My Playbook

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Match Up Monsters And Misses Week 10

Week 10 already. Hard to imagine that the fantasy season is winding down. Only a few more weeks until the playoffs start. It's go time. Time to make those good decisions and play your optimal lineups. I present to you my help this week with the match up monsters and misses.

The Good:

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The Dallas Cowboys have a great match up this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars on what amounts to a neutral field in London. The Jags are in the bottom of the rankings in rushing (24th, 123.4 yards per game) and passing (25th, 263.4 yards per game). If Tony Romo can stay upright during the game, look for the Cowboys to tee off on the Jags defense. Any of the starting players on the Dallas offense are good starts this week. The only guy I might worry about is Jason Witten, as he may be required to stay at the line and block this week. 

Baltimore Ravens running backs have a great opportunity this week against the 29th ranked run defense of the Titans. I would expect the Ravens to build a lead this week and lean on their running game. This week both Justin Forsett and Lorenzo Taliaferro are good starters to lean on. Taliaferro has been getting the bulk of the goal line work the last few weeks, and Forsett has been great this season as the lead back after the Ray Rice suspension.

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The layup of the week seems like it would be the Pittsburgh Steelers wide receivers against the New York Jets. The Steelers have 12 receiving touchdowns in their last 2 games, and the Jets have allowed 24 passing touchdowns on the season. It is a match made in heaven. If nobody has scooped up Martavis Bryant yet, he is a must start for you this week. I would even suggest a spot start for Markus Wheaton to fill in for your bye week receivers or a flex spot.

The Denver Broncos running backs should have a game of it this week against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders have the 27th ranked rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 132.5 yards per game on the ground. In a game that is likely to get out of hand early, look for the Broncos to shorten the game by feeding their running backs and keeping the clock running.

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Andre Ellington and the Arizona Cardinals running attack have a solid match up against the 30th
ranked run defense of the St. Louis Rams. The Rams are allowing 136.2 yards per game on the ground. Look for Ellington and Marion Grice to have good games against the Rams. Not sure that I can say to start grimes, but if you are in a pinch, he has been getting some goal line work for the Cardinals in the absence of Stepfan Taylor.

I am looking for a good week from the Green Bay Packers offense this week against the Chicago Bears. The Bears have the 23rd ranked pass defense, and the Packers pass at a prolific clip. Look for great games for Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and even Davante Adams. If the Packers build a lead, expect a good workload for Eddie Lacy and maybe even James Starks if the game is totally out of hand.

The Philadelphia Eagles face off against the 18th ranked pass defense of the Carolina Panthers this week. Allowing 246.2 yards per game and 17 touchdowns through the air this season, the Panthers should provide a soft landing for the new starter for the Eagles Mark Sanchez. Expect productive days from all your regular Eagles contributors, and even the likes of Jordan Mathews and maybe even Zach Ertz. I'm starting my Eagles passing attack this week.

The Bad

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The Tennessee Titans have a difficult match up this week against the 6th ranked run defense of the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have only allowed 86.4 yards per game this season on the ground. Bishop Sankey is likely in for a long day on Sunday. The Titans will likely be throwing a lot with new starter Zach Mettenberger and his cannon arm. I would not suggest a start this week for Sankey, if he is even on your roster at this point.

Andre Williams and the New York Giants have a difficult game ahead of them this week facing the Seahawks in Seattle. The Hawks are holders of the 4th ranked run defense this season, allowing only 83 yards per game and 3 touchdowns on the ground all season. I wouldn't look for a big game from the oft under performing Williams this week in this match up.

Image source: NFL.com
The dysfunctional Chicago Bears passing game is lining up opposite the 9th ranked pass defense of
division rival Green Bay this week. Both Teams are coming off a bye, and have had plenty of time to prepare for their opponent. The Packers are allowing only 225.8 yards per game through the air, and have a 12:10 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions this year. I don't know if I can trust the Bears offense to right the ship this week.

The Oakland Raiders are facing what could end up the best improved defense in the NFL this season. The Broncos are ranked 1 in run defense, allowing 71.6 yards per game, and 21st against the pass. Last week against the Patriots a big blow was dealt to the Broncos pass defense, but the Raiders are not the Patriots. I see this game as a possible blowout for the Broncos, and your best shot at scoring with the Raiders is garbage time through the air. Sit your Raiders running backs, start James Jones and Andre Holmes if you have no other alternatives.

The Buffalo Bills have the biggest hurdle of the week in the form of the top ranked Kansas City Chiefs pass defense. The Chiefs are the only team that is allowing under 200 yards a game through the air. The Bills are possibly going to be without the services of Sammy Watkins after he hurt his groin in practice on Wednesday. If the Bills are missing him, or if he is limited in any way it's going to be a long, tough day for Kyle Orton and the Bills offense.

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Injury has put a damper on the Miami Dolphins run game for week 10. Already having lost Knowshon Moreno for the season, the Dolphins now deal with an injury to Lamar Miller. Miller has a sprained AC joint in his shoulder and may not play this week. The AC joint often gets sprained in a shoulder separation, and it can be a 4 week injury. For a guy who has the job of running into a group of large men 20+ times a game, this is not a good injury for your ball security. If Miller does play, he is a marginal play in my opinion, and if Miller doesn't play, I don't want anything to do with the Dolphins run game against the number 2 ranked run defense of the Detroit Lions.

That's our week 10 look at the Monster Match Ups and Misses. Hopefully this will help you make good decisions that propel you toward your eventual spot atop the throne of your fantasy leagues. Good luck this week!