I entered a conversation on twitter about a month back about Julio Jones. My input was similar to my recent article where I lauded Jones for his talents, and also noted that his schedule was set up for him to be huge this season. A participant in this conversation said you can't rely on schedule strength from last year. Why not? Don't we need a reason to draft guys? If you see something that puts one player above others in your mind, is it not valid? This inspired me to take a look at some teams that have favorable schedules for the 2015 season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the 28th ranked schedule. Their opponents in 2015 were a combined 108-146-2, a winning percentage of .425. When you look just a bit deeper you find that the Bucs are providing Jameis Winston a lovely soft landing spot. The Tampa Bay passing offense will face defenses that average the 22nd ranked pass defense last season. They will not face any of the top 10 pass defenses from last season; in fact only playing 4 games against teams inside the top 15 last year. This should offer bountiful opportunities to Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, and if he can stay healthy Austin Sefarian-Jenkins.
The running game for Tampa is similarly facing a plus situation. The average rank of their opponents run defense is 19.6, and they face only 2 top 10 run defenses. I am not quite sure what will happen with the running back depth chart, but keep a watch on their reports, and as a guy comes to the front of the pack, targeting him in your drafts might be a good idea.
The Dallas Cowboys have the 24th ranked schedule in the league for 2015. Their opponents record for 2014 was 119-136-1 for a win percentage of .467. Losing DeMarco Murray could be a big blow to their running game with no clear successor, but their line is just so good. Dallas will only face 3 top 10 run defenses through the entire season and the average rank of their opponents defenses is 17. Combined with the talent of their line, that should set up whoever wins the job as feature back for the Cowboys pretty well.
The passing game took a step back last season, but might be forced to step forward again this season. If Dallas cannot find a back to be successful behind their top level offensive line, they might need to rely on Tony Romo and the passing game. Their opponents defenses won't be too terrible to face off against, averaging a rank of 18th against the pass. The Cowboys will only face 4 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. Obviously Dez Bryant is always a great selection at receiver. We often hear of the breakout 3rd season for a wide receiver, and we might see that this year from Terrance Williams. He scored 8 touchdowns last year on only 37 catches. I would only look at him as a late round guy who has some upside potential. If he can be more consistent you may get some value from him.
The Philadelphia Eagles have the23rd ranked schedule for the 2015 season. Their opponents record for 2014 was 121-134-1, a win percentage of .475. The addition of DeMarco Murray to the backfield running behind a top tier offensive line from last season should excite people. The Average Run Defense the Eagles will face this season is 15.5, and they will only face 5 top 10 teams from last season. Ryan Mathews is a slightly confounding component to the Philadelphia backfield, but it seems likely that DeMarco will get the bulk of the carries.
The passing game is set up even better for the Eagles this season. The average of pass defenses from last season the Eagles will face this year is 19.62, and they will only face 2 top 10 pass defenses from last season. In my opinion this should push Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, and Nelson Agholor up your boards a bit. The quarterback situation in Philly is still murky, as Mark Sanchez ended last season with the starting job, but the eagles brought in Sam Bradford, who was still injured after tearing his ACL last season with the Rams. Whichever guy wins this job just might be worth a late round pick to stash just in case.
Coming soon FantasyFootballFTW will be doing a more in depth breakdown of the schedule numbers for each team, both good and bad.
