After the Sunday games here is a list of players that you may want to take a look at on the wire for week 5.
RB
Jerick McKinnon (MIN) showed up in a big way against the Falcons in week 4. With 18 carries for 135 yards and a catch for 17, McKinnon seems to have found himself a place in the Minnesota backfield. McKinnon is a guy with some great raw talent, and plays Green Bay in week 5, a great match up for running backs. At this time it is uncertain if this will be a true running back by committee, but there was plenty for everyone to eat against Atlanta.
Lorenzo Taliaferro (BAL) had a decent game and got his share of the workload for the Ravens in a blowout win over the Panthers. Gaining 58 yards on 15 rushes and scoring he gets you 11.8 points. He received an equal share of carries in the Ravens rushing attack and looks to keep his portion of the committee. Indy, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta are the next 3 match ups for Baltimore and those look like some good opportunities for Taliaferro.
Justin Forsett (BAL) was the other half of the two pronged rushing game of the Ravens on Saturday. Rushing 14 times for 66 yards and a score, plus catching 3 passes for 31 yards would have earned you a cool 18.7 points in a PPR format. As with Taliaferro, the Indy, Tampa Bay, Atlanta games coming up look to provide some good scoring chances.
Bishop Sankey (TEN) was dropped in some leagues after not getting much work, and comments about his need to improve footwork. But Sunday saw him get most of the work in the second half, with 6 carries for 34 yards and a touchdown, and adding 2 catches for 23 yards. Playing him this week would have scored you 13.7 PPR points. Sankey has some good match ups coming in the next few weeks with games at Jacksonville in week 6 and Washington in week 7. If he was dropped, grab and stash.
Darrin Reaves (CAR) was forced into action this week when DeAngelo Williams left the game. Reaves didn't do much with his 12 carries, amassing only 26 yards. He also caught 3 passes for 11 yards. Reaves is in a last man standing situation. With a week to game plan with him, you may see some improvement. I wouldn't be surprised if Carolina added a back either through free agency or called upon Lache Seastrunk. Regardless, Reaves is merely speculative until he proves what he can do if given the opportunity.
TE
Heath Miller (PIT) was a big part of the Pittsburgh passing game, catching 10 balls for 85 yards and a touchdown. Miller and Ben Roethlisberger have good chemistry. Miller has been a favorite target of Big Ben in the past. This is by far his most productive game of the season so he may be worth a stash or pickup for a bye week player coming up.
Eric Ebron (DET) is the much talked about tight end for the Lions. Through his first four games he has been consistently inconsistent catching no passes in weeks 1 and 3, and 3 balls in weeks 2 and 4. This week he caught a touchdown, and with Calvin Johnson having an ankle injury, he may see more work in the future. His week 6, 7, and 8 match ups feature Minnesota, New Orleans, and Atlanta, and should he be given targets, could produce some points for you if your tight end is injured or on bye.
Jace Amaro (NYJ) was in last weeks waiver wire article, and he is back this week. His workload increased this week, catching 5 passes for 58 yards. Those are not super flashy numbers, but an increase in work is a step in the right direction. In this game he got that increase with Eric Decker playing.
Jordan Reed (WAS) has been out with an injury, but with Niles Paul having a concussion, it may be time for him to return if he is healthy. If he was dropped in your leagues he may be a good pickup for your roster. His week 5 match up could be tough against Seattle, but after that Washington plays Arizona, Tennessee, Dallas, and Minnesota, giving him some scoring opportunity. The only caveat with Reed is that so far in his young career he is apt to be injured. This makes him slightly risky, but he does have great talent when on the field.
WR
Eddie Royal (SD) had a hot start to the 2013 season, and then disappeared. His last 3 games he has 16 catches and 216 yards and 4 touchdowns. I have a hard time knowing what he did last year, doing most of his damage in the first 2 weeks of the season, suggesting a pickup, but if you have a spot or an under performing guy on your roster, Royal could be a nice addition if he keeps it up.
Allen Robinson (JAC) hasn't scored yet this year, but he has caught 12 passes in the last two weeks. On a team that will be behind a lot, he is worth a speculative pickup in a PPR format, and may pick up momentum and possibly find the end zone. I'm not dropping a good player, but with an open roster spot you may want to pick him up and see how Blake Bortles likes him.
QB
Eli Manning (NYG) has put up some solid numbers since his week 1 flop. in weeks 2-4 Manning has averaged 270 yards and has 8 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. His next 3 games against Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Dallas seem to be great match ups for the rejuvenated Manning and the Giants offense. He is a good pickup if your quarterback is under performing or in 2 quarterback leagues. Manning is a must add player this week.
Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) had a good coming out party against the soft Atlanta defense. Throwing for 317 yards, and rushing 5 times for 27 yards and a touchdown, Bridgewater is a player to look at in 2 quarterback leagues and as a possible bye week replacement. He did suffer an ankle injury this week, and plays Thursday night, so temper expectations a little this week and monitor his practice reports accordingly.
Carson Palmer (ARI) said this week that his shoulder has responded to treatment. Palmer may be the forgotten commodity in your leagues, since when looking to add a quarterback, it shows them by points. Since he hasn't played, you have to go looking for him on the list. Arizona returns from their bye in week 4 to play Denver, Washington, Oakland, Philadelphia and Dallas over the next 5 weeks. By far the worst of the match ups is week 5, with the rest looking like fantasy gravy.
Good luck this week on the wire!
My Playbook
Sunday, September 28, 2014
Friday, September 26, 2014
Garage Sale Denver Area
Taking a look at the Denver Broncos schedule and current offensive rankings, it seems like selling while you can may be a good idea. Remember when the price of gold skyrocketed? If you had a bunch of gold, and sold it all in 2011, you would have made tons of money. Now gold still has value, but it has dropped off since its highs. The same holds true for the Denver offense.
Denver has the second hardest schedule for the 2014 season. This fact has not been lost on me, seeing as I own pieces of their offense on my various teams. In the last week I have started to think about using those players to trade up to players with more favorable situations. This thought started to cross my mind as I watched the Broncos play the Seahawks in week 3 of the season. They were shut down for 3 quarters of the game. Now understood that Seattle has a formidable defense, but Seattle is far from the only difficult task throughout the season.
Looking at the Broncos schedule from after their bye in week for on, the outlook is somewhat bleak for their prospects. Let us examine the data. The defensive rankings are through the third week of the season, so small sample size, but I still think the data is likely applicable.
The Broncos opponents average total defensive ranking is 10.07 for the rest of the season. The low outliers are Kansas City at 19 and Cincinnati at 17, both on the road. Denver already played Kansas City in week 2, putting up 24 points. They only managed 88 yards rushing and did not score on the ground. Peyton Manning was 21-26 for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns. In this game Emmanuel Sanders had 8-108, and 3 different Broncos scored. The yardage production for Manning is slightly lower than you might expect against a supposedly depleted secondary at home. The high outliers are at the Jets (2nd in total D) and at New England (3).
What looks like the best case for the Broncos is the opponents run defense, coming in at an average of 15.3. Weeks 5, 6, and 7 look particularly brutal for their run game, as the worst run defense they face is 6th ranked San Francisco. After week 7 it begins to ease up slightly, possibly with some favorable run match ups against the Raiders (31) in weeks 10 and 17, the Rams (29) in week 11, Miami (20) in week 12, and Kansas City (23) in week 13.
The passing defense of Broncos opponents came in at an average of 10.8 rest of season. Only 3 of their opponents are currently ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass defense: Arizona in week 5 (19), Buffalo (26) in week 14, and Cincinnati (17) in week 16. This lends itself to the thought that even with Peyton at the controls, it might be some tough sledding for the Broncos in the passing game. I feel it necessary to note that the passing numbers for Oakland (4) may be flawed as Oakland is the second worst team against the run, so teams do not need to.
No matter what it was going to be difficult to repeat the season Denver had in 2013 in which they set a few offensive records. The difficulty has me interested in getting what I can for my Denver players. After last year, and being so early this year and post bye, you should still be able to get top dollar for many of your Denver guys. I have not been able to find a statistic ranking defense against tight ends, but Julius Thomas has been producing at a high level. I am personally not going to look at trading him where I have him. Emmanuel Sanders is also producing well, having 2 100 yard plus games and averaging 8 catches a game through the first two weeks. If you can sell pretty high on him, do it. If not, holding on to him doesn't seem a bad idea yet.
The rest of the offense is on the block in my leagues. I have been actively seeking a trade for Montee Ball in one league, and would entertain offers for Demaryius given enough value. I don't think I would take much less than another top tier wide receiver and maybe a running back of lower value. Peyton can also bring you a haul. I just traded him in a 2 quarterback league in a 5 player deal giving up Peyton and Alfred Morris and getting back Calvin Johnson, Tony Romo, and DeAndre Hopkins.
If you find the right owner, with the right mix of players, and the right needs, dealing the Denver offense is not a bad idea. You can likely get players to fill holes in your roster, and free yourself from the Broncos match up nightmares.
Denver has the second hardest schedule for the 2014 season. This fact has not been lost on me, seeing as I own pieces of their offense on my various teams. In the last week I have started to think about using those players to trade up to players with more favorable situations. This thought started to cross my mind as I watched the Broncos play the Seahawks in week 3 of the season. They were shut down for 3 quarters of the game. Now understood that Seattle has a formidable defense, but Seattle is far from the only difficult task throughout the season.
Looking at the Broncos schedule from after their bye in week for on, the outlook is somewhat bleak for their prospects. Let us examine the data. The defensive rankings are through the third week of the season, so small sample size, but I still think the data is likely applicable.
The Broncos opponents average total defensive ranking is 10.07 for the rest of the season. The low outliers are Kansas City at 19 and Cincinnati at 17, both on the road. Denver already played Kansas City in week 2, putting up 24 points. They only managed 88 yards rushing and did not score on the ground. Peyton Manning was 21-26 for 242 yards and 3 touchdowns. In this game Emmanuel Sanders had 8-108, and 3 different Broncos scored. The yardage production for Manning is slightly lower than you might expect against a supposedly depleted secondary at home. The high outliers are at the Jets (2nd in total D) and at New England (3).
What looks like the best case for the Broncos is the opponents run defense, coming in at an average of 15.3. Weeks 5, 6, and 7 look particularly brutal for their run game, as the worst run defense they face is 6th ranked San Francisco. After week 7 it begins to ease up slightly, possibly with some favorable run match ups against the Raiders (31) in weeks 10 and 17, the Rams (29) in week 11, Miami (20) in week 12, and Kansas City (23) in week 13.
The passing defense of Broncos opponents came in at an average of 10.8 rest of season. Only 3 of their opponents are currently ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass defense: Arizona in week 5 (19), Buffalo (26) in week 14, and Cincinnati (17) in week 16. This lends itself to the thought that even with Peyton at the controls, it might be some tough sledding for the Broncos in the passing game. I feel it necessary to note that the passing numbers for Oakland (4) may be flawed as Oakland is the second worst team against the run, so teams do not need to.
No matter what it was going to be difficult to repeat the season Denver had in 2013 in which they set a few offensive records. The difficulty has me interested in getting what I can for my Denver players. After last year, and being so early this year and post bye, you should still be able to get top dollar for many of your Denver guys. I have not been able to find a statistic ranking defense against tight ends, but Julius Thomas has been producing at a high level. I am personally not going to look at trading him where I have him. Emmanuel Sanders is also producing well, having 2 100 yard plus games and averaging 8 catches a game through the first two weeks. If you can sell pretty high on him, do it. If not, holding on to him doesn't seem a bad idea yet.
The rest of the offense is on the block in my leagues. I have been actively seeking a trade for Montee Ball in one league, and would entertain offers for Demaryius given enough value. I don't think I would take much less than another top tier wide receiver and maybe a running back of lower value. Peyton can also bring you a haul. I just traded him in a 2 quarterback league in a 5 player deal giving up Peyton and Alfred Morris and getting back Calvin Johnson, Tony Romo, and DeAndre Hopkins.
If you find the right owner, with the right mix of players, and the right needs, dealing the Denver offense is not a bad idea. You can likely get players to fill holes in your roster, and free yourself from the Broncos match up nightmares.
Thursday, September 25, 2014
Injured Players Coming Back
There have been some players that have been injured and left in the wind for enterprising fantasy players to pick up as they are set to return. The following is a list of some players you may find as a speculative add after waivers this week to beat your opponents to the punch.
RB
Knowshon Moreno (MIA) dislocated his elbow in the Dolphins week 2 game. The team is on bye after their game in London this week. Moreno is looking to try to make it back in week 6 after their bye. He was off to a good start, putting up great numbers in week 1. If he was dropped in your league, consider adding him now and holding on to him until he comes back.
Ben Tate (CLE) will return to his starting job in week 5, after missing time with a knee sprain. He is a bit of a wildcard as Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell have played well in his absence. While it is possible that the Browns backfield will turn into a three headed monster, the team paid Tate in the off season, and would like to get some value from his contract. Cleveland has a good offensive line that has made room for West and Crowell to run.
Toby Gerhart (JAX) had a high ankle sprain and has been part of a woeful offense. Now that the team has made the switch at quarterback to Blake Bortles, and has Cecil Shorts III back in action, teams will have a harder time just stacking the box and daring the jags to beat them in the air. This means that there will be a renewed opportunity for Gerhart to bring you some fantasy value. Stash him on your bench and see what comes of it.
DeAngelo Williams (CAR) is not a particularly great fantasy back. But being as this is a week filled with byes and many running backs are hurt or suspended, Williams may be a decent bye week fill in for your team. There is literally no running backs left in Carolina, and someone will be running the ball. After losing Mike Tolbert to the IR designated to return, and Jonathan Stewart to an injury, again, Williams is practicing in full this week and set to play. Baltimore is not the best of match ups, but in a pinch, a guy who will get 15 touches or more is better than nothing.
Bernard Pierce (BAL) is back, I think. He was practicing. It is no sure thing what his role will be in the Ravens offense this week, but facing a Panthers defense that gave up 265 yards rushing last week opens the door to the possibility that even if Pierce has a limited role, he could still be productive.
WR
Marvin Jones (CIN) has returned to practice with the Bengals during thier bye week. Jones will be the number two behind AJ Green for Cincinnati, giving him opportunity against lesser coverage. Jones had 51 catches for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2013. Some productive numbers if you have a hole at wide receiver 2 or flex on your bye weeks.
TE
Chase Ford (MIN) is not injured, but he is a possible replacement for Kyle Rudolph in the Vikings offense. Ford is a tall, big bodied tight end at 6'6" and 245. Norv Turner, the offensive coordinator for the Vikings, has a history of using his tight ends very effectively. Keep your eye on Ford as he has a chance for the next 6 weeks.
RB
Knowshon Moreno (MIA) dislocated his elbow in the Dolphins week 2 game. The team is on bye after their game in London this week. Moreno is looking to try to make it back in week 6 after their bye. He was off to a good start, putting up great numbers in week 1. If he was dropped in your league, consider adding him now and holding on to him until he comes back.
Ben Tate (CLE) will return to his starting job in week 5, after missing time with a knee sprain. He is a bit of a wildcard as Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell have played well in his absence. While it is possible that the Browns backfield will turn into a three headed monster, the team paid Tate in the off season, and would like to get some value from his contract. Cleveland has a good offensive line that has made room for West and Crowell to run.
Toby Gerhart (JAX) had a high ankle sprain and has been part of a woeful offense. Now that the team has made the switch at quarterback to Blake Bortles, and has Cecil Shorts III back in action, teams will have a harder time just stacking the box and daring the jags to beat them in the air. This means that there will be a renewed opportunity for Gerhart to bring you some fantasy value. Stash him on your bench and see what comes of it.
DeAngelo Williams (CAR) is not a particularly great fantasy back. But being as this is a week filled with byes and many running backs are hurt or suspended, Williams may be a decent bye week fill in for your team. There is literally no running backs left in Carolina, and someone will be running the ball. After losing Mike Tolbert to the IR designated to return, and Jonathan Stewart to an injury, again, Williams is practicing in full this week and set to play. Baltimore is not the best of match ups, but in a pinch, a guy who will get 15 touches or more is better than nothing.
Bernard Pierce (BAL) is back, I think. He was practicing. It is no sure thing what his role will be in the Ravens offense this week, but facing a Panthers defense that gave up 265 yards rushing last week opens the door to the possibility that even if Pierce has a limited role, he could still be productive.
WR
Marvin Jones (CIN) has returned to practice with the Bengals during thier bye week. Jones will be the number two behind AJ Green for Cincinnati, giving him opportunity against lesser coverage. Jones had 51 catches for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2013. Some productive numbers if you have a hole at wide receiver 2 or flex on your bye weeks.
TE
Chase Ford (MIN) is not injured, but he is a possible replacement for Kyle Rudolph in the Vikings offense. Ford is a tall, big bodied tight end at 6'6" and 245. Norv Turner, the offensive coordinator for the Vikings, has a history of using his tight ends very effectively. Keep your eye on Ford as he has a chance for the next 6 weeks.
Forgot About Pra(ter)
It may seem odd to find a post about a kicker for fantasy football purposes, but when the kicker is likely not owned in your league, and he is on a good team, has a good home field, is highly accurate, and is past his bye, he is a good target to add.
Matt Prater (DEN) was suspended by the NFL for the first 4 games (5 weeks) of the 2014 season. Assuming that the Broncos retain him after his suspension, Prater is a valuable commodity to your fantasy team. Playing for a team that scored 75 touchdowns and attempted 26 field goals last year means that he is likely to be quite a high scoring player for your team.
His kicking situation is fantastic, playing 6 of his remaining games this year in the thin air of Denver. Prater was a very accurate kicker last season making all 75 of his extra points and 25/26 field goal attempts. He is usually one of the first kickers to come off the board in drafts and is just sitting there for the taking.This season he will be available to cunning fantasy players who pounce on the opportunity to scoop him up.
My suggestion is to wait til late in week 5, Sunday morning is the best time, and drop a player that you either don't play, or is not performing if you don't have a bench spot available. You will have a ready-to-drop player in the kicker you play in week 5 to drop and add a player during waivers in week 6.
Matt Prater (DEN) was suspended by the NFL for the first 4 games (5 weeks) of the 2014 season. Assuming that the Broncos retain him after his suspension, Prater is a valuable commodity to your fantasy team. Playing for a team that scored 75 touchdowns and attempted 26 field goals last year means that he is likely to be quite a high scoring player for your team.
His kicking situation is fantastic, playing 6 of his remaining games this year in the thin air of Denver. Prater was a very accurate kicker last season making all 75 of his extra points and 25/26 field goal attempts. He is usually one of the first kickers to come off the board in drafts and is just sitting there for the taking.This season he will be available to cunning fantasy players who pounce on the opportunity to scoop him up.
My suggestion is to wait til late in week 5, Sunday morning is the best time, and drop a player that you either don't play, or is not performing if you don't have a bench spot available. You will have a ready-to-drop player in the kicker you play in week 5 to drop and add a player during waivers in week 6.
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Bargain Basement Prices
Starting your season at Seattle, against the Jets, and at Detroit is not exactly a soft landing in a new season for any running back. But this is what awaited Eddie Lacy (GB) at the beginning of the season.
Leaving the opener early at Seattle with a concussion, Lacy only managed 34 yards on 12 carries. The Jets allowed him 43 yards on 13 carries. Detroit gave up 36 yards on 11 carries. One thing all these opponents have in common, a strong run defense. He has had a total of 6 catches in these games for 38 yards as well, which isn't adding much value to his stock.
This presents fantasy football players with an opportunity: Get Lacy on the relatively cheap. And if this suits you, the time is now. Starting next week the match ups start to look much better for Lacy. He will suit up against Chicago and Minnesota in the next 2 weeks. If you want to acquire him, it has to be before those games. If Eddie Lacy is going to improve, those are his chances. If he does improve, the price of getting him will go up, if you can get him at all then.
If you happen to find yourself with a surplus of wide receivers it may behoove you to make an attempt to trade one of them for Lacy. I found myself, after another trade, with a plethora of quality talent at the wide receiver position, and a chance to use one of those guys to get a player that was a first round pick in most fantasy drafts. I offered the Lacy owner in my league Alshon Jeffery, the 3rd or 4th best wide receiver on my team, and a deal was made. This deal may be a little risky, but if you have the talent to spare, this is one of the better gambles to make in my estimation.
This same strategy can be applied to the other top running backs. Matt Forte (CHI) has had a slow start, and LeSean McCoy (PHI) had a disappointing game last week against Washington. If the owner of these players in your league is frustrated you may be able to get a heck of a value on a player that is primed to go off. And if they don't like what you offer, counter and see if you can come to an agreement. Bargain basement prices on talented players can only be found if you try.
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| Image source totalpackers.com |
Leaving the opener early at Seattle with a concussion, Lacy only managed 34 yards on 12 carries. The Jets allowed him 43 yards on 13 carries. Detroit gave up 36 yards on 11 carries. One thing all these opponents have in common, a strong run defense. He has had a total of 6 catches in these games for 38 yards as well, which isn't adding much value to his stock.
This presents fantasy football players with an opportunity: Get Lacy on the relatively cheap. And if this suits you, the time is now. Starting next week the match ups start to look much better for Lacy. He will suit up against Chicago and Minnesota in the next 2 weeks. If you want to acquire him, it has to be before those games. If Eddie Lacy is going to improve, those are his chances. If he does improve, the price of getting him will go up, if you can get him at all then.
If you happen to find yourself with a surplus of wide receivers it may behoove you to make an attempt to trade one of them for Lacy. I found myself, after another trade, with a plethora of quality talent at the wide receiver position, and a chance to use one of those guys to get a player that was a first round pick in most fantasy drafts. I offered the Lacy owner in my league Alshon Jeffery, the 3rd or 4th best wide receiver on my team, and a deal was made. This deal may be a little risky, but if you have the talent to spare, this is one of the better gambles to make in my estimation.
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| Image source espn.com |
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
The Resurgence of Steve Smith
Steve Smith has been in the NFL for quite a long time. He played for the Panthers from 2001-2013. This year signing with the Ravens as a free agent. It seems that his new team is allowing him an opportunity to shine once again as a fantasy receiver.
After posting his worst numbers since 2010 last year in the Panthers offense, making 64 catches on 110 targets for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns, Smith is having a resurgent year in his first season in Baltimore. Through his first three games in 2014 he has 18 catches on 32 targets for 290 yards and a touchdown. His yards per catch is tied for the third highest in his career so far this season at 16.1, and his yards per game are also the third highest in his career at 96.7.
Smith had an average draft position on ESPN fantasy football of 111. This being the case, he would be someone to target in a trade for either another wide receiver, a mid level running back, or a tight end if his current fantasy team needs some help at that position. His upcoming schedule has some very nice match ups with the likes of the Panthers in week 4, Colts in week 5, Bucs in week 6, and Falcons in week 7. Having a late bye in week 11 is a positive as well. If you trade for him now, you would get 8 serviceable weeks before having to take him out of your lineup for his bye.
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| Image source thebaltimorewire.com |
After posting his worst numbers since 2010 last year in the Panthers offense, making 64 catches on 110 targets for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns, Smith is having a resurgent year in his first season in Baltimore. Through his first three games in 2014 he has 18 catches on 32 targets for 290 yards and a touchdown. His yards per catch is tied for the third highest in his career so far this season at 16.1, and his yards per game are also the third highest in his career at 96.7.
Smith had an average draft position on ESPN fantasy football of 111. This being the case, he would be someone to target in a trade for either another wide receiver, a mid level running back, or a tight end if his current fantasy team needs some help at that position. His upcoming schedule has some very nice match ups with the likes of the Panthers in week 4, Colts in week 5, Bucs in week 6, and Falcons in week 7. Having a late bye in week 11 is a positive as well. If you trade for him now, you would get 8 serviceable weeks before having to take him out of your lineup for his bye.
The schedule also sets up nicely for smith as the fantasy playoffs begin. The Ravens play the Dolphins in week 14 who have given up 5 passing touchdowns through the first 3 weeks of the season. In week 15 they play Jacksonville who are dead last in passing defense in the league.
Smith would make a nice addition as a wide receiver 2 or flex to a team who is not happy with their current wide receiver situation, with some serious playoff upside.
Trade Target: DeAndre Hopkins
DeAndre Hopkins is starting his year off with some decent numbers for the Houston Texans. He is today's focus of the target.
Hopkins has 13 catches, 2 touchdowns, and is averaging almost 17.5 yards per catch. The number 2 wide receiver in Houston for the time being, he is likely to draw the second corner on opposing teams, and will most likely not get double coverage much. I am a fan of the talented number 2 receivers in an offense who have talent. Year 2 is often a breakout season for talented players at the position.
His upcoming match ups seem to lend themselves to the possibility of his numbers being sustainable for the duration. Buffalo in week 4 is a difficult draw for Hopkins, but after that the Texans play against the Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers who lost Ike Taylor this week with a broken arm, Tennessee Titans, and Philadelphia Eagles before their week 10 bye. This schedule provides for some good games, and has a few possible shootouts with teams that have good offense and questionable defense.
Hopkins was most likely a round 4-6 pick in your draft depending on league size and rules. This should make his price considerably less than the top tier receivers and provide a good return on your investment. I would consider offering a mid level running back if you can spare one to the Hopkins owner in your league. If said owner doesn't like the idea of trading Hopkins, take a week and if he doesn't have a good game against Buffalo, give it another try.
The fantasy playoff run starts out quite well for Hopkins schedule, before toughening up during week 16. But if your playoffs run until week 17, the Texans play Jacksonville twice in the last 4 weeks of the season. Hopkins would be a primary and affordable target for a trade who could produce monster results.
Hopkins has 13 catches, 2 touchdowns, and is averaging almost 17.5 yards per catch. The number 2 wide receiver in Houston for the time being, he is likely to draw the second corner on opposing teams, and will most likely not get double coverage much. I am a fan of the talented number 2 receivers in an offense who have talent. Year 2 is often a breakout season for talented players at the position.
His upcoming match ups seem to lend themselves to the possibility of his numbers being sustainable for the duration. Buffalo in week 4 is a difficult draw for Hopkins, but after that the Texans play against the Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers who lost Ike Taylor this week with a broken arm, Tennessee Titans, and Philadelphia Eagles before their week 10 bye. This schedule provides for some good games, and has a few possible shootouts with teams that have good offense and questionable defense.
Hopkins was most likely a round 4-6 pick in your draft depending on league size and rules. This should make his price considerably less than the top tier receivers and provide a good return on your investment. I would consider offering a mid level running back if you can spare one to the Hopkins owner in your league. If said owner doesn't like the idea of trading Hopkins, take a week and if he doesn't have a good game against Buffalo, give it another try.
The fantasy playoff run starts out quite well for Hopkins schedule, before toughening up during week 16. But if your playoffs run until week 17, the Texans play Jacksonville twice in the last 4 weeks of the season. Hopkins would be a primary and affordable target for a trade who could produce monster results.
Tight End Replacements For Week Four
The last few weeks in the NFL have taken a toll on the tight end position. With injuries and bye weeks starting in week 4 many fantasy players will be looking for a replacement for the short or long term. Here is a list of suggestions for a replacement tight end.
Larry Donnell (NYG) has been a good safety valve for Eli Manning in the first few weeks of the season. Donnell has averaged 6 catches a game and scored in week 1. If he is not owned in your league, he is a good option to pick up.
Niles Paul (WAS) has been getting targets with Jordan Reed out. Averaging 6 receptions a game for the first 3 weeks, and having a touchdown in week 2 makes him a viable addition to your team.
Owen Daniels (BAL) didn't see much action in the passing game in week 3, but he had 4 catches in week 1 and 5 in week 2 with two touchdowns. With the injury to Dennis Pitta and his familiarity in the Gary Kubiak offense, Daniels figures to see a more prominent role in the Baltimore passing attack.
Andrew Quarless (GB) had four catches and a touchdown in week 3 against Detroit. Quarless seems to have emerged as the pass catching tight end in the Green Bay offense. Some decent looking matchups against a depleted Chicago secondary in week 4 and Minnesota in week 5 set him up for success in the coming weeks.
Jace Amaro (NYJ) had 3 catches for 54 yards against Chicago Monday night. In an offense that is lacking in overall talent at pass catching positions, and has an iffy Eric Decker with a hamstring injury, Amaro may see an increased role.
Jeff Cumberland (NYJ) may see increased targets if Decker has a prolonged absence. His production has not been very big so far, but in an offense that will struggle at the outside wide receiver spots without Decker, he may be worth a speculative add in case of emergency.
Dwayne Allen (IND) has been all or nothing this season. He has scored in 2 of the first 3 games, and had no catches in the other. some tough match ups await the Colts in the near future, but if you have a desperate need at tight end, he does catch the ball.
Lance Kendricks and Jared Cook (STL) both had good games against Dallas in week three. This is likely a testament to how decimated and devoid of overall talent the Dallas defense is, so approach these guys with caution.
Larry Donnell (NYG) has been a good safety valve for Eli Manning in the first few weeks of the season. Donnell has averaged 6 catches a game and scored in week 1. If he is not owned in your league, he is a good option to pick up.
Niles Paul (WAS) has been getting targets with Jordan Reed out. Averaging 6 receptions a game for the first 3 weeks, and having a touchdown in week 2 makes him a viable addition to your team.
Owen Daniels (BAL) didn't see much action in the passing game in week 3, but he had 4 catches in week 1 and 5 in week 2 with two touchdowns. With the injury to Dennis Pitta and his familiarity in the Gary Kubiak offense, Daniels figures to see a more prominent role in the Baltimore passing attack.
Andrew Quarless (GB) had four catches and a touchdown in week 3 against Detroit. Quarless seems to have emerged as the pass catching tight end in the Green Bay offense. Some decent looking matchups against a depleted Chicago secondary in week 4 and Minnesota in week 5 set him up for success in the coming weeks.
Jace Amaro (NYJ) had 3 catches for 54 yards against Chicago Monday night. In an offense that is lacking in overall talent at pass catching positions, and has an iffy Eric Decker with a hamstring injury, Amaro may see an increased role.
Jeff Cumberland (NYJ) may see increased targets if Decker has a prolonged absence. His production has not been very big so far, but in an offense that will struggle at the outside wide receiver spots without Decker, he may be worth a speculative add in case of emergency.
Dwayne Allen (IND) has been all or nothing this season. He has scored in 2 of the first 3 games, and had no catches in the other. some tough match ups await the Colts in the near future, but if you have a desperate need at tight end, he does catch the ball.
Lance Kendricks and Jared Cook (STL) both had good games against Dallas in week three. This is likely a testament to how decimated and devoid of overall talent the Dallas defense is, so approach these guys with caution.
Monday, September 22, 2014
Waiver Wire Week 4
After the third week of the NFL season I have compiled a list of guys you might want to make a waiver claim on this week or add to your watch list for the coming weeks.
Lorenzo Taliaferro (BAL) had 18 carries for 91 yards and a touchdown in week 3 with the absence of Bernard Pierce. Considering Pierce has not looked particularly good in his opportunities as the lead back for the Ravens and did miss last week, Taliaferro is worth a look. He has a match up against Carolina in week 4 who just gave up 265 yards rushing to LeVeon Bell and LeGarrette Blount.
Andre Williams (NYG) has so far had an unimpressive complimentary role in the Giants offense with only 19 carries for 39 yards and 2 catches for 7 yards. Williams and the Giants are going into a Thursday night game with Washington following 34 rushes for Rashad Jennings. Being that Jennings is an older back, it is uncertain how his body will recover and this may be an opportunity for Williams to get some touches. If you are hurting at running back due to injuries, suspensions, or byes Williams may be a viable option.
Jeremy Kerley(NYJ) is a player to watch depending on the status of Eric Decker. Decker is questionable for the Jets Monday night game. If Decker doesn't play you can expect that Kerley will be the number one target for Geno Smith. He only has 8 targets on the season, but match ups against Chicago and Detroit offer up the possibility of some softer defensive play in the secondary.
Along with Kerley for the Jets I would keep an eye on Jeff Cumberland or Jace Amaro. So far neither of them has had a lot of use in the passing game, but if Smith's number one target is not available, those targets have to go somewhere. Not sure I would drop a good player for one of these guys, but they may see an increase nonetheless.
Alfred Blue (HOU) is a name that may have been scooped up in your leagues already. If he hasn't, get him. Arian Foster missed this weeks game and the Texans have made it a point that they want to run this year. Even if Foster is back this week, Blue may see an increased role and has some favorable match ups against Dallas, Indy, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia coming up before their week 12 bye. This week with Foster out, blue rushed for 78 yards on 13 carries and had one catch for 10 yards.
Donald Brown (SD) is the last man standing in San Diego. While he was unimpressive from an average standpoint, the Chargers gave him a ton of work. Brown had 31 carries for 62 yards and 5 catches for 27 yards in their week 3 win. If he is not already owned, he is worth a shot.
Branden Oliver (SD) is apparently the next man up behind Brown in San Diego. Not sure he gets the workload or what amount of it he will get next week with time to plan, but if the chargers do not add anyone this week, he may be worth a stash.
Andrew Quarless (GB) showed up this week for the Packers. He had 4 catches for 43 yards and a touchdown. He has only 8 targets on the year, but has some decent match ups against Chicago and Minnesota coming up in the next few weeks.
John Brown (ARI) had 2 touchdown catches this week. This shifty slot guy is fast. he already has 3 touchdowns on the season. His volume isn't high, and he has a week four bye, but he is a guy to keep an eye on and maybe stash if you have a need at flex or an empty roster spot. His match ups after they bye get juicy with Washington, Oakland, Philadelphia, and Dallas from week 6-9.
Owen Daniels (BAL) has a big chance to take over the tight end position in Baltimore. With Dennis Pitta going down for the season, Daniels is likely to see an increased role in the Kubiak offense he is already familiar with from his time in Houston. Daniels only has 10 catches on the season, but as any Pitta owner will tell you, 2 of them went for touchdowns.
Look for the possibility of Detroit signing a new kicker. Having already missed 4 kicks on the season, Detroit is likely to make a change. They already had a few veteran kickers in for a tryout. Detroit has a high powered offense and will score a lot of points giving you the chance to cherry pick a new kicker if they do make a change.
Good luck on the wire this week!
Lorenzo Taliaferro (BAL) had 18 carries for 91 yards and a touchdown in week 3 with the absence of Bernard Pierce. Considering Pierce has not looked particularly good in his opportunities as the lead back for the Ravens and did miss last week, Taliaferro is worth a look. He has a match up against Carolina in week 4 who just gave up 265 yards rushing to LeVeon Bell and LeGarrette Blount.
Andre Williams (NYG) has so far had an unimpressive complimentary role in the Giants offense with only 19 carries for 39 yards and 2 catches for 7 yards. Williams and the Giants are going into a Thursday night game with Washington following 34 rushes for Rashad Jennings. Being that Jennings is an older back, it is uncertain how his body will recover and this may be an opportunity for Williams to get some touches. If you are hurting at running back due to injuries, suspensions, or byes Williams may be a viable option.
Jeremy Kerley(NYJ) is a player to watch depending on the status of Eric Decker. Decker is questionable for the Jets Monday night game. If Decker doesn't play you can expect that Kerley will be the number one target for Geno Smith. He only has 8 targets on the season, but match ups against Chicago and Detroit offer up the possibility of some softer defensive play in the secondary.
Along with Kerley for the Jets I would keep an eye on Jeff Cumberland or Jace Amaro. So far neither of them has had a lot of use in the passing game, but if Smith's number one target is not available, those targets have to go somewhere. Not sure I would drop a good player for one of these guys, but they may see an increase nonetheless.
Alfred Blue (HOU) is a name that may have been scooped up in your leagues already. If he hasn't, get him. Arian Foster missed this weeks game and the Texans have made it a point that they want to run this year. Even if Foster is back this week, Blue may see an increased role and has some favorable match ups against Dallas, Indy, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia coming up before their week 12 bye. This week with Foster out, blue rushed for 78 yards on 13 carries and had one catch for 10 yards.
Donald Brown (SD) is the last man standing in San Diego. While he was unimpressive from an average standpoint, the Chargers gave him a ton of work. Brown had 31 carries for 62 yards and 5 catches for 27 yards in their week 3 win. If he is not already owned, he is worth a shot.
Branden Oliver (SD) is apparently the next man up behind Brown in San Diego. Not sure he gets the workload or what amount of it he will get next week with time to plan, but if the chargers do not add anyone this week, he may be worth a stash.
Andrew Quarless (GB) showed up this week for the Packers. He had 4 catches for 43 yards and a touchdown. He has only 8 targets on the year, but has some decent match ups against Chicago and Minnesota coming up in the next few weeks.
John Brown (ARI) had 2 touchdown catches this week. This shifty slot guy is fast. he already has 3 touchdowns on the season. His volume isn't high, and he has a week four bye, but he is a guy to keep an eye on and maybe stash if you have a need at flex or an empty roster spot. His match ups after they bye get juicy with Washington, Oakland, Philadelphia, and Dallas from week 6-9.
Owen Daniels (BAL) has a big chance to take over the tight end position in Baltimore. With Dennis Pitta going down for the season, Daniels is likely to see an increased role in the Kubiak offense he is already familiar with from his time in Houston. Daniels only has 10 catches on the season, but as any Pitta owner will tell you, 2 of them went for touchdowns.
Look for the possibility of Detroit signing a new kicker. Having already missed 4 kicks on the season, Detroit is likely to make a change. They already had a few veteran kickers in for a tryout. Detroit has a high powered offense and will score a lot of points giving you the chance to cherry pick a new kicker if they do make a change.
Good luck on the wire this week!
It's Never Too Early To Start Thinking Playoffs: The Bad
Now that you know who I like for your playoff push, let me tell you about who I don't like. This article will focus on the match ups that I don't like during the fantasy playoffs.
Number one on my list of teams I don't like for the playoffs is the New England Patriots. Their final four games are at San Diego, home for Miami, at the Jets, and home against the Bills. First of all, Tom Brady hasn't quite looked like the Brady of old. Some of this may be due to the lack of overall weapons in the offense, or it could be due to a drop off in his talent. Rob Gronkowski has a history of injuries making his participation late in the season difficult to count on. Other than that, they have a few second year receivers that have a hard time keeping on the field and holding on to the ball when they are playing. Julian Edelman, health permitting, is a bright spot in a PPR league, but he has also been inconsistent in the past. The running back situation is famously unpredictable. Just look at the first two weeks of this season. Shane Vereen had a great week one, and almost nothing in week two. Stevan Ridley has such a history of fumbling, that he may find his way to the bench or off the team at any time. These facts make it hard to trust any of the New England backfield. Add this to the fact that they play what looks like three or four decent defenses in the last four weeks, and it sure makes New England hands off for me.
Next up the San Diego chargers. They play New England at home, Denver at home, at San Francisco, and home for Kansas City. While they play three of four at home, the teams they play all have decent defenses, with Kansas City being the biggest suspect due to losses. Ryan Matthews is already hurt, and has a history, even though he stayed healthy and thrived late last season. Danny Woodhead has had a diminished role so far, and unless it increases with the loss of Matthews, is not a good option. If his role does increase, he makes a good running back two in a PPR league. Malcolm Floyd has had some consistency issues in the past, and is not likely the second or third option in the passing game. Keenan Allen thrived last season after all of the Chargers receivers were hurt, but so far this season has been shut down. Antonio Gates, despite a huge game in week two against the Seahawks, is the elder statesman of the San Diego attack, and I have concerns about his durability. And Ladarius Green needs to find the field to get any consideration. Donald Brown is currently a wildcard. His role will be defined, and likely changed over the next month with Matthews out and when he comes back. This all seems to lend itself to a general dislike of Phillip Rivers as well. If you don't like any of a quarterback's targets, it's difficult to say that you like him. He started last season hot, then lost momentum as the second half of the season featured more running. He had a near flawless game at the Seahawks week two, but that is unlikely to be a weekly occurrence.
Pittsburgh appears next on the list of teams to stay away from for your fantasy playoffs. At Cincinnati, at Atlanta, home for Kansas city, and home against Cincinnati finishes out their season. Cincinnati has a tough defense. Kansas City has one as well if they can remain healthy. Atlanta is likely the weakest defensive match up, but playing in Atlanta is not desirable. Ben Roethlisberger has been a solid NFL quarterback, but is not much of a fantasy option. The best of the players on the Pittsburgh roster are LeVeon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Markus Wheaton. Wheaton is a rookie, and often rookies are not quite ready to be big producers. He may be a decent flex play in a PPR league if his role continues to grow throughout the season. Antonio Brown is fairly match up proof, seeing as he just had a solid game against Joe Haden, one of the leagues best shutdown corner backs. LeVeon Bell is going to cost you a hefty price. He is the workhorse for the Steelers. Good in the running game as well as a viable option to catch passes out of the backfield. Due to price he will be hard to acquire.
Indianapolis is our next team to take a closer look at. At Cleveland, home for Houston, at Dallas, and at Tennessee. That's three of their last four on the road, and the home game they do have is against one heck of a defensive team. The colts are trying to be a power running team under Pep Hamilton, yet they lack the personnel. Trent Richardson has shown nothing in the three seasons he has been in the NFL. TY Hilton is a guy who will get you a few huge games throughout the season, but he is very inconsistent. Reggie Wayne is the best option from the Colts as a wide receiver, making a much better PPR play. Andrew Luck is a solid quarterback with the ability to run or throw, but the price tag is likely to be high as he was a fairly high draft pick at quarterback. Ahmad Bradshaw is the best running back on the Colts. If they can figure this out, and use him well he can be a decent running back two or flex play. Due to his age and injury history he is somewhat of a risky play.
The Miami Dolphins make my list next. Home for Baltimore, at New England, home for Minnesota, and home against the New York Jets. While three of their final four are at home, they play three defenses that are annually among the best. Minnesota in week sixteen is the best of these match ups. Knowshon Moreno is currently out with a dislocated elbow, but if healthy, in shape, and getting the looks he can be a solid running back two or flex play. Problem is that the Dolphins also use Lamar Miller in a committee approach. The receiving corps has two decent options. Mike Wallace has been inconsistent and looks like he may have some chemistry and timing problems with quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Brian Hartline is a decent player in a PPR league, but he is not likely to put up any huge numbers for your team.
The final team we will look at individually in this article is the Denver Broncos. Finishing up the season home against Buffalo, at San Diego, at Cincinnati, and home against Oakland. Given the record setting season last year and the high ownership of the players for the Broncos, it will be difficult and expensive to gain ownership of their players in your leagues. Buffalo has a reasonably stout defense and has a chance to slow down this juggernaut offense. Playing at San Diego, a division rival, is always a tough game, Denver having been beaten last year by the Chargers. Cincinnati has a very good defense and will be a tough match up for the Broncos. If your league does play in week 17, Oakland is quite a good match up for the Broncos. One thing you may consider is to trade your Denver players for some of the players that have the softer schedules included in my article on players to acquire. You may be able to get premium value for your Denver wide receivers and for Peyton Manning.
Special mention goes to the NFC West. The best schedule during the fantasy playoff weeks belongs to the worst offense in the NFC West. The St. Louis Rams play at Washington in week 14, and home against the New York Giants in week 16. These should be good match ups against bad defenses, but the Rams are not a good offensive team. Most of these teams play division games in the last four weeks of the season. I would say that your best be the running backs of these teams if you are looking to any of them. Many of the division games have been decided on ball control and clock management by these teams.
Good luck on making it to your playoffs, and if you get there, DOMINATE!
Number one on my list of teams I don't like for the playoffs is the New England Patriots. Their final four games are at San Diego, home for Miami, at the Jets, and home against the Bills. First of all, Tom Brady hasn't quite looked like the Brady of old. Some of this may be due to the lack of overall weapons in the offense, or it could be due to a drop off in his talent. Rob Gronkowski has a history of injuries making his participation late in the season difficult to count on. Other than that, they have a few second year receivers that have a hard time keeping on the field and holding on to the ball when they are playing. Julian Edelman, health permitting, is a bright spot in a PPR league, but he has also been inconsistent in the past. The running back situation is famously unpredictable. Just look at the first two weeks of this season. Shane Vereen had a great week one, and almost nothing in week two. Stevan Ridley has such a history of fumbling, that he may find his way to the bench or off the team at any time. These facts make it hard to trust any of the New England backfield. Add this to the fact that they play what looks like three or four decent defenses in the last four weeks, and it sure makes New England hands off for me.
Next up the San Diego chargers. They play New England at home, Denver at home, at San Francisco, and home for Kansas City. While they play three of four at home, the teams they play all have decent defenses, with Kansas City being the biggest suspect due to losses. Ryan Matthews is already hurt, and has a history, even though he stayed healthy and thrived late last season. Danny Woodhead has had a diminished role so far, and unless it increases with the loss of Matthews, is not a good option. If his role does increase, he makes a good running back two in a PPR league. Malcolm Floyd has had some consistency issues in the past, and is not likely the second or third option in the passing game. Keenan Allen thrived last season after all of the Chargers receivers were hurt, but so far this season has been shut down. Antonio Gates, despite a huge game in week two against the Seahawks, is the elder statesman of the San Diego attack, and I have concerns about his durability. And Ladarius Green needs to find the field to get any consideration. Donald Brown is currently a wildcard. His role will be defined, and likely changed over the next month with Matthews out and when he comes back. This all seems to lend itself to a general dislike of Phillip Rivers as well. If you don't like any of a quarterback's targets, it's difficult to say that you like him. He started last season hot, then lost momentum as the second half of the season featured more running. He had a near flawless game at the Seahawks week two, but that is unlikely to be a weekly occurrence.
Pittsburgh appears next on the list of teams to stay away from for your fantasy playoffs. At Cincinnati, at Atlanta, home for Kansas city, and home against Cincinnati finishes out their season. Cincinnati has a tough defense. Kansas City has one as well if they can remain healthy. Atlanta is likely the weakest defensive match up, but playing in Atlanta is not desirable. Ben Roethlisberger has been a solid NFL quarterback, but is not much of a fantasy option. The best of the players on the Pittsburgh roster are LeVeon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Markus Wheaton. Wheaton is a rookie, and often rookies are not quite ready to be big producers. He may be a decent flex play in a PPR league if his role continues to grow throughout the season. Antonio Brown is fairly match up proof, seeing as he just had a solid game against Joe Haden, one of the leagues best shutdown corner backs. LeVeon Bell is going to cost you a hefty price. He is the workhorse for the Steelers. Good in the running game as well as a viable option to catch passes out of the backfield. Due to price he will be hard to acquire.
Indianapolis is our next team to take a closer look at. At Cleveland, home for Houston, at Dallas, and at Tennessee. That's three of their last four on the road, and the home game they do have is against one heck of a defensive team. The colts are trying to be a power running team under Pep Hamilton, yet they lack the personnel. Trent Richardson has shown nothing in the three seasons he has been in the NFL. TY Hilton is a guy who will get you a few huge games throughout the season, but he is very inconsistent. Reggie Wayne is the best option from the Colts as a wide receiver, making a much better PPR play. Andrew Luck is a solid quarterback with the ability to run or throw, but the price tag is likely to be high as he was a fairly high draft pick at quarterback. Ahmad Bradshaw is the best running back on the Colts. If they can figure this out, and use him well he can be a decent running back two or flex play. Due to his age and injury history he is somewhat of a risky play.
The Miami Dolphins make my list next. Home for Baltimore, at New England, home for Minnesota, and home against the New York Jets. While three of their final four are at home, they play three defenses that are annually among the best. Minnesota in week sixteen is the best of these match ups. Knowshon Moreno is currently out with a dislocated elbow, but if healthy, in shape, and getting the looks he can be a solid running back two or flex play. Problem is that the Dolphins also use Lamar Miller in a committee approach. The receiving corps has two decent options. Mike Wallace has been inconsistent and looks like he may have some chemistry and timing problems with quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Brian Hartline is a decent player in a PPR league, but he is not likely to put up any huge numbers for your team.
The final team we will look at individually in this article is the Denver Broncos. Finishing up the season home against Buffalo, at San Diego, at Cincinnati, and home against Oakland. Given the record setting season last year and the high ownership of the players for the Broncos, it will be difficult and expensive to gain ownership of their players in your leagues. Buffalo has a reasonably stout defense and has a chance to slow down this juggernaut offense. Playing at San Diego, a division rival, is always a tough game, Denver having been beaten last year by the Chargers. Cincinnati has a very good defense and will be a tough match up for the Broncos. If your league does play in week 17, Oakland is quite a good match up for the Broncos. One thing you may consider is to trade your Denver players for some of the players that have the softer schedules included in my article on players to acquire. You may be able to get premium value for your Denver wide receivers and for Peyton Manning.
Special mention goes to the NFC West. The best schedule during the fantasy playoff weeks belongs to the worst offense in the NFC West. The St. Louis Rams play at Washington in week 14, and home against the New York Giants in week 16. These should be good match ups against bad defenses, but the Rams are not a good offensive team. Most of these teams play division games in the last four weeks of the season. I would say that your best be the running backs of these teams if you are looking to any of them. Many of the division games have been decided on ball control and clock management by these teams.
Good luck on making it to your playoffs, and if you get there, DOMINATE!
Friday, September 19, 2014
It's Never Too Early To Start Thinking Playoffs: The Good
I know it's only week 3, but it's never too early to set yourself up for playoff success. I have compiled a list of teams that have good and bad schedules through the fantasy playoffs. This list includes a lot of players that will do well during the regular season as well, but this will focus on weeks 14-17 on the NFL schedule. Today's post is for the players and teams with good match ups for the fantasy playoffs.
First up on my most desired team list is the Detroit Lions. Detroit's Playoff schedule is quite favorable. Home against Tampa Bay, home against Minnesota, at Chicago, and at Green Bay. If your playoffs go week 14-16, all of these match ups are good, and week 17 is solid as well. Tampa bay has looked terrible. Minnesota is a mess, and Chicago can't stop the run and just lost Tillman for the year. Now I know you may not be able to wrestle Megatron or Stafford away from their owner, but Detroit's high powered offense has plenty of weapons for you to look for. Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, and Golden Tate are all primed for great seasons. The playoff match ups make them some of the more desirable players for me. You may also want to keep an eye on Eric Ebron, just in case he starts to get it and gets involved. At this point in the season, all these guys, with exception of Megatron, shouldn't cost you too much, and will set you up to win that championship.
Second up on the list is the Dallas Cowboys. Yes I realize that Tony Romo is a huge choke artist. but their schedule sets up well for the playoffs. At Chicago, at Philadelphia, home for Indianapolis, and at Washington. I know that three of the final four are on the road, but so far the only one that looks like they have any sort of defense is the Eagles, and that isn't saying much with this list. Dez Bryant falls under a similar list as Calvin Johnson does, might be too expensive, but Terrance Williams may not cost you too much, and may not even be rostered in your leagues. Jason Witten has not been very involved so far, and should come fairly cheap. DeMarco Murray will cost you a pretty penny, but Lance Dunbar is likely floating around the waiver wire, and if you can afford a roster spot on your bench, Murray has quite an injury history. As for Tony Romo, two disappointing weeks will likely leave him costing less, but lets remember he is a choke artist of the highest order.
Third we have the Chicago Bears. Mark Trestman is apparently the offensive genius that he is made out to be. Just look at what Josh McCown did in week 3 against the mighty Atlanta defense. Chicago plays Dallas at home, New Orleans at home, Detroit at home, and at Minnesota their final four games of the season. All of these teams have suspect secondaries and three of them have trouble with stopping the run. Guys like Marshall and Forte might be in that too expensive category, but with Alshon Jeffery currently nursing a hamstring injury, if you can offer his current team owner a solid starting option, he may be willing to part with him. Martellus Bennett has been a big part of the offense in the first two weeks. Sure some of that may be due to the fact that Jeffery has been slowed, but he is putting up solid numbers so far. Jay Cutler is a bit of a wildcard. He has a history of injuries, and the offensive line he is behind has been bad and is dealing with some injuries, but if you don't have Peyton, Rodgers, or Brees he might be a guy you look to pick up. Chicago also has a fairly good schedule all season.
Next up the Atlanta Falcons. Fresh off a 56-14 drubbing of the Tampa Bay Bucs, these guys are going to be hot. Julio Jones is an absolute monster when he is healthy. Atlanta plays at Green Bay, home against Pittsburgh, at New Orleans, and home against Carolina to finish the season. Obviously Carolina is not a great matchup, but the rest look good. Roddy White missed the Tampa Bay game, which may make trading for him much cheaper. Harry Douglas left that game with an injury, but hes a flex option if healthy at the end of the season. Devin Hester is another to keep an eye on. If your league rules give points for kick returner touchdowns, he is obviously a threat to take one to the house at any time, and has been working on offense a lot more than expected. Not quite sure what to make of the running back position with Atlanta. Stephen Jackson as the lead back is at the point of a running back career where he is over the hill. He dealt with injuries last season, and hasn't done a ton so far this year, although he did score against the Bucs. Devonta Freeman is believed to be the handcuff for Jackson, but I'm not sure I want to roster any of the backs from Atlanta. Give me the wide receivers and Matty Ice.
The Philadelphia Eagles are next on my list of teams I'd like to own. Week 14 is a tough match up against the Seahawks, although it is at home. After that they are home against Dallas, at Washington, and at the Giants. The latter of these matchups, even with two road games, looks fantastic for your playoffs. There are plenty of options at wide receiver and tight end with the Eagles. Assuming health, Jeremy Maclin is fast and can score at any moment. If Riley Cooper can get on the same page as Nick Foles, he is a big receiver who can do well in close situations, or catch the occasional long bomb. Zac Ertz at tight end is a good red zone target for Foles as well. LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles are a dynamic duo out of the backfield. Sproles is coming off a huge game in week two, and the price is going to be high, but he is a perfect fit for the Chip Kelly offense. McCoy will also likely be expensive to trade for since he likely went in the top 5 picks in your draft. If not can I play in your leagues?
Then we have the Carolina Panthers. At New Orleans, home versus Tampa Bay, home versus Cleveland, and at Atlanta round out their playoff schedule. I have a few concerns with the Panthers offense, but their schedule is good so you may want to acquire some of their players. Top of the list is Cam Newton. His track record is excellent. Top 5 fantasy quarterback every year. Solid passer, and gets you rushing yards and touchdowns. Greg Olsen, good tight end. Kelvin Benjamin, good receiver. Needs to soften up those stone hands, but one of the most NFL ready receivers I've seen. These are the guys I would look to own. Keep an eye on Jason Avant, but he's not currently on my radar. The running back situation in Carolina is currently a quagmire. Jonathan Stewart is the only one healthy. That seems a little ironic, dontcha think? and Tolbert and Newton are goal line touchdown vultures. I wouldn't make a huge effort to roster a Carolina running back. If you have a bench spot available, Stewart or DeAngelo may be worth stashing, but not to drop someone more useful.
The Green Bay Packers make my list next. High powered offense. Home against Atlanta, at buffalo, at Tampa Bay, and home against the Lions rounds out the season. Aaron Rodgers, if you didn't draft him, you probably aren't getting him. Eddie Lacy, off to a slow start, but due to his high draft position, will probably be expensive. Jordy Nelson went for over 200 yards last week and Randall Cobb had two touchdowns.Prices for these guys are going to be high. It's not a secret that Green Bay has a good offense. The guy to watch is Davante Adams. It is seeming like he has taken over the third wide receiver spot for Green Bay. This offense is definitely good enough to support a third wide receiver and at least three of the playoff matchups feature secondaries that will not be likely to keep up with the Pack's attack. The only tight end to have any fantasy points for Green Bay after their first two games is Andrew Quarless, and its not much. Keep an eye on what develops, but as of now, no tight end with the Packers is worth snagging.
The Washington team is next. I'm on board with not using their name, as many find it offensive, and I am not interested in using an offensive term here. Home against St. Louis, at the Giants, home against Philadelphia, home against Dallas. St. Louis is the outlier here, possessing the best defense of the late season opponents for Washington. Kirk Cousins is the quarterback currently after the injury to Robert Griffin III. He got some starts last year, and had mixed results. the Jay Gruden offense seems like it will be a good fit for him, but time will tell. In relief of RG3 in week two, Cousins did well. It is likely that he is available or would be cheap to acquire, but this one is a gamble for sure. Pierre Garçon is a quality player and will likely be more involved than he was in week two. You could try to use the week two stats where he only had one catch to buy low on him. DeSean Jackson hurt his AC joint in his shoulder. This often can happen when there is a dislocation of the shoulder and makes it hard to reach up. If this heals up well, he should be just fine, but try to use that to drive his cost down. Jackson is a legit deep threat and can hit a home run at any time. In a standard league Alfred Morris is a workhorse back. He piles up yardage, but often in the past has lost goal line work to Roy Helu. I would not own Helu myself. He will have a game or two that are great. If you know when, can you tell me? Niles Paul was great in week two. Not sure what is going to happen when Jordan Reed gets back. The Bengals did use two tight end sets in Gruden's offense in the past, so that isn't out of the question. The lack of defense for Washington will lead to the high possibility that they will be in shootouts or be behind a lot. This is a knock down for Morris, but he will still get his carries. If Griffin comes back, I personally want no part of him, and it knocks all the other players except Morris down a notch for me.
Last but not least for me, the New Orleans Saints. The Saints schedule finishes home against Carolina, at Chicago, home against Atlanta, and at Tampa Bay. Drew Brees is off to a slow start. This may help his price, but since he was likely a top 3 drafted quarterback in your leagues, his price will remain high. Jimmy Graham is an amazing player, and he will also cost you an amazing amount if you even could make a deal for him. Of the wide receivers, the only one I have any real interest in at the moment is Brandin Cooks. In a PPR league, cooks should catch a lot of balls. He is likely to be used on some bubble screens and is a good target down the field as well and is also quite fast and can make big plays at any time. The running back situation in New Orleans is always tricky. To start the season Mark Ingram was doing well. Then he broke his hand. See if you can get him on the cheap from his owner in case he resumes the same role he was playing the first two weeks of the season. Pierre Thomas caught a lot of balls last season, and through the first two weeks of this year is averaging 4.5 catches per game. Khiry Robinson will have an increased presence in the offense with Ingram out, but when he is back, its not certain who will have what roles. I would try to get Thomas on the cheap in a PPR league, and Ingram cheap. Robinson was likely picked up on waivers this week and his team owner will likely not want to give him up before he sees what kind of usage he will be getting.
This brings us to the end of my teams and guys you want to get list. In the coming days I will be posting a list of the guys and teams I think you should avoid. Good Luck this weekend and happy shopping!
The Zero Running Back Strategy And Mid-round Pass Catchers
I personally play in 4 fantasy leagues this season. Three of
the four are PPR (point per reception) leagues. I like this format as it is a
higher scoring format, and makes some selections during draft time require more
finesse and strategy.
In preparing for my leagues last season I came up with
the idea that I wanted to get 2 or 3 high volume wide receivers and forgo
running backs in the first few rounds. Three depends on the presence of a
flex spot in your leagues. My main goals were: Get Calvin Johnson as often as
possible, Get someone like Demarius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green. Basically
to get two of the most highly ranked receivers that catches a high volume of passes. These guys are usually match up
proof and get between 85-100 catches a year. In a PPR format this leads to
85-100 more points, making someone like Calvin Johnson have a similar value to
Peyton Manning last year during a record setting season.
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| Image source huffingtonpost.com |
Now to your running backs. If you take 2 wide receivers in a row,
you will still find some teams starting running backs in round 3. These guys
won’t be the bell cow workhorse guys for their team, but a starting running
back has value in any fantasy league. The key is the round 4 through 6
picks. This is the area where you need to have an idea about what the people in
your draft like to do, as well as the average draft positions of the players
you want to take. I don't mind a small reach to get a guy I really want on my team if I am certain he won't come back to me at my next pick. At the same time, if there are a few players you like in this portion of the draft, reaching may not be your best option. This year I did lots of mock drafts, from every possible
draft position, to make sure that I had an idea of where the guys I really
liked went. Your league, like mine, will be filled with the “average” player. Some
better than others, but you can get a general idea about where players are
going.
These rounds are where I like to target my pass catching running backs. Players like Danny Woodhead, Darren Sproles, and Joique Bell were going in this range this season. While Woodhead is off to a slow start, I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a surge now that Ryan Matthews is out for a while. And we have all seen what Sproles has done the first few weeks of the season. I have a feeling Joique Bell is about to explode in that Detroit offense. I think he is the best back on that team, and I think they figured that out week 1. If you can land one or two of these guys in a PPR league and they get you 3-5 catches a week and a TD every 2-3 weeks, you will be a happy camper. Back fill with some running back depth, another wide receiver, and a solid late bye defense and kicker, and you have a recipe for success.
These rounds are where I like to target my pass catching running backs. Players like Danny Woodhead, Darren Sproles, and Joique Bell were going in this range this season. While Woodhead is off to a slow start, I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a surge now that Ryan Matthews is out for a while. And we have all seen what Sproles has done the first few weeks of the season. I have a feeling Joique Bell is about to explode in that Detroit offense. I think he is the best back on that team, and I think they figured that out week 1. If you can land one or two of these guys in a PPR league and they get you 3-5 catches a week and a TD every 2-3 weeks, you will be a happy camper. Back fill with some running back depth, another wide receiver, and a solid late bye defense and kicker, and you have a recipe for success.
TY Hilton Is Not Your Guy
Like many other fantasy football players, I have fallen victim to the hype on TY Hilton. He’s a super athletic player, lots of talent potential. But he has consistently failed to live up to the hype over the years. Hilton has put up some amazing games at times. For a guy who is consistently near the top of the list in targets, he fails at capitalizing on those targets.
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| Image source Jacksonville.com |
Last season, spending much of it as the number one wide receiver on the Colts after Reggie Wayne tore his ACL, Hilton received 108 targets making 72 catches for a catch rate of 66%. On those 72 catches he gained 689 yards for an average of 9.56 yards per catch. On those 72 catches as the number one guy, he scored a total of three touchdowns. Three. All of them in the first week after Wayne went down.
Now you might say that this is because he was now receiving more attention from the DBs of the other team. While this may or may not be true, his numbers don’t hash out a better performance with Wayne on the field. In the seven weeks with Wayne, Hilton made 27 catches for 412 yards. While his yards per catch were better over this time, 15.26, he only scored 2 touchdowns during this seven game stretch. And in week seven when Wayne went down Hilton got 11 targets and made only 2 catches.
This makes Hilton unownable in my opinion for fantasy purposes. If he is on your roster I would consider trading him for whatever you can get for him. Maybe a decent defense with a late bye so you don’t have to worry about changing for a while. Another option is to try to sell the Andrew Luck owner on him as a way to double dip fantasy points, but don’t quote this article.
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