Start Sit Week Three

The Week Three slate is underway. Game on! The Giants played a great all-around game on Thursday night, taking it to the Redskins. OBJ looked good. Reuben Randle had the game of his life. And Washington was handled. Their offense was stuck in the mud. Now we head into the weekend slate of games. All teams still playing this week for the last time until Week 12.

So here we are again. Meeting here is becoming commonplace these days. I don’t mind. Always happy to talk about Fantasy and give you my thoughts about players and their situations. Who do I like this week? Who do I not like? What defense am I interested in? What quarterbacks can be streamed this week? Well let me tell you what I think.

Image Source: nflspinzone.com

Start

John Brown, WR, Arizona

Get used to Brown being on this list. He is a great player in a great situation. As long as Carson Palmer, the offensive line, and Brown stay healthy, he’s pretty much a weekly starter in this offense. Brown has had decent stats so far, and a monster is coming. On top of his nine catches for 91 yards and a score, Brown has drawn two pass interference calls. This week the Cardinals play a 49ers defense that was lit up by the Steelers last week. Still reeling, I don’t believe the 49ers are the team from Week One, and are actually the leaky boat that played Week Two. A big game is in the works for John Brown. Don’t let him have it from your bench.

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle

Graham was missing in action last week in Green Bay. One catch on two targets and one leak that he is pissed. This week the lowly Chicago Bears come to town to face an 0-2 Seahawks squad that will be looking to make a statement to the league. Chicago is weak on both offense and defense. The walking wounded roster of the Bears is likely to be missing Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery. The defense for the Bears is not in much better shape. This is the reset season. Ctrl+alt+delete on the whole team. The defense is a 4-3 squad being made to play in a 3-4 scheme. This preseason I saw Jared Allen dropping into coverage. Not something I would want to see from my team. This leads me to want to play Graham this week. I expect Seattle to score at will. And if they get in close, expect them to try to feed Graham, pissed or not.

Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland

Murray faces a Browns team this week that was dead last in run defense last season. Even with additions this year, they still aren’t a good unit. In their first game of the season the Browns allowed Chris Ivory to run for 91 yards and two scores. Last week they allowed Dexter McCluster to run for 98 yards. Murray had 65 yards on the ground last week and a score. I expect to see him run a lot this week. I have him inserted in my starting lineups where I have him, and so should you.

Frank Gore, RB, Indianapolis

Gore has some of the Fantasy world concerned. Not this guy. I had no desire to have any shares of Gore this season, yet ended up with him on multiple squads. At some point a value is too good to pass up. At this point I have absolutely no idea what to think of Gore. The first two weeks of the season were against some very good defensive units. The Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets were 11^th and fifth against the run last season. The schedule gets a bit better for the next two weeks, and if you have Gore and are ever going to play him, this is the week. Don’t let his good matchups go to waste and fire him up this week.

CJ Anderson, RB, Denver

Anderson was a very early draft pick, and he has not met expectations. A toe injury and some very bad offensive line play have hampered the efforts of Anderson so far this season. Normally I wouldn’t be telling you that a matchup with the Lions is just what the doctor ordered. The Lions were the top ranked run defense last season. But this year is different. Suh is gone. Levy is out. And the Lions are letting you run. I am a staunch supporter of Anderson, in fact completing a trade for him in a league today, and writing an article in support of trading for him you can read here. With 10 days off, Anderson has had time to heal and has been a full participant in practice so far this week. Get him in your lineup this week.

Sit

Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

Miller has been pretty much a disappointment so far this season. Miller left last week with an ankle injury. What he did before that wasn’t very impressive. Only rushing for a total of 67 yards in the first two weeks, and catching six passes for 50 yards is not a good start. Miller has returned to practice on Thursday, but his matchup leaves a lot to be desired. The Buffalo Bills travel to take on the Dolphins this week. The Bills had a stout run defense last year and shut down the Colts in Week One. Week Two the Patriots solved the riddle to an extent, but Dion Lewis only had 40 yards rushing. I can’t see a banged up Miller doing a lot on the ground for the Dolphins, and if you have another option get him on your bench.

Matt Forte, RB, Chicago

Forte might be the only healthy guy on the Bears offense. Don’t think that this fact will escape the 0-2 Seahawks. The box will likely be stacked against Forte until likely starter Jimmy Clausen makes them back off. Forte is going to have a long day, with Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffery highly likely to be out this week. I would sit Forte if you have a capable replacement on your bench.

DeMarco Murray, RB, Philadelphia

Murray has been bad. It’s not all his fault. The offensive line play has been atrocious. The quarterback play has been worse. And the offense is a giant pile of smoldering garbage. Expect it to erupt into flames on Sunday this week. In addition to the issues the Eagles have been having, Murray left practice on Wednesday with a hamstring injury. This sit recommendation might be moot by Sunday if Murray cannot go. And we haven’t even considered the matchup. Say hello to the Jets. Yeah, the ones who shut down the Colts high powered offense last week. If Murray plays, I would be expecting the status quo of the season. Sit your Murray shares this week.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans

Brees and the Saints offense have not played well so far. And now Brees has a shoulder injury that might affect his throwing and distance. Weakness in the shoulder is a side effect of a rotator cuff contusion. This does not make me feel confident in an offense that has struggled in scoring so far this season. And the Saints draw the Carolina Panthers and their stout defensive line and secondary. With a loss of identity apparent, a tough matchup in front of him, and an injury to his throwing shoulder, I have to suggest benching Brees this week.

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay

Martin has had some favorable matchups in the first two weeks of the season. Sadly he hasn’t done a lot with them. On 32 carries so far this season, Martin has had only 130 yards. Three catches for 22 yards are not much of a boost. And these numbers came against the Titans and the Saints. This week the Bucs face the 10^th ranked run defense from last season in the Houston Texans. The front seven for the Texans is a very strong unit. I fail to see how a bad matchup against a good defense is going to be the breakout that Martin owners are looking for. Sit Martin this week.

Defenses to stream

New England Patriots

The Pats play the Jaguars this week. Last season a streaming strategy was to get who the Jags were playing. I have not seen a reason to change this yet.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons face a Cowboys squad that is reeling after losing their top wide receiver and their quarterback in the first two weeks of the season. Despite a stout line their running game has not been impressive. I want to play the defense that plays the Cowboys until either Romo returns or they prove me wrong.

Quarterbacks to Stream

Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee

Mariota had a great debut in Week One. And then he came back down to earth last week. But Mariota is accurate, and accuracy is not something everyone has. This week facing the Colts, I could see Mariota having a good game. Consider him as a streaming option this week.

Ryan Fitzpartick, QB, New York Jets

Fitzy has been solid so far this season. He isn’t a huge fantasy scorer, but he won’t kill you either. Averaging 15.75 points per game is a good fill in for your quarterback. This week against the Eagles I would love to be playing Fitzpatrick in as many leagues as I can. Hopefully Eric Decker can get back on the field this week to give Fitzpatrick some extra help. I love Fitzy this season as a good option to stream.

So this ends the start sit article for Week Three. I hope that it has been helpful in making your decisions a little more educated. Make sure to check out my injury report articles using thislink. You can follow me on twitter, and sign up to receive notices when I post a new article at the top of this page. Thank you for your time and reading what I have to say. Good luck in your leagues this week.

Taking A Good Look At QB

Wait on one. Take one in the late first round. Don't take one until the mid rounds. The advice on the quarterback position is all over the board. The top 6 scoring players in ESPN standard leagues were quarterbacks. What does this mean? You can get one of them at every part of the draft the advice suggests. But which one to get? I posit that schedule and consistent play can lead you to great situations.

Image source cbssports.com

Last year Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck were a cut above. Scoring 342 and 336 points respectively in ESPN standard scoring. Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning were a tier of their own at 312 and 307. Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees complete the list of pre-cliff QB's scoring 295 and 290. From there it went downhill, but not to despair.

So how to decide when and who to take at the quarterback position? Some of that is personal, and based largely on draft strategy. If a top tier guy falls far enough for me, like Rodgers or Luck in the 3rd round, I might take them. But I myself find that I like to wait and fill out the rest of my roster, and some of my bench, before I snag a QB. There is value in the mid to late rounds of the draft at the QB position.

Image source: chatsports.com

Obviously Luck and Rodgers are great quarterbacks, both NFL and fantasy. They were both tied with ffconsistency.com, tops in the league. This season Luck is in prime position to have a stellar performance. Indy has added offensive weapons like Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, Duron Carter, and Phillip Dorsett. Adding those players to TY Hilton and tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener makes one potent offense. Then look at the numbers of the defenses they will face in 2015 and your mouth should start watering. The average rank of the pass defenses that the Colts will face in the upcoming season is 18. They have the 9th best schedule for pass defenses they will face from 2014 numbers. On top of that, they will only face 3 top 10 defenses against the pass from last season. I certainly can't blame anyone for taking Luck in their draft.

81% consistency ratings according to Bob Lung's ratings on

Aaron Rodgers has some good offensive weapons as well in Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Eddie Lacy. Davante Adams still has some proving himself to do, but Arod was singing his praises this off season. The big difference I find between Luck and Rodgers is that Rodgers faces a more formidable schedule of pass defenses. The Packers average pass defense faced for the 2015 season is 13.87, the 26th ranked schedule in the league. They will square off against 7 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. Now don't get this info wrong. I don't think that Rodgers will not play well this season, he is a great  quarterback, but his road is much tougher than Luck.

So let's turn our attention to some mid to late round quarterbacks that, should you choose not to draft Luck and Rodgers, have favorable schedules based on the defenses they will face.

Image source: web.vtc.edu

Drew Brees is currently ranked 42 in average draft position (ADP) on Fantasypros.com. Fantasy Pros uses a blended ranking of multiple sites to give you an average across many platforms. Brees was 75% consistent last season, and about 79% over the past 3 seasons, according to Bob Lung of ffconsistency.com and socalledfantasyexperts.com. This means that Brees has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks over the last 3 seasons. In the upcoming season Brees has the second best ranked schedule of defenses against the pass. The Saints average pass defense faced in 2015 was 22.06, and they won't face a single top 10 pass defense from a year ago. On top of that, they will play a total of 10 games indoors this season. At a 4th round value for a 10 team league, or late 3rd in a 12 team, Brees should definitely be on your radar this season.

Tony Romo is currently a 7th round (10 team) or 6th round (12 team) pick according to Fantasy Pros ADP. Romo was a 73% consistent player last season. This year he has the 8th best schedule against opposing pass defenses from a year ago, an average defense of 18.31. Dallas will only face a top 10 pass defense 4 times this season. With turmoil in the backfield of the Cowboys this off season, it might make sense that Dallas could pass more against the weak pass defenses they will face. As long as everyone pertinent to the Cowboys pass attack makes it out of the preseason unscathed, and Dez Bryant doesn't miss any time, Romo is a guy that is high up on my list for 2015.

Image source: reddit.com

Russell Wilson is pretty good at football. Both running the ball, and passing it. And this season you

might just see the Seahawks open up their offense against some sub-par defenses. The addition of Jimmy Graham will loom large for the Hawks this season. A big physical target in the middle of the field should open up the outside, and the element of surprise will always be with the play action and read option. Wilson had a monster season on the ground in 2014, rushing for 849 yards and 6 scores. In addition to his amazing rushing stats, Wilson threw for over 3400 yards and 20 touchdowns, while only having 7 interceptions. In a sort of contract year, expect only top level play from Wilson in 2015. In terms of consistency, Russell was at 69% last year, good for 7th among quarterbacks. The schedule shapes up nicely for Wilson and the Seahawks passing attack this season as well. They will face the 11th best schedule against pass defenses, averaging 17.56. They will only face 5 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. At 35th overall in ADP his price might be a little bit high for my liking, but he has multiple ways to score you points.

Image source: fanthem.com

Last but not least for this article, Eli Manning. I've never been much of an Eli guy, but I am kind of interested in him this season. I do need to hear some good things about the shape of the offensive line for the Giants, and I would like to see Victor Cruz back by the beginning of the season, but it is hard to deny the talent we saw from Odell Beckham Jr. last season. Eli threw for 4410 yards and 30 touchdowns last season, with only 14 interceptions. The new uptempo offense seemed to suit him, and he was able to help make Odell a household name. Eli was  tied for 10th in consistency last season at 56%. The Giants have the 6th best schedule in relation to pass defenses faced from 2014, averaging a rank of 19.37. They will only face 4 top 10 defenses from last year. Assuming that the Giants are able to lock down the line, and Cruz can still play, Eli could be a steal at an ADP of 99 overall. 

So as you can see, yes there are some elite guys out there. They will never be bad selections, but are they necessary? If you can acquire top level talent at other positions that will not be available later in the draft, you can still find your value guys later in the draft.