The Resurgence of Steve Smith

 Steve Smith has been in the NFL for quite a long time. He played for the Panthers from 2001-2013. This year signing with the Ravens as a free agent. It seems that his new team is allowing him an opportunity to shine once again as a fantasy receiver.

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After posting his worst numbers since 2010 last year in the Panthers offense, making 64 catches on 110 targets for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns, Smith is having a resurgent year in his first season in Baltimore. Through his first three games in 2014 he has 18 catches on 32 targets for 290 yards and a touchdown. His yards per catch is tied for the third highest in his career so far this season at 16.1, and his yards per game are also the third highest in his career at 96.7.

Smith had an average draft position on ESPN fantasy football of 111. This being the case, he would be someone to target in a trade for either another wide receiver, a mid level running back, or a tight end if his current fantasy team needs some help at that position. His upcoming schedule has some very nice match ups with the likes of the Panthers in week 4, Colts in week 5, Bucs in week 6, and Falcons in week 7. Having a late bye in week 11 is a positive as well. If you trade for him now, you would get 8 serviceable weeks before having to take him out of your lineup for his bye.

The schedule also sets up nicely for smith as the fantasy playoffs begin. The Ravens play the Dolphins in week 14 who have given up 5 passing touchdowns through the first 3 weeks of the season. In week 15 they play Jacksonville who are dead last in passing defense in the league.

Smith would make a nice addition as a wide receiver 2 or flex to a team who is not happy with their current wide receiver situation, with some serious playoff upside.

Tight End Replacements For Week Four

The last few weeks in the NFL have taken a toll on the tight end position. With injuries and bye weeks starting in week 4 many fantasy players will be looking for a replacement for the short or long term. Here is a list of suggestions for a replacement tight end.

Larry Donnell (NYG) has been a good safety valve for Eli Manning in the first few weeks of the season. Donnell has averaged 6 catches a game and scored in week 1. If he is not owned in your league, he is a good option to pick up.

Niles Paul (WAS) has been getting targets with Jordan Reed out. Averaging 6 receptions a game for the first 3 weeks, and having a touchdown in week 2 makes him a viable addition to your team.

Owen Daniels (BAL) didn't see much action in the passing game in week 3, but he had 4 catches in week 1 and 5 in week 2 with two touchdowns. With the injury to Dennis Pitta and his familiarity in the Gary Kubiak offense, Daniels figures to see a more prominent role in the Baltimore passing attack.

Andrew Quarless (GB) had four catches and a touchdown in week 3 against Detroit. Quarless seems to have emerged as the pass catching tight end in the Green Bay offense. Some decent looking matchups against a depleted Chicago secondary in week 4 and Minnesota in week 5 set him up for success in the coming weeks.

Jace Amaro (NYJ) had 3 catches for 54 yards against Chicago Monday night. In an offense that is lacking in overall talent at pass catching positions, and has an iffy Eric Decker with a hamstring injury, Amaro may see an increased role.

Jeff Cumberland (NYJ) may see increased targets if Decker has a prolonged absence. His production has not been very big so far, but in an offense that will struggle at the outside wide receiver spots without Decker, he may be worth a speculative add in case of emergency.

Dwayne Allen (IND) has been all or nothing this season. He has scored in 2 of the first 3 games, and had no catches in the other. some tough match ups await the Colts in the near future, but if you have a desperate need at tight end, he does catch the ball.

Lance Kendricks and Jared Cook (STL) both had good games against Dallas in week three. This is likely a testament to how decimated and devoid of overall talent the Dallas defense is, so approach these guys with caution.

The Zero Running Back Strategy And Mid-round Pass Catchers

I personally play in 4 fantasy leagues this season. Three of the four are PPR (point per reception) leagues. I like this format as it is a higher scoring format, and makes some selections during draft time require more finesse and strategy.

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In preparing for my leagues last season I came up with the idea that I wanted to get 2 or 3 high volume wide receivers and forgo running backs in the first few rounds. Three depends on the presence of a flex spot in your leagues. My main goals were: Get Calvin Johnson as often as possible, Get someone like Demarius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green. Basically to get two of the most highly ranked receivers that catches a high volume of passes. These guys are usually match up proof and get between 85-100 catches a year. In a PPR format this leads to 85-100 more points, making someone like Calvin Johnson have a similar value to Peyton Manning last year during a record setting season.

Now to your running backs. If you take 2 wide receivers in a row, you will still find some teams starting running backs in round 3. These guys won’t be the bell cow workhorse guys for their team, but a starting running back has value in any fantasy league. The key is the round 4 through 6 picks. This is the area where you need to have an idea about what the people in your draft like to do, as well as the average draft positions of the players you want to take. I don't mind a small reach to get a guy I really want on my team if I am certain he won't come back to me at my next pick. At the same time, if there are a few players you like in this portion of the draft, reaching may not be your best option. This year I did lots of mock drafts, from every possible draft position, to make sure that I had an idea of where the guys I really liked went. Your league, like mine, will be filled with the “average” player. Some better than others, but you can get a general idea about where players are going.

These rounds are where I like to target my pass catching running backs. Players like Danny Woodhead, Darren Sproles, and Joique Bell were going in this range this season. While Woodhead is off to a slow start, I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a surge now that Ryan Matthews is out for a while. And we have all seen what Sproles has done the first few weeks of the season. I have a feeling Joique Bell is about to explode in that Detroit offense. I think he is the best back on that team, and I think they figured that out week 1. If you can land one or two of these guys in a PPR league and they get you 3-5 catches a week and a TD every 2-3 weeks, you will be a happy camper. Back fill with some running back depth, another wide receiver, and a solid late bye defense and kicker, and you have a recipe for success.

TY Hilton Is Not Your Guy

Like many other fantasy football players, I have fallen victim to the hype on TY Hilton. He’s a super athletic player, lots of talent potential. But he has consistently failed to live up to the hype over the years. Hilton has put up some amazing games at times. For a guy who is consistently near the top of the list in targets, he fails at capitalizing on those targets.

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Last season, spending much of it as the number one wide receiver on the Colts after Reggie Wayne tore his ACL, Hilton received 108 targets making 72 catches for a catch rate of 66%. On those 72 catches he gained 689 yards for an average of 9.56 yards per catch. On those 72 catches as the number one guy, he scored a total of three touchdowns. Three. All of them in the first week after Wayne went down.

Now you might say that this is because he was now receiving more attention from the DBs of the other team. While this may or may not be true, his numbers don’t hash out a better performance with Wayne on the field. In the seven weeks with Wayne, Hilton made 27 catches for 412 yards. While his yards per catch were better over this time, 15.26, he only scored 2 touchdowns during this seven game stretch. And in week seven when Wayne went down Hilton got 11 targets and made only 2 catches.

This makes Hilton unownable in my opinion for fantasy purposes. If he is on your roster I would consider trading him for whatever you can get for him. Maybe a decent defense with a late bye so you don’t have to worry about changing for a while. Another option is to try to sell the Andrew Luck owner on him as a way to double dip fantasy points, but don’t quote this article.