Trade Targets: CJ Anderson

Well we are about two weeks into the NFL season. As I sit writing this, we all are awaiting kickoff between the Giants and Redskins for week three. Some narratives have come true, some look false. The time has come to wade through these and find the diamonds in the rough that have just gotten off to a rough start.

Last season I wrote an article about Eddie Lacy after the first three weeks of the season. He faced off against three top five defenses to start his season, and was seen to be underperforming. But the reality was, those defenses he faced were good. It was a brutal start to the year. And if you found an owner willing to trade you Lacy, you got a great performance from him the rest of the way. The deal I made was trading Alshon Jeffery for Eddie Lacy straight up. Jeffery was my WR4, and I could afford the deal.

Image source: denverpost.com

So after two weeks of the season, who is a guy that we can take a look at buying low on? 

Who has a favorable schedule moving forward? When should we pounce? Let’s take a look at all these factors together now.

CJ Anderson, RB, Denver has been a major disappointment. I was in love with the narrative for the Denver offense this season. Aging quarterback, stud tight end gone, and new coach who wants to run the ball a lot, what’s not to love. Add to that a defense that can hold their opponents down and make the strategy work. It all sounds so great.

Then, reality sets in.

 Anderson hurts his toe in game one. Peyton looks terrible in the Kubiak offense. He can’t run and looks every bit of his age. The offensive line looks like they can’t block at all. Through two weeks of the season Anderson has 56 yards on 24 carries and five catches for 21 yards. Not good numbers. Is there any good news? Well in Week 1 they played Baltimore in a defensive brawl. Baltimore has been a tough defense against the run.  Kansas City in week two proved a tough match up for the Broncos all around. But in a tale of two halves the Broncos were able to move the ball later in the game, and CJ was the back on the field.

So what does the upcoming schedule hold for CJ and the Broncos? Well before the season I would have told you that the Broncos face a fairly tough start, but also have a Top 5 run schedule this year. Kansas City was an outlier based on their stats from last year, but the next opponent for the Broncos is the Lions, and without Deandre Levy and Ndamukong Suh plugging up the middle, the Lions have not been that strong against the run in their first two games.

After that game the schedule really opens up for the Broncos on the ground. The next seven games are against teams that were in the bottom half of yards allowed on the ground last season. The Patriots are the eighth game out after the Lions, and one of only two more Top 10 run defenses from last season. The Fantasy playoff run consists of games against the Raiders, Steelers, and Bengals for weeks 14-16.

I am recommending taking a shot at trading for CJ Anderson in your leagues. 

If you have a surplus of wide receivers on your bench, you might be able to give your fourth or fifth best wide receiver to a team that is likely in need of an infusion of points. If you are running back heavy, you might be able to move one of them for Anderson.

Basically I see the tide turning for Anderson. If the offensive line can gel, and Kubiak and Manning can find a common ground to run an offense that can succeed, Anderson can truly be a diamond in the rough for your fantasy team. Take a run at his owner and see what you can make happen. Bargain shopping in week 2 can make you a champion.

Monster Match Ups And Misses Week 8

Week 8 has some huge games that offer up some monster match ups for your fantasy week. On the flip side of that, there are some games that offer up bad match ups for both receivers and running backs on your teams. Let's take a look at this weeks monsters and misses.

The Good

Image source detroitlions.com

Detroit Lions have a great match up this week against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have the 27th ranked run defense in the league allowing 137.7 rushing yards per game and 13 rushing touchdowns so far this season. With Reggie Bush and Theo Riddick both being banged up, it might be a great week for Joique Bell this week in London. Along with the bad run defense the Falcons have the 29th ranked pass defense in the league. Allowing 274.4 yards and 8 touchdowns through the air this year, Golden Tate should find himself some good stats this week. Early rumors say that it is possible that Calvin Johnson will play this week, but keep an eye out for practice report updates this week. Being that this game is in London, the start time is early for both east and west coast fantasy players. If Johnson practices this week, you can expect him to play and plug him in your lineup.

The

In week 8 the Seattle Seahawks face off against the once menacing defense of the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers rank 26th against the run, allowing 137.6 yards per game and 8 touchdowns on the season on the ground. Ranking 22nd against the pass, they allow 250.7 yards per game and 15 touchdowns. I look for the Seahawks to recommit to the run this week with Marshawn Lynch. On top of that, it could be a coming out party for Paul Richardson this week against the porous Carolina secondary. Start your Seahwaks, and don't leave Richardson on your waiver wire for the future.

Image source zimbio.com

The Minnesota Vikings have a great match up against the run defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs allow 128.3 yards per game with their 25th ranked run defense. Jerick McKinnon seems to have finally passed Matt Asiata to be the starter and feature back for the Vikings. With 30 rushes for 143 yards the past 2 weeks for the Vikes, McKinnon has had the lions share of the rushes for the Vikings. He is a must start this week against the Bucs.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers wide receivers have to be licking their chops with their match up this week at the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have the 28th ranked pass defense, allowing 270.5 yards per game and have given up 11 touchdowns while only having 3 interceptions. Look for the great offense of the Packers to feast on the Saints defense early and often.

The Philadelphia Eagles square off against the 31st ranked pass defense of the Arizona Cardinals. Allowing 284.8 yards per game, the pass heavy offense of the Eagles should be able to find some success against the Cards. Look for Jeremy Maclin to have a good game, but the sleeper to watch is Jordan Matthews. Look for him to have a breakout game this week. I would expect to see Patrick Peterson on Jeremy Maclin a lot, leaving Mathews in a good spot to score for you.

Image source sportsworldreport.com

A team I would never have expected to be writing about hits up the monsters list next. The Oakland Raiders have a great match up against the 32nd ranked defense of the Cleveland Browns. Giving up a league high 155.5 yards per game, and 5 yards per carry, it is a good week ahead for Darren McFadden. As long as the Raiders follow a game plan that includes attacking Cleveland at their weak point, you should get a solid spot start from McFadden this week.

The Bad:

The Cincinnati Bengals had a tough week 7 against the Colts, and it isn't going to get much easier this week against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are the 7th ranked run defense in the NFL allowing only 87 yards per game on the ground and only 3 touchdowns on the season. This will make for a hard game for Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill in week 8. The Ravens passing defense is ranked 24th in the league allowing 258 yards a game, but they have not allowed a lot of scoring, only 7 passing touchdowns on the season. The Bengals need AJ Green to play this week, or they will have a hard time finding a way to win this game. If Green sits out again this week, or if he isn't 100 percent, I don't like the fantasy output you will likely see from the Bengals.

Image source stltoday.com

St. Louis Rams played a solid game against the Seahawks in week 7, but their special teams was the

difference maker last week. This week I look for their passing attack to have a difficult time against the leagues number 2 pass defense. The Kansas City Chiefs only allow 209 yards per game on the season. They have allowed 11 passing touchdowns on the season, but a young quarterback, and inconsistent play from the wide receivers of the Rams leads me to the desire to sit my Rams wide outs this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars earned their first win of the season in week 7, but in week 8 they get to face the defense that just shut down a much better Chicago offense. The Miami Dolphins are the 4th ranked passing defense and 10th ranked run defense. Allowing 213.3 and 100.3 yards a game respectively, it looks to be a bad match up for the Jags this week. Add to that the revolving door at running back, and a rookie signal caller, and it is hard to find a Jaguar I would want to start on my fantasy team this week.

Image source sportstalkflorida.com

This week the Atlanta Falcons face off against what has been one of the best defenses in the league in the Detroit Lions. Detroit has the leagues 2nd ranked run defense at 73.4 yards per game and 3 rushing scores allowed on the season. The Falcons have a mess on their offensive line, having lost 5 players for the season already. On top of that, they have a weird 4 headed monster of a running back by committee going on. Steven Jackson is quite obviously past his prime now, and the other three rely on long touchdown catches to do anything at all. There is not a Falcons running back that I would even roster now, let alone think about starting for my fantasy teams the rest of this season.

Another tough running back situation sets up this week for the San Diego Chargers. Facing the 3rd ranked run defense of the Denver Broncos in week 8, who give up only 74.3 yards per game, and 5 scores on the ground so far on the season, Branden Oliver has a mountain to climb this week, pun not intended. Add to that the short week, this is the Thursday night game, and the fact that it is in Denver in the thin air, and Oliver is a sit in my book. The Chargers don't have another viable option at running back, so Oliver will see workload, but I don't expect him to put up huge numbers.

Image source: sbnation.com

The Chicago Bears wide receivers and Jay Cutler have their second difficult match up in a row coming in week 8. They face off against the top ranked New England Patriots pass defense. Allowing only 208 yards per game and 11 touchdowns on the season, the Pats have the luxury of having Revis Island. You can basically take one of the Bears receivers out of the picture, but I am not sure which one it will be. In any case, with dissension amongst the ranks in the Bears offense after last weeks abysmal performance at the Dolphins, I don't see relief in their future. 

That brings us to the end of another monster match ups and misses. Hopefully it has helped to shape informed decisions for your week 8 fantasy lineups. Good luck and go get 'em!

Garage Sale Denver Area

Taking a look at the Denver Broncos schedule and current offensive rankings, it seems like selling while you can may be a good idea. Remember when the price of gold skyrocketed? If you had a bunch of gold, and sold it all in 2011, you would have made tons of money. Now gold still has value, but it has dropped off since its highs. The same holds true for the Denver offense.

Denver has the second hardest schedule for the 2014 season. This fact has not been lost on me, seeing as I own pieces of their offense on my various teams. In the last week I have started to think about using those players to trade up to players with more favorable situations. This thought started to cross my mind as I watched the Broncos play the Seahawks in week 3 of the season. They were shut down for 3 quarters of the game. Now understood that Seattle has a formidable defense, but Seattle is far from the only difficult task throughout the season.

Looking at the Broncos schedule from after their bye in week for on, the outlook is somewhat bleak for their prospects. Let us examine the data. The defensive rankings are through the third week of the season, so small sample size, but I still think the data is likely applicable.

The Broncos opponents average total defensive ranking is 10.07 for the rest of the season. The low outliers are Kansas City at 19 and Cincinnati at 17, both on the road. Denver already played Kansas City in week 2, putting up 24 points. They only managed 88 yards rushing and did not score on the ground. Peyton Manning was 21-26 for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns. In this game Emmanuel Sanders had 8-108, and 3 different Broncos scored. The yardage production for Manning is slightly lower than you might expect against a supposedly depleted secondary at home. The high outliers are at the Jets (2nd in total D) and at New England (3).

What looks like the best case for the Broncos is the opponents run defense, coming in at an average of 15.3. Weeks 5, 6, and 7 look particularly brutal for their run game, as the worst run defense they face is 6th ranked San Francisco. After week 7 it begins to ease up slightly, possibly with some favorable run match ups against the Raiders (31) in weeks 10 and 17, the Rams (29) in week 11, Miami (20) in week 12, and Kansas City (23) in week 13.

The passing defense of Broncos opponents came in at an average of 10.8 rest of season. Only 3 of their opponents are currently ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass defense: Arizona in week 5 (19), Buffalo (26) in week 14, and Cincinnati (17) in week 16. This lends itself to the thought that even with Peyton at the controls, it might be some tough sledding for the Broncos in the passing game. I feel it necessary to note that the passing numbers for Oakland (4) may be flawed as Oakland is the second worst team against the run, so teams do not need to.

No matter what it was going to be difficult to repeat the season Denver had in 2013 in which they set a few offensive records. The difficulty has me interested in getting what I can for my Denver players. After last year, and being so early this year and post bye, you should still be able to get top dollar for many of your Denver guys. I have not been able to find a statistic ranking defense against tight ends, but Julius Thomas has been producing at a high level. I am personally not going to look at trading him where I have him. Emmanuel Sanders is also producing well, having 2 100 yard plus games and averaging 8 catches a game through the first two weeks. If you can sell pretty high on him, do it. If not, holding on to him doesn't seem a bad idea yet.

The rest of the offense is on the block in my leagues. I have been actively seeking a trade for Montee Ball in one league, and would entertain offers for Demaryius given enough value. I don't think I would take much less than another top tier wide receiver and maybe a running back of lower value. Peyton can also bring you a haul. I just traded him in a 2 quarterback league in a 5 player deal giving up Peyton and Alfred Morris and getting back Calvin Johnson, Tony Romo, and DeAndre Hopkins.

If you find the right owner, with the right mix of players, and the right needs, dealing the Denver offense is not a bad idea. You can likely get players to fill holes in your roster, and free yourself from the Broncos match up nightmares.

Forgot About Pra(ter)

It may seem odd to find a post about a kicker for fantasy football purposes, but when the kicker is likely not owned in your league, and he is on a good team, has a good home field, is highly accurate, and is past his bye, he is a good target to add.

Matt Prater (DEN) was suspended by the NFL for the first 4 games (5 weeks) of the 2014 season. Assuming that the Broncos retain him after his suspension, Prater is a valuable commodity to your fantasy team. Playing for a team that scored 75 touchdowns and attempted 26 field goals last year means that he is likely to be quite a high scoring player for your team.

His kicking situation is fantastic, playing 6 of his remaining games this year in the thin air of Denver. Prater was a very accurate kicker last season making all 75 of his extra points and 25/26 field goal attempts. He is usually one of the first kickers to come off the board in drafts and is just sitting there for the taking.This season he will be available to cunning fantasy players who pounce on the opportunity to scoop him up.

My suggestion is to wait til late in week 5, Sunday morning is the best time, and drop a player that you either don't play, or is not performing if you don't have a bench spot available. You will have a ready-to-drop player in the kicker you play in week 5 to drop and add a player during waivers in week 6.