My Playbook

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

The Resurgence of Steve Smith

 Steve Smith has been in the NFL for quite a long time. He played for the Panthers from 2001-2013. This year signing with the Ravens as a free agent. It seems that his new team is allowing him an opportunity to shine once again as a fantasy receiver.
Image source thebaltimorewire.com

After posting his worst numbers since 2010 last year in the Panthers offense, making 64 catches on 110 targets for 745 yards and 4 touchdowns, Smith is having a resurgent year in his first season in Baltimore. Through his first three games in 2014 he has 18 catches on 32 targets for 290 yards and a touchdown. His yards per catch is tied for the third highest in his career so far this season at 16.1, and his yards per game are also the third highest in his career at 96.7.

Smith had an average draft position on ESPN fantasy football of 111. This being the case, he would be someone to target in a trade for either another wide receiver, a mid level running back, or a tight end if his current fantasy team needs some help at that position. His upcoming schedule has some very nice match ups with the likes of the Panthers in week 4, Colts in week 5, Bucs in week 6, and Falcons in week 7. Having a late bye in week 11 is a positive as well. If you trade for him now, you would get 8 serviceable weeks before having to take him out of your lineup for his bye.

The schedule also sets up nicely for smith as the fantasy playoffs begin. The Ravens play the Dolphins in week 14 who have given up 5 passing touchdowns through the first 3 weeks of the season. In week 15 they play Jacksonville who are dead last in passing defense in the league.

Smith would make a nice addition as a wide receiver 2 or flex to a team who is not happy with their current wide receiver situation, with some serious playoff upside.

Trade Target: DeAndre Hopkins

DeAndre Hopkins is starting his year off with some decent numbers for the Houston Texans. He is today's focus of the target.

Hopkins has 13 catches, 2 touchdowns, and is averaging almost 17.5 yards per catch. The number 2 wide receiver in Houston for the time being, he is likely to draw the second corner on opposing teams, and will most likely not get double coverage much. I am a fan of the talented number 2 receivers in an offense who have talent. Year 2 is often a breakout season for talented players at the position.

His upcoming match ups seem to lend themselves to the possibility of his numbers being sustainable for the duration. Buffalo in week 4 is a difficult draw for Hopkins, but after that the Texans play against the Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers who lost Ike Taylor this week with a broken arm, Tennessee Titans, and Philadelphia Eagles before their week 10 bye. This schedule provides for some good games, and has a few possible shootouts with teams that have good offense and questionable defense.

Hopkins was most likely a round 4-6 pick in your draft depending on league size and rules. This should make his price considerably less than the top tier receivers and provide a good return on your investment. I would consider offering a mid level running back if you can spare one to the Hopkins owner in your league. If said owner doesn't like the idea of trading Hopkins, take a week and if he doesn't have a good game against Buffalo, give it another try.

The fantasy playoff run starts out quite well for Hopkins schedule, before toughening up during week 16. But if your playoffs run until week 17, the Texans play Jacksonville twice in the last 4 weeks of the season. Hopkins would be a primary and affordable target for a trade who could produce monster results.

Tight End Replacements For Week Four

The last few weeks in the NFL have taken a toll on the tight end position. With injuries and bye weeks starting in week 4 many fantasy players will be looking for a replacement for the short or long term. Here is a list of suggestions for a replacement tight end.

Larry Donnell (NYG) has been a good safety valve for Eli Manning in the first few weeks of the season. Donnell has averaged 6 catches a game and scored in week 1. If he is not owned in your league, he is a good option to pick up.

Niles Paul (WAS) has been getting targets with Jordan Reed out. Averaging 6 receptions a game for the first 3 weeks, and having a touchdown in week 2 makes him a viable addition to your team.

Owen Daniels (BAL) didn't see much action in the passing game in week 3, but he had 4 catches in week 1 and 5 in week 2 with two touchdowns. With the injury to Dennis Pitta and his familiarity in the Gary Kubiak offense, Daniels figures to see a more prominent role in the Baltimore passing attack.

Andrew Quarless (GB) had four catches and a touchdown in week 3 against Detroit. Quarless seems to have emerged as the pass catching tight end in the Green Bay offense. Some decent looking matchups against a depleted Chicago secondary in week 4 and Minnesota in week 5 set him up for success in the coming weeks.

Jace Amaro (NYJ) had 3 catches for 54 yards against Chicago Monday night. In an offense that is lacking in overall talent at pass catching positions, and has an iffy Eric Decker with a hamstring injury, Amaro may see an increased role.

Jeff Cumberland (NYJ) may see increased targets if Decker has a prolonged absence. His production has not been very big so far, but in an offense that will struggle at the outside wide receiver spots without Decker, he may be worth a speculative add in case of emergency.

Dwayne Allen (IND) has been all or nothing this season. He has scored in 2 of the first 3 games, and had no catches in the other. some tough match ups await the Colts in the near future, but if you have a desperate need at tight end, he does catch the ball.

Lance Kendricks and Jared Cook (STL) both had good games against Dallas in week three. This is likely a testament to how decimated and devoid of overall talent the Dallas defense is, so approach these guys with caution.