Reggie Bush has found his way to his fourth team in his NFL
career. Starting out in New Orleans, and arguably being misused in their
offense, Bush moved on to Miami for two fairly productive seasons. Following
Miami, Bush spent two seasons in Detroit, last season hampered by injuries. And
finally in 2015 Bush will find himself in with the San Francisco 49ers. Likely
his last stop entering his 10th season in the NFL, Bush is set up
for success as long as he can stay healthy.
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| Image source: 49ers.com |
Bush has not been the model of efficiency
using the
consistency report from Bob Lung. With 24
quality games out of 41 in his last three seasons, Bush has been a 59% consistent
player. He has played well against bad defenses with a 100% consistent
performance on the road, and 71% at home. Bush scored well at home against
middle ranked defense at 60% consistent, but bad on the road against this tier
with no quality games. Surprisingly against good defenses Bush is more
consistent on the road than at home.
The way I am looking at the 49ers schedule and Bush for the
2015 season is in respect to passing downs. The attrition that the 49ers faced
this offseason leaves the cupboard bare on defense, and I believe they will be
a shell of their former selves. This leads me to believe that they will be
trailing a fair amount this season and will be throwing a lot. This is where we
see the value in Bush. He will likely be inheriting the passing downs work, and
if San Francisco is behind, a lot of downs will be passing downs.
In regards to defenses they will face this season, the
passing defenses are the softer spot for San Francisco. They face an average
pass defense of 17.87, the 10th best. They face five Top 10 pass
defenses from a season ago. Compare this to the 23rd ranked run
defense schedule at an average rank of 14.93 and five Top 10 run defenses. With
the mess the 49ers will probably be on defense, and difficult run defense
schedule, I can see them spending a lot of time trying to catch up by passing.
San Francisco plays in one of the toughest divisions in
football. The defenses they face in Seattle, St. Louis, and Arizona are no
joke. They all sport tough, hard hitting defenses. The worst rank any
divisional foe had in run defense was 14 last season. The Cardinals and rams
were ranked worse in pass than run last season, meaning that the vulnerability
they did show favors Bush.
Additionally, the bye week for the 49ers is a late one this
season. Week 10 is when San Francisco will be taking a week off. If Bush hit,
you can plug him into a flex spot in the lineup for a long duration of the Fantasy
season.
The big caveat for Bush will be staying healthy.
He is not a
young man anymore with respect to being a running back. Entering his 10th
season in the NFL, health will be the big concern for Bush. He has missed 7
games the last two seasons, and was not particularly effective last season. In
2014 he only had about 550 yards from scrimmage and two scores. The positive in
the respect is his average draft position. He amounts to a lottery ticket for
Fantasy owners this year. The current average draft position for Reggie is 120 according to fantasypros.com.
This means that in a 12 team league he is a pick at the 10th and 11th
round turn. By this point in the draft he makes perfect sense as a guy with
some upside after you have your starting core established.
With all the signs in San Francisco pointing towards them
pushing the reset button
on the team and cleaning house, Reggie Bush might be
the diamond in the rough that can help your fantasy team in the 2015 season. If
he can stay healthy, and San Francisco plays as bad on defense as it looks like
they will, Bush has a big chance to see a lot of playing time. For a 10 or 11
Bush can be the lottery ticket that helps Fantasy owners bring home a championship.
