Reggie Bush 2015 outlook

Reggie Bush has found his way to his fourth team in his NFL career. Starting out in New Orleans, and arguably being misused in their offense, Bush moved on to Miami for two fairly productive seasons. Following Miami, Bush spent two seasons in Detroit, last season hampered by injuries. And finally in 2015 Bush will find himself in with the San Francisco 49ers. Likely his last stop entering his 10^th season in the NFL, Bush is set up for success as long as he can stay healthy.

Image source: 49ers.com

Bush has not been the model of efficiency 

using the consistency report from Bob Lung. With 24 quality games out of 41 in his last three seasons, Bush has been a 59% consistent player. He has played well against bad defenses with a 100% consistent performance on the road, and 71% at home. Bush scored well at home against middle ranked defense at 60% consistent, but bad on the road against this tier with no quality games. Surprisingly against good defenses Bush is more consistent on the road than at home.

The way I am looking at the 49ers schedule and Bush for the 2015 season is in respect to passing downs. The attrition that the 49ers faced this offseason leaves the cupboard bare on defense, and I believe they will be a shell of their former selves. This leads me to believe that they will be trailing a fair amount this season and will be throwing a lot. This is where we see the value in Bush. He will likely be inheriting the passing downs work, and if San Francisco is behind, a lot of downs will be passing downs.

In regards to defenses they will face this season, the passing defenses are the softer spot for San Francisco. They face an average pass defense of 17.87, the 10^th best. They face five Top 10 pass defenses from a season ago. Compare this to the 23^rd ranked run defense schedule at an average rank of 14.93 and five Top 10 run defenses. With the mess the 49ers will probably be on defense, and difficult run defense schedule, I can see them spending a lot of time trying to catch up by passing.

San Francisco plays in one of the toughest divisions in football. The defenses they face in Seattle, St. Louis, and Arizona are no joke. They all sport tough, hard hitting defenses. The worst rank any divisional foe had in run defense was 14 last season. The Cardinals and rams were ranked worse in pass than run last season, meaning that the vulnerability they did show favors Bush.

Additionally, the bye week for the 49ers is a late one this season. Week 10 is when San Francisco will be taking a week off. If Bush hit, you can plug him into a flex spot in the lineup for a long duration of the Fantasy season.

The big caveat for Bush will be staying healthy.

He is not a young man anymore with respect to being a running back. Entering his 10^th season in the NFL, health will be the big concern for Bush. He has missed 7 games the last two seasons, and was not particularly effective last season. In 2014 he only had about 550 yards from scrimmage and two scores. The positive in the respect is his average draft position. He amounts to a lottery ticket for Fantasy owners this year. The current average draft position for Reggie is 120 according to fantasypros.com. This means that in a 12 team league he is a pick at the 10^th and 11^th round turn. By this point in the draft he makes perfect sense as a guy with some upside after you have your starting core established.

With all the signs in San Francisco pointing towards them pushing the reset button 

on the team and cleaning house, Reggie Bush might be the diamond in the rough that can help your fantasy team in the 2015 season. If he can stay healthy, and San Francisco plays as bad on defense as it looks like they will, Bush has a big chance to see a lot of playing time. For a 10 or 11 Bush can be the lottery ticket that helps Fantasy owners bring home a championship.

Danny Woodhead 2015 Late Round Running Back

Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego Chargers

is back this season after breaking his leg in September of the 2014 season. Woodhead was a big part of the chargers offense in the 2013 season. A sneaky value play that season, Woodhead is on my list of late round value guys you can look to plug in as a platoon at your running back or flex spots this season.

Image source: nypost.com

Taking a look at the Average Draft Position (ADP) to find value players to take in a PPR league is a good preseason practice. Sure leagues might play out a little differently, but overall I have found that the values are pretty similar. Some of that can be attributed to the rankings on a  league site influencing the players that show available at the nearby picks. So knowing the players and where they tend to go in drafts gives owners a head start over their opponents in draft strategy.

This is where we find Woodhead. With an ADP of 107 according to fantasypros.com PPR rankings, Woodhead is a good addition to a Fantasy team for a multitude of purposes. He can be used as a bye week fill in for the RB2 or flex positions. If  punting on the RB2 spot in favor of either a heavy early wide receiver draft, or take an elite quarterback or tight end in the early rounds, then Woodhead can be immensely valuable.

Taking a look at his 2013 numbers with the Chargers, 

we find that Woodhead was a very productive guy in PPR formats. He had over 1000 yards combined, 429 rushing and 605 receiving. Along with his solid yardage statistics, Woodhead also scored eight total touchdowns during the 2013 season, two rushing and six receiving. He made his hay in long yardage situations and in the red zone. On plays where the Chargers had 10 or more yards to go, Woodhead gained 625 of his yards. In the red zone he had 18 rushes, scoring on two of those. But his big key to the red zone offense for San Diego was his receiving in the red zone. In 2013 he caught 19 passes in the red zone, scoring on five of them. That is excellent efficiency, scoring on about one of every four red zone passes he caught.

The schedule for the Chargers breaks in two completely different directions. The run defenses they will face are by far better than the pass defenses. The average run defense the Chargers will face is 17.68, the ninth easiest schedule in the league. They will only face five Top 10 run defenses. The pass defenses on the slate this season are much harder. The schedule is ranked 27^th overall, with an average of 13.75. Eight Top 10 pass defenses from last season await them. Traditionally Woodhead has played well against lower ranked defenses.

The season opens with a tough game at home against Detroit, the top run defense last year, and 13^th against the pass, but it gets better from there. After Week 1, the Chargers face bottom half run defenses in five of the next six games. Fantasy playoff time finds the schedule breaking very well for the Chargers running game. In Week 14 the Chiefs stout pass defense and 28^th ranked run defense host San Diego. Week 15 finds the Chargers hosting the long traveling, pass defending, and 24^th ranked run defending Miami Dolphins. In many leagues championship games, the Chargers travel to Oakland and face their 22^nd ranked run defense and 16^th ranked pass defense. If the playoffs play to Week 17, a difficult divisional road match up awaits the Chargers in Denver. Denver sported the number two run defense and the number nine pass defense a year ago.

With the fact that Woodhead is returning from an injury

Fantasy players will definitely want to keep an eye on him in training camp and preseason games to make sure that he is healthy and still able to play. The Chargers also drafted Melvin Gordon, a solid pass catching back, who may be able to keep Woodhead at bay if he can pass block well. Branden Oliver showed well as the Chargers running back last year in the absence of Woodhead for a few games, so his usage and position on the depth chart should also be monitored.

A possible boon for Woodhead might be found in the suspension of Antonio Gates. With gates out for the first four games of the season, San Diego will be without one of their red zone targets. This may serve to boost the usage of Woodhead in the red zone, leaving his Fantasy owners to reap the benefits.

If Woodhead can win his spot back as the long yardage, third down, and red zone back for San Diego, he might be a player that can help fantasy owners win a championship in the 2015 season. His late round ADP makes him an easily attainable resource for any team. 

Forsett It, And Forget It

The 2014 season had some surprising characters come to the forefront of the NFL story. In the wake of the Ray Rice scandal that rocked both the league, and the Baltimore Ravens, Justin Forsett is one of those characters. That combined with a few other factors make him a guy I want on my teams in 2015.

Image source: justinforsett.sportsblog.com

Forsett racked up 235 carries during the 2014 season, turning them into 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on the ground. That made him the 5th ranked back in yards. He added 44 receptions for 263 yards to his solid rushing totals. Using Bob Lung's quality game consistency stats, www.ffconsistency.com, Forsett had 81% consistency rating, good for a tie for 7th with Marshawn Lynch.

This off season the Ravens have added Mark Trestman as their offensive coordinator. Trestman is

Image source: baltimoresun.com

generally thought of as an offensive genius, and for the last few seasons was the mastermind behind the Chicago Bears offense. What the Bears, and more specifically Matt Forte, did at the running back position leads to much excitement for me. Over the Trestman years in Chicago, Forte was a PPR juggernaut. During the 2013 and 2014 seasons Forte had 2377 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. Add to that 225 targets in the passing game, resulting in 176 catches for 1402 yards and 7 receiving touchdowns. Combined that is 3779 yards and 22 touchdowns over 2 seasons. With Forsett showing that he can catch passes, this leaves his ceiling very high in PPR formats.

The Ravens schedule on first look, seemed to be a somewhat difficult one, opening the season with 3 of 4 on the road. But when you look at last seasons defensive rankings against the run for their opponents it doesn't look so bad. Opening the year at Denver is not a Positive thing for Forsett and the Ravens, but it gets better after that. For the season they will only face 4 top 10 ranked run defenses in 2015, and San Francisco is suspect given all their losses on the defensive side of the ball. The average rank of run defenses they will face in the upcoming season is 19, in the bottom half of the rankings.

Image source: baltimoresportsandlife.com

Forsett should have good value. Fantasy Pros has Forsett ranked 35 overall, and running back 16. In the MFL 10 and 25's he is going at 33 overall, and has an ADP of 35.13. This should make him a late third or early 4th round selection for you in your redraft leagues. Such great value for a guy allows you to take either a top tier running back in round 1, and by the time you get to the early fourth round you could have a top back and 2 top wide receivers, using Forsett to back fill your starting skill position players with a high ceiling guy.