My Playbook

Friday, October 31, 2014

Monster Match Ups and Misses Week 9

Taking a look at the week 9 schedule, it was easier to find good match ups as opposed to bad ones. Good match ups abound this week, and some of the bad ones are due not only to the ability of the opposing defense, but also workload and crowding issues in some teams backfields. Let's take a look at the week 9 match ups.

The Good

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Philadelphia Eagles wide receivers have a good match up this week against the Houston Texans. In an offense that loves to throw the ball, the Eagles will face off against the 29th ranked pass defense of the Texans. Houston is allowing 271.4 yards per game on the season, and have given up 15 touchdowns through the air. The Eagles have the 6th ranked pass offense in the league, and given this match up it is easy to say start your Eagles wide receivers and Zach Ertz. Darren Sproles deserves a flex look as well coming back from injury this week.
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Cincinnati Bengals wide receivers have a fantastic opportunity this week against the 27th ranked offense of the Jaguars. Add to that the likely return of AJ Green, and the subtraction of Giovanni Bernard from the Bengals offense, and it looks like the air game is set up to have success this week. The Jaguars are allowing 267.4 yards per game and don't pick the ball off a lot. Andy Dalton should be able to take advantage of this match up this week in a spot start if your quarterback is one of the bye week guys. Mohamed Sanu and AJ Green are must starts this week.
The Seattle Seahawks running game faces the Oakland Raiders in Seattle this week. I look for a dedication to the run in a game the Seahawks should be able to build a lead and grind to the finish. The Raiders allow 130.1 rushing yards per game on the season and are the 26th ranked run defense. Look for Seattle to return to their ground and pound ways to control the game.

Indianapolis Colts wide outs have a good match up this week against the 25th ranked pass defense of the New York Giants. Allowing 262.4 yards per game through the air, the Giants are definitely vulnerable to the great passing attack of the Colts. The return of Reggie Wayne this week makes at least 3 viable starters for the Colts in TY Hilton, Reggie Wayne, and Dwayne Allen. Fringe guys for the colts are Donte Moncrief and Coby Fleener. You can start them in an emergency, but I wouldn't count too much on their production this week.

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Arian Foster and the Houston Texans rushing attack are in a great situation this week against the Philadelphia Eagles. If Houston wants to control the amount of time the Eagles have the ball, the easiest way is to lean on Foster and Alfred Blue to grind the clock down. The Eagles have only allowed 3 rushing touchdowns on the season, but they do allow 116.7 yards per game so far this year. Look for Foster to get a heaping helping of touches this week and find success.

The Bad

New York Jets wide receivers have a terrible match up this week against the top ranked pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs. On top of the tough match up, the Jets have been a mess at the quarterback position. Last week in the debut of Percy Harvin, Geno Smith was benched and Michael Vick took over. Neither one of the Jets quarterbacks had any success and I don't see that getting better for them this week. Sit your Jets receivers, and if you play Vick, pray for rushing.

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San Diego Chargers square off against the 3rd ranked pass defense of the Miami Dolphins in week 9. The Dolphins shut down the Chicago Bears receivers last week, and have only been allowing 211.6 yards passing per game on the season. Keenan Allen has been having trouble scoring this year, and the only guy that has been really good is Antonio Gates. The success of Phillip Rivers has been very dependent on Gates. Look for the Dolphins to try to take Gates out of the equation.

St. Louis Rams running game is a victim of the old running back by committee. Tre Mason had a great game against the Seahawks in week 7, then followed that up with 7 carries for 32 yards in week 8. Mason suffers from an inability to pass block, and loses time on the field to Benny Cunningham in those situations. The Rams opponent in week 9 is the San Francisco 49ers, who have the 4th ranked run defense, allowing 84.9 yards per game.  Mason did have some success against the 49ers in week 6, averaging 8 yards per carry, but the other two backs had marginal results. Given the volatile situation in the Rams backfield, I can't see starting any of them.

Philadelphia Eagles running backs have been largely disappointing so far this season. LeSean McCoy has had one good game so far against the Giants in week six, and has only scored one time on the season. Darren Sproles is in the same boat, and is coming back from an MCL injury. Sproles had a huge game in week 2, and has done nothing since. This week the Eagles are taking on the Houston Texans. Ranked 12th, the Texans have allowed 108.2 yards per game on the season, but have only allowed 4 rushing touchdowns. If you have better options that McCoy and Sproles, I think it is a good week to try those options.

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New England Patriots running backs are about as unpredictable as the huge wind storm that is supposed to hit at game time. Head coach Bill Belichick is known to game plan to specific teams, and frequently will completely stay away from the player that was productive the week before. The Pats take on the top ranked run defense of the Denver Broncos this week. Denver has only allowed 72.4 yards per game and 5 scores on the ground this season. Last week Jonas Gray had 17 carries for 86 yards. The week before he had 3 for 12. I personally hate owning a running back from the Patriots because of the schizophrenic nature of Belichick. The wind storm is a confounding factor, along with the explosive nature of the Broncos offense. If you have to gamble, one possible game plan could be to feed the ball to Gray to control the clock and keep Peyton Manning off the field. Or he could go opposite and use Shane Vereen and pass non stop. Your guess is as good as mine.

That brings us to the end of the match up monsters and misses for week 9. Halfway through the season already, and only about a month from the fantasy playoffs, I hope this article can help you make the good choices this week to propel your teams to the playoffs and a championship. Good luck this week!