Schedules That Set Up Well

I entered a conversation on twitter about a month back about Julio Jones. My input was similar to my recent article where I lauded Jones for his talents, and also noted that his schedule was set up for him to be huge this season. A participant in this conversation said you can't rely on schedule strength from last year. Why not? Don't we need a reason to draft guys? If you see something that puts one player above others in your mind, is it not valid? This inspired me to take a look at some teams that have favorable schedules for the 2015 season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the 28th ranked schedule. Their opponents in 2015 were a combined 108-146-2, a winning percentage of .425. When you look just a bit deeper you find that the Bucs are providing Jameis Winston a lovely soft landing spot. The Tampa Bay passing offense will face defenses that average the 22nd ranked pass defense last season. They will not face any of the top 10 pass defenses from last season; in fact only playing 4 games against teams inside the top 15 last year. This should offer bountiful opportunities to Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, and if he can stay healthy Austin Sefarian-Jenkins.
The running game for Tampa is similarly facing a plus situation. The average rank of their opponents run defense is 19.6, and they face only 2 top 10 run defenses. I am not quite sure what will happen with the running back depth chart, but keep a watch on their reports, and as a guy comes to the front of the pack, targeting him in your drafts might be a good idea.

The Dallas Cowboys have the 24th ranked schedule in the league for 2015. Their opponents record for 2014 was 119-136-1 for a win percentage of .467. Losing DeMarco Murray could be a big blow to their running game with no clear successor, but their line is just so good. Dallas will only face 3 top 10 run defenses through the entire season and the average rank of their opponents defenses is 17. Combined with the talent of their line, that should set up whoever wins the job as feature back for the Cowboys pretty well.
The passing game took a step back last season, but might be forced to step forward again this season. If Dallas cannot find a back to be successful behind their top level offensive line, they might need to rely on Tony Romo and the passing game. Their opponents defenses won't be too terrible to face off against, averaging a rank of 18th against the pass. The Cowboys will only face 4 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. Obviously Dez Bryant is always a great selection at receiver. We often hear of the breakout 3rd season for a wide receiver, and we might see that this year from Terrance Williams. He scored 8 touchdowns last year on only 37 catches. I would only look at him as a late round guy who has some upside potential. If he can be more consistent you may get some value from him.

The Philadelphia Eagles have the23rd ranked schedule for the 2015 season. Their opponents record for 2014 was 121-134-1, a win percentage of .475. The addition of DeMarco Murray to the backfield running behind a top tier offensive line from last season should excite people. The Average Run Defense the Eagles will face this season is 15.5, and they will only face 5 top 10 teams from last season. Ryan Mathews is a slightly confounding component to the Philadelphia backfield, but it seems likely that DeMarco will get the bulk of the carries.
The passing game is set up even better for the Eagles this season. The average of pass defenses from last season the Eagles will face this year is 19.62, and they will only face 2 top 10 pass defenses from last season. In my opinion this should push Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, and Nelson Agholor up your boards a bit. The quarterback situation in Philly is still murky, as Mark Sanchez ended last season with the starting job, but the eagles brought in Sam Bradford, who was still injured after tearing his ACL last season with the Rams. Whichever guy wins this job just might be worth a late round pick to stash just in case.

Coming soon FantasyFootballFTW will be doing a more in depth breakdown of the schedule numbers for each team, both good and bad.

Match Up Monsters And Misses Week 10

Week 10 already. Hard to imagine that the fantasy season is winding down. Only a few more weeks until the playoffs start. It's go time. Time to make those good decisions and play your optimal lineups. I present to you my help this week with the match up monsters and misses.

The Good:

Image source: lubbockonline.com

The Dallas Cowboys have a great match up this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars on what amounts to a neutral field in London. The Jags are in the bottom of the rankings in rushing (24th, 123.4 yards per game) and passing (25th, 263.4 yards per game). If Tony Romo can stay upright during the game, look for the Cowboys to tee off on the Jags defense. Any of the starting players on the Dallas offense are good starts this week. The only guy I might worry about is Jason Witten, as he may be required to stay at the line and block this week. 

Baltimore Ravens running backs have a great opportunity this week against the 29th ranked run defense of the Titans. I would expect the Ravens to build a lead this week and lean on their running game. This week both Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro are good starters to lean on. Taliaferro has been getting the bulk of the goal line work the last few weeks, and Forsett has been great this season as the lead back after the Ray Rice suspension.

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The layup of the week seems like it would be the Pittsburgh Steelers wide receivers against the New York Jets. The Steelers have 12 receiving touchdowns in their last 2 games, and the Jets have allowed 24 passing touchdowns on the season. It is a match made in heaven. If nobody has scooped up Martavis Bryant yet, he is a must start for you this week. I would even suggest a spot start for Markus Wheaton to fill in for your bye week receivers or a flex spot.

The Denver Broncos running backs should have a game of it this week against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders have the 27th ranked rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 132.5 yards per game on the ground. In a game that is likely to get out of hand early, look for the Broncos to shorten the game by feeding their running backs and keeping the clock running.

Image source: bleacherreport.com

Andre Ellington and the Arizona Cardinals running attack have a solid match up against the 30th

ranked run defense of the St. Louis Rams. The Rams are allowing 136.2 yards per game on the ground. Look for Ellington and Marion Grice to have good games against the Rams. Not sure that I can say to start grimes, but if you are in a pinch, he has been getting some goal line work for the Cardinals in the absence of Stepfan Taylor.

I am looking for a good week from the Green Bay Packers offense this week against the Chicago Bears. The Bears have the 23rd ranked pass defense, and the Packers pass at a prolific clip. Look for great games for Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and even Davante Adams. If the Packers build a lead, expect a good workload for Eddie Lacy and maybe even James Starks if the game is totally out of hand.

The Philadelphia Eagles face off against the 18th ranked pass defense of the Carolina Panthers this week. Allowing 246.2 yards per game and 17 touchdowns through the air this season, the Panthers should provide a soft landing for the new starter for the Eagles Mark Sanchez. Expect productive days from all your regular Eagles contributors, and even the likes of Jordan Mathews and maybe even Zach Ertz. I'm starting my Eagles passing attack this week.

The Bad

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The Tennessee Titans have a difficult match up this week against the 6th ranked run defense of the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have only allowed 86.4 yards per game this season on the ground. Bishop Sankey is likely in for a long day on Sunday. The Titans will likely be throwing a lot with new starter Zach Mettenberger and his cannon arm. I would not suggest a start this week for Sankey, if he is even on your roster at this point.

Andre Williams and the New York Giants have a difficult game ahead of them this week facing the Seahawks in Seattle. The Hawks are holders of the 4th ranked run defense this season, allowing only 83 yards per game and 3 touchdowns on the ground all season. I wouldn't look for a big game from the oft under performing Williams this week in this match up.

Image source: NFL.com

The dysfunctional Chicago Bears passing game is lining up opposite the 9th ranked pass defense of

division rival Green Bay this week. Both Teams are coming off a bye, and have had plenty of time to prepare for their opponent. The Packers are allowing only 225.8 yards per game through the air, and have a 12:10 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions this year. I don't know if I can trust the Bears offense to right the ship this week.

The Oakland Raiders are facing what could end up the best improved defense in the NFL this season. The Broncos are ranked 1 in run defense, allowing 71.6 yards per game, and 21st against the pass. Last week against the Patriots a big blow was dealt to the Broncos pass defense, but the Raiders are not the Patriots. I see this game as a possible blowout for the Broncos, and your best shot at scoring with the Raiders is garbage time through the air. Sit your Raiders running backs, start James Jones and Andre Holmes if you have no other alternatives.

The Buffalo Bills have the biggest hurdle of the week in the form of the top ranked Kansas City Chiefs pass defense. The Chiefs are the only team that is allowing under 200 yards a game through the air. The Bills are possibly going to be without the services of Sammy Watkins after he hurt his groin in practice on Wednesday. If the Bills are missing him, or if he is limited in any way it's going to be a long, tough day for Kyle Orton and the Bills offense.

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Injury has put a damper on the Miami Dolphins run game for week 10. Already having lost Knowshon Moreno for the season, the Dolphins now deal with an injury to Lamar Miller. Miller has a sprained AC joint in his shoulder and may not play this week. The AC joint often gets sprained in a shoulder separation, and it can be a 4 week injury. For a guy who has the job of running into a group of large men 20+ times a game, this is not a good injury for your ball security. If Miller does play, he is a marginal play in my opinion, and if Miller doesn't play, I don't want anything to do with the Dolphins run game against the number 2 ranked run defense of the Detroit Lions.

That's our week 10 look at the Monster Match Ups and Misses. Hopefully this will help you make good decisions that propel you toward your eventual spot atop the throne of your fantasy leagues. Good luck this week!

Bargain Basement Prices

Starting your season at Seattle, against the Jets, and at Detroit is not exactly a soft landing in a new season for any running back. But this is what awaited Eddie Lacy (GB) at the beginning of the season.

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Leaving the opener early at Seattle with a concussion, Lacy only managed 34 yards on 12 carries. The Jets allowed him 43 yards on 13 carries. Detroit gave up 36 yards on 11 carries. One thing all these opponents have in common, a strong run defense. He has had a total of 6 catches in these games for 38 yards as well, which isn't adding much value to his stock.

This presents fantasy football players with an opportunity: Get Lacy on the relatively cheap. And if this suits you, the time is now. Starting next week the match ups start to look much better for Lacy. He will suit up against Chicago and Minnesota in the next 2 weeks. If you want to acquire him, it has to be before those games. If Eddie Lacy is going to improve, those are his chances.  If he does improve, the price of getting him will go up, if you can get him at all then.

If you happen to find yourself with a surplus of wide receivers it may behoove you to make an attempt to trade one of them for Lacy. I found myself, after another trade, with a plethora of quality talent at the wide receiver position, and a chance to use one of those guys to get a player that was a first round pick in most fantasy drafts. I offered the Lacy owner in my league Alshon Jeffery, the 3rd or 4th best wide receiver on my team, and a deal was made. This deal may be a little risky, but if you have the talent to spare, this is one of the better gambles to make in my estimation.

Image source espn.com

This same strategy can be applied to the other top running backs. Matt Forte (CHI) has had a slow start, and LeSean McCoy (PHI) had a disappointing game last week against Washington. If the owner of these players in your league is frustrated you may be able to get a heck of a value on a player that is primed to go off. And if they don't like what you offer, counter and see if you can come to an agreement. Bargain basement prices on talented players can only be found if you try.