Auction Values and Strategy

Iconic rock band Van Halen said it best with the classic rock track "Everybody Wants Some" back in 1980. Granted some of you may not have be born yet, so I may be carbon dating myself for this purpose. If you've ever heard the chorus to the relatively ancient tune, after the title line is sung it's followed by David Lee Roth squealing "I want some too!"

 

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When it comes to fantasy football auctions, team managers want value. To which Roth asks, "Baby how 'bout you?"

The song has become a soundtrack for me every fantasy football draft season, and I would rather have it turn out my way than the 80's movie in which it's featured, Better Off Dead. Most consider the auction draft intimidating, and my first season playing fantasy football I agreed. I was invited to play with some former high school buddies that were looking to replace a team manager that had gotten fed up with league politics and quit. Not knowing what I was in for, I proceeded to overpay for players and barely filled out a competitive roster by the time auction was finished. My season was tanked by the choice of over bidding on an oft injured Rashard Mendenhall, then blowing all of my free agent budget on Isaac Redman and a young Jonathan Dwyer; all of whom got injured at some point. It stung so much that I forsook auction drafts altogether for years, also most leagues I was in weren't doing them, until last year.

In this article I'll cover some auction strategy and a few players that could be value plays and help you win in your leagues this season. In any draft, you're not going to enjoy setting your roster every week if you have guys that you don't enjoy rooting for, so it's important to budget your loot accordingly to allow you to fill positions with the studs that you want. A way to do this is to tier your player rankings at each position. Most of you should already be doing this for your snake drafts, the difference being placing dollar amounts on guys instead of their average draft position.

I recommend using an auction value calculator,

then raising the dollar amounts for the players you really want from there, but try to keep it within reason. Obviously spending over a quarter of your budget on one guy means you are going to have to count on some major bargains in the latter part of the auction. Use the cheat sheet as a guideline, keeping in mind other league mates may have the same prices on players that you do, and won't stop bidding until someone gives up. Know when to concede for the greater good of your team, a true squad goal.

Player nomination strategies

A classic auction strategy is to nominate the high ranking players that you don't like as much as everyone else in your league. You increase your odds for getting players by ultimately reducing the number of owners that can bid, because they're either filled at the position or they're low on dough. I've been in draft rooms where owners don't spend a dollar for the first five or so player nominations, while I was throwing loot like it was a strip club. None of that this season. That's what the mocks were for.                                                                                                                                                  

Jeremy Hill went for $1 in one of my leagues last year and was almost the last player nominated, and I of course had spent $25 on Giovanni Bernard. The tip here is to keep your eyes peeled for late nominated players with upside. In my experience these players are handcuff running backs, but can come from any position, including individual defensive players, IDP. There is also a lot of value to be had from players who come into the season injured.

Three value picks for 2015

  

Eli Manning $6 - Absolutely love the bad comedian with cable this year. McAdoo's offense led to a career high in completion percentage last year, and has most of his weapons back. Yes, Reuben Randle included. A favorable schedule make him hard to pass up.

Marvin Jones $1- Back and healthy, Jones could be a major steal if he continues his current progression throughout camp and the preseason.

Victor Cruz $3 - How about a comeback from one of the worst injuries you can possibly have? He could be the first. I believe in him.

Thanks for reading and I hope this gives some insight for your fantasy endeavors. Oh yeah, I didn't get too upset that I missed out on handcuffing Giovanni Bernard with Jeremy Hill. I already had Antonio Brown and some guy at the end of my bench I paid $1 for...Odell Beckham Jr.

This article was written by Ben Walker. Find Ben on Twitter @mrpumamc

Should You Draft Eddie Royal And Julian Edelman

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This time of year is an odd one. There are games, but they mean nothing. Over the past few seasons it seems that the preseason has less meaning than it has in the past. Most of the game action features the starters for a bit, then mostly the backups and guys that are trying to make the team playing their faces off. But this year I have noticed a trend that I haven't in the past. Some teams are sitting many of their most important players in a variety of situations. Some have been held out altogether so far, and some have gotten to that point. So how do you proceed with your drafting when you don't know what's going on? Let's try to find out together.

Two players that can have some serious implications for your PPR Fantasy teams are Eddie Royal and Julian Edelman. Both of these players are in positive expectation situations this season. Edleman has been a great PPR receiver for a few years now. Royal has had flashes, but is primed to see more balls in his direction this season than last. Both of these guys are listed as out with injuries, possibly for the rest of the preseason. So should you draft them? Maybe.

One point of consideration is the fact that both of these guys play for teams that have some apparent serious injury concerns at the wide receiver position. Kevin White is out for a large portion of the season, if not all. Alshon Jeffery has an ankle injury. Brandon LaFell is apparently just getting out of a walking boot. The Patriots situation is so dire, they just signed a 37 year old receiver, Reggie Wayne, to a decent money deal.

The Patriots are not known for being particularly forthcoming on their injury situations. There have been some rumors and tweets about what people have seen at their practices. Even the players don't say much. Edelman was asked about the extent and severity of his injury this week, and directed the reporters to talk to Head Coach Bill Belichick.

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Similarly the Bears were coy with the extent of the injury to White earlier this year. They said he had shin splints right until the time at which White had surgery on his stress fractures in his shin bone. So Bears Coach John Fox is not always the most trustworthy of injury consultants. The word right now on Royal is that he is day to day.

My take on the situation is that we are watching two teams protecting two of their remaining healthy offensive assets from the rigors of meaningless games and contact. With already depleted resources, it seems the narrative of these injuries points to making sure that the offense has what top line players are left healthy to open the season.

Jonathan Stewart 2015 Outlook

Jonathan Stewart is entering his eighth season in the NFL in 2015. Spending most of his career thus far sharing a backfield with DeAngelo Williams has really hurt Stewart’s ability to score for Fantasy. Along with the crowded backfield, injuries have sidelined Stewart for 22 games in his career. So why would you want to draft a guy that has this history? Let’s take a look at what lies ahead for him this season.

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Stewart hasn’t been as consistent as you might like to see from a running back. Over his last three seasons Stewart has only scored a quality game in nine of 28 games according to Bob Lung’s consistency guide. Looking at the breakdowns by defense level, Stewart is consistently inconsistent. The best category for consistency broken down by defense for Stewart is at home against good defenses, scoring two of four quality games. Taking into account all other defensive rankings together you get an average of 29% quality games. This does not bode well for the chances for Stewart. Most of this second category of quality games was against the bad and middle of the road defenses that should allow for more scoring to a running back.

Taking a look at the schedule for the Carolina Panthers this season has a bit of good news to it. The Panthers will be facing the second best schedule of run defenses from 2014 rankings. The average rank of the run defenses they will face this season is 19.68. The Panthers will have the luxury of only facing off against three Top 10 run defenses from a season ago. The season opens with a soft landing at Jacksonville. The Texans in Week Two present a more difficult challenge. After that the following two games against the Saints and Bucs will be good match ups. Then a rough match up against the Seahawks leads to a cleaner finish to the season.

The playoff run for the Panthers looks pretty good. Week 14 sees the Falcons coming to town. Week 15 sees Carolina traveling to the already banged up Giants. Week 16 sees the Panthers playing the Falcons for the second time in three weeks. Even though you can expect the Falcons to play tougher than last season under new coach Dan Quinn, they were the 21^st ranked run defense last year, and huge overnight change is unlikely. Finally if you play through week 17, the Buccaneers and their 19^th ranked pass defense last season come to Carolina.

Stewart has an ADP that puts him at the end of the fourth round overall. Going at 47^th, his price puts him in the RB2 or RB3 category. In his same area of the ADP you can find players that I would both be more comfortable with, and some that I would be less comfortable with. Andre Ellington is at 49^th in ADP right behind Stewart. I would probably take Ellington over Stewart myself. On the flip side of that coin, Todd Gurley is going at the 46^th pick in ADP, and I would rather have both Stewart and Ellington over Gurley in a redraft league. If you are picking in this area there are a few other players for positions other than running back that I would take over Stewart here.

Another consideration that you must have is the fact that Stewart will have a hard time getting red zone touches. Not only is Cam Newton a touchdown vulture up close, but the Panthers have a history of using Mike Tolbert when they get in close. On top of those two taking away red zone touches, the Panthers have taken on the basketball team mentality for their wide receivers. Now having two very tall receivers, and Greg Olsen who is also tall, the red zone is a crowded place for Carolina.

One thing to note for sure is that if you take Jonathan Stewart for your 2015 Fantasy team, you need to grab Cameron Artis-Payne as a backup. With Stewart being the poster child for getting injured over his career, his back up is an important asset. The schedule is so good that the next man up might have a shot at relevance as well.

Earlier this offseason I was all aboard the Stewart train. As we get closer to the season, and I take a closer look at both where his ADP is settling in at, and his overall situation, I have a hard time finding myself wanting to take Stewart on my team this season. If available I would rather take another running back or wide out at the same spot and wait for a Giovanni Bernard type in round five.

Mocking the first overall pick in a 12 team PPR draft

The first overall pick has been something that I have an amazingly large amount of experience with getting in my randomly selected fantasy drafts. I get it a lot. I hate it. I hate having one pick in the first 23. The stress and pressure of who to take, and not wanting to pick the guy who is going to bust, there's always one, is not something I want to deal with. But someone has to have the top pick. So let's take a look at the scenario I used from my mock draft on the fantasypros.com mock draft simulator.

I have put a fair amount of time into my strategy of who I would take at number one.

I looked at the four usual suspects and many aspects of their pros and cons in an article I wrote on socalledfantasyexperts.com. As I discussed in that article, the LeVeon Bell suspension makes me not want to take him. I don’t like the situation for Jamaal Charles, and Eddie Lacy has a heck of a tough schedule in my opinion this season. So this left me at Adrian Peterson. So for the purposes of this mock draft I took Peterson to line up with my pick.

Now since then I have had a monumental shift in my thought process on my favorite back this year. I am willing to take a gamble on a guy that I believe has all of the things I value for a top running back. With the fifth easiest schedule of run defenses from last year, a much tougher pass defense schedule, a new regime that likes to run and uses a bell cow running back, I am willing to gamble on CJ Anderson to be the top running back for the 2015 season. Give me the first pick in a real draft, or redoing this mock, and I take him every time.

So now that I’m off my soapbox, we can resume a look at this mock draft I did. At pick 24 there is surprisingly no quarterbacks off the board. The best running backs available are Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, and Andre Ellington. The best wide receivers available are Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, TY Hilton, and Brandin Cooks. Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce are both still available, but this is way too early for me for them. I have pretty much fallen in love with Mike Evans this year.

His situation is great.

He has a quarterback that is willing to toss the ball up. He is very tall. His schedule is extremely favorable for passing. And last but not least, he was amazing with no talent at the quarterback position last year. I can’t think of a guy I want more on this board, so Evans is my guy.

Pick 25 in this mock is the spot that is a little weird for me.

I don’t hate taking Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck, I prefer Luck. If you like Graham and want him, this is your spot, he won’t be available at the next pick. It is likely that the top 20 running backs and receivers will be picked clean the next time through, so you need to make your pick here based on that info. I am a believer that your second running back can be cobbled together from round four, five, or six picks. So we already have a top running back and a top receiver on our roster. Because this is a PPR league I want to take a good volume receiver. I like Brandin Cooks of the receivers left on the board. Cooks was on pace for a high volume last year, and this year there are more targets to spread around from missing components from last season.

At the end of the fourth round we find that

much to our good fortune Alfred Morris and Latavius Murray have fallen to us. There is only one Top 20 wide receiver left on the board in Keenan Allen. Peyton Manning is the best quarterback left, as Luck, Rodgers, and Russell Wilson are all off the board. Drew Brees is also available in this spot. I like to stack a quarterback and a receiver, and if we didn’t need some running backs for this team I would probably take one of the quarterbacks, and lean toward Brees. But alas, we have found that two of the Top 20 running backs have fallen to us, so it makes our 48^th and 49^th overall picks pretty simple ones. Alfred and Latavius, welcome aboard.

When the end of the sixth round finds us,

there are now seven quarterbacks off the board. Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, and Ryan Tannehill are the best four on the board. Travis Kelce and Greg Olsen are gone. The best tight end left is Martellus Bennett. At running back LeGarrette Blount has found his way to this spot in the draft. He is joined by Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen, and Joique Bell. At wide receiver we find Eric Decker, Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Mike Wallace on the board.

I had a very hard time making a decision at this spot.

I sat with my finger over the mouse ready to click draft on Blount, but I just couldn’t do it. I hate having Patriots running backs on my team. I decided to go ahead and select Eric Decker, who I wrote about as a late round sleeper. Decker is a target of mine in middle rounds, and oddly this week I think his stock rose with Geno Smith being out and Ryan Fitzpatrick taking over as the starter.

With the 73^rd pick I decided to take a quarterback.

Of the players left I have two players to pick from. Either I am taking Matt Ryan, or I am taking Eli Manning. I like both of these players for the 2015 season, in fact writingabout Eli earlier this off season. The schedules for both teams are good for passing, they won’t face the best of passing defenses from last year. For me it comes down to preference and the rest of the situation. The Falcons have two proven wide receivers. Julio Jones and Roddy White are both players I wrote about this season. They have a history of being great players. The Giants have Odell Beckham Jr. who was phenomenal last year, but is a second year guy and not proven yet. Along with Odell we have Victor Cruz who is returning from a torn patellar tendon. This is not an easy injury to return from, and even with all reports pointing to good things, nobody knows how Cruz will play this year. When you consider these factors, Matt Ryan is my guy.

During round seven there was a run on tight ends.

In round eight a run on running backs goes down. I find the same wide receivers that were available previously and some tight ends I am not interested in at this spot in the draft. Time for the trick play that I have been hearing about on many podcasts and reading about on twitter a lot. Arian Foster is sitting there. At the end of round eight you should already have a good slate of starters. Our team here is only missing a tight end, but with the top 11 off the board, we aren’t in a rush anymore. So Foster is the perfect lottery ticket at the end of the eighth. With incomplete information about his injury and the timeline currently, Foster might find himself back by the second week of the season. If you get him at any point near then for the rest of the season, you can assume you should be the gold standard of your league.

The next pick is a little more difficult for me.

I only have three wide receivers on my squad so far. I am usually a fan of loading up on receivers, but there is still some great running back talent on the board. Isaiah Crowell is on the board, and if he is the guy who is starting in Cleveland, it’s a great spot for him. They are a bad team, which has a great offensive line, and will win by running and playing defense. Devonta Freeman is still on the board. If he can get healthy and stay that way, he has the chance to be the starting back in Atlanta. Reggie Bush is on the board, and as I wrote here, Bush can be a great value play in PPR leagues. I decided to take Crowell here, gambling that he is eventually going to win this job. I would be okay with any of these backs, but would take them in the following order: Crowell, Freeman, Bush as it stands today. With all of the running back talent I have, if one of the later round guys I drafted hits, or if Foster comes back quickly, I could trade a running back to upgrade my wide receiver corps.

As we hit the end of Round 10, we find a lot of wide receivers on the board.

Since our last pick only one came off the board. We need a receiver and a tight end. The running backs on the board don’t make me want to draft them, especially since this team is stocked well. Kyle Rudolph is going to be our guy here. Minnesota faces the fourth best schedule for tight ends based on Fantasy points allowed to tight ends. With Teddy Bridgewater in his second year, and performing well at the end of last season, if Rudolph can stay healthy, he is set up well for this season.

Our next pick needs to be a wide receiver. We lack depth there and need to find a value guy with a high ceiling. I want to take a guy that has a lot of upside. The receivers available are Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, Charles Johnson, Marques Colston, and Nelson Agholor. I decided to take Agholor here. If he is ready to play this season, the volume he will see in the Philadelphia offense will make him a great value for the 11^th round.

We have now found the point in the draft where I am snatching up my value wide receivers.

I find Pierre Garcon sitting there at the end of round 12. As I wrote in my late round PPR values article, I love Garcon this year. If Robert Griffin III can get it together this year, I think Garcon can be a huge value. If you have been reading the rest of my mock draft articles, the 11 pick, and the 12 pick, you will notice that I like to take Garcon late. I’m hitching my wagon to him this year.

I grab John Brown with my pick at the start of Round 13. I like Brown over Floyd currently seeing as he didn’t just have surgery to repair a compound dislocation. I like to err on the side of the guy who has skills and didn’t just have hand surgery.

I take Stephen Gostkowski and the Ravens defense in rounds 14 and round 15. I took the top kicker and the defenses were decimated by the time I made my pick. I would likely stream a defense for the year based on the matchups.

So my strategy from the one hole was different than it was from the late first round spots. I was able to amass a huge amount of starting running back talent, and still have a few great wide receivers. I feel that this team ended up pretty balanced, and has the chance to have great expendable parts to possibly use to trade up to improve some positions later.

Mocking the 12 pick in a 12 team PPR league

My favorite spots to draft in are the late first round picks. The sandwich picks, as they are sometimes called, allow you to both close and open a round. You get to take a look at what your opponents have and need. Then you get to take two players that fit either your needs or desires. In the front end of the draft, you get two of the top 13 players in a 12 team league. So let’s take a look at the who’s and why’s of my mock draft from pick 12. Note that this draft was done prior to the injury to Arian Foster.

So at the end of the first round the top six running backs have come off the board.

Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are also gone. I am a big proponent this season of taking a running back in round one as long as you get one of the top tier running backs. In this particular draft I had taken Arian Foster, but as I wrote on socalledfantasyexperts.com, I would now substitute that pick with CJ Anderson. Anderson is the end of my first tier of running backs, and has a big opportunity in front of him.

With my second pick in this sandwich, I look to Julio Jones.

As I wrote about him awhile back, I absolutely love Jones this year. The schedule for Atlanta is primed for him to have a huge season. The team will likely have a better defense, but won’t likely be a big jump this year. This leads me to thinking that they will still be involved in shootouts. Shootouts are a great thing for a player like Jones. So now after my second pick I have a top level running back, and the wide receiver I like the most for 2015.

When my pick comes up at the end of round three I am now thinking about taking another top level wide receiver and maybe a good second running back. After my fourth round pick in that scenario, I would already have a solid core of starters that I will be likely to plug and play for the whole season. This strategy leaves you in a good situation to fill in the rest of your starters, or add bench depth in case of injuries or for bye weeks.

So at the end of round three my pick wend Mark Ingram.

Ingram is in a good situation. He is the definite running downs back. His team traded away more than one receiving option, and added a Pro Bowl run blocking center. This all bodes well for the lead back in the New Orleans offense. This will fill out my starting running backs for the greater part of the season, barring injury.

My fourth round pick is a guy that I find myself drafting a lot

at the late third and early fourth round slots. Oddly he is a teammate of my third round pick. Brandin Cooks was the player I decided to snatch up with the first pick of the fourth. Cooks had an interesting ride last year. His usage was quizzical early in the season, and then with a slight shift to usage, he was on pace for monster rookie year numbers. Injury cut his rookie season short. It was obvious this offseason that there is a shift coming in the offense. The run is likely to be more important to the offense of the Saints, but they will still have to pass. The defense is not good. They will have a hard time stopping anyone. And that will lead to passing if they fail to control the clock and get a stop. Cooks in a PPR league should be a solid play, amassing a lot of catches, and possessing the skills to do great things with the ball. As my second wide receiver, I am a very happy man.

When the draft comes back to me again at pick 60 overall,

I find a great value still on the board at running back. Jonathan Stewart is hanging around. This is an unbelievable value. Stewart is a Top 20 running back, and he is sitting at pick 60. With DeAngelo Williams no longer clogging the backfield in Carolina, Stewart only needs to stay healthy to be a productive member of your team. There is no way that I could let Stewart pass at this spot, so welcome aboard.

The first pick of the sixth round is an interesting one.

There are a lot of choices left on the board that would fit well on this squad. Latavius Murray, TJ Yeldon are running backs on board. Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are still there. Wilson might be a great pick at 6.01, but I was waiting on a quarterback in this league. Travis Kelce is there, but I know I am not a believer in Alex Smith, so Kelce is out for me. I decided to take Yeldon in this spot. Reports out of Jags camp is that Yeldon has picked up the offense very quickly. He has been talked about as a three down back. This is something I am interested in taking a shot on. A new three down back in the league. Sign me up.

During the rest of the sixth and seventh rounds before my next pick comes up there is a run on quarterbacks. 

When my pick at 84 overall comes up

the best quarterback on the board is Eli Manning. I am still waiting on quarterback. I want to see what I get if I wait really late. The best available players left are Latavius, Todd Gurley, Joique Bell, Rashad Jennings, Eric Decker. I can’t pass up Latavius Murray at this point. I think Gurley is a decent selection, but just today as I am writing this article news hit that Gurley will likely miss the first few games. So Murray is a better choice here in my opinion. Last year he flashed moments of brilliance. Murray gives me four starting running backs to choose from week to week.

So all the previously listed players are still available. With a decent amount of depth at the running back position this team needs to add a wide receiver. Eric Decker is the best on the board at this point in the draft. I am bullish on Decker this year, as I wrote earlier this season. Decker has a good situation, and I honestly believe it got better with Ryan Fitzpartick as the quarterback this year. Decker is a good receiver, in a team that made some great moves this off season, and is headed in the right direction. Decker fills in some much needed depth at the wide out spot.

At the end of round 9, 108 overall

this team has needs at tight end, quarterback, and wide receiver depth. The best receivers available are Brandon LaFell, Steve Smith, Michael Floyd, Anquan Boldin, Mike Wallace. The best tight end on the board is Delanie Walker, but I am not a fan this season. The best quarterbacks available are Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady. I want to let quarterback go one more time and see what is left. This is after all a mock draft, the place to try things out.

With those facts in mind, I decided that I need to add some more wide receiver depth to this team. My favorite targets on this list are by far Anquan Boldin and Michael Floyd. Boldin is the best wide receiver in San Francisco, and the offseason action is pointing to a complete mess being what the team looks like this season. I find it likely they will be trailing a lot, leading to a lot of passing, hopefully to Boldin. Michael Floyd is a slight gamble. Having just had surgery for a compound dislocation, Floyd’s price is dropping. If his fingers are healed, and Carson Palmer can stay healthy this season, Floyd might be able to be a productive member of your fantasy roster this year. Expect a maximum effort from Floyd this year, as the size of his paycheck next year depends on it.

Coming back around in the 11^th round 

we find that LaFell, Wallace, and Smith are still on the board. Torrey Smith and Marques Colston and Kendall Wright are available as well. I am not a fan of any of those wide receivers this year except Colston. The only issue I have with Colston is that I already have Brandin Cooks. I am not usually in the market for two wide receivers from the same team so I will pass on Colston.

In the past round there was another run on quarterback and there isn’t much left at tight end. I deided to take one more wide receiver. That guy is Pierre Garcon. I love Garcon in the end of round 11.  As I wrote about him earlier, I believe that Garcon is set up for a good season. The schedule is great for Washington, and if Robert Griffin III can figure it out, Garcon was a PPR monster with him in his rookie season.

So with the first pick in round 12, I suppose it’s time to find my quarterback. 

I have tried this strategy a few times in mock drafts this year. I am generally pleased with the quarterbacks that are left behind. If you look at the points that separated Ben Roethlisberger, the fifth ranked quarterback on ESPN standard leagues, and the 17^th ranked quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, was a total of 61 points on the whole season. That is a difference of 3.8 points per game over the whole season. You will likely recoup those points with the added value you got from players you didn’t take earlier in the draft. And if my quarterback falters, I can just stream from the leftovers and likely be just fine.

With my 13^th and 14^th round picks I am getting a jump on the competition

and taking the top kicker and the defense that I want. There are obviously some defenses that are already off the board, but I am in love with the potential of the Jets defense this season. They already had a strong front on defense. Then they upgraded the secondary with one of the best shutdown corners and a solid counterpart on the other side. I love the Jets this season and want to get them in every draft I can.

For kicker, I like to get Gostkowski at the top of round 14. At this point I only need to add a tight end, and am going to stream that position. So I like to take the top kicker. Gostkowski is a good kicker year in and year out. If he isn’t available I favor either kickers that are indoors, or the kicker in Denver. Honestly most of the time I end up dropping my kickers anyways to make room to hold a waiver wire guy for a week.

With my last pick in this draft I selected Charles Clay. He signed a big contract this past offseason, and is likely to get some usage in the offense this season. Clay will be the outlet and often a hot route for the myriad of mess that is the quarterback situation in Buffalo. If I don’t like what action Clay is getting, I would probably stream a guy that is available on waivers.

So ends our look at the number 12 overall pick. I love these sandwich picks for the ability to take two players in a row. This allows you to look at what is available and what your opponents need in the next rounds and make an informed decision. Also you end up getting two of the top 13 picks, which is not a bad thing either. Check back for the next draft position, the first overall pick.

Mocking the 11 pick in a 12 team league

Mock drafting is a very important part of the preseason regimen that a Fantasy player should go through. I have already completed around 50 mock drafts this season. The process has been made much faster this season after I found the Mock Draft Simulator I wrote about here. Instead of taking an hour, the simulator takes the average draft positions rankings, and simulates a draft for you. You can pick various settings for the rosters and league size, making it a great tool for all kinds of leagues. An upgrade to the pro level on fantasy pros lets you draft against a higher level setting, making your draft game even better.

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Drafting from all the different positions in the draft helps you discover the players that will be available at your picks, and prepares you for your draft.

Knowing the likely rounds you need to take the players you are interested in allows you to put together a solid plan to draft the team you want.

For the first in this series I have decided to pick from the 11 spot. The league setting is a 12 team PPR with two wide receivers, two running backs, and a flex.

So let’s take a look at the mock draft from pick 11.

When my first round pick came up I had some choices. There were some great players still available. Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr., Demaryius Thomas, Arian Foster, and CJ Anderson were all available. With only one player in between my first and second picks my selection process is skewed by the talent left at wide receiver. If I take a second tier high level running back there will still be at least one wide out that I would be happy to have on my team when my pick at 14 comes back to me. With only two running backs left that I am interested at this point in the draft, I would not be guaranteed one of them. So my selection was Foster. I wouldn’t fault you for taking Anderson, but as I wrote about Foster earlier this year, I like him a lot this season.

This was written before the injury to Foster in the preseason. That injury makes it imperative in my opinion that you would take Anderson at this spot. He is the best running back left and could be the end of a tier at the position. There will still be the same receivers behind this pick, but you have by far taken the best running back left.

As it turned out

the picks at 12 and 13 were Beckham and Jones, leaving me to take Demaryius Thomas at pick 14. This sets up the situation I am favoring this season in my leagues. In the past I have favored a zero running back approach to PPR leagues, but this year I am leaning more toward taking a running back if the right guy is available. In this draft I now have a great running back and an elite wide receiver to start my draft out. I know that when it gets back to me at the end of round three none of the elite wide receivers or running backs will be left.

When it does come my turn at pick 35

there were still some decent players available. For running backs Lamar Miller, Alfred Morris, Jonathan Stewart were all there to be selected. At wide receiver the available players were Brandin Cooks, Emmanuel Sanders, Kelvin Benjamin, and Julian Edelman. At this point in the draft quarterback can also be a consideration to me, and Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson were available. I am not a huge fan of Miller this year, Morris is not a great back in PPR formats because he doesn’t catch passes, and Stewart has a history of injury so I am not a huge fan of any of these players. If I didn’t already have Thomas as one of my receivers I might take Sanders, but I don’t want two receivers from the same team. With a lot of targets available in the New Orleans offense and a belief that Cooks will be getting his fair share of them, I selected him. Edelman would be a solid choice in a PPR format, but the possibility of Tom Brady missing four games sours me on him at this spot in the draft.

The round four pick, 38 overall left me in a similar spot. I am confident that a quarterback that can touch the elite level will not be around at the end of round five. I have two great wide receivers already so taking a guy I am not sure about in Edelman, and a guy who is unlikely to have the same level of targets and has drop issues in Benjamin is not on my radar. So I decide to do something I don’t usually do and take Peyton. This allows me to stack my elite wide receiver and his quarterback. As I wrote here, I like to stack an elite target and the guy throwing him the ball when it is possible. This satisfies my desire there.

By the time my pick in round five comes around,

59 overall, all of the Top 20 running backs and wide receivers were off the board. Russell Wilson has fallen to this spot, a slight miscalculation on my part, but I’m still happy with Peyton. The best available players on the board at running back are Giovanni Bernard, Carlos Hyde, Latavius Murray, and TJ Yeldon. Travis Kelce and Greg Olson are both available at tight end, but I am not a fan of early tight ends. Yeldon is my pick here. I am gambling on a rookie, but he is a rookie that has the job pretty well locked up. I have recently read some good reports on Yeldon and how well he has picked up the offense. If he can lock down pass blocking, he has a chance to be a three down back.

For my pick at 62 overall Carlos Hyde and Travis Kelce have now come off the board. Latavius Murray and Giovanni Bernard are still available at running back. I am not ready to go with another gamble on a guy who is unproven at running back and is on a team that will likely be trailing a lot. With Roy Helu on the roster, the Raiders have a pass catching back not named Latavius. I am still not a fan of Bernard at this spot so I switch up my thinking a bit. Greg Olson is the fourth ranked tight end on the blended rankings, and since I already have a fairly well rounded setup of starters, I decided to take Olson at this spot. My belief is that in later rounds I can find a few guys to platoon at my flex spot, but I now have a lineup that I am willing to run out every week of the season and take my chances with.

Between rounds six and seven a quarterback run position happens.

This is important to note because this is a likely spot that if you don’t have a quarterback, it’s time to get your man. Since I already do, that allows players to fall to me that were available previously. When my pick at 83 overall comes up, Giovanni Bernard is still on the board. Even though I am not a fan of him this season, as I wrote earlier, every player will have a place in a draft where the value is better than the pick. Bernard will be a great flex player in a PPR league, so he is my pick at 83.

When it comes back around in the eighth round at pick 86 overall there are still some decent values on the board. Rashad Jennings, Joique Bell, LeGarrette Blount are the best running backs on the board. Eric Decker and Larry Fitzgerald are the top receivers left for the taking. Seeing as I have a rookie and a guy I don’t believe in this year on my squad already, I decide to take Joique bell to bolster my running back depth. I don’t like to take Patriots backs since you never know what they are going to do, and Jennings has a hard time staying healthy, so Joique is my guy.

A stoke of good fortune finds me when it comes back to me at 107 and 110.

We find that both Decker and Fitzgerald have fallen to me. These are guys that in the later rounds I am a fan of getting on my teams. I don’t believe in Geno Smith as an NFL quarterback. I think that at some point this season he will be on the bench and Ryan Fitzpatrick gives Decker a lot of opportunity. Fitzpatrick is a decent NFL quarterback with the ability to run a good offense. He is not a top level quarterback, but he is a veteran who knows what he is doing. Fitzgerald is a bit more of a flier than I think Decker is. But in the 10^th round he is a good value. If Carson Palmer can stay healthy this season, Fitzgerald should have better numbers than he did with the menagerie of terrible quarterbacks the Cardinals had last year. As my fourth wide out I could do worse.

When my pick comes up in round 11,

131 overall, I found a lot of late round values at the wide receiver spot. Brandon LaFell, Steve Smith, Anquon Boldin, Pierre Garcon, Torrey Smith, and Marques Colston are available. Not much left in the running back bin, so I am now rolling with what I have at running back and am taking the receivers due to their value this late in the draft. As I wrote previously about Boldin, I like him as a late round guy this season.

Pick 134 in the 12^th round has me looking at two guys. Pierre Garcon and Marques Colston are my favorite picks left on the board. I love both of these guys in the 12^th round this year. I wrote about Garcon in my late round ppr values article this week. I see him as a player with big potential to bounce back this season if he can get some consistent play from the quarterback position. I like Colston late this year too for the same reasons I like Cooks. But therein lies the problem. Having Cooks already on my team makes me not want to draft Colston. If Cooks isn’t already on my roster I would err on the side of the better quarterback situation and snatch up Colston. So Garcon is my guy.

At pick 155 overall in round 13 I pull a fast one.

I sneak in and take the defense I am targeting this year. The Jets are ranked 11^th this season by the fantasy pros consensus rankings. To me this is a huge undervaluing of their defense. They have a great front line. Yes it would be better if Sheldon Richardson didn’t keep getting himself in trouble, but they will still have a solid front four. The glaring hole they had last year was at cornerback, and they addressed that in a big way this season. Adding Darrell Revis and Antonio Cromartie to their defensive backfield will bolster their defense and will likely decrease their points allowed, while increasing their turnovers forced. I don’t want to miss out on them, so I take them a little earlier than most would draft a D/ST.

At pick 158 overall, the second in the 14^th round I decide to take the top ranked kicker as none of them are off the board yet. This allows me to have the best kicker over the past few years, and locks me in to a kicker I will be happy to run out there for the entire season. I can snipe the top guy and know that most of the other teams are only taking defense and kickers for the rest of the draft, so I can get most of the skill position players that are left on the board with my final pick. You can feel free to take a kicker based on any factor you see fit. Some like a kicker that plays indoors, some like the Denver kicker to add that distance from their thin air. I usually go with Stephen Gostkowski in this position. He’s good. He’s consistent. He’s my pick in round 14.

With my last pick, 179 overall, at the end of the 15^th round it is time for a flier.

The best available players on the board are Kendall Wright, John Brown, Larry Donnell, Percy Harvin, Reuben Randle, Kenny Stills, Charles Clay, and Devante Parker. With the Justin Hunter situation in Tennessee probably keeping him out, you can’t really stab people, I decided to take Wright. He is the highest ranked, has the best situation, and plays for a bad team that is likely to throw a lot this year. I could also take Davante Parker in this spot, but I think he will be available a few weeks down the line on waivers when his situation becomes clearer. By that time you might be able to easily discard one or more of your current roster to make room for him as he rounds into playing shape.

A feature I like about the mock draft simulator is that it will give you a rating for your starters, bench, and overall team. My starters were the top ranked in the league for this draft. My bench was only the fifth best according to their metrics, but I would not be planning to use my bench a lot. I also have a fair amount of receivers that I believe have a good chance for resurgent production this year if the chips can fall right for them. I have great wide receiver depth on this team, and if one or two of them can hit, I might have some good trade chips for upgrading at another spot in my lineup.

So we reach the end of the first installment of this look at mock drafting. I hope this article has served to help you in your planning and preparation for your drafts this season. Look for my articles on other draft pick spots in the near future.

Chris Ivory 2015 Schedule Outlook

The New York Jets have not been a very good team the last few years. A great run defense and marginal pass defense have been the best units on their team. Lacking talent on offense has been an issue. An unproven, and at times bad, quarterback and lack of depth at receiver have hamstrung the Jets offense. With a regime change and the addition of Brandon Marshall you might think that the passing game will get a better look. And it may. But with Todd Bowles installed as the head man and a hugely upgraded secondary, look for the jets to win by controlling the ball and shutting down the opponents offense.

Image source: nypost.com

Enter Chris Ivory.

Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets currently sits atop the depth chart. Over the last few seasons he has not been the most consistent of running backs, but its tough to be great when they know you are running and stack the box. Ivory only had 44% quality games last season using the consistency guide of Bob Lung. His late season run was pretty bad as teams realized that the Jets lacked a passing attack.

Over the last two seasons Ivory’s splits for both home vs road and rank of defense have not been great. His best category is against bad defenses at home, where he was a perfect four for four. At home against good defenses he was four of seven quality games, 57%. On the road overall he is only four of 15, 27%.

The schedule for the Jets this year is the seventh best schedule against run defenses.

With an average ranking of 18.31, the jets will only face four of the Top 10 run defenses from last season. To open the season Ivory and the Jets will not face a Top 10 run defense. In games six through 10,  the schedule gets much tougher. Three Top 11 run defenses await during this period. Weeks 11 to 13 have great match ups against teams that are no better than 24^th in run defense last season. The playoff run is difficult for Ivory and his Jets counterparts. The Week 14 game is in Ivory’s favor, facing the second worst run defense of last season in the Titans. After that it gets much more difficult. Week 15 sees the Jets travel to the eighth ranked run defense of the Cowboys. The Week 16 match up doesn’t get much easier, facing the ninth ranked run defense of the Patriots. If your league plays through week 17 you won’t find a reprieve either. The 11^th ranked Bills will host the Jets in the finale.

Ivory is not historically a big pass catcher out of the backfield.

Having a career high 18 receptions on 27 targets in 2014 means that in a PPR league you will not get many extra points from his activity in the passing game. Ivory also must win the job during training camp. The Jets signed Stevan Ridley and traded for Zac Stacy in the off season. This isn’t Ivory’s job without earning it. The good news is that if one of the other guys in the competition wins the job, my advice will be the same.

Ivory, or the winner of the competition, is at best a RB2 or a flex. If you draft them, look to trade them after four or five weeks for a player that has a better looking second half or playoff schedule. He is a player you could platoon throughout the season based on match ups. Ivory is currently RB 44 at 106^th overall pick in the ADP on fantasypros.com. As late round depth that has potential trade value, Ivory is a target of mine in round nine to ten.