My Playbook

Showing posts with label Dolphins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dolphins. Show all posts

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Match Up Monsters And Misses Week 10

Week 10 already. Hard to imagine that the fantasy season is winding down. Only a few more weeks until the playoffs start. It's go time. Time to make those good decisions and play your optimal lineups. I present to you my help this week with the match up monsters and misses.

The Good:

Image source: lubbockonline.com
The Dallas Cowboys have a great match up this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars on what amounts to a neutral field in London. The Jags are in the bottom of the rankings in rushing (24th, 123.4 yards per game) and passing (25th, 263.4 yards per game). If Tony Romo can stay upright during the game, look for the Cowboys to tee off on the Jags defense. Any of the starting players on the Dallas offense are good starts this week. The only guy I might worry about is Jason Witten, as he may be required to stay at the line and block this week. 

Baltimore Ravens running backs have a great opportunity this week against the 29th ranked run defense of the Titans. I would expect the Ravens to build a lead this week and lean on their running game. This week both Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro are good starters to lean on. Taliaferro has been getting the bulk of the goal line work the last few weeks, and Forsett has been great this season as the lead back after the Ray Rice suspension.

Image source: boston.com
The layup of the week seems like it would be the Pittsburgh Steelers wide receivers against the New York Jets. The Steelers have 12 receiving touchdowns in their last 2 games, and the Jets have allowed 24 passing touchdowns on the season. It is a match made in heaven. If nobody has scooped up Martavis Bryant yet, he is a must start for you this week. I would even suggest a spot start for Markus Wheaton to fill in for your bye week receivers or a flex spot.

The Denver Broncos running backs should have a game of it this week against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders have the 27th ranked rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 132.5 yards per game on the ground. In a game that is likely to get out of hand early, look for the Broncos to shorten the game by feeding their running backs and keeping the clock running.

Image source: bleacherreport.com
Andre Ellington and the Arizona Cardinals running attack have a solid match up against the 30th
ranked run defense of the St. Louis Rams. The Rams are allowing 136.2 yards per game on the ground. Look for Ellington and Marion Grice to have good games against the Rams. Not sure that I can say to start grimes, but if you are in a pinch, he has been getting some goal line work for the Cardinals in the absence of Stepfan Taylor.

I am looking for a good week from the Green Bay Packers offense this week against the Chicago Bears. The Bears have the 23rd ranked pass defense, and the Packers pass at a prolific clip. Look for great games for Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and even Davante Adams. If the Packers build a lead, expect a good workload for Eddie Lacy and maybe even James Starks if the game is totally out of hand.

The Philadelphia Eagles face off against the 18th ranked pass defense of the Carolina Panthers this week. Allowing 246.2 yards per game and 17 touchdowns through the air this season, the Panthers should provide a soft landing for the new starter for the Eagles Mark Sanchez. Expect productive days from all your regular Eagles contributors, and even the likes of Jordan Mathews and maybe even Zach Ertz. I'm starting my Eagles passing attack this week.

The Bad

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The Tennessee Titans have a difficult match up this week against the 6th ranked run defense of the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have only allowed 86.4 yards per game this season on the ground. Bishop Sankey is likely in for a long day on Sunday. The Titans will likely be throwing a lot with new starter Zach Mettenberger and his cannon arm. I would not suggest a start this week for Sankey, if he is even on your roster at this point.

Andre Williams and the New York Giants have a difficult game ahead of them this week facing the Seahawks in Seattle. The Hawks are holders of the 4th ranked run defense this season, allowing only 83 yards per game and 3 touchdowns on the ground all season. I wouldn't look for a big game from the oft under performing Williams this week in this match up.

Image source: NFL.com
The dysfunctional Chicago Bears passing game is lining up opposite the 9th ranked pass defense of
division rival Green Bay this week. Both Teams are coming off a bye, and have had plenty of time to prepare for their opponent. The Packers are allowing only 225.8 yards per game through the air, and have a 12:10 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions this year. I don't know if I can trust the Bears offense to right the ship this week.

The Oakland Raiders are facing what could end up the best improved defense in the NFL this season. The Broncos are ranked 1 in run defense, allowing 71.6 yards per game, and 21st against the pass. Last week against the Patriots a big blow was dealt to the Broncos pass defense, but the Raiders are not the Patriots. I see this game as a possible blowout for the Broncos, and your best shot at scoring with the Raiders is garbage time through the air. Sit your Raiders running backs, start James Jones and Andre Holmes if you have no other alternatives.

The Buffalo Bills have the biggest hurdle of the week in the form of the top ranked Kansas City Chiefs pass defense. The Chiefs are the only team that is allowing under 200 yards a game through the air. The Bills are possibly going to be without the services of Sammy Watkins after he hurt his groin in practice on Wednesday. If the Bills are missing him, or if he is limited in any way it's going to be a long, tough day for Kyle Orton and the Bills offense.

Image source: phinphanatic.com
Injury has put a damper on the Miami Dolphins run game for week 10. Already having lost Knowshon Moreno for the season, the Dolphins now deal with an injury to Lamar Miller. Miller has a sprained AC joint in his shoulder and may not play this week. The AC joint often gets sprained in a shoulder separation, and it can be a 4 week injury. For a guy who has the job of running into a group of large men 20+ times a game, this is not a good injury for your ball security. If Miller does play, he is a marginal play in my opinion, and if Miller doesn't play, I don't want anything to do with the Dolphins run game against the number 2 ranked run defense of the Detroit Lions.

That's our week 10 look at the Monster Match Ups and Misses. Hopefully this will help you make good decisions that propel you toward your eventual spot atop the throne of your fantasy leagues. Good luck this week!

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Waiver Wire week 10

First, apologies for the late publishing of this article, sometimes family comes first. Sick kids take time. Now on to football. Not a huge amount of guys that have good prospects this week on the wire. But there are some guys that have some good match ups and opportunities with another week of 6 teams on bye. Let's take a look.

RB

Alfred Blue (HOU) may be set up to start if Arian Foster misses any time with a groin injury. The Texans are on bye this week, but if you have a need at running back going forward, Blue is still the top add this week. Houston is a run heavy offense, and if Foster is out in week 11, it's Blue's job.

Charles Sims (TB) is still a guy that should be added in all leagues. Sims was inactive in week 9, but should soon see action. He is a fresh face who can catch passes out of the backfield, so a PPR league is the best spot for him. If nobody has snatched him up in your leagues yet, get him.

Terrance West (CLE) is the flavor of November for the Browns. Dominating the touches the last 2 games, West is back on the top of the pile for Cleveland. The Thursday night game against Cincinnati in week 10 provides a decent match up against a depleted defense without a lot of time to prepare. I can't tell you his stats have been impressive the last few weeks, having 15 carries for 48 yards last week and catching one pass for 2 yards and a score, but he has been getting the bulk of the carries. If you are in a bad spot for byes this week, he may be able to help you.

WR

Taylor Gabriel (CLE) has appeared on the waiver wire article before. This week he caught 5 passes for 87 yards and a score. With heavy byes again this week, Gabriel can likely be a decent fill in for you in week 10.

Mike Evans (TB) had a breakout week for the Buccaneers in week 9. With 7 catches for 124 yards and 2 scores, Evans showed up in a big way. Going forward expect him to get more use as Lovie Smith said the Bucs need to get him more involved in the passing game. If Evans is available in your league, snatch him up for this week and beyond.

Brandon LaFell (NE) is on bye in week 10, but is still a guy to add. Making 6 catches on 13 targets (team high) for 53 yards and a score. LaFell seems to have cemented his role in the Patriots offense. While he won't be helping you this week, but he's a good option for the rest of the season.

Davante Adams (GB) has been coming on in recent weeks. Coming off the bye in week 8 for Green Bay, Adams is a good add for the rest of the season. In week 7 he had 7 catches for 75 yards. Green bay passes enough to support 3 wide receivers, and if you need receiver help, you should definitely add Adams.

TE

Mychal Rivera (OAK) is a good bye week replacement at the tight end position for week 10. Coming off a good match up against the Seahawks in week 9, Rivera had 8 catches for 38 yards and 2 scores. He moves right into a good match up against the Broncos in week 10 who have trouble defending tight ends. Rivera has had two straight weeks of good production having 15 catches for 121 yards in the Raiders last 2 games. Pick him up if you have a bye week tight end need.

Charles Clay (MIA) is a hit and miss guy. Last week Clay had 5 catches for 65 yards and a score. This week the Dolphins face off against the Lions and their 5th ranked pass defense. I can't say that I am excited for the possibilities, but in a bye week bind, Clay is a tight end.

QB

Ryan Tannehill (MIA) had another great game for the Dolphins. Tannehill had 288 yards and 3 touchdowns passing and rushed for 47 yards. He has been playing extremely well over the last few weeks. Tannehill has about a 50/50 schedule of good versus bad match ups for the rest of the season. If you have a bye week guy, or are playing match ups at quarterback, he is a good guy to add to your rotation.

Mark Sanchez (PHI) is back from the dead. Yes, Zombie Mark Sanchez. And he has landed in a great spot. With Nick Foles out for the rest of the fantasy season, Sanchez finds himself in a high powered pass heavy offense. It is highly unlikely that anyone in your league owns him, so if you need a quarterback, snatch him up. Sanchez is similar talent wise to Foles, and should find success in the volume offense of the Eagles.

That brings us to the end of our waiver wire look for the upcoming week 10. Good luck this week!

Monday, October 27, 2014

Waiver Wire Week 9

Week 9 is a week of some big named players on bye. This week we have Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, and Tennessee on bye. There are 9 wide receivers alone from those teams that will be big losses for your fantasy teams. Here is a short list of players to look at to fill in those gaps in your lineup in week 9.

QB 
Ryan Tannehill (MIA) didn't do a lot of passing in week 8, because he didn't really need to. The Dolphins defense handled the heavy lifting, returning 2 interceptions for touchdowns. He did continue his streak of over 40 yards rushing for the 4th consecutive game. Tannehill is unlikely to get you a ton of points against a good pass defense at home this week against the Chargers, but he is playing well, and if he continues to get some rushing, he can be a good bye week fill in this week.

Michael Vick (NYJ) relieved Geno Smith in week 8 against the Bills. Vick didn't do a lot passing in week 8, but did have 69 yards rushing. If Vick is going to start next week, he will have some time to get reps and have a game plan built for him. The rushing alone will make up for a lot, and if your QB is on bye, Vick could help you out for a week.

RB 
Lorenzo Taliaferro (BAL) was a lone bright spot for the running back position that is unlikely to be owned in all leagues. Owned in only 12% of ESPN leagues, Taliaferro was the goal line back for the Ravens in week 8. Only rushing for 27 yards, he did score 2 times. He is a gamble, but with running back injuries and byes, Taliaferro is one of few running backs worth a look for week 9. Baltimore plays Pittsburgh next week, the 12th ranked run defense.

Denard Robinson (JAX) got a lot of work, and was effective, for the second week in a row. Running the ball 18 times for 108 yards and catching 1 pass for 10 yards, Robinson played well. Jacksonville faces off against the 29th ranked run defense of the Bengals next week. If he gets the work, the yardage should be there.

Alfred Blue (HOU) is not only the backup for Arian Foster, but also finding himself getting some work at times this year. Getting 14 carries for 42 yards in week 8, and a catch for 22 yards, blue and the Texans have some good running match ups coming up. A week 10 bye is a negative, but facing off against the Eagles in week 9, the Browns in week 11, and the Bengals in week 12 make the next 3 games good ones for the Houston running game. The Texans face only 2 top 10 defenses rest of season, and the average run defense faced for the rest of the year is 20.3. Blue is a good addition to a roster given that the Texans tend to be run heavy and have an injury prone Foster playing in front of Blue.

Charles Sims (TB) is a rookie back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Sims has been on the IR designated to return so far this season, but began practicing last week. With the lack of production, and apparent desire for the Bucs to trade everyone on their team, Sims is likely to get a shot very soon. He is a must add to any team that is in a bad spot at running back. I wrote about Sims last week in an article about IR designated to return players available with this link.

WR 

Martavis Bryant (PIT) was a recipient of the monster day of Ben Roethlisberger in week 8. Making 5 catches on 7 targets for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns, Bryant has scored 3 times in his first 2 games. I thought about writing about him last week, but wanted to see one more week of good production before making a recommendation to pick him up. Now is that time. Pittsburgh plays at the 22nd ranked pass defense of  Baltimore next week. Not a lot of scoring allowed through the air by the Ravens so far this season, but if the Steelers can build on their momentum from this week, Bryant could turn into a monster.

Donte Moncrief (IND) showed up huge this week for the Colts. A benefactor of the game flow, being down big quick, Moncrief made 7 catches for 113 yards and a touchdown. In the first week without both Reggie Wayne and Trent Richardson, Moncrief fit seamlessly into the offense. You can read my article on Donte from last week here. Assuming Wayne is out again this week with his elbow injury, Moncrief is a good addition to replace some of the receivers on bye in week 9. The Giants are the opponent for Indy in week 9, and have the 25th ranked pass defense in the league. Look for good production for Moncrief and the Colts in week 9.

Allen Robinson (JAX) is averaging 5.4 receptions per week for 64.7 yards a game, scoring twice for the Jaguars since week 2. Robinson is a good play for any fantasy team in a PPR league. Only owned in 3% of ESPN leagues, he is likely sitting on the waiver wire for the taking. The Jags face the Bengals this week and their 23rd ranked pass defense. If nothing else, Robinson is a good replacement for the week 9 bye guys, and may find a permanent spot on your roster after that.

Brandon LaFell (NE) was a beast in week 8. The favorite target of Tom Brady on Sunday, LaFell caught 11 passes for 124 yards and a touchdown. In PPR formats, it was his 3rd game in his last 5 with at least 23.9 points. Facing off against Denver's 17th ranked pass defense in week 9, LaFell could well find himself having another week of productive work. The schedule for the Patriots gets a bit brutal for the rest of the season, but as we have learned this season, never count out Brady and the Pats offense.

Davante Adams (GB) has been a bit hit and miss so far this season, but has taken over the number 3 receiver spot for the Packers. The schedule gets nice in the coming weeks, after the week 9 bye for Adams. Facing an average pass defense of 21.5 in the rankings, Adams has some very soft match ups, and 3 top 6 pass defenses left on the schedule. He is not necessarily a must add this week as he is on bye, but don't let him sit on the wire for too long.

 Thus brings us to the end of the waiver wire article for week 9. There are definitely some possible stars emerging and some good replacements for your bye weeks and injured players. Go pick 'em up, and good luck this week!

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Match Up Monsters And Misses

Week 7 in the NFL has some fantastic match ups for individual units on offense, and some match ups that look to be more on the negative side for offenses. Without further ado, your match up monsters and misses.

The Good:

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Baltimore Ravens running backs should be able to put up some numbers this week against the Atlanta Falcons 27th ranked run defense. The trick is to figure out how to rank the Ravens backs. So far it seems that the pecking order is Justin Forsett followed by Bernard Pierce, with Lorenzo Taliaferro third string. If you have him, Forsett is the only one I would be confident playing this week as the role for the other two has been minimal and inconsistent. The Falcons are allowing 140.2 yards per game and have given up 12 touchdowns on the season to opposing running backs. You could gamble on one of the other two as a flex that may get some goal line work, but that would be purely a gamble in my opinion.

Image source usatoday.com
New England Patriots versus the Jets on Thursday night sets up to be a big game for the Pats offense. The run game is an enigma with the injury to Stevan Ridley and the constant shifting by coach Bill Belichick. The Jets allow 92 yards per game and have only given up 2 touchdowns on the ground this year, but in the last 2 weeks they have allowed the opposing number 1 back to gain 100 yards. The passing defense of the Jets does not fare as well, allowing 235 yards per game and having given up 15 touchdowns on the season with only 1 interception. This probably the easiest start of the year if you have Tom Brady. Rob Gronkowski and Brandon LaFell  are also good starts for your fantasy teams. Julian Edelman should be his usual self, a solid flex play in a PPR league.

The Miami Dolphins and the Chicago Bears play each other in week 7, and should be able to put up good passing numbers against each other. The Dolphins give up 221.6 yards per game through the air, and have given up 10 touchdowns versus making 3 interceptions so far this season. This bodes well for Jay Cutler. The Bears have tall wide receivers that could find themselves in mismatch situations against the shorter Dolphins corners. Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Martellus Bennett are all good starts against the undersized Dolphins this week. On the flip side Chicago gives up 246.2 yards per game and also 10 touchdowns on the season, but has made 8 interceptions already. This makes Ryan Tannehill a more risky start, but elevates the value of Mike Wallace. Keep an eye on Jarvis Landry for the Dolphins as well. The rookie has been gaining momentum as of late, catching 6 balls on 8 targets last week for 75 yards and a score.

Image source beastdome.com
A power run game by the Cleveland Browns will look to take it to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Ben Tate is a must start this week against the Jags. Isaiah Crowell is a good flex possibility for a team that ran the ball 36 times against the Steelers last week. Look for that trend to continue for a ball control running team. I would expect the Jags to fall lower than their 19th ranked run defense after the Browns are done with them this week.
week 7. The Jags are giving up 117 yards per game on the ground and have given up 5 rushing touchdowns on the year.

The Houston Texans love them some Arian Foster. After getting routed on the ground by the Browns in week 6, the Pittsburgh Steelers will not be looking forward to the stout Texans running game. The Steelers give up 111.2 yards per game, and have allowed 6 rushing touchdowns on the season. The Texans will feast on the depleted defense of the Steelers Monday night.

The Bad:

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Minnesota Vikings running backs are in for a long week. This week they face the top ranked run defense of the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo is allowing a paltry 67.5 yards per game on the ground, and have not allowed a rushing touchdown on the season. With a rookie quarterback and questionable talent at wide receiver for the Vikings, it seems likely that the Bills will stack the box and dare Teddy Bridgewater to beat them through the air. Sit your Vikings running backs this week.

The Detroit Lions are playing some inspired defense so far this season. Ranked 1 in total defense and 2 against both run and pass, the New Orleans Saints have a monumental task ahead of them. And let us not forget that they will be without the services of Jimmy Graham this week. If you had a good bye week fill in for  Drew Brees last week, you may want to run him out there again this week. Add to that the fact that with the return of Mark Ingram makes the Saints backfield a quagmire once again, I am sitting any of my Saints this week.

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The San Francisco 49ers face off this week against the 4th ranked rush defense of the Denver Broncos in Denver. This is an exceedingly difficult task for the 49ers, who must play in that elevation on a short week. They also have not shown much of a commitment to running with Frank Gore or Carlos Hyde on a consistent basis so far this season. Denver is only allowing 76.5 yards per game on the ground, and has only allowed 5 rushing touchdowns on the season. Sit your 49ers backs this week.

A stout passing defense by the New England Patriots and a lack of talent on the part of the New York Jets on offense makes your Jets players good guys to be on the outside looking in this week. The Pats only allow 208.5 yards per game through the air, and have 7 interceptions on the season so far. They have allowed 10 touchdowns so far, but have stiffened in the last few weeks. If you were playing Geno Smith you are likely in trouble already, but sit him this week. Jace Amaro has been emerging of late, and with some weakness due to injuries in the middle of the Patriots defense may be able to continue his 10 catch for 68 yard and a score performance last week. Eric Decker is your only viable option in the passing game that could have good numbers, but being on Revis island is likely in his future, never a good thing.

Image source sltrib.com
The Carolina Panthers are a mess in the backfield. They have their best match up of the season against the Green Bay Packers 32nd ranked run defense, but who can you trust? They are all hurt. They all get hurt. In my opinion, Cam Newton is the only guy you can trust this week in the run game for the Panthers. And after last week he is seemingly ready to run again. If Kelvin Benjamin is out this week due to his concussion, it's going to be a difficult week for the Panthers. Greg Olsen has been a bright spot this season, and he and Cam are the only ones I would trust this week if Benjamin doesn't play. The Packers are 5th ranked against the pass, possibly because it is so easy to run. This game seems to line up as a bad and banged up run game against a bad run defense, and a bad pass game against a good pass defense. Your guess is as good as mine, but I certainly can't say I like anything in this match up for the Panthers.

Good luck and good decisions this week!