My Playbook

Saturday, December 6, 2014

Start Sit Week 14

For many of you, this will be the first week of the fantasy playoffs. For others, this will be the last week until they start. I assume that if you are still reading, it means good things, or you are just as much of a fantasy football sicko as I have become. Either way, lets look at the start sit for week 14 together.

Start

Josh Gordon (CLE) takes on the Colts at home this week. Indianapolis will be without Vontae Davis this week, and that should lead to a field day for Gordon against the Colts. It is also likely that in his third week back from suspension, Gordon has worked out some of the bugs in his route running and the offense and should strike gold for you this week. A shootout is definitely possible in this game against the high octane offense of Indy, so expect a lot of scoring. Get Gordon in your lineup.

Delanie Walker (TEN) is very nearly the last man standing in the passing attack of the Titans. Losing Justin Hunter last week, and likely without Kendall Wright as well this week, Walker should see a large uptick in targets and production this week. The match up for Walker is fantastic as well, taking on the Giants who are reeling and have given up 20 touchdowns through the air on the season. In the vast wasteland that has been the tight end position this season, Walker should be a bright spot this week. Start him.

Frank Gore (SF) has a fantastic opportunity to be the hero in a cross bridge rivalry game with the Oakland Raiders and their 27th ranked run defense. Oakland has allowed 130.5 yards per game, and 13 scores on the ground this season. Last week the Rams showed us how it was done, torching the Raiders with their running game. The only possible negative is that the 49ers get up big early and decide to take Gore out and run Carlos Hyde, but by that time Gore may have already put up solid numbers for you. Start him.

Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb (GB) has the fortune of facing off against the worst passing defense in the league this week when he and the Packers in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field. The Falcons by yardage are the worst pass defense, likely because they are easy to punch it in against, but I don't see both Cobb and Nelson having trouble finding the end zone. The Packers have been scoring almost at will, and that is unlikely to stop this week against Atlanta. You better have both these guys playing if you want to win.

Sit

LeSean McCoy (PHI) has a tough match up this week against the Seahawks, and his track record this year against good run defenses is not so good. On the season McCoy only has one performance over 10 fantasy points in a PPR format against a top 15 run defense, and even expanding that to 15 points the number only swells to 2. The Seahawks have been playing their best defensive ball of the season, and have the 5th ranked run defense on the season, allowing only 86.3 yards per game. It is tough medicine, but sitting McCoy will cure what ails ya.

Eric Decker (NYJ) is a victim of multiple circumstances for the Jets. Terrible quarterback play, injuries, and now facing the 6th ranked pass defense of the Vikings on the road. If the Jets employ a similar game plan as last week, Decker is lost. Somehow Decker caught 2 passes of the 13 thrown by Geno Smith. The Vikes only allow 219 yards per game, and I would expect that number to go down this week. I would not even think about starting Decker this week.

Percy Harvin (NYJ) falls under a the same category as his teammate Eric Decker. The only bonus for Harvin over Decker is that he gets some rushing yards, but this offense and team are a complete mess. On the season, split between two teams, and two offenses, Harvin has been a disaster. Having only 1 game over 50 receiving yards on the season, and 188 rushing yards on the season, if you have been playing Harvin and made the playoffs, the rest of your team is amazing. Plug in any random player and carry on. 

Tre Mason (STL) take on a surprisingly stout run defense of Washington this week. Washington is ranked 9th against the run, and allows only 102.8 yards per game on the ground. Points may be hard to come by this week, and the Rams might have a better chance through the air where Washington has given up 26 touchdowns. After a huge game last week, I expect a big letdown this week for Mason. Sit him.

Sammy Watkins (BUF) has fallen off the last 4 games. Reports that he is dealing with groin and hip issues seem to have limited him. It hasn't helped that Watkins has been facing some good corners, and that is going to continue this week when Buffalo takes on Denver on the road. Watkins will be taking on Aqib Talib, and will once again have a tough time. Banged up and facing a defense that allows only 229.7 yards per game through the air, I am sitting Watkins this week.

Ryan Mathews (SD) is facing the 13th ranked run defense in the league this week in the New England Patriots. The ranking is somewhat deceptive as the Pats have allowed only 5 rushing touchdowns on the season. Mathews had missed much of the season, and is fresh, but in the first week of the playoffs, I am not inclined to recommend that you start Mathews this week.

That brings us once again to the end of the start sit article this week. Here is hoping that this article helps you to either your playoffs, or to the next round. Go out there and get 'em. Good luck this week!

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Handcuffing Your Positions

Recently I have read and heard on some of my favorite podcasts the idea of handcuffing positions other than running backs. I thought I would chime in on this subject as it seems to be a hot topic people are concerned with.

There are some obvious cases of handcuffs for running backs in the NFL. Guys like Knile Davis to back up Jamaal Charles, and James Starks for Eddie Lacy. On the flip side of that, there are plenty of teams that you would not want to have a back up for. Point being, there are players to handcuff because of either their talent or opportunity. A reasonably talented back up running back can step in and be productive for both their team, and your fantasy team.

The question I have repeatedly been hearing and reading is about handcuffing your wide recievers. This led me to wonder if handcuffing either receivers or tight ends is something you should do. My thought on this is that there are some specific and rare cases where it makes some sense to me, but overall there isn't a lot of value in the third or fourth receiver in an offense.

Some of the players I would consider taking a flyer on rostering in case their teammate gets an injury during the fantasy playoffs are as follows:

Davante Adams (GB) has been a decent receiver for the Packers this season, and if Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb went down, Adams would see his role increase, and he has the talent to rise to the occasion. If you are an owner of Nelson or Cobb, Adams is worth a roster spot in case of emergency.

Donte Moncrief (IND) has shown explosive play ability and has been increasing his snap count in recent weeks. If something were to happen to TY Hilton or Reggie Wayne in the next few weeks, it is likely that the workload would end up on Moncrief's plate. Worth a stash for the next few weeks, especially if you are in a keeper or Dynasty league.

Wes Welker, Cody Latimer, Andre Caldwell (DEN) are all players that could be treated as handcuff type players for the Broncos. Welker has been disappointing this season, missing time for suspension and injury, and not performing well overall. These three players would all have a chance to gain more playing time and relevance. In my opinion the pecking order of these players would be Welker, Caldwell, Latimer, but teh only one I would think about rostering is Welker as a handcuff. Caldwell and Latimer are hail mary guys and should be left on the wire until proven otherwise.

Tim Wright (NE) has had some productive games so far this season, but has been very dependent on scoring. If something were to happen to Rob Gronkowski, Wright would have a big opportunity in an offense that is very big on using the tight end in the receiving game. If you own Gronk, Wright is worth a stash over a 5th running back or wide receiver you are unlikely to play in the next few weeks.

Niles Paul (WAS) played well in the absence of Jordan Reed this season, and as long as Colt McCoy is the quarterback for Washington, the tight ends will be productive. McCoy loves to utilize the tight end and throws a lot of passes in the middle of the field where the tight ends live. Paul should likely be owned if you have Reed as your only tight end.

This time of year it is important to protect your roster with players that will be playing. An injury to a major player on your roster is likely catastrophic during the playoffs, One thing to remember about the handcuff players is that they will not be as good as the player in front of them, but it can make sense to have them to conserve some possible value from teams with high powered high scoring offenses. Good luck in your playoffs this week!

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Waiver Wire Playoff Edition Week 14

Welcome to the playoffs. If you are still reading this, I assume you made it. Congrats. If you didn't make it and are still reading, you are just as sick as me. Not a lot to love on the waiver wire this week, but a few gambles if you are in bad shape. Let's take a look.

RB

Daniel Herron (IND) is the best healthy running back in Indy. The Colts didn't run a lot last week, but the best back on the field was definitely Herron. Going 8 for 88 and a touchdown and adding 2 catches, Herron is a solid addition to those who have lost their running back in the past few weeks with some starters going down.

Marion Grice (ARI) is a throw of a dart at who will get the touches in Arizona if Andre Ellington is out this week with a hip pointer. Grice got the most work after Ellington went down, but at this point I don't really want anything to do with any part of the Cardinals offense. Grice is a super desperation addition this week as the role of all is not clear. The Cards had recently added Michael Bush to their roster as well, but he had been out of football before getting signed. Proceed with caution with any Arizona running back not named Andre.

WR

Robert Woods (BUF) has been a consistent performer for the Bills over the past few weeks. In week 13 Woods had 4 catches for 71 yards, and in week 12 Woods had 9 catches for 118 yards and a score. The Bills face the Denver Broncos this week, and if Aqib Talib is out again, it might be a good game for the Bills through the air. Denver has allowed 24 touchdowns through the air this season. If you are in need, Woods is a decent addition.

Davante Adams (GB) had himself a game against the Patriots in week 13. Catching 6 balls for 121 yards, Adams was a good performer for the Pack. This week the Packers face the Atlanta Falcons and their worst ranked pass defense on Monday night. There should be plenty of yardage to go around. Adams is a good addition if you need some help at receiver.

Donte Moncrief (IND) has been used sparingly this season, but at some point the Colts have to realize the explosiveness that Moncrief adds to their lineup. In his biggest games this season, Moncrief has had over 100 yards and has scored 3 touchdowns. His production has been off and on, but when he is given a shot he has shown big play ability. Facing Cleveland this week, if the Colts put him on the field, he could have a big day against the second or third corner for the Browns. Moncrief is a gamble, but can provide huge dividends if he hits for you.

QB

Johnny Manziel (CLE) got his first real NFL action last week, and early this week it seems like he might get his first start against the Colts this week. I wouldn't look forward to starting him in a 10 or 12 team league, but in a 2 quarterback or keeper format he should now be rostered. I don't like the idea of a rookie passer, but Johnny Football has the ability to run, including a rushing touchdown last week.