WTHarvin

Late this afternoon Jay Glazer of Fox Sports reported that the Seahawks have traded Percy Harvin to the New York Jets. This trade was wholly unexpected, speaking as a Seattle resident and Hawks fan. Lets look at what this does to the receiver corps in Seattle.

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Paul Richardson is the immediate first thought to gain in value. Often compared to Harvin after the draft, Richardson is a speedster and could immediately fill in in the role carved out for Harvin in the Hawks offense. Graded out at the combine with a 4.4 40 yard dash, his strengths are stretching the field and play extension by coming back to the quarterback, all things that are improtant to the Seahawks offense. The big knock on Richardson is that he is small, and needs to put on weight to be effective in the NFL.

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Kevin Norwood is the other wide receiver taken in the 2014 draft by the Seahawks. Standing 6'2 and
weighing in at 198 at the combine, Norwood is a long receiver with a solid build. He is known to have good hands and has good skill at extending plays by coming back to quarterback. The big knocks on him were short arms and not creating separation or getting off of jams. So far this season Norwood has not made it on field on game day, but that may change with the subtraction of Harvin from the Seahawks Roster.

This trade obviously shifts the value of the Seahawks receivers for fantasy. I am not sure that it changes much as it is for Doug Baldwin or Jermaine Kearse. In my opinion if you were to make a speculative addition in the wake of this trade it would be best spent on Richardson as of now, but this weekends game against the St. Louis Rams will likely shed more light on the situation. Just in case, I recommend getting out in front of it and jettisoning a deep bench player to grab Richardson and hope you hit the lottery.

Good luck this week!

A Lot Of Peaks And Valleys On The Way To The Mountain Top

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Russell Wilson took the NFL by storm in 2013, a far cry from what his draft stock was like in the 2012 draft. Coming out of college in the same season as such huge names as Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, Wilson was a distant thought in most fans minds,  yet has had arguably the biggest impact of all the 2013 quarterbacks. As for his fantasy value, that is a subject with many ups and downs.

Wilson began his career with the North Carolina State Wolfpack in 2008. Starting 11 games as a freshman, Wilson amassed solid numbers in his time the quarterback in North Carolina. Completing 682 of 1180 passes fir 8545 yards and 76 touchdowns along with 362 rushes for 1083 yards and 17 touchdowns in his 3 seasons at the helm of the offense. After the 2010 season, Wilson decided to attend spring training for the Colorado Rockies Major League Baseball team. This decision created a rift between Wilson and North Carolina State coach Tom O'Brien, eventually leading to Wilson being released from his scholarship to pursue baseball.

After spending the summers of 2010 and 2011 playing in Class A ball in the Rockies organization, Wilson committed to Wisconsin with his last remaining year of eligibility in the NCAA. During the 2011 season Wilson completed 225 of 309 passes for 3175 yards and 33 touchdowns. He also rushed 79 times for 338 yards and 6 scores. After the season he was named first team Big 10, Big 10 quarterback of the year, and leading the Badgers to a Big 10 championship that season, Wilson fell just short in the Rose Bowl against Oregon.

Coming into the 2012 draft, Wilson had a mid to late round grade at the combine. Possessing good speed, a 4.55 40 yard dash, and 10.25" hands, great for a quarterback being able to hold on to the ball and have control, the knock on Wilson was his height. He was graded out as an accurate passer who had great mechanics. Leadership was listed as an asset for Wilson as well. The issue, would he be able to see over the tall players on the offensive and defensive lines to make the throws. 

Drafted in the 3rd round by the Seahawks, 75th overall, Wilson came in to a quarterback room as the number 3 guy, the Hawks having Tavaris Jackson and just signed Matt Flynn. By the third preseason game, the momentum had built for Wilson. Yes it was him perfomring against the backups for the opposing team, but he was playing well and making good decisions. He was earning his shot. An arm injury to Flynn opened the door, and Wilson seized his opportunity.

This is the point in the article where we turn to the fantasy outlook and crunch some fantasy numbers. Wilson is a fantastic NFL quarterback. He leads his team, and he commands his huddle. He won a Super Bowl in his second season. But his fantasy stock is up and down. Lots of peaks in his numbers, and just about as many valleys. writing this after Wilson has played 5 games in the 2014 season, he has 37 games played in 2+ seasons, lets take a further look at some of his numbers. For the purposes of this article assume all fantasy numbers in ESPN standard scoring, 1 point for 25 yards passing, 4 point passing touchdowns, and 1 point for 10 rushing yards.

In 2012, Wilson's rookie season, he had 5 games where he scored 10 fantasy points or under . Of those games, 3 were on the road, and 3 were against NFC West opponents. If we expand to 15 points or less, there were 8 games where Wilson scored under that line. On the positive side of his fantasy numbers, he had 6 games on the season where he scored 20 fantasy points or above, including a 39 point effort against the Buffalo Bills in which he didn't play the whole game in a big blowout.

The 2013 Season using the same criteria, Russell had 5 games where he scored 10 fantasy points or under. Moving that number once again to 15 points or under we find that Wilson had 8 games again that meet this criteria. Once again looking at his 20+ point games we find that he had 5 games at that level. The lower scoring games once again seem to favor the NFC West opponents in the 2013 campaign.

So far in 2014 through 5 games, Wilson has only 1 game at the 10 points or under category. He has 2 games over the 20 point upper threshold, one home, and one on road. So far this year Wilson has yet to face any of the NFC West foes that have combined to keep his point totals lower over his first 2 seasons.

Taking the numbers of his career overall to get a picture makes a fairly clear point. In 37 total games so far, wilson has 22 games over 15 fantasy points, and 26 of his games are over 10 points. On the flip side, Wilson has 15 games under 15, and 11 of those games are under 10 fantasy points. His biggest games, which we will consider over 20 points add up to 13 through 37 career games, including 5 games over 25 points and 2 over 30. He averages a decent number of fantasy points season by season, 16.5 in 2012, 16.9 in 2013, and so far in 2014 19.8 points per game. For his career as a whole he is averaging 17.1 fantasy points per game.

Theses numbers lead to the conclusion that Russell Wilson is a solid choice as a fantasy quarterback. He has a reasonably high floor, and a big ceiling. I think that most fantasy players would find themselves quite happy with the performance of their quarterback if he was averaging 17 points per game for them. as he grows, matures, and hopefully acquires more weapons in his offense, his numbers will continue to go up. Predicting his off week is seemingly predictable and you could definitely use another quarterback to play in weeks where the Hawks face off against the better defenses of the NFC west and top defenses of the NFL in general.

In my opinion, Russell Wilson is a super solid quarterback for your fantasy purposes. High floor and very high ceiling make him a solid option for your fantasy team both this year and in the future. His cost in most drafts is lower that other top tier quarterbacks, and he is a must own in dynasty and keeper formats. If you don't have him in those formats, go get him. And keep your eye on him in your drafts next year.