Forsett It, And Forget It

The 2014 season had some surprising characters come to the forefront of the NFL story. In the wake of the Ray Rice scandal that rocked both the league, and the Baltimore Ravens, Justin Forsett is one of those characters. That combined with a few other factors make him a guy I want on my teams in 2015.

Image source: justinforsett.sportsblog.com

Forsett racked up 235 carries during the 2014 season, turning them into 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on the ground. That made him the 5th ranked back in yards. He added 44 receptions for 263 yards to his solid rushing totals. Using Bob Lung's quality game consistency stats, www.ffconsistency.com, Forsett had 81% consistency rating, good for a tie for 7th with Marshawn Lynch.

This off season the Ravens have added Mark Trestman as their offensive coordinator. Trestman is

Image source: baltimoresun.com

generally thought of as an offensive genius, and for the last few seasons was the mastermind behind the Chicago Bears offense. What the Bears, and more specifically Matt Forte, did at the running back position leads to much excitement for me. Over the Trestman years in Chicago, Forte was a PPR juggernaut. During the 2013 and 2014 seasons Forte had 2377 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. Add to that 225 targets in the passing game, resulting in 176 catches for 1402 yards and 7 receiving touchdowns. Combined that is 3779 yards and 22 touchdowns over 2 seasons. With Forsett showing that he can catch passes, this leaves his ceiling very high in PPR formats.

The Ravens schedule on first look, seemed to be a somewhat difficult one, opening the season with 3 of 4 on the road. But when you look at last seasons defensive rankings against the run for their opponents it doesn't look so bad. Opening the year at Denver is not a Positive thing for Forsett and the Ravens, but it gets better after that. For the season they will only face 4 top 10 ranked run defenses in 2015, and San Francisco is suspect given all their losses on the defensive side of the ball. The average rank of run defenses they will face in the upcoming season is 19, in the bottom half of the rankings.

Image source: baltimoresportsandlife.com

Forsett should have good value. Fantasy Pros has Forsett ranked 35 overall, and running back 16. In the MFL 10 and 25's he is going at 33 overall, and has an ADP of 35.13. This should make him a late third or early 4th round selection for you in your redraft leagues. Such great value for a guy allows you to take either a top tier running back in round 1, and by the time you get to the early fourth round you could have a top back and 2 top wide receivers, using Forsett to back fill your starting skill position players with a high ceiling guy.

The Resurgence of Steve Smith

 Steve Smith has been in the NFL for quite a long time. He played for the Panthers from 2001-2013. This year signing with the Ravens as a free agent. It seems that his new team is allowing him an opportunity to shine once again as a fantasy receiver.

Image source thebaltimorewire.com

After posting his worst numbers since 2010 last year in the Panthers offense, making 64 catches on 110 targets for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns, Smith is having a resurgent year in his first season in Baltimore. Through his first three games in 2014 he has 18 catches on 32 targets for 290 yards and a touchdown. His yards per catch is tied for the third highest in his career so far this season at 16.1, and his yards per game are also the third highest in his career at 96.7.

Smith had an average draft position on ESPN fantasy football of 111. This being the case, he would be someone to target in a trade for either another wide receiver, a mid level running back, or a tight end if his current fantasy team needs some help at that position. His upcoming schedule has some very nice match ups with the likes of the Panthers in week 4, Colts in week 5, Bucs in week 6, and Falcons in week 7. Having a late bye in week 11 is a positive as well. If you trade for him now, you would get 8 serviceable weeks before having to take him out of your lineup for his bye.

The schedule also sets up nicely for smith as the fantasy playoffs begin. The Ravens play the Dolphins in week 14 who have given up 5 passing touchdowns through the first 3 weeks of the season. In week 15 they play Jacksonville who are dead last in passing defense in the league.

Smith would make a nice addition as a wide receiver 2 or flex to a team who is not happy with their current wide receiver situation, with some serious playoff upside.