Trade Targets: CJ Anderson

Well we are about two weeks into the NFL season. As I sit writing this, we all are awaiting kickoff between the Giants and Redskins for week three. Some narratives have come true, some look false. The time has come to wade through these and find the diamonds in the rough that have just gotten off to a rough start.

Last season I wrote an article about Eddie Lacy after the first three weeks of the season. He faced off against three top five defenses to start his season, and was seen to be underperforming. But the reality was, those defenses he faced were good. It was a brutal start to the year. And if you found an owner willing to trade you Lacy, you got a great performance from him the rest of the way. The deal I made was trading Alshon Jeffery for Eddie Lacy straight up. Jeffery was my WR4, and I could afford the deal.

Image source: denverpost.com

So after two weeks of the season, who is a guy that we can take a look at buying low on? 

Who has a favorable schedule moving forward? When should we pounce? Let’s take a look at all these factors together now.

CJ Anderson, RB, Denver has been a major disappointment. I was in love with the narrative for the Denver offense this season. Aging quarterback, stud tight end gone, and new coach who wants to run the ball a lot, what’s not to love. Add to that a defense that can hold their opponents down and make the strategy work. It all sounds so great.

Then, reality sets in.

 Anderson hurts his toe in game one. Peyton looks terrible in the Kubiak offense. He can’t run and looks every bit of his age. The offensive line looks like they can’t block at all. Through two weeks of the season Anderson has 56 yards on 24 carries and five catches for 21 yards. Not good numbers. Is there any good news? Well in Week 1 they played Baltimore in a defensive brawl. Baltimore has been a tough defense against the run.  Kansas City in week two proved a tough match up for the Broncos all around. But in a tale of two halves the Broncos were able to move the ball later in the game, and CJ was the back on the field.

So what does the upcoming schedule hold for CJ and the Broncos? Well before the season I would have told you that the Broncos face a fairly tough start, but also have a Top 5 run schedule this year. Kansas City was an outlier based on their stats from last year, but the next opponent for the Broncos is the Lions, and without Deandre Levy and Ndamukong Suh plugging up the middle, the Lions have not been that strong against the run in their first two games.

After that game the schedule really opens up for the Broncos on the ground. The next seven games are against teams that were in the bottom half of yards allowed on the ground last season. The Patriots are the eighth game out after the Lions, and one of only two more Top 10 run defenses from last season. The Fantasy playoff run consists of games against the Raiders, Steelers, and Bengals for weeks 14-16.

I am recommending taking a shot at trading for CJ Anderson in your leagues. 

If you have a surplus of wide receivers on your bench, you might be able to give your fourth or fifth best wide receiver to a team that is likely in need of an infusion of points. If you are running back heavy, you might be able to move one of them for Anderson.

Basically I see the tide turning for Anderson. If the offensive line can gel, and Kubiak and Manning can find a common ground to run an offense that can succeed, Anderson can truly be a diamond in the rough for your fantasy team. Take a run at his owner and see what you can make happen. Bargain shopping in week 2 can make you a champion.

Jonathan Stewart 2015 Outlook

Jonathan Stewart is entering his eighth season in the NFL in 2015. Spending most of his career thus far sharing a backfield with DeAngelo Williams has really hurt Stewart’s ability to score for Fantasy. Along with the crowded backfield, injuries have sidelined Stewart for 22 games in his career. So why would you want to draft a guy that has this history? Let’s take a look at what lies ahead for him this season.

Image source: tireball.com

Stewart hasn’t been as consistent as you might like to see from a running back. Over his last three seasons Stewart has only scored a quality game in nine of 28 games according to Bob Lung’s consistency guide. Looking at the breakdowns by defense level, Stewart is consistently inconsistent. The best category for consistency broken down by defense for Stewart is at home against good defenses, scoring two of four quality games. Taking into account all other defensive rankings together you get an average of 29% quality games. This does not bode well for the chances for Stewart. Most of this second category of quality games was against the bad and middle of the road defenses that should allow for more scoring to a running back.

Taking a look at the schedule for the Carolina Panthers this season has a bit of good news to it. The Panthers will be facing the second best schedule of run defenses from 2014 rankings. The average rank of the run defenses they will face this season is 19.68. The Panthers will have the luxury of only facing off against three Top 10 run defenses from a season ago. The season opens with a soft landing at Jacksonville. The Texans in Week Two present a more difficult challenge. After that the following two games against the Saints and Bucs will be good match ups. Then a rough match up against the Seahawks leads to a cleaner finish to the season.

The playoff run for the Panthers looks pretty good. Week 14 sees the Falcons coming to town. Week 15 sees Carolina traveling to the already banged up Giants. Week 16 sees the Panthers playing the Falcons for the second time in three weeks. Even though you can expect the Falcons to play tougher than last season under new coach Dan Quinn, they were the 21^st ranked run defense last year, and huge overnight change is unlikely. Finally if you play through week 17, the Buccaneers and their 19^th ranked pass defense last season come to Carolina.

Stewart has an ADP that puts him at the end of the fourth round overall. Going at 47^th, his price puts him in the RB2 or RB3 category. In his same area of the ADP you can find players that I would both be more comfortable with, and some that I would be less comfortable with. Andre Ellington is at 49^th in ADP right behind Stewart. I would probably take Ellington over Stewart myself. On the flip side of that coin, Todd Gurley is going at the 46^th pick in ADP, and I would rather have both Stewart and Ellington over Gurley in a redraft league. If you are picking in this area there are a few other players for positions other than running back that I would take over Stewart here.

Another consideration that you must have is the fact that Stewart will have a hard time getting red zone touches. Not only is Cam Newton a touchdown vulture up close, but the Panthers have a history of using Mike Tolbert when they get in close. On top of those two taking away red zone touches, the Panthers have taken on the basketball team mentality for their wide receivers. Now having two very tall receivers, and Greg Olsen who is also tall, the red zone is a crowded place for Carolina.

One thing to note for sure is that if you take Jonathan Stewart for your 2015 Fantasy team, you need to grab Cameron Artis-Payne as a backup. With Stewart being the poster child for getting injured over his career, his back up is an important asset. The schedule is so good that the next man up might have a shot at relevance as well.

Earlier this offseason I was all aboard the Stewart train. As we get closer to the season, and I take a closer look at both where his ADP is settling in at, and his overall situation, I have a hard time finding myself wanting to take Stewart on my team this season. If available I would rather take another running back or wide out at the same spot and wait for a Giovanni Bernard type in round five.

Mocking the 11 pick in a 12 team league

Mock drafting is a very important part of the preseason regimen that a Fantasy player should go through. I have already completed around 50 mock drafts this season. The process has been made much faster this season after I found the Mock Draft Simulator I wrote about here. Instead of taking an hour, the simulator takes the average draft positions rankings, and simulates a draft for you. You can pick various settings for the rosters and league size, making it a great tool for all kinds of leagues. An upgrade to the pro level on fantasy pros lets you draft against a higher level setting, making your draft game even better.

Image source: greeleytribune.com

Drafting from all the different positions in the draft helps you discover the players that will be available at your picks, and prepares you for your draft.

Knowing the likely rounds you need to take the players you are interested in allows you to put together a solid plan to draft the team you want.

For the first in this series I have decided to pick from the 11 spot. The league setting is a 12 team PPR with two wide receivers, two running backs, and a flex.

So let’s take a look at the mock draft from pick 11.

When my first round pick came up I had some choices. There were some great players still available. Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., Demaryius Thomas, Arian Foster, and CJ Anderson were all available. With only one player in between my first and second picks my selection process is skewed by the talent left at wide receiver. If I take a second tier high level running back there will still be at least one wide out that I would be happy to have on my team when my pick at 14 comes back to me. With only two running backs left that I am interested at this point in the draft, I would not be guaranteed one of them. So my selection was Foster. I wouldn’t fault you for taking Anderson, but as I wrote about Foster earlier this year, I like him a lot this season.

This was written before the injury to Foster in the preseason. That injury makes it imperative in my opinion that you would take Anderson at this spot. He is the best running back left and could be the end of a tier at the position. There will still be the same receivers behind this pick, but you have by far taken the best running back left.

As it turned out

the picks at 12 and 13 were Beckham and Jones, leaving me to take Demaryius Thomas at pick 14. This sets up the situation I am favoring this season in my leagues. In the past I have favored a zero running back approach to PPR leagues, but this year I am leaning more toward taking a running back if the right guy is available. In this draft I now have a great running back and an elite wide receiver to start my draft out. I know that when it gets back to me at the end of round three none of the elite wide receivers or running backs will be left.

When it does come my turn at pick 35

there were still some decent players available. For running backs Lamar Miller, Alfred Morris, Jonathan Stewart were all there to be selected. At wide receiver the available players were Brandin Cooks, Emmanuel Sanders, Kelvin Benjamin, and Julian Edelman. At this point in the draft quarterback can also be a consideration to me, and Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson were available. I am not a huge fan of Miller this year, Morris is not a great back in PPR formats because he doesn’t catch passes, and Stewart has a history of injury so I am not a huge fan of any of these players. If I didn’t already have Thomas as one of my receivers I might take Sanders, but I don’t want two receivers from the same team. With a lot of targets available in the New Orleans offense and a belief that Cooks will be getting his fair share of them, I selected him. Edelman would be a solid choice in a PPR format, but the possibility of Tom Brady missing four games sours me on him at this spot in the draft.

The round four pick, 38 overall left me in a similar spot. I am confident that a quarterback that can touch the elite level will not be around at the end of round five. I have two great wide receivers already so taking a guy I am not sure about in Edelman, and a guy who is unlikely to have the same level of targets and has drop issues in Benjamin is not on my radar. So I decide to do something I don’t usually do and take Peyton. This allows me to stack my elite wide receiver and his quarterback. As I wrote here, I like to stack an elite target and the guy throwing him the ball when it is possible. This satisfies my desire there.

By the time my pick in round five comes around,

59 overall, all of the Top 20 running backs and wide receivers were off the board. Russell Wilson has fallen to this spot, a slight miscalculation on my part, but I’m still happy with Peyton. The best available players on the board at running back are Giovanni Bernard, Carlos Hyde, Latavius Murray, and TJ Yeldon. Travis Kelce and Greg Olson are both available at tight end, but I am not a fan of early tight ends. Yeldon is my pick here. I am gambling on a rookie, but he is a rookie that has the job pretty well locked up. I have recently read some good reports on Yeldon and how well he has picked up the offense. If he can lock down pass blocking, he has a chance to be a three down back.

For my pick at 62 overall Carlos Hyde and Travis Kelce have now come off the board. Latavius Murray and Giovanni Bernard are still available at running back. I am not ready to go with another gamble on a guy who is unproven at running back and is on a team that will likely be trailing a lot. With Roy Helu on the roster, the Raiders have a pass catching back not named Latavius. I am still not a fan of Bernard at this spot so I switch up my thinking a bit. Greg Olson is the fourth ranked tight end on the blended rankings, and since I already have a fairly well rounded setup of starters, I decided to take Olson at this spot. My belief is that in later rounds I can find a few guys to platoon at my flex spot, but I now have a lineup that I am willing to run out every week of the season and take my chances with.

Between rounds six and seven a quarterback run position happens.

This is important to note because this is a likely spot that if you don’t have a quarterback, it’s time to get your man. Since I already do, that allows players to fall to me that were available previously. When my pick at 83 overall comes up, Giovanni Bernard is still on the board. Even though I am not a fan of him this season, as I wrote earlier, every player will have a place in a draft where the value is better than the pick. Bernard will be a great flex player in a PPR league, so he is my pick at 83.

When it comes back around in the eighth round at pick 86 overall there are still some decent values on the board. Rashad Jennings, Joique Bell, LeGarrette Blount are the best running backs on the board. Eric Decker and Larry Fitzgerald are the top receivers left for the taking. Seeing as I have a rookie and a guy I don’t believe in this year on my squad already, I decide to take Joique bell to bolster my running back depth. I don’t like to take Patriots backs since you never know what they are going to do, and Jennings has a hard time staying healthy, so Joique is my guy.

A stoke of good fortune finds me when it comes back to me at 107 and 110.

We find that both Decker and Fitzgerald have fallen to me. These are guys that in the later rounds I am a fan of getting on my teams. I don’t believe in Geno Smith as an NFL quarterback. I think that at some point this season he will be on the bench and Ryan Fitzpatrick gives Decker a lot of opportunity. Fitzpatrick is a decent NFL quarterback with the ability to run a good offense. He is not a top level quarterback, but he is a veteran who knows what he is doing. Fitzgerald is a bit more of a flier than I think Decker is. But in the 10^th round he is a good value. If Carson Palmer can stay healthy this season, Fitzgerald should have better numbers than he did with the menagerie of terrible quarterbacks the Cardinals had last year. As my fourth wide out I could do worse.

When my pick comes up in round 11,

131 overall, I found a lot of late round values at the wide receiver spot. Brandon LaFell, Steve Smith, Anquon Boldin, Pierre Garcon, Torrey Smith, and Marques Colston are available. Not much left in the running back bin, so I am now rolling with what I have at running back and am taking the receivers due to their value this late in the draft. As I wrote previously about Boldin, I like him as a late round guy this season.

Pick 134 in the 12^th round has me looking at two guys. Pierre Garcon and Marques Colston are my favorite picks left on the board. I love both of these guys in the 12^th round this year. I wrote about Garcon in my late round ppr values article this week. I see him as a player with big potential to bounce back this season if he can get some consistent play from the quarterback position. I like Colston late this year too for the same reasons I like Cooks. But therein lies the problem. Having Cooks already on my team makes me not want to draft Colston. If Cooks isn’t already on my roster I would err on the side of the better quarterback situation and snatch up Colston. So Garcon is my guy.

At pick 155 overall in round 13 I pull a fast one.

I sneak in and take the defense I am targeting this year. The Jets are ranked 11^th this season by the fantasy pros consensus rankings. To me this is a huge undervaluing of their defense. They have a great front line. Yes it would be better if Sheldon Richardson didn’t keep getting himself in trouble, but they will still have a solid front four. The glaring hole they had last year was at cornerback, and they addressed that in a big way this season. Adding Darrell Revis and Antonio Cromartie to their defensive backfield will bolster their defense and will likely decrease their points allowed, while increasing their turnovers forced. I don’t want to miss out on them, so I take them a little earlier than most would draft a D/ST.

At pick 158 overall, the second in the 14^th round I decide to take the top ranked kicker as none of them are off the board yet. This allows me to have the best kicker over the past few years, and locks me in to a kicker I will be happy to run out there for the entire season. I can snipe the top guy and know that most of the other teams are only taking defense and kickers for the rest of the draft, so I can get most of the skill position players that are left on the board with my final pick. You can feel free to take a kicker based on any factor you see fit. Some like a kicker that plays indoors, some like the Denver kicker to add that distance from their thin air. I usually go with Stephen Gostkowski in this position. He’s good. He’s consistent. He’s my pick in round 14.

With my last pick, 179 overall, at the end of the 15^th round it is time for a flier.

The best available players on the board are Kendall Wright, John Brown, Larry Donnell, Percy Harvin, Reuben Randle, Kenny Stills, Charles Clay, and Devante Parker. With the Justin Hunter situation in Tennessee probably keeping him out, you can’t really stab people, I decided to take Wright. He is the highest ranked, has the best situation, and plays for a bad team that is likely to throw a lot this year. I could also take Davante Parker in this spot, but I think he will be available a few weeks down the line on waivers when his situation becomes clearer. By that time you might be able to easily discard one or more of your current roster to make room for him as he rounds into playing shape.

A feature I like about the mock draft simulator is that it will give you a rating for your starters, bench, and overall team. My starters were the top ranked in the league for this draft. My bench was only the fifth best according to their metrics, but I would not be planning to use my bench a lot. I also have a fair amount of receivers that I believe have a good chance for resurgent production this year if the chips can fall right for them. I have great wide receiver depth on this team, and if one or two of them can hit, I might have some good trade chips for upgrading at another spot in my lineup.

So we reach the end of the first installment of this look at mock drafting. I hope this article has served to help you in your planning and preparation for your drafts this season. Look for my articles on other draft pick spots in the near future.

Chris Ivory 2015 Schedule Outlook

The New York Jets have not been a very good team the last few years. A great run defense and marginal pass defense have been the best units on their team. Lacking talent on offense has been an issue. An unproven, and at times bad, quarterback and lack of depth at receiver have hamstrung the Jets offense. With a regime change and the addition of Brandon Marshall you might think that the passing game will get a better look. And it may. But with Todd Bowles installed as the head man and a hugely upgraded secondary, look for the jets to win by controlling the ball and shutting down the opponents offense.

Image source: nypost.com

Enter Chris Ivory.

Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets currently sits atop the depth chart. Over the last few seasons he has not been the most consistent of running backs, but its tough to be great when they know you are running and stack the box. Ivory only had 44% quality games last season using the consistency guide of Bob Lung. His late season run was pretty bad as teams realized that the Jets lacked a passing attack.

Over the last two seasons Ivory’s splits for both home vs road and rank of defense have not been great. His best category is against bad defenses at home, where he was a perfect four for four. At home against good defenses he was four of seven quality games, 57%. On the road overall he is only four of 15, 27%.

The schedule for the Jets this year is the seventh best schedule against run defenses.

With an average ranking of 18.31, the jets will only face four of the Top 10 run defenses from last season. To open the season Ivory and the Jets will not face a Top 10 run defense. In games six through 10,  the schedule gets much tougher. Three Top 11 run defenses await during this period. Weeks 11 to 13 have great match ups against teams that are no better than 24^th in run defense last season. The playoff run is difficult for Ivory and his Jets counterparts. The Week 14 game is in Ivory’s favor, facing the second worst run defense of last season in the Titans. After that it gets much more difficult. Week 15 sees the Jets travel to the eighth ranked run defense of the Cowboys. The Week 16 match up doesn’t get much easier, facing the ninth ranked run defense of the Patriots. If your league plays through week 17 you won’t find a reprieve either. The 11^th ranked Bills will host the Jets in the finale.

Ivory is not historically a big pass catcher out of the backfield.

Having a career high 18 receptions on 27 targets in 2014 means that in a PPR league you will not get many extra points from his activity in the passing game. Ivory also must win the job during training camp. The Jets signed Stevan Ridley and traded for Zac Stacy in the off season. This isn’t Ivory’s job without earning it. The good news is that if one of the other guys in the competition wins the job, my advice will be the same.

Ivory, or the winner of the competition, is at best a RB2 or a flex. If you draft them, look to trade them after four or five weeks for a player that has a better looking second half or playoff schedule. He is a player you could platoon throughout the season based on match ups. Ivory is currently RB 44 at 106^th overall pick in the ADP on fantasypros.com. As late round depth that has potential trade value, Ivory is a target of mine in round nine to ten.

Reggie Bush 2015 outlook

Reggie Bush has found his way to his fourth team in his NFL career. Starting out in New Orleans, and arguably being misused in their offense, Bush moved on to Miami for two fairly productive seasons. Following Miami, Bush spent two seasons in Detroit, last season hampered by injuries. And finally in 2015 Bush will find himself in with the San Francisco 49ers. Likely his last stop entering his 10^th season in the NFL, Bush is set up for success as long as he can stay healthy.

Image source: 49ers.com

Bush has not been the model of efficiency 

using the consistency report from Bob Lung. With 24 quality games out of 41 in his last three seasons, Bush has been a 59% consistent player. He has played well against bad defenses with a 100% consistent performance on the road, and 71% at home. Bush scored well at home against middle ranked defense at 60% consistent, but bad on the road against this tier with no quality games. Surprisingly against good defenses Bush is more consistent on the road than at home.

The way I am looking at the 49ers schedule and Bush for the 2015 season is in respect to passing downs. The attrition that the 49ers faced this offseason leaves the cupboard bare on defense, and I believe they will be a shell of their former selves. This leads me to believe that they will be trailing a fair amount this season and will be throwing a lot. This is where we see the value in Bush. He will likely be inheriting the passing downs work, and if San Francisco is behind, a lot of downs will be passing downs.

In regards to defenses they will face this season, the passing defenses are the softer spot for San Francisco. They face an average pass defense of 17.87, the 10^th best. They face five Top 10 pass defenses from a season ago. Compare this to the 23^rd ranked run defense schedule at an average rank of 14.93 and five Top 10 run defenses. With the mess the 49ers will probably be on defense, and difficult run defense schedule, I can see them spending a lot of time trying to catch up by passing.

San Francisco plays in one of the toughest divisions in football. The defenses they face in Seattle, St. Louis, and Arizona are no joke. They all sport tough, hard hitting defenses. The worst rank any divisional foe had in run defense was 14 last season. The Cardinals and rams were ranked worse in pass than run last season, meaning that the vulnerability they did show favors Bush.

Additionally, the bye week for the 49ers is a late one this season. Week 10 is when San Francisco will be taking a week off. If Bush hit, you can plug him into a flex spot in the lineup for a long duration of the Fantasy season.

The big caveat for Bush will be staying healthy.

He is not a young man anymore with respect to being a running back. Entering his 10^th season in the NFL, health will be the big concern for Bush. He has missed 7 games the last two seasons, and was not particularly effective last season. In 2014 he only had about 550 yards from scrimmage and two scores. The positive in the respect is his average draft position. He amounts to a lottery ticket for Fantasy owners this year. The current average draft position for Reggie is 120 according to fantasypros.com. This means that in a 12 team league he is a pick at the 10^th and 11^th round turn. By this point in the draft he makes perfect sense as a guy with some upside after you have your starting core established.

With all the signs in San Francisco pointing towards them pushing the reset button 

on the team and cleaning house, Reggie Bush might be the diamond in the rough that can help your fantasy team in the 2015 season. If he can stay healthy, and San Francisco plays as bad on defense as it looks like they will, Bush has a big chance to see a lot of playing time. For a 10 or 11 Bush can be the lottery ticket that helps Fantasy owners bring home a championship.

Danny Woodhead 2015 Late Round Running Back

Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego Chargers

is back this season after breaking his leg in September of the 2014 season. Woodhead was a big part of the chargers offense in the 2013 season. A sneaky value play that season, Woodhead is on my list of late round value guys you can look to plug in as a platoon at your running back or flex spots this season.

Image source: nypost.com

Taking a look at the Average Draft Position (ADP) to find value players to take in a PPR league is a good preseason practice. Sure leagues might play out a little differently, but overall I have found that the values are pretty similar. Some of that can be attributed to the rankings on a  league site influencing the players that show available at the nearby picks. So knowing the players and where they tend to go in drafts gives owners a head start over their opponents in draft strategy.

This is where we find Woodhead. With an ADP of 107 according to fantasypros.com PPR rankings, Woodhead is a good addition to a Fantasy team for a multitude of purposes. He can be used as a bye week fill in for the RB2 or flex positions. If  punting on the RB2 spot in favor of either a heavy early wide receiver draft, or take an elite quarterback or tight end in the early rounds, then Woodhead can be immensely valuable.

Taking a look at his 2013 numbers with the Chargers, 

we find that Woodhead was a very productive guy in PPR formats. He had over 1000 yards combined, 429 rushing and 605 receiving. Along with his solid yardage statistics, Woodhead also scored eight total touchdowns during the 2013 season, two rushing and six receiving. He made his hay in long yardage situations and in the red zone. On plays where the Chargers had 10 or more yards to go, Woodhead gained 625 of his yards. In the red zone he had 18 rushes, scoring on two of those. But his big key to the red zone offense for San Diego was his receiving in the red zone. In 2013 he caught 19 passes in the red zone, scoring on five of them. That is excellent efficiency, scoring on about one of every four red zone passes he caught.

The schedule for the Chargers breaks in two completely different directions. The run defenses they will face are by far better than the pass defenses. The average run defense the Chargers will face is 17.68, the ninth easiest schedule in the league. They will only face five Top 10 run defenses. The pass defenses on the slate this season are much harder. The schedule is ranked 27^th overall, with an average of 13.75. Eight Top 10 pass defenses from last season await them. Traditionally Woodhead has played well against lower ranked defenses.

The season opens with a tough game at home against Detroit, the top run defense last year, and 13^th against the pass, but it gets better from there. After Week 1, the Chargers face bottom half run defenses in five of the next six games. Fantasy playoff time finds the schedule breaking very well for the Chargers running game. In Week 14 the Chiefs stout pass defense and 28^th ranked run defense host San Diego. Week 15 finds the Chargers hosting the long traveling, pass defending, and 24^th ranked run defending Miami Dolphins. In many leagues championship games, the Chargers travel to Oakland and face their 22^nd ranked run defense and 16^th ranked pass defense. If the playoffs play to Week 17, a difficult divisional road match up awaits the Chargers in Denver. Denver sported the number two run defense and the number nine pass defense a year ago.

With the fact that Woodhead is returning from an injury

Fantasy players will definitely want to keep an eye on him in training camp and preseason games to make sure that he is healthy and still able to play. The Chargers also drafted Melvin Gordon, a solid pass catching back, who may be able to keep Woodhead at bay if he can pass block well. Branden Oliver showed well as the Chargers running back last year in the absence of Woodhead for a few games, so his usage and position on the depth chart should also be monitored.

A possible boon for Woodhead might be found in the suspension of Antonio Gates. With gates out for the first four games of the season, San Diego will be without one of their red zone targets. This may serve to boost the usage of Woodhead in the red zone, leaving his Fantasy owners to reap the benefits.

If Woodhead can win his spot back as the long yardage, third down, and red zone back for San Diego, he might be a player that can help fantasy owners win a championship in the 2015 season. His late round ADP makes him an easily attainable resource for any team. 

Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard 2015 Schedule Outlook

I listen to a lot of podcasts about fantasy football. I read a lot of tweets and articles. Recently I have heard a lot of industry folks singing the praises of both of the Bengals running backs. I'm here to give you Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard 2015 schedule outlook.

Image source: Creative Commons Fletcher45005

Cincinnati is facing the third toughest run defense opposition in the league in the 2015 season. Averaging the ranks of the run defenses they will face gives you an average of the 13.75. On top of that, the Bengals have 8 weeks of facing opponents that were in the top 10 run defenses from last season. That makes for a brutal season of tough grinding to gain yards on the ground.

The first 4 weeks of the season are good for Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard's 2015 schedule outlook, and then it quickly goes downhill after that. The Raiders, Chargers, and Chiefs are 3 of their first 4 opponents, and judging by last seasons numbers, those could set up nicely for the duo. After those first 4 games the only team that the Bengals will face in the rest of the season that was ranked worse than 14th in rushing yards allowed last season is their 2 division games against the Browns.

Last season Hill was somewhat streaky. According to ffconsistency.com, Hill had a consistency rating of 63%, meaning he scored 11 points in a PPR format. Of his 1124 rushing yards, 701 of them came in only 5 weeks of the season. That is a whopping 62% of his yards in only 5 weeks. Add to that the fact that Bernard missed 3 games in which Hill racked up 361 of his yards as the only real running threat, and was force fed the ball 2 of those 3 weeks. Hill did catch a few passes, but the yardage and PPR points were negligible.

Bernard was similarly streaky. His consistency rating from ffconsistency.com was 62%. Gio rushed for 680 yards last season, and caught 43 passes for 349 yards. His best receiving games were against the lower tier pass defenses. The upcoming slate of pass defenses will be difficult for the Bengals this season, and average of 14.06 ranked pass defense and also 8 top 10 opponents. He also missed 3 games with injuries last season. Now sure, injuries can't be predicted, but given his smaller frame, they can be more likely.

Add to the mix that the passing game is in for a rough season in 2015 as well. As i told you in my article on quarterbacks, Andy Dalton and the Bengals passing game have a lower third schedule of passing defenses. The combination of strong defenses all around might leave a little space for Hill and Bernard to have a few good weeks, but you can do better for your fantasy teams than what I think they will offer you this year.

Given Jeremy Hill and Goivanni Bernard's 2015 schedule outlook, and the time share in the backfield, I cannot justify the prices you will have to pay. Currently the average draft position on myfantasyleague.com is 18 for Hill, and 46 for Bernard. Bernard is definitely a slightly better value at those prices, but his workload figures to be less than Hill, and I think I would rather take a player like Jonathan Stewart, Latavius Murray, or even Frank Gore in that same spot in the draft.

Forsett It, And Forget It

The 2014 season had some surprising characters come to the forefront of the NFL story. In the wake of the Ray Rice scandal that rocked both the league, and the Baltimore Ravens, Justin Forsett is one of those characters. That combined with a few other factors make him a guy I want on my teams in 2015.

Image source: justinforsett.sportsblog.com

Forsett racked up 235 carries during the 2014 season, turning them into 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on the ground. That made him the 5th ranked back in yards. He added 44 receptions for 263 yards to his solid rushing totals. Using Bob Lung's quality game consistency stats, www.ffconsistency.com, Forsett had 81% consistency rating, good for a tie for 7th with Marshawn Lynch.

This off season the Ravens have added Mark Trestman as their offensive coordinator. Trestman is

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generally thought of as an offensive genius, and for the last few seasons was the mastermind behind the Chicago Bears offense. What the Bears, and more specifically Matt Forte, did at the running back position leads to much excitement for me. Over the Trestman years in Chicago, Forte was a PPR juggernaut. During the 2013 and 2014 seasons Forte had 2377 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. Add to that 225 targets in the passing game, resulting in 176 catches for 1402 yards and 7 receiving touchdowns. Combined that is 3779 yards and 22 touchdowns over 2 seasons. With Forsett showing that he can catch passes, this leaves his ceiling very high in PPR formats.

The Ravens schedule on first look, seemed to be a somewhat difficult one, opening the season with 3 of 4 on the road. But when you look at last seasons defensive rankings against the run for their opponents it doesn't look so bad. Opening the year at Denver is not a Positive thing for Forsett and the Ravens, but it gets better after that. For the season they will only face 4 top 10 ranked run defenses in 2015, and San Francisco is suspect given all their losses on the defensive side of the ball. The average rank of run defenses they will face in the upcoming season is 19, in the bottom half of the rankings.

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Forsett should have good value. Fantasy Pros has Forsett ranked 35 overall, and running back 16. In the MFL 10 and 25's he is going at 33 overall, and has an ADP of 35.13. This should make him a late third or early 4th round selection for you in your redraft leagues. Such great value for a guy allows you to take either a top tier running back in round 1, and by the time you get to the early fourth round you could have a top back and 2 top wide receivers, using Forsett to back fill your starting skill position players with a high ceiling guy.

Waiver Wire Playoff Edition Week 14

Welcome to the playoffs. If you are still reading this, I assume you made it. Congrats. If you didn't make it and are still reading, you are just as sick as me. Not a lot to love on the waiver wire this week, but a few gambles if you are in bad shape. Let's take a look.

RB

Daniel Herron (IND) is the best healthy running back in Indy. The Colts didn't run a lot last week, but the best back on the field was definitely Herron. Going 8 for 88 and a touchdown and adding 2 catches, Herron is a solid addition to those who have lost their running back in the past few weeks with some starters going down.

Marion Grice (ARI) is a throw of a dart at who will get the touches in Arizona if Andre Ellington is out this week with a hip pointer. Grice got the most work after Ellington went down, but at this point I don't really want anything to do with any part of the Cardinals offense. Grice is a super desperation addition this week as the role of all is not clear. The Cards had recently added Michael Bush to their roster as well, but he had been out of football before getting signed. Proceed with caution with any Arizona running back not named Andre.

WR

Robert Woods (BUF) has been a consistent performer for the Bills over the past few weeks. In week 13 Woods had 4 catches for 71 yards, and in week 12 Woods had 9 catches for 118 yards and a score. The Bills face the Denver Broncos this week, and if Aqib Talib is out again, it might be a good game for the Bills through the air. Denver has allowed 24 touchdowns through the air this season. If you are in need, Woods is a decent addition.

Davante Adams (GB) had himself a game against the Patriots in week 13. Catching 6 balls for 121 yards, Adams was a good performer for the Pack. This week the Packers face the Atlanta Falcons and their worst ranked pass defense on Monday night. There should be plenty of yardage to go around. Adams is a good addition if you need some help at receiver.

Donte Moncrief (IND) has been used sparingly this season, but at some point the Colts have to realize the explosiveness that Moncrief adds to their lineup. In his biggest games this season, Moncrief has had over 100 yards and has scored 3 touchdowns. His production has been off and on, but when he is given a shot he has shown big play ability. Facing Cleveland this week, if the Colts put him on the field, he could have a big day against the second or third corner for the Browns. Moncrief is a gamble, but can provide huge dividends if he hits for you.

QB

Johnny Manziel (CLE) got his first real NFL action last week, and early this week it seems like he might get his first start against the Colts this week. I wouldn't look forward to starting him in a 10 or 12 team league, but in a 2 quarterback or keeper format he should now be rostered. I don't like the idea of a rookie passer, but Johnny Football has the ability to run, including a rushing touchdown last week. 

Waiver Wire Week 13

The last week before many of you will be entering the playoffs, if you have made it that far. Not a ton of activity for the waiver wire this week, but here is the list of players who may help you going forward.

Running Back 

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Latavius Murray (OAK) had only 4 touches last week before being sidelined with a concussion, but he had monster numbers with them. Rushing for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns, it seems that once healthy, Murray will see more touches for the Raiders and could likely help a running back poor team out.

Daniel Herron (IND) has taken the place of Ahmad Bradshaw in the Colts backfield, and actually had more touches than Trent Richardson last week. The Colts have a good schedule moving forward, and Herron is likely to continue with at least his current workload. Definitely worth an add if you need running back health.

Image source: sportsworldreport.com

LeGarrett Blount (NE) came right in and scored twice for the Patriots last

week. I am always skeptical of the running back situation in New England, but with Jonas Gray putting himself in the dog house by being late to practice, Blount might be the ground guy moving forward. I think Blount is a risky player, but if you are desperate, you could do worse.

Wide Receiver 

Jarvis Landry (MIA) has 49 catches on the season for the Dolphins, and is averaging almost 50 yards per game over his last 4 games. In a PPR league, Landry is a solid play moving forward and has a decent schedule including games against the Jets in week 13, and Baltimore in week 14. Landry is a flex option for you the rest of the season.

Charles Johnson (MIN) has earned himself some consideration and more playing time in the

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Vikings offense. The next 2 weeks of the schedule are looking good for the Vikings passing game, facing Carolina and the Jets in week 13 and 14, and if your playoffs go through week 17, Chicago is a tasty match up. Johnson had 52 yards and a score last week, and 87 yards on 6 catches in his last two games. Johnson would make a decent flex play with his newly increased role.

Tight End 

Kyle Rudolph (MIN) is back, and actually caught some passes last week. With the previously mentioned good match ups for the Vikings, it seems likely that Rudolph will be a productive player in the black hole that has been much of the tight end position this season. If you have either an under performing or injured tight end, Rudolph should be a suitable replacement for you.

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Tim Wright (NE) has had sporadic production this season, but in a world where the tight end position has been hit and miss altogether this season, you could do worse than Wright. The red zone offense of the Patriots has featured Wright for multiple short yardage scores this season, and with some tough match ups ahead, Wright might find himself scoring again at an end zone near you. If I were in a desperate situation, Wright would be on my list of high risk players that may also have a high reward.

My final suggestion this week will be on the defensive front. For those who have been streaming defenses this season, I highly recommend carrying 2 defenses at this point in the year. Take a look at the defenses that are available in your leagues and find one or two that have decent match ups the rest of the season. I would cut a 5th receiver or non stud running back that you are never playing and line up your defensive needs for the rest of the year.

If you have clinched your playoff spot already, congrats. If not, good luck this week locking up that post season berth.

Match Up Monsters And Misses

Week 12 of the NFL season is already upon us. Seems like just yesterday I was mock drafting around the clock to try to get a feel for the draft value for different players. I blinked, and we are merely weeks away from the end of many peoples seasons, and the tourney to crown a champion for others. Let's take a look at the good and bad match ups for this weeks NFL action.

Match Up Monsters

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The Cleveland Browns are likely to go through one of the biggest late season transformations of any team in the league. The addition of Josh Gordon back to the receiving corps for the Browns is primed to completely change the Cleveland offense. Gordon has been a prolific pass catcher in the past, and as long as he can be in somewhat game ready shape this week, he figures to have a soft landing spot this week. The Browns face the last ranked pass defense of the Atlanta Falcons this week. Atlanta allows 281.2 yards per game through the air, and Josh Gordon and Andrew Hawkins factor to catch a lot of passes in an offense that threw the ball 50 times last week.

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Kansas City Chiefs running backs Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis have a great match up on

Thursday this week against the Oakland Raiders. Oakland is allowing 129.8 yards per game on the ground with their 27th ranked run defense. Keeping with the tradition of Thursday night games being great for running plays right into the strength of the Chiefs offense. Charles is always a must start guy, but Davis could see some work as well if the Chiefs get out to a lead, and in spelling Charles.

 Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts wide receivers will likely be out for blood this week after getting trounced last week by the Patriots. Bad news for the Jaguars and their 26th ranked pass defense. Allowing 261.9 yards per game, and 18 touchdowns through the air, the Colts will likely take it to the Jags porous defense. Look for lots of big numbers for the likes of the Colts pass attack.

DeMarco Murray and the Dallas Cowboys running backs should be licking their chops at their match up this week. Facing the worst ranked run defense of the New York Giants who allow 145 yards per game and 13 rushing touchdowns on the season. The Giants were gashed by the Seahawks two weeks ago, and last week gave up 5 yards per carry to Frank Gore last week. Look for Murray and maybe even Joseph Randle to get some quality points for your fantasy teams this week.

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I've been down on the Chicago Bears offense the last few weeks, and will admit being mostly wrong last week. This week I see a big week ahead for the Bears against the 30th ranked pass defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has given up 20 touchdowns through the air this season, and 266.1 yards per game. This should be a game that Jay Cutler can get right in, and light up the scoreboards in your fantasy leagues with Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, and maybe even some Martellus Bennett. The bears offense is a full go for me.

Match Up Misses 

The New York Jets offense has been a mess this season, and I don't see it getting better this week against the Buffalo Bills defense. Ranked 9th against the run, allowing 99 yards per game and only 5 rushing touchdowns on the season against the pass, it seems like it might be a long day for Chris Johnson and Chris Ivory. The receivers for the Jets might not fare much better against the 7th ranked pass defense the Bills are sporting. Only allowing 222.6 yards per game and 14 touchdowns to 12 interceptions on the season, the Bills run a formidable defense out every week. If you have been playing the Jets offense, I can't say that I see much to like this week.

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Speaking of a mess, Washington is a hot one. Robert Griffin III was a good college quarterback. Yes, College. In the NFL he is well on his way to being a bust. This doesn't lead to good things for those surrounding him on the offense. This week I expect tough sledding for the Washington running game, namely Alfred Morris. The opponent, the San Francisco 49ers, sports the 6th ranked pass defense in the NFL at 88.6 yards per game and 5 scores on the season. I fully expect the 49ers to stack the box and force RG3 to beat them, and I don't think he can. Alf would likely not be a guy making my starting lineup this week if I had any shares of him.

The injury to Carson Palmer seems to be a bad omen for the Arizona Cardinals offense. Yes, they did face a touch match up last week against the Detroit Lions, but they managed only 2 early touchdowns and held on for dear life shutting down the Lions offense.  This week they will be led into Seattle by Drew Stanton in his second start since Palmer went down. Add to that a grade 2 MCL tear for Larry Fitzgerald, and facing the 3rd ranked pass defense of the Seahawks, and it smells like a recipe for disaster. The Cardinals will likely find a better chance at using Andre Ellington in the run game to try to beat Seattle the same way that the Chiefs did last week. I am sitting my Cardinals wide outs this week.

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The New Orleans Saints running backs, be it Mark Ingram alone, or along with any of the rest of the compliment, has a tough game ahead of them against the 5th ranked run defense of the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens only allow 84.5 yards per contest on the ground, and have only given up 6 rushing touchdowns on the season. This does not bode well for Ingram, who managed only 67 yards on 23 carries last week against the Bengals at home. At the time of this writing the status of the other backs for the Saints is not known for week 12, but I can't say I am a fan of starting any of them this week.

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The New England Patriots rushing attack was fantastic last week. This

week however they face a top ranked run defense in the Detroit Lions that allows 68.8 yards per game, and has given up only 4 rushing touchdowns on the season. On top of those dismal stats for the Patriots there is usually no consistency to their game plans from week to week, and it wouldn't shock me if Jonas Gray was used very little. It is hard to say if Shane Vereen will be used much as a receiver out of the backfield, but if I was forced to start a Patriots running back this week, Vereen would likely be the one. The Lions have a stout defense, and relying on Gray is not on my to do list this week.

And so ends another match up monsters here in week 12. Some great games await us this weekend, and I hope that these takes on the match ups upcoming provide you with some insight into what may be in the future of your fantasy teams. Start that ideal line up this week and lets hit that playoff push hard together. Good luck this week!

Waiver Wire Week 12

At this point in the season, teams that are pushing toward the fantasy playoffs should be fairly well set. As is such, the waiver wire pickups that are made from now moving forward will most likely be defensive ones, or to get players to fill in for guys who get injured. This week there were some important players going down with injuries. Let's take a look at the guys you might need to pick up this week.

TE

Julius Thomas and Dwayne Allen both went out with ankle injuries in week 11, and the entirety of the tight end position has been pretty scarce outside a few outliers this season. Here are a few guys you can look to use to replace these guys if they miss any real time.

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Jacob Tamme (DEN) is a solid addition if you have a tight end need if Julius Thomas is out. Tamme knows the offense, and he is familiar with Peyton. I can't tell you that he is going to be Julius, but he has shown the ability to catch passes and score in the past.

Coby Fleener (IND) had a monster game against the Patriots on Sunday night in a losing effort. Assuming that Dwayne Allen misses any time, look for Fleener to be able to see good production on what should be a pass heavy offense and a good schedule for the rest of the season.

Image source: blog.redskins.com

Niles Paul (WAS) could also see an increase in targets and production with the possibility of Jordan

Reed out for any significant time. Reed can't seem to stay healthy, and in his absence earlier this season, Paul was a good fantasy option.

Kyle Rudolph (MIN) was a disappointment in his first game back since his early season injury, but should hopefully see some targets and production in the coming weeks. One issue with the Minnesota offense is that it is a mess. Teddy Bridgewater is having a hard time getting positive results, and that may hamper the ability of Rudolph to score for you.

Garrett Graham (HOU) is a guy to think about. With a change in quarterback to Ryan Mallett in week 11, Graham found his way to the end zone and his highest fantasy score this season. While he only had 2 catches, if he proves to be a trusted asset for Mallett, he could see an uptick in production.

RB 

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CJ Anderson (DEN) is a player that gained huge relevance after Sundays games. With Ronnie Hillman now possibly out for up to 6 weeks, and Montee Ball re-injuring his groin in his first game back, it seems that Anderson might be the guy the rest of the season for the Broncos. CJ didn't do much on the ground in a game where the Broncos were trailing early, but he was big in the passing game with 8 catches for 86 yards. If the other players in your league didn't pick him up in week 11, punish them for this transgression in week 12.

Juwan Thompson (DEN) is now the likely handcuff for the Broncos assuming that they don't sign another back this week. Thompson has been getting some goal line work in recent weeks, and is a solid pass blocker. If you have CJ Anderson, Thompson is a must add this week.

Ryan Mathews (SD) was back this week, and had a healthy workload. Moving forward look for Mathews to be the feature back for the Chargers down the stretch. In the same situation last season, Mathews proved to be up to the challenge. If he is still floating on your wire, pick him up.

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Alfred Blue (HOU) had a huge game in week 11 with Arian Foster out. Carrying the ball 36 times

for 156 yards, Blue proved an adequate replacement in the Houston offense. If Foster misses more time, Blue is a viable option to help out a struggling running back situation for your fantasy team.

Trent Richardson (IND) might be a desperation add for a team who has lost a running back or just needs a guy that is likely to get work. Ahmad Bradshaw left the game on Sunday night for the Colts, and was in a boot and on crutches after the game. These are not good things for a guy with a history of foot issues. I can't tell you Richardson is too impressive as an NFL running back, but if the alternative is nothing, he's probably better than that.

WR 

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Josh Gordon (CLE) is back in week 12. And Brian Hoyer was chucking the ball all over the field in week 11. Throwing the ball 50 times in week 11, look for Gordon to see plenty of targets for a Cleveland team that will welcome him back and look to push toward the playoffs.

Andrew Hawkins (CLE) is a PPR machine. And with Josh Gordon returning, Hawkins will likely have some more space to work in. Hawkins is only owned in 45% of ESPN leagues, and can give you a PPR boost to get you to the mountain top that is your playoffs.

Kenny Britt (STL) is a name you might want to look at. I am not a fan of him, but he is the guy for the Rams, and I use this same logic with why to love Kelvin Benjamin. I would only suggest to add Britt if you have no other options, as the Rams will be playing some tough defenses in the remainder of the season. Proceed with caution and at your own risk.

QB 

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Ryan Mallett (HOU) had a decent debut for the Texans. Mallett had 211 yards and 2 touchdown passes for the Texans, and an interception that was on a tipped ball in the end zone. A fantastic remaining schedule remains for Houston, with match ups against the Bengals, Titans, Jaguars, Colts, Ravens, and Jaguars again to end the season. Not a whole lot to be scared of there, except the fact that Mallett has 1 start.

Brian Hoyer (CLE) is a guy to look at if you are stuck at

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quarterback. If we believe that Josh Gordon and Andrew Hawkins will both remain productive wide receivers for the rest of the season, it seems to make sense that the guy throwing them the ball will also be putting up some decent numbers. Good match ups remain for the Cleveland passing attack the rest of the season featuring: Atlanta, Buffalo, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Carolina, and Baltimore to close out the season. Hoyer is a good addition to a 2 quarterback league, or as slight gamble for a team with an under performing signal caller.

All the players on this list are either plug in now or handcuff options that can give you the stability and depth to help you surge the last few weeks to make a run for your championship. Make good choices and good luck this week!

Monster Match Ups And Misses Week 11

The week 11 match up monsters and misses features some surprising teams and position groups. Let's take a peek into the good and bad match ups for the 11th week of the NFL season.

The Good 

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The Carolina Panthers have a great match up this week for their wide receivers and tight ends against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons pass defense has been pretty terrible this season allowing 280.8 yards per game to opposing receivers. Look for huge games out of Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olson in week 11. Also Cam Newton will be a benefactor of the soft passing defense, and should be a good start if he is floating around on your waiver wire.

Houston Texans running back, whether it be Arian Foster, or Alfred Blue if Foster is out, should have a good game against the Cleveland Browns running defense. Cleveland has allowed 134.2 yards per game on the ground to opposing running backs on the season, and the Texans are a run first team. Keep an eye on the injury and practice reports this week to see if Foster plays if you are a Blue owner. Both guys might be a good play if both are healthy and play, but Blue moves way up the ranks if Foster is out.

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The Minnesota Vikings wide outs have a monster opportunity to take advantage of a reeling Chicago Bears defense that was throttled by the Green Bay Packers last week. Look for Teddy Bridgewater to have the best game of his young career in week 11. Greg Jennings and Cordarelle Patterson are good starts this week in my opinion, as the bears have allowed 268.6 yards per game and a whopping 23 receiving touchdowns so far this season. Look for Kyle Rudolph to get back into practice this week, and if he does, you may consider playing him as well this week.

San Francisco 49ers running backs are primed for success this week against a New York Giants defense that gave up 350 yards on the ground in week 10 to the Seattle Seahawks. The Giants are now the worst ranked run defense in the league allowing 144.7 yards per game on the ground, and 13 rushing touchdowns on the season. Look for Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde to feast upon the corpse of the Giants Defense. Gore is a must start, and Hyde has been getting goal line work as of late, and could be a flex start in a pinch.

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The Philadelphia Eagles running backs have a good match up against the 30th ranked run defense of

the Green Bay Packers in week 11. Green Bay has been allowing 142.6 yards per game on the ground this season, and 9 rushing scores on the year. It also figures that the Eagles may want to try to play a little ball control against the prolific offense of the Packers. Look for LeSean McCoy to provide you some fantasy performance in this week 11 match up.

The Bad

The Buffalo Bills wide outs have a monumental task ahead of them in week 11. Not only do they have a short week, playing on Thursday night, but they also face off against the 2nd ranked pass defense of the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins have only allowed 210.8 yards per game through the air on the season, and Thursday night games have historically proved to be a bad influence on the passing game of its participants. On top of all of this, Sammy Watkins has a groin injury that left him questionable and largely ineffective last week. If you have better options than the Bills wide receivers this week, sit your Bills.

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Miami Dolphins running backs have a similar plight to the Bills this week. Injury and bad match ups leave me not wanting anything to do with the Dolphins running game this week. Lamar Miller has a sprained AC joint which saw him limited to only 5 touches last week. On a short week it is unlikely that he will be in much better shape this week. The choices behind Miller are not particularly good either. A rookie in Damien Williams and Daniel Thomas would not make me feel very good about my squad if that is who I were running out there. Sit your Dolphins running backs this week.

Tre Mason and the St. Louis Rams running game have a tough draw this week against the top ranked run defense of the Denver Broncos. Denver is only allowing 67 yards per game and only 5 rushing scores on the season. Along with that bad stat for the Rams, it seems likely that the Rams will fall behind, and the running game will become a forgotten thing early in this game. I can't think of a reason I would want to start a Rams running back this week against the Broncos.

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The wide receivers of the Houston Texans have a touch draw this week against the 12th ranked pass defense of the Cleveland Browns. The Browns made Andy Dalton and the Bengals passing game look pedestrian last week. That and the fact that Cleveland has been bad against the run, and Houston runs a lot leave me wanting to sit my Houston wide outs this week against the Browns. The ascension of Ryan Mallett to starter also leaves us with a question as to how the Texans pass game will look. Mallett is unproven as a starter, and I am not willing to gamble on him if my team needs a win this week.

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The Chicago Bears dysfunctional passing game has another tough draw this week against the Minnesota Vikings and their 4th ranked pass defense. Allowing only 213.6 yards per game through the air, Minnesota has been stingy for opposing wide receivers. Brandon Marshall has an injury that at the time of this writing, looks like it may keep him out or limit him. That would leave the Bears with a one dimensional passing attack with Alshon Jeffery as the only down field threat for the corners of the Vikings to worry about. In addition, Jay Cutler has been playing a pretty terrible brand of football as of late, and seems to be severely lacking in confidence. I don't really want to run my Bears passing game out there this week if I have better match ups.

That brings us to the end of our monster match ups and misses for week 11. Some teams not often thought of in the good match ups this week, and a few teams that find themselves with some touch match ups for sure. Hopefully this will help you make educated decisions to get yourself a big late season fantasy win. Good luck this week!