needs or desires. In the front end of the draft, you get two of the top 13 players in a 12 team league. So let’s take a look at the who’s and why’s of my mock draft from pick 12. Note that this draft was done prior to the injury to Arian Foster.

So at the end of the first round the top six running backs have come off the board.

Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are also gone. I am a big proponent this season of taking a running back in round one as long as you get one of the top tier running backs. In this particular draft I had taken Arian Foster, but as I wrote on socalledfantasyexperts.com, I would now substitute that pick with CJ Anderson. Anderson is the end of my first tier of running backs, and has a big opportunity in front of him.

With my second pick in this sandwich, I look to Julio Jones.

As I wrote about him awhile back, I absolutely love Jones this year. The schedule for Atlanta is primed for him to have a huge season. The team will likely have a better defense, but won’t likely be a big jump this year. This leads me to thinking that they will still be involved in shootouts. Shootouts are a great thing for a player like Jones. So now after my second pick I have a top level running back, and the wide receiver I like the most for 2015.

When my pick comes up at the end of round three I am now thinking about taking another top level wide receiver and maybe a good second running back. After my fourth round pick in that scenario, I would already have a solid core of starters that I will be likely to plug and play for the whole season. This strategy leaves you in a good situation to fill in the rest of your starters, or add bench depth in case of injuries or for bye weeks.

So at the end of round three my pick wend Mark Ingram.

Ingram is in a good situation. He is the definite running downs back. His team traded away more than one receiving option, and added a Pro Bowl run blocking center. This all bodes well for the lead back in the New Orleans offense. This will fill out my starting running backs for the greater part of the season, barring injury.

My fourth round pick is a guy that I find myself drafting a lot

at the late third and early fourth round slots. Oddly he is a teammate of my third round pick. Brandin Cooks was the player I decided to snatch up with the first pick of the fourth. Cooks had an interesting ride last year. His usage was quizzical early in the season, and then with a slight shift to usage, he was on pace for monster rookie year numbers. Injury cut his rookie season short. It was obvious this offseason that there is a shift coming in the offense. The run is likely to be more important to the offense of the Saints, but they will still have to pass. The defense is not good. They will have a hard time stopping anyone. And that will lead to passing if they fail to control the clock and get a stop. Cooks in a PPR league should be a solid play, amassing a lot of catches, and possessing the skills to do great things with the ball. As my second wide receiver, I am a very happy man.

When the draft comes back to me again at pick 60 overall,

I find a great value still on the board at running back. Jonathan Stewart is hanging around. This is an unbelievable value. Stewart is a Top 20 running back, and he is sitting at pick 60. With DeAngelo Williams no longer clogging the backfield in Carolina, Stewart only needs to stay healthy to be a productive member of your team. There is no way that I could let Stewart pass at this spot, so welcome aboard.

The first pick of the sixth round is an interesting one.

There are a lot of choices left on the board that would fit well on this squad. Latavius Murray, TJ Yeldon are running backs on board. Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are still there. Wilson might be a great pick at 6.01, but I was waiting on a quarterback in this league. Travis Kelce is there, but I know I am not a believer in Alex Smith, so Kelce is out for me. I decided to take Yeldon in this spot. Reports out of Jags camp is that Yeldon has picked up the offense very quickly. He has been talked about as a three down back. This is something I am interested in taking a shot on. A new three down back in the league. Sign me up.

During the rest of the sixth and seventh rounds before my next pick comes up there is a run on quarterbacks. 

When my pick at 84 overall comes up

the best quarterback on the board is Eli Manning. I am still waiting on quarterback. I want to see what I get if I wait really late. The best available players left are Latavius, Todd Gurley, Joique Bell, Rashad Jennings, Eric Decker. I can’t pass up Latavius Murray at this point. I think Gurley is a decent selection, but just today as I am writing this article news hit that Gurley will likely miss the first few games. So Murray is a better choice here in my opinion. Last year he flashed moments of brilliance. Murray gives me four starting running backs to choose from week to week.

So all the previously listed players are still available. With a decent amount of depth at the running back position this team needs to add a wide receiver. Eric Decker is the best on the board at this point in the draft. I am bullish on Decker this year, as I wrote earlier this season. Decker has a good situation, and I honestly believe it got better with Ryan Fitzpartick as the quarterback this year. Decker is a good receiver, in a team that made some great moves this off season, and is headed in the right direction. Decker fills in some much needed depth at the wide out spot.

At the end of round 9, 108 overall

this team has needs at tight end, quarterback, and wide receiver depth. The best receivers available are Brandon LaFell, Steve Smith, Michael Floyd, Anquan Boldin, Mike Wallace. The best tight end on the board is Delanie Walker, but I am not a fan this season. The best quarterbacks available are Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady. I want to let quarterback go one more time and see what is left. This is after all a mock draft, the place to try things out.

With those facts in mind, I decided that I need to add some more wide receiver depth to this team. My favorite targets on this list are by far Anquan Boldin and Michael Floyd. Boldin is the best wide receiver in San Francisco, and the offseason action is pointing to a complete mess being what the team looks like this season. I find it likely they will be trailing a lot, leading to a lot of passing, hopefully to Boldin. Michael Floyd is a slight gamble. Having just had surgery for a compound dislocation, Floyd’s price is dropping. If his fingers are healed, and Carson Palmer can stay healthy this season, Floyd might be able to be a productive member of your fantasy roster this year. Expect a maximum effort from Floyd this year, as the size of his paycheck next year depends on it.

Coming back around in the 11^th round 

we find that LaFell, Wallace, and Smith are still on the board. Torrey Smith and Marques Colston and Kendall Wright are available as well. I am not a fan of any of those wide receivers this year except Colston. The only issue I have with Colston is that I already have Brandin Cooks. I am not usually in the market for two wide receivers from the same team so I will pass on Colston.

In the past round there was another run on quarterback and there isn’t much left at tight end. I deided to take one more wide receiver. That guy is Pierre Garcon. I love Garcon in the end of round 11.  As I wrote about him earlier, I believe that Garcon is set up for a good season. The schedule is great for Washington, and if Robert Griffin III can figure it out, Garcon was a PPR monster with him in his rookie season.

So with the first pick in round 12, I suppose it’s time to find my quarterback. 

I have tried this strategy a few times in mock drafts this year. I am generally pleased with the quarterbacks that are left behind. If you look at the points that separated Ben Roethlisberger, the fifth ranked quarterback on ESPN standard leagues, and the 17^th ranked quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, was a total of 61 points on the whole season. That is a difference of 3.8 points per game over the whole season. You will likely recoup those points with the added value you got from players you didn’t take earlier in the draft. And if my quarterback falters, I can just stream from the leftovers and likely be just fine.

With my 13^th and 14^th round picks I am getting a jump on the competition

and taking the top kicker and the defense that I want. There are obviously some defenses that are already off the board, but I am in love with the potential of the Jets defense this season. They already had a strong front on defense. Then they upgraded the secondary with one of the best shutdown corners and a solid counterpart on the other side. I love the Jets this season and want to get them in every draft I can.

For kicker, I like to get Gostkowski at the top of round 14. At this point I only need to add a tight end, and am going to stream that position. So I like to take the top kicker. Gostkowski is a good kicker year in and year out. If he isn’t available I favor either kickers that are indoors, or the kicker in Denver. Honestly most of the time I end up dropping my kickers anyways to make room to hold a waiver wire guy for a week.

With my last pick in this draft I selected Charles Clay. He signed a big contract this past offseason, and is likely to get some usage in the offense this season. Clay will be the outlet and often a hot route for the myriad of mess that is the quarterback situation in Buffalo. If I don’t like what action Clay is getting, I would probably stream a guy that is available on waivers.

So ends our look at the number 12 overall pick. I love these sandwich picks for the ability to take two players in a row. This allows you to look at what is available and what your opponents need in the next rounds and make an informed decision. Also you end up getting two of the top 13 picks, which is not a bad thing either. Check back for the next draft position, the first overall pick.

Mocking the 11 pick in a 12 team league

Mock drafting is a very important part of the preseason regimen that a Fantasy player should go through. I have already completed around 50 mock drafts this season. The process has been made much faster this season after I found the Mock Draft Simulator I wrote about here. Instead of taking an hour, the simulator takes the average draft positions rankings, and simulates a draft for you. You can pick various settings for the rosters and league size, making it a great tool for all kinds of leagues. An upgrade to the pro level on fantasy pros lets you draft against a higher level setting, making your draft game even better.

Image source: greeleytribune.com

Drafting from all the different positions in the draft helps you discover the players that will be available at your picks, and prepares you for your draft.

Knowing the likely rounds you need to take the players you are interested in allows you to put together a solid plan to draft the team you want.

For the first in this series I have decided to pick from the 11 spot. The league setting is a 12 team PPR with two wide receivers, two running backs, and a flex.

So let’s take a look at the mock draft from pick 11.

When my first round pick came up I had some choices. There were some great players still available. Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., Demaryius Thomas, Arian Foster, and CJ Anderson were all available. With only one player in between my first and second picks my selection process is skewed by the talent left at wide receiver. If I take a second tier high level running back there will still be at least one wide out that I would be happy to have on my team when my pick at 14 comes back to me. With only two running backs left that I am interested at this point in the draft, I would not be guaranteed one of them. So my selection was Foster. I wouldn’t fault you for taking Anderson, but as I wrote about Foster earlier this year, I like him a lot this season.

This was written before the injury to Foster in the preseason. That injury makes it imperative in my opinion that you would take Anderson at this spot. He is the best running back left and could be the end of a tier at the position. There will still be the same receivers behind this pick, but you have by far taken the best running back left.

As it turned out

the picks at 12 and 13 were Beckham and Jones, leaving me to take Demaryius Thomas at pick 14. This sets up the situation I am favoring this season in my leagues. In the past I have favored a zero running back approach to PPR leagues, but this year I am leaning more toward taking a running back if the right guy is available. In this draft I now have a great running back and an elite wide receiver to start my draft out. I know that when it gets back to me at the end of round three none of the elite wide receivers or running backs will be left.

When it does come my turn at pick 35

there were still some decent players available. For running backs Lamar Miller, Alfred Morris, Jonathan Stewart were all there to be selected. At wide receiver the available players were Brandin Cooks, Emmanuel Sanders, Kelvin Benjamin, and Julian Edelman. At this point in the draft quarterback can also be a consideration to me, and Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson were available. I am not a huge fan of Miller this year, Morris is not a great back in PPR formats because he doesn’t catch passes, and Stewart has a history of injury so I am not a huge fan of any of these players. If I didn’t already have Thomas as one of my receivers I might take Sanders, but I don’t want two receivers from the same team. With a lot of targets available in the New Orleans offense and a belief that Cooks will be getting his fair share of them, I selected him. Edelman would be a solid choice in a PPR format, but the possibility of Tom Brady missing four games sours me on him at this spot in the draft.

The round four pick, 38 overall left me in a similar spot. I am confident that a quarterback that can touch the elite level will not be around at the end of round five. I have two great wide receivers already so taking a guy I am not sure about in Edelman, and a guy who is unlikely to have the same level of targets and has drop issues in Benjamin is not on my radar. So I decide to do something I don’t usually do and take Peyton. This allows me to stack my elite wide receiver and his quarterback. As I wrote here, I like to stack an elite target and the guy throwing him the ball when it is possible. This satisfies my desire there.

By the time my pick in round five comes around,

59 overall, all of the Top 20 running backs and wide receivers were off the board. Russell Wilson has fallen to this spot, a slight miscalculation on my part, but I’m still happy with Peyton. The best available players on the board at running back are Giovanni Bernard, Carlos Hyde, Latavius Murray, and TJ Yeldon. Travis Kelce and Greg Olson are both available at tight end, but I am not a fan of early tight ends. Yeldon is my pick here. I am gambling on a rookie, but he is a rookie that has the job pretty well locked up. I have recently read some good reports on Yeldon and how well he has picked up the offense. If he can lock down pass blocking, he has a chance to be a three down back.

For my pick at 62 overall Carlos Hyde and Travis Kelce have now come off the board. Latavius Murray and Giovanni Bernard are still available at running back. I am not ready to go with another gamble on a guy who is unproven at running back and is on a team that will likely be trailing a lot. With Roy Helu on the roster, the Raiders have a pass catching back not named Latavius. I am still not a fan of Bernard at this spot so I switch up my thinking a bit. Greg Olson is the fourth ranked tight end on the blended rankings, and since I already have a fairly well rounded setup of starters, I decided to take Olson at this spot. My belief is that in later rounds I can find a few guys to platoon at my flex spot, but I now have a lineup that I am willing to run out every week of the season and take my chances with.

Between rounds six and seven a quarterback run position happens.

This is important to note because this is a likely spot that if you don’t have a quarterback, it’s time to get your man. Since I already do, that allows players to fall to me that were available previously. When my pick at 83 overall comes up, Giovanni Bernard is still on the board. Even though I am not a fan of him this season, as I wrote earlier, every player will have a place in a draft where the value is better than the pick. Bernard will be a great flex player in a PPR league, so he is my pick at 83.

When it comes back around in the eighth round at pick 86 overall there are still some decent values on the board. Rashad Jennings, Joique Bell, LeGarrette Blount are the best running backs on the board. Eric Decker and Larry Fitzgerald are the top receivers left for the taking. Seeing as I have a rookie and a guy I don’t believe in this year on my squad already, I decide to take Joique bell to bolster my running back depth. I don’t like to take Patriots backs since you never know what they are going to do, and Jennings has a hard time staying healthy, so Joique is my guy.

A stoke of good fortune finds me when it comes back to me at 107 and 110.

We find that both Decker and Fitzgerald have fallen to me. These are guys that in the later rounds I am a fan of getting on my teams. I don’t believe in Geno Smith as an NFL quarterback. I think that at some point this season he will be on the bench and Ryan Fitzpatrick gives Decker a lot of opportunity. Fitzpatrick is a decent NFL quarterback with the ability to run a good offense. He is not a top level quarterback, but he is a veteran who knows what he is doing. Fitzgerald is a bit more of a flier than I think Decker is. But in the 10^th round he is a good value. If Carson Palmer can stay healthy this season, Fitzgerald should have better numbers than he did with the menagerie of terrible quarterbacks the Cardinals had last year. As my fourth wide out I could do worse.

When my pick comes up in round 11,

131 overall, I found a lot of late round values at the wide receiver spot. Brandon LaFell, Steve Smith, Anquon Boldin, Pierre Garcon, Torrey Smith, and Marques Colston are available. Not much left in the running back bin, so I am now rolling with what I have at running back and am taking the receivers due to their value this late in the draft. As I wrote previously about Boldin, I like him as a late round guy this season.

Pick 134 in the 12^th round has me looking at two guys. Pierre Garcon and Marques Colston are my favorite picks left on the board. I love both of these guys in the 12^th round this year. I wrote about Garcon in my late round ppr values article this week. I see him as a player with big potential to bounce back this season if he can get some consistent play from the quarterback position. I like Colston late this year too for the same reasons I like Cooks. But therein lies the problem. Having Cooks already on my team makes me not want to draft Colston. If Cooks isn’t already on my roster I would err on the side of the better quarterback situation and snatch up Colston. So Garcon is my guy.

At pick 155 overall in round 13 I pull a fast one.

I sneak in and take the defense I am targeting this year. The Jets are ranked 11^th this season by the fantasy pros consensus rankings. To me this is a huge undervaluing of their defense. They have a great front line. Yes it would be better if Sheldon Richardson didn’t keep getting himself in trouble, but they will still have a solid front four. The glaring hole they had last year was at cornerback, and they addressed that in a big way this season. Adding Darrell Revis and Antonio Cromartie to their defensive backfield will bolster their defense and will likely decrease their points allowed, while increasing their turnovers forced. I don’t want to miss out on them, so I take them a little earlier than most would draft a D/ST.

At pick 158 overall, the second in the 14^th round I decide to take the top ranked kicker as none of them are off the board yet. This allows me to have the best kicker over the past few years, and locks me in to a kicker I will be happy to run out there for the entire season. I can snipe the top guy and know that most of the other teams are only taking defense and kickers for the rest of the draft, so I can get most of the skill position players that are left on the board with my final pick. You can feel free to take a kicker based on any factor you see fit. Some like a kicker that plays indoors, some like the Denver kicker to add that distance from their thin air. I usually go with Stephen Gostkowski in this position. He’s good. He’s consistent. He’s my pick in round 14.

With my last pick, 179 overall, at the end of the 15^th round it is time for a flier.

The best available players on the board are Kendall Wright, John Brown, Larry Donnell, Percy Harvin, Reuben Randle, Kenny Stills, Charles Clay, and Devante Parker. With the Justin Hunter situation in Tennessee probably keeping him out, you can’t really stab people, I decided to take Wright. He is the highest ranked, has the best situation, and plays for a bad team that is likely to throw a lot this year. I could also take Davante Parker in this spot, but I think he will be available a few weeks down the line on waivers when his situation becomes clearer. By that time you might be able to easily discard one or more of your current roster to make room for him as he rounds into playing shape.

A feature I like about the mock draft simulator is that it will give you a rating for your starters, bench, and overall team. My starters were the top ranked in the league for this draft. My bench was only the fifth best according to their metrics, but I would not be planning to use my bench a lot. I also have a fair amount of receivers that I believe have a good chance for resurgent production this year if the chips can fall right for them. I have great wide receiver depth on this team, and if one or two of them can hit, I might have some good trade chips for upgrading at another spot in my lineup.

So we reach the end of the first installment of this look at mock drafting. I hope this article has served to help you in your planning and preparation for your drafts this season. Look for my articles on other draft pick spots in the near future.