Trade Targets: CJ Anderson

Well we are about two weeks into the NFL season. As I sit writing this, we all are awaiting kickoff between the Giants and Redskins for week three. Some narratives have come true, some look false. The time has come to wade through these and find the diamonds in the rough that have just gotten off to a rough start.

Last season I wrote an article about Eddie Lacy after the first three weeks of the season. He faced off against three top five defenses to start his season, and was seen to be underperforming. But the reality was, those defenses he faced were good. It was a brutal start to the year. And if you found an owner willing to trade you Lacy, you got a great performance from him the rest of the way. The deal I made was trading Alshon Jeffery for Eddie Lacy straight up. Jeffery was my WR4, and I could afford the deal.

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So after two weeks of the season, who is a guy that we can take a look at buying low on? 

Who has a favorable schedule moving forward? When should we pounce? Let’s take a look at all these factors together now.

CJ Anderson, RB, Denver has been a major disappointment. I was in love with the narrative for the Denver offense this season. Aging quarterback, stud tight end gone, and new coach who wants to run the ball a lot, what’s not to love. Add to that a defense that can hold their opponents down and make the strategy work. It all sounds so great.

Then, reality sets in.

 Anderson hurts his toe in game one. Peyton looks terrible in the Kubiak offense. He can’t run and looks every bit of his age. The offensive line looks like they can’t block at all. Through two weeks of the season Anderson has 56 yards on 24 carries and five catches for 21 yards. Not good numbers. Is there any good news? Well in Week 1 they played Baltimore in a defensive brawl. Baltimore has been a tough defense against the run.  Kansas City in week two proved a tough match up for the Broncos all around. But in a tale of two halves the Broncos were able to move the ball later in the game, and CJ was the back on the field.

So what does the upcoming schedule hold for CJ and the Broncos? Well before the season I would have told you that the Broncos face a fairly tough start, but also have a Top 5 run schedule this year. Kansas City was an outlier based on their stats from last year, but the next opponent for the Broncos is the Lions, and without Deandre Levy and Ndamukong Suh plugging up the middle, the Lions have not been that strong against the run in their first two games.

After that game the schedule really opens up for the Broncos on the ground. The next seven games are against teams that were in the bottom half of yards allowed on the ground last season. The Patriots are the eighth game out after the Lions, and one of only two more Top 10 run defenses from last season. The Fantasy playoff run consists of games against the Raiders, Steelers, and Bengals for weeks 14-16.

I am recommending taking a shot at trading for CJ Anderson in your leagues. 

If you have a surplus of wide receivers on your bench, you might be able to give your fourth or fifth best wide receiver to a team that is likely in need of an infusion of points. If you are running back heavy, you might be able to move one of them for Anderson.

Basically I see the tide turning for Anderson. If the offensive line can gel, and Kubiak and Manning can find a common ground to run an offense that can succeed, Anderson can truly be a diamond in the rough for your fantasy team. Take a run at his owner and see what you can make happen. Bargain shopping in week 2 can make you a champion.

Is Hunting Season Open?

With a switch to quarterback Zach Mettenberger for the Tennessee Titans, is hunting season open? Big play wide receiver Justin Hunter may have a new found value for fantasy.

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Justin Hunter has had an up and down season so far for the Titans. From being made to wear a jersey in the preseason that read JAG, which stood for just a guy, in practice by coach Ken Whisenhunt, to sporadic production during the regular season. So far in the tumultuous 2014 campaign for the Titans there have been 2 starting quarterbacks, and this weekend they will add a third. There has been a lack of consistency for the offense, and Charlie Whitehurst was not going to be a guy to do a lot more than manage the Titans to closer losses than if they put a tackling dummy in at quarterback. It seems quite likely that there could be some better days ahead for Hunter and the Tennessee offense.

In college at Tennessee Hunter didn't do a whole lot in his first 2 seasons. As a freshman he was a big play guy, catching 16 passes for 415 yards, scoring on 7 of his receptions. His yards per catch was 25.9 during that season. As a sophomore in 2011 Hunter caught 17 balls in the 3 games he played before tearing his ACL. The big breakout season was in 2012 as a junior where hunter caught 73 passes for 1083 yards and 9 touchdowns. The per catch numbers came down, but the sustainability of 25.9 yards per catch was ultimately unrealistic.

Hunter has great size at 6'4 and great vertical and broad jump abilities, measured at 39 1/2 inch vertical and 136 inch broad jump, both best performances at the combine for wide receivers. His 33 1/4 inch arms and 9 3/8 inch hands give him the reach and hand size needed to be able to control the ball. The Titans took him in the second round (34th overall) of the 2013 draft. Paired along side of Kendall Wright and Nate Washington, with Delanie Walker at tight end, the Titans were set up to have a good receiving corps. The inconsistent play at quarterback, and inability of Jake Locker to stay healthy, has cost the Titans. Along with the inconsistent play from their signal callers, the Titans have struggled to put together a running game to take the pressure off of their quarterbacks.

Now enter Mettenberger. A 2 year starter at LSU, Mettenberger has shown a propensity to get the ball

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down the field. His senior season Mettenberger had an average yards per attempt of 10.4. That is a huge number for average yards per attempt. In recent history some now NFL quarterbacks had smaller numbers for down field attempts. Blake Bortles had an average yards per attempt of 9.4 his senior year. Andrew Luck had an average of 8.9 yards per attempt over his 3 seasons at Stanford. Robert Griffin III had 10.7 his senior year, but an average of 8.7 during his college career. And even Austin Davis, known as a bit of a gunslinger, had an average of 7.1 yards per attempt during his time at Southern Mississippi.

The desire and ability of Mettenberger to push the ball down the field is a great thing for the Titans offense overall. This will allow playmakers like Hunter and Wright to get down field and make plays, and in turn could take some pressure off the line of scrimmage for the run game. All of these factors could open up the entire offense for the Titans for the rest of this season. A fairly favorable schedule also awaits the Titans passing game for the remainder of the season. The rest of the year the Titans only play one top 10 passing defense in the Colts in week 17, and if your playoffs don't include that week you get to skip their worst match up. The whole rest of season average pass defense to be faced by the Titans is 20th. They face only 3 teams in the top half of pass defense rankings the rest of the year. If Mettenberger can lead this offense and pick up the speed of the game, the Titans may be able to finish on a high note.

If you are inclined to gamble a little on a season that is sitting at 3-4, you could do worse than to acquire Hunter, or even try to buy low on Kendall Wright, and maybe add Mettenberger to your team and put your wager on the Titans being able to take advantage of their good schedule for the rest of 2014.

WTHarvin

Late this afternoon Jay Glazer of Fox Sports reported that the Seahawks have traded Percy Harvin to the New York Jets. This trade was wholly unexpected, speaking as a Seattle resident and Hawks fan. Lets look at what this does to the receiver corps in Seattle.

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Paul Richardson is the immediate first thought to gain in value. Often compared to Harvin after the draft, Richardson is a speedster and could immediately fill in in the role carved out for Harvin in the Hawks offense. Graded out at the combine with a 4.4 40 yard dash, his strengths are stretching the field and play extension by coming back to the quarterback, all things that are improtant to the Seahawks offense. The big knock on Richardson is that he is small, and needs to put on weight to be effective in the NFL.

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Kevin Norwood is the other wide receiver taken in the 2014 draft by the Seahawks. Standing 6'2 and
weighing in at 198 at the combine, Norwood is a long receiver with a solid build. He is known to have good hands and has good skill at extending plays by coming back to quarterback. The big knocks on him were short arms and not creating separation or getting off of jams. So far this season Norwood has not made it on field on game day, but that may change with the subtraction of Harvin from the Seahawks Roster.

This trade obviously shifts the value of the Seahawks receivers for fantasy. I am not sure that it changes much as it is for Doug Baldwin or Jermaine Kearse. In my opinion if you were to make a speculative addition in the wake of this trade it would be best spent on Richardson as of now, but this weekends game against the St. Louis Rams will likely shed more light on the situation. Just in case, I recommend getting out in front of it and jettisoning a deep bench player to grab Richardson and hope you hit the lottery.

Good luck this week!

Trade Target: AJ Green

AJ Green has been nursing a toe injury this season. This culminated in him leaving practice on Wednesday on a cart, and seeing two specialists. For enterprising fantasy owners, the time to pounce is now.

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Take a moment and look at the roster of the Green owner in your leagues. If he is deficient at wide receiver or running back, and you can afford it, then you are now presented with a golden opportunity to take action and gamble on the ability of Green to return this season. The chatter on twitter today has been that Green will likely miss a few weeks. That wide receiver or running back deficient Green owner may need help now. If you have a surplus at any position, you may be able to help that owner out, at the right price.

I personally made offers in 3 of my 4 leagues (I own Green in the 4th) that will both help out the current owner in my leagues, while giving me the upside of a top 7 wide receiver if Green can get right this year. Don't necessarily give up your top tier talent to get him. If you can afford it, offer. The worst you can hear is no. My offers were Pierre Garçon to an owner who needs a receiver this week, and Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon to an owner who needs a running back now. The last offer was on a team where if I get Green, he would still be the 4th best receiver on the team, so I offered my 4th best running back Ahmad Bradshaw, and am not going to be upset if I don't get him. These players are about what I would value at the top of the spectrum for Green, since it is unknown if he will miss significant time the rest of this season.

If you want to find the best deals on Green, strike now. If the information comes out later this week that it is only a 1-2 week injury, the price will likely increase exponentially. If your trade partner needs help, offer it, and hopefully reap the rewards for swift action.  Good luck!

The Resurgence of Steve Smith

 Steve Smith has been in the NFL for quite a long time. He played for the Panthers from 2001-2013. This year signing with the Ravens as a free agent. It seems that his new team is allowing him an opportunity to shine once again as a fantasy receiver.

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After posting his worst numbers since 2010 last year in the Panthers offense, making 64 catches on 110 targets for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns, Smith is having a resurgent year in his first season in Baltimore. Through his first three games in 2014 he has 18 catches on 32 targets for 290 yards and a touchdown. His yards per catch is tied for the third highest in his career so far this season at 16.1, and his yards per game are also the third highest in his career at 96.7.

Smith had an average draft position on ESPN fantasy football of 111. This being the case, he would be someone to target in a trade for either another wide receiver, a mid level running back, or a tight end if his current fantasy team needs some help at that position. His upcoming schedule has some very nice match ups with the likes of the Panthers in week 4, Colts in week 5, Bucs in week 6, and Falcons in week 7. Having a late bye in week 11 is a positive as well. If you trade for him now, you would get 8 serviceable weeks before having to take him out of your lineup for his bye.

The schedule also sets up nicely for smith as the fantasy playoffs begin. The Ravens play the Dolphins in week 14 who have given up 5 passing touchdowns through the first 3 weeks of the season. In week 15 they play Jacksonville who are dead last in passing defense in the league.

Smith would make a nice addition as a wide receiver 2 or flex to a team who is not happy with their current wide receiver situation, with some serious playoff upside.

Trade Target: DeAndre Hopkins

DeAndre Hopkins is starting his year off with some decent numbers for the Houston Texans. He is today's focus of the target.

Hopkins has 13 catches, 2 touchdowns, and is averaging almost 17.5 yards per catch. The number 2 wide receiver in Houston for the time being, he is likely to draw the second corner on opposing teams, and will most likely not get double coverage much. I am a fan of the talented number 2 receivers in an offense who have talent. Year 2 is often a breakout season for talented players at the position.

His upcoming match ups seem to lend themselves to the possibility of his numbers being sustainable for the duration. Buffalo in week 4 is a difficult draw for Hopkins, but after that the Texans play against the Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers who lost Ike Taylor this week with a broken arm, Tennessee Titans, and Philadelphia Eagles before their week 10 bye. This schedule provides for some good games, and has a few possible shootouts with teams that have good offense and questionable defense.

Hopkins was most likely a round 4-6 pick in your draft depending on league size and rules. This should make his price considerably less than the top tier receivers and provide a good return on your investment. I would consider offering a mid level running back if you can spare one to the Hopkins owner in your league. If said owner doesn't like the idea of trading Hopkins, take a week and if he doesn't have a good game against Buffalo, give it another try.

The fantasy playoff run starts out quite well for Hopkins schedule, before toughening up during week 16. But if your playoffs run until week 17, the Texans play Jacksonville twice in the last 4 weeks of the season. Hopkins would be a primary and affordable target for a trade who could produce monster results.

It's Never Too Early To Start Thinking Playoffs: The Good

I know it's only week 3, but it's never too early to set yourself up for playoff success. I have compiled a list of teams that have good and bad schedules through the fantasy playoffs. This list includes a lot of players that will do well during the regular season as well, but this will focus on weeks 14-17 on the NFL schedule. Today's post is for the players and teams with good match ups for the fantasy playoffs.

First up on my most desired team list is the Detroit Lions. Detroit's Playoff schedule is quite favorable. Home against Tampa Bay, home against Minnesota, at Chicago, and at Green Bay. If your playoffs go week 14-16, all of these match ups are good, and week 17 is solid as well. Tampa bay has looked terrible. Minnesota is a mess, and Chicago can't stop the run and just lost Tillman for the year. Now I know you may not be able to wrestle Megatron or Stafford away from their owner, but Detroit's high powered offense has plenty of weapons for you to look for. Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, and Golden Tate are all primed for great seasons. The playoff match ups make them some of the more desirable players for me. You may also want to keep an eye on Eric Ebron, just in case he starts to get it and gets involved. At this point in the season, all these guys, with exception of Megatron, shouldn't cost you too much, and will set you up to win that championship.

Second up on the list is the Dallas Cowboys. Yes I realize that Tony Romo is a huge choke artist. but their schedule sets up well for the playoffs. At Chicago, at Philadelphia, home for Indianapolis, and at Washington. I know that three of the final four are on the road, but so far the only one that looks like they have any sort of defense is the Eagles, and that isn't saying much with this list. Dez Bryant falls under a similar list as Calvin Johnson does, might be too expensive, but Terrance Williams may not cost you too much, and may not even be rostered in your leagues. Jason Witten has not been very involved so far, and should come fairly cheap. DeMarco Murray will cost you a pretty penny, but Lance Dunbar is likely floating around the waiver wire, and if you can afford a roster spot on your bench, Murray has quite an injury history. As for Tony Romo, two disappointing weeks will likely leave him costing less, but lets remember he is a choke artist of the highest order.

Third we have the Chicago Bears. Mark Trestman is apparently the offensive genius that he is made out to be. Just look at what Josh McCown did in week 3 against the mighty Atlanta defense. Chicago plays Dallas at home, New Orleans at home, Detroit at home, and at Minnesota their final four games of the season. All of these teams have suspect secondaries and three of them have trouble with stopping the run. Guys like Marshall and Forte might be in that too expensive category, but with Alshon Jeffery currently nursing a hamstring injury, if you can offer his current team owner a solid starting option, he may be willing to part with him. Martellus Bennett has been a big part of the offense in the first two weeks. Sure some of that may be due to the fact that Jeffery has been slowed, but he is putting up solid numbers so far. Jay Cutler is a bit of a wildcard. He has a history of injuries, and the offensive line he is behind has been bad and is dealing with some injuries, but if you don't have Peyton, Rodgers, or Brees he might be a guy you look to pick up. Chicago also has a fairly good schedule all season.

Next up the Atlanta Falcons. Fresh off a 56-14 drubbing of the Tampa Bay Bucs, these guys are going to be hot. Julio Jones is an absolute monster when he is healthy. Atlanta plays at Green Bay, home against Pittsburgh, at New Orleans, and home against Carolina to finish the season. Obviously Carolina is not a great matchup, but the rest look good. Roddy White missed the Tampa Bay game, which may make trading for him much cheaper. Harry Douglas left that game with an injury, but hes a flex option if healthy at the end of the season. Devin Hester is another to keep an eye on. If your league rules give points for kick returner touchdowns, he is obviously a threat to take one to the house at any time, and has been working on offense a lot more than expected. Not quite sure what to make of the running back position with Atlanta. Stephen Jackson as the lead back is at the point of a running back career where he is over the hill. He dealt with injuries last season, and hasn't done a ton so far this year, although he did score against the Bucs. Devonta Freeman is believed to be the handcuff for Jackson, but I'm not sure I want to roster any of the backs from Atlanta. Give me the wide receivers and Matty Ice.

The Philadelphia Eagles are next on my list of teams I'd like to own. Week 14 is a tough match up against the Seahawks, although it is at home. After that they are home against Dallas, at Washington, and at the Giants. The latter of these matchups, even with two road games, looks fantastic for your playoffs. There are plenty of options at wide receiver and tight end with the Eagles. Assuming health, Jeremy Maclin is fast and can score at any moment. If Riley Cooper can get on the same page as Nick Foles, he is a big receiver who can do well in close situations, or catch the occasional long bomb. Zac Ertz at tight end is a good red zone target for Foles as well. LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles are a dynamic duo out of the backfield. Sproles is coming off a huge game in week two, and the price is going to be high, but he is a perfect fit for the Chip Kelly offense. McCoy will also likely be expensive to trade for since he likely went in the top 5 picks in your draft. If not can I play in your leagues?

Then we have the Carolina Panthers. At New Orleans, home versus Tampa Bay, home versus Cleveland, and at Atlanta round out their playoff schedule. I have a few concerns with the Panthers offense, but their schedule is good so you may want to acquire some of their players. Top of the list is Cam Newton. His track record is excellent. Top 5 fantasy quarterback every year. Solid passer, and gets you rushing yards and touchdowns. Greg Olsen, good tight end. Kelvin Benjamin, good receiver. Needs to soften up those stone hands, but one of the most NFL ready receivers I've seen. These are the guys I would look to own. Keep an eye on Jason Avant, but he's not currently on my radar. The running back situation in Carolina is currently a quagmire. Jonathan Stewart is the only one healthy. That seems a little ironic, dontcha think? and Tolbert and Newton are goal line touchdown vultures. I wouldn't make a huge effort to roster a Carolina running back. If you have a bench spot available, Stewart or DeAngelo may be worth stashing, but not to drop someone more useful.

The Green Bay Packers make my list next.  High powered offense. Home against Atlanta, at buffalo, at Tampa Bay, and home against the Lions rounds out the season. Aaron Rodgers, if you didn't draft him, you probably aren't getting him. Eddie Lacy, off to a slow start, but due to his high draft position, will probably be expensive. Jordy Nelson went for over 200 yards last week and Randall Cobb had two touchdowns.Prices for these guys are going to be high. It's not a secret that Green Bay has a good offense. The guy to watch is Davante Adams. It is seeming like he has taken over the third wide receiver spot for Green Bay. This offense is definitely good enough to support a third wide receiver and at least three of the playoff matchups feature secondaries that will not be likely to keep up with the Pack's attack. The only tight end to have any fantasy points for Green Bay after their first two games is Andrew Quarless, and its not much. Keep an eye on what develops, but as of now, no tight end with the Packers is worth snagging.

The Washington team is next. I'm on board with not using their name, as many find it offensive, and I am not interested in using an offensive term here. Home against St. Louis, at the Giants, home against Philadelphia, home against Dallas. St. Louis is the outlier here, possessing the best defense of the late season opponents for Washington. Kirk Cousins is the quarterback currently after the injury to Robert Griffin III. He got some starts last year, and had mixed results. the Jay Gruden offense seems like it will be a good fit for him, but time will tell. In relief of RG3 in week two, Cousins did well. It is likely that he is available or would be cheap to acquire, but this one is a gamble for sure. Pierre Garçon is a quality player and will likely be more involved than he was in week two. You could try to use the week two stats where he only had one catch to buy low on him. DeSean Jackson hurt his AC joint in his shoulder. This often can happen when there is a dislocation of the shoulder and makes it hard to reach up. If this heals up well, he should be just fine, but try to use that to drive his cost down. Jackson is a legit deep threat and can hit a home run at any time. In a standard league Alfred Morris is a workhorse back. He piles up yardage, but often in the past has lost goal line work to Roy Helu. I would not own Helu myself. He will have a game or two that are great. If you know when, can you tell me? Niles Paul was great in week two. Not sure what is going to happen when Jordan Reed gets back. The Bengals did use two tight end sets in Gruden's offense in the past, so that isn't out of the question. The lack of defense for Washington will lead to the high possibility that they will be in shootouts or be behind a lot. This is a knock down for Morris, but he will still get his carries. If Griffin comes back, I personally want no part of him, and it knocks all the other players except Morris down a notch for me.

Last but not least for me, the New Orleans Saints. The Saints schedule finishes home against Carolina, at Chicago, home against Atlanta, and at Tampa Bay. Drew Brees is off to a slow start. This may help his price, but since he was likely a top 3 drafted quarterback in your leagues, his price will remain high. Jimmy Graham is an amazing player, and he will also cost you an amazing amount if you even could make a deal for him. Of the wide receivers, the only one I have any real interest in at the moment is Brandin Cooks. In a PPR league, cooks should catch a lot of balls. He is likely to be used on some bubble screens and is a good target down the field as well and is also quite fast and can make big plays at any time. The running back situation in New Orleans is always tricky. To start the season Mark Ingram was doing well. Then he broke his hand. See if you can get him on the cheap from his owner in case he resumes the same role he was playing the first two weeks of the season. Pierre Thomas caught a lot of balls last season, and through the first two weeks of this year is averaging 4.5 catches per game. Khiry Robinson will have an increased presence in the offense with Ingram out, but when he is back, its not certain who will have what roles. I would try to get Thomas on the cheap in a PPR league, and Ingram cheap. Robinson was likely picked up on waivers this week and his team owner will likely not want to give him up before he sees what kind of usage he will be getting.

This brings us to the end of my teams and guys you want to get list. In the coming days I will be posting a list of the guys and teams I think you should avoid. Good Luck this weekend and happy shopping!