Monster Match Ups And Misses Week 8

Week 8 has some huge games that offer up some monster match ups for your fantasy week. On the flip side of that, there are some games that offer up bad match ups for both receivers and running backs on your teams. Let's take a look at this weeks monsters and misses.

The Good

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Detroit Lions have a great match up this week against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have the 27th ranked run defense in the league allowing 137.7 rushing yards per game and 13 rushing touchdowns so far this season. With Reggie Bush and Theo Riddick both being banged up, it might be a great week for Joique Bell this week in London. Along with the bad run defense the Falcons have the 29th ranked pass defense in the league. Allowing 274.4 yards and 8 touchdowns through the air this year, Golden Tate should find himself some good stats this week. Early rumors say that it is possible that Calvin Johnson will play this week, but keep an eye out for practice report updates this week. Being that this game is in London, the start time is early for both east and west coast fantasy players. If Johnson practices this week, you can expect him to play and plug him in your lineup.

The

In week 8 the Seattle Seahawks face off against the once menacing defense of the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers rank 26th against the run, allowing 137.6 yards per game and 8 touchdowns on the season on the ground. Ranking 22nd against the pass, they allow 250.7 yards per game and 15 touchdowns. I look for the Seahawks to recommit to the run this week with Marshawn Lynch. On top of that, it could be a coming out party for Paul Richardson this week against the porous Carolina secondary. Start your Seahwaks, and don't leave Richardson on your waiver wire for the future.

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The Minnesota Vikings have a great match up against the run defense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs allow 128.3 yards per game with their 25th ranked run defense. Jerick McKinnon seems to have finally passed Matt Asiata to be the starter and feature back for the Vikings. With 30 rushes for 143 yards the past 2 weeks for the Vikes, McKinnon has had the lions share of the rushes for the Vikings. He is a must start this week against the Bucs.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers wide receivers have to be licking their chops with their match up this week at the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have the 28th ranked pass defense, allowing 270.5 yards per game and have given up 11 touchdowns while only having 3 interceptions. Look for the great offense of the Packers to feast on the Saints defense early and often.

The Philadelphia Eagles square off against the 31st ranked pass defense of the Arizona Cardinals. Allowing 284.8 yards per game, the pass heavy offense of the Eagles should be able to find some success against the Cards. Look for Jeremy Maclin to have a good game, but the sleeper to watch is Jordan Matthews. Look for him to have a breakout game this week. I would expect to see Patrick Peterson on Jeremy Maclin a lot, leaving Mathews in a good spot to score for you.

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A team I would never have expected to be writing about hits up the monsters list next. The Oakland Raiders have a great match up against the 32nd ranked defense of the Cleveland Browns. Giving up a league high 155.5 yards per game, and 5 yards per carry, it is a good week ahead for Darren McFadden. As long as the Raiders follow a game plan that includes attacking Cleveland at their weak point, you should get a solid spot start from McFadden this week.

The Bad:

The Cincinnati Bengals had a tough week 7 against the Colts, and it isn't going to get much easier this week against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are the 7th ranked run defense in the NFL allowing only 87 yards per game on the ground and only 3 touchdowns on the season. This will make for a hard game for Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill in week 8. The Ravens passing defense is ranked 24th in the league allowing 258 yards a game, but they have not allowed a lot of scoring, only 7 passing touchdowns on the season. The Bengals need AJ Green to play this week, or they will have a hard time finding a way to win this game. If Green sits out again this week, or if he isn't 100 percent, I don't like the fantasy output you will likely see from the Bengals.

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St. Louis Rams played a solid game against the Seahawks in week 7, but their special teams was the

difference maker last week. This week I look for their passing attack to have a difficult time against the leagues number 2 pass defense. The Kansas City Chiefs only allow 209 yards per game on the season. They have allowed 11 passing touchdowns on the season, but a young quarterback, and inconsistent play from the wide receivers of the Rams leads me to the desire to sit my Rams wide outs this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars earned their first win of the season in week 7, but in week 8 they get to face the defense that just shut down a much better Chicago offense. The Miami Dolphins are the 4th ranked passing defense and 10th ranked run defense. Allowing 213.3 and 100.3 yards a game respectively, it looks to be a bad match up for the Jags this week. Add to that the revolving door at running back, and a rookie signal caller, and it is hard to find a Jaguar I would want to start on my fantasy team this week.

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This week the Atlanta Falcons face off against what has been one of the best defenses in the league in the Detroit Lions. Detroit has the leagues 2nd ranked run defense at 73.4 yards per game and 3 rushing scores allowed on the season. The Falcons have a mess on their offensive line, having lost 5 players for the season already. On top of that, they have a weird 4 headed monster of a running back by committee going on. Steven Jackson is quite obviously past his prime now, and the other three rely on long touchdown catches to do anything at all. There is not a Falcons running back that I would even roster now, let alone think about starting for my fantasy teams the rest of this season.

Another tough running back situation sets up this week for the San Diego Chargers. Facing the 3rd ranked run defense of the Denver Broncos in week 8, who give up only 74.3 yards per game, and 5 scores on the ground so far on the season, Branden Oliver has a mountain to climb this week, pun not intended. Add to that the short week, this is the Thursday night game, and the fact that it is in Denver in the thin air, and Oliver is a sit in my book. The Chargers don't have another viable option at running back, so Oliver will see workload, but I don't expect him to put up huge numbers.

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The Chicago Bears wide receivers and Jay Cutler have their second difficult match up in a row coming in week 8. They face off against the top ranked New England Patriots pass defense. Allowing only 208 yards per game and 11 touchdowns on the season, the Pats have the luxury of having Revis Island. You can basically take one of the Bears receivers out of the picture, but I am not sure which one it will be. In any case, with dissension amongst the ranks in the Bears offense after last weeks abysmal performance at the Dolphins, I don't see relief in their future. 

That brings us to the end of another monster match ups and misses. Hopefully it has helped to shape informed decisions for your week 8 fantasy lineups. Good luck and go get 'em!

WTHarvin

Late this afternoon Jay Glazer of Fox Sports reported that the Seahawks have traded Percy Harvin to the New York Jets. This trade was wholly unexpected, speaking as a Seattle resident and Hawks fan. Lets look at what this does to the receiver corps in Seattle.

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Paul Richardson is the immediate first thought to gain in value. Often compared to Harvin after the draft, Richardson is a speedster and could immediately fill in in the role carved out for Harvin in the Hawks offense. Graded out at the combine with a 4.4 40 yard dash, his strengths are stretching the field and play extension by coming back to the quarterback, all things that are improtant to the Seahawks offense. The big knock on Richardson is that he is small, and needs to put on weight to be effective in the NFL.

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Kevin Norwood is the other wide receiver taken in the 2014 draft by the Seahawks. Standing 6'2 and
weighing in at 198 at the combine, Norwood is a long receiver with a solid build. He is known to have good hands and has good skill at extending plays by coming back to quarterback. The big knocks on him were short arms and not creating separation or getting off of jams. So far this season Norwood has not made it on field on game day, but that may change with the subtraction of Harvin from the Seahawks Roster.

This trade obviously shifts the value of the Seahawks receivers for fantasy. I am not sure that it changes much as it is for Doug Baldwin or Jermaine Kearse. In my opinion if you were to make a speculative addition in the wake of this trade it would be best spent on Richardson as of now, but this weekends game against the St. Louis Rams will likely shed more light on the situation. Just in case, I recommend getting out in front of it and jettisoning a deep bench player to grab Richardson and hope you hit the lottery.

Good luck this week!

A Lot Of Peaks And Valleys On The Way To The Mountain Top

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Russell Wilson took the NFL by storm in 2013, a far cry from what his draft stock was like in the 2012 draft. Coming out of college in the same season as such huge names as Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, Wilson was a distant thought in most fans minds,  yet has had arguably the biggest impact of all the 2013 quarterbacks. As for his fantasy value, that is a subject with many ups and downs.

Wilson began his career with the North Carolina State Wolfpack in 2008. Starting 11 games as a freshman, Wilson amassed solid numbers in his time the quarterback in North Carolina. Completing 682 of 1180 passes fir 8545 yards and 76 touchdowns along with 362 rushes for 1083 yards and 17 touchdowns in his 3 seasons at the helm of the offense. After the 2010 season, Wilson decided to attend spring training for the Colorado Rockies Major League Baseball team. This decision created a rift between Wilson and North Carolina State coach Tom O'Brien, eventually leading to Wilson being released from his scholarship to pursue baseball.

After spending the summers of 2010 and 2011 playing in Class A ball in the Rockies organization, Wilson committed to Wisconsin with his last remaining year of eligibility in the NCAA. During the 2011 season Wilson completed 225 of 309 passes for 3175 yards and 33 touchdowns. He also rushed 79 times for 338 yards and 6 scores. After the season he was named first team Big 10, Big 10 quarterback of the year, and leading the Badgers to a Big 10 championship that season, Wilson fell just short in the Rose Bowl against Oregon.

Coming into the 2012 draft, Wilson had a mid to late round grade at the combine. Possessing good speed, a 4.55 40 yard dash, and 10.25" hands, great for a quarterback being able to hold on to the ball and have control, the knock on Wilson was his height. He was graded out as an accurate passer who had great mechanics. Leadership was listed as an asset for Wilson as well. The issue, would he be able to see over the tall players on the offensive and defensive lines to make the throws. 

Drafted in the 3rd round by the Seahawks, 75th overall, Wilson came in to a quarterback room as the number 3 guy, the Hawks having Tavaris Jackson and just signed Matt Flynn. By the third preseason game, the momentum had built for Wilson. Yes it was him perfomring against the backups for the opposing team, but he was playing well and making good decisions. He was earning his shot. An arm injury to Flynn opened the door, and Wilson seized his opportunity.

This is the point in the article where we turn to the fantasy outlook and crunch some fantasy numbers. Wilson is a fantastic NFL quarterback. He leads his team, and he commands his huddle. He won a Super Bowl in his second season. But his fantasy stock is up and down. Lots of peaks in his numbers, and just about as many valleys. writing this after Wilson has played 5 games in the 2014 season, he has 37 games played in 2+ seasons, lets take a further look at some of his numbers. For the purposes of this article assume all fantasy numbers in ESPN standard scoring, 1 point for 25 yards passing, 4 point passing touchdowns, and 1 point for 10 rushing yards.

In 2012, Wilson's rookie season, he had 5 games where he scored 10 fantasy points or under . Of those games, 3 were on the road, and 3 were against NFC West opponents. If we expand to 15 points or less, there were 8 games where Wilson scored under that line. On the positive side of his fantasy numbers, he had 6 games on the season where he scored 20 fantasy points or above, including a 39 point effort against the Buffalo Bills in which he didn't play the whole game in a big blowout.

The 2013 Season using the same criteria, Russell had 5 games where he scored 10 fantasy points or under. Moving that number once again to 15 points or under we find that Wilson had 8 games again that meet this criteria. Once again looking at his 20+ point games we find that he had 5 games at that level. The lower scoring games once again seem to favor the NFC West opponents in the 2013 campaign.

So far in 2014 through 5 games, Wilson has only 1 game at the 10 points or under category. He has 2 games over the 20 point upper threshold, one home, and one on road. So far this year Wilson has yet to face any of the NFC West foes that have combined to keep his point totals lower over his first 2 seasons.

Taking the numbers of his career overall to get a picture makes a fairly clear point. In 37 total games so far, wilson has 22 games over 15 fantasy points, and 26 of his games are over 10 points. On the flip side, Wilson has 15 games under 15, and 11 of those games are under 10 fantasy points. His biggest games, which we will consider over 20 points add up to 13 through 37 career games, including 5 games over 25 points and 2 over 30. He averages a decent number of fantasy points season by season, 16.5 in 2012, 16.9 in 2013, and so far in 2014 19.8 points per game. For his career as a whole he is averaging 17.1 fantasy points per game.

Theses numbers lead to the conclusion that Russell Wilson is a solid choice as a fantasy quarterback. He has a reasonably high floor, and a big ceiling. I think that most fantasy players would find themselves quite happy with the performance of their quarterback if he was averaging 17 points per game for them. as he grows, matures, and hopefully acquires more weapons in his offense, his numbers will continue to go up. Predicting his off week is seemingly predictable and you could definitely use another quarterback to play in weeks where the Hawks face off against the better defenses of the NFC west and top defenses of the NFL in general.

In my opinion, Russell Wilson is a super solid quarterback for your fantasy purposes. High floor and very high ceiling make him a solid option for your fantasy team both this year and in the future. His cost in most drafts is lower that other top tier quarterbacks, and he is a must own in dynasty and keeper formats. If you don't have him in those formats, go get him. And keep your eye on him in your drafts next year.