Taking A Good Look At QB: Guys I Don't Want On My Team

In my last article I wrote about some quarterbacks that I was interested in having on my team for the upcoming season based on their consistent play and 2015 schedules. So it seems obvious that I should take a look at the other side of that equation as well. Here is a look at some quarterbacks I don't want to draft for the upcoming season.

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Jay Cutler (CHI) has had an up and down career. The early off season chatter had rumors of Cutler on the trading block or being cut, but his contract is a huge handcuff for the Bears. Cutler has been an inconsistent player, although he was 67% consistent last season according to the statistics of ffconsistency.com. The loss of Brandon Marshall, who didn't do much last season due to injuries, could loom large for Cutler and the Bears in 2015. Alshon Jeffery is a fine player, and can likely be a great number 1 receiver, but that is still to be proven. Eddie Royal was brought in this year and has familiarity with the offense and Cutler, but he has often been a flash in the pan type of fantasy option.

The biggest hurdle for the Bears passing game this year is a brutal schedule. They have a tie for the worst upcoming schedule in the league against the pass. The average rank of the pass defenses the bears will face in 2015 is 12.31. In addition they will play against a whopping 9 top 10 pass defenses from a season ago. In recent years the offensive line has not been great, and word has been that they are using a rookie at left tackle. It could be a long season for Da Bears, Cutler, and his owners in fantasy.

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Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) is a trendy name in fantasy right now. After being the 5th highest scoring

quarterback in 2014, many people are touting him for the 2015 season. Scoring a 56% consistency in 2014, Roethlisberger was 9th in consistency. But digging a little bit deeper into his numbers, there emerges some troubling trends for his play.

In 2015 the Steelers will play the 29th ranked schedule of pass defenses, with an average rank of 13.5. Of the Steelers 16 games, 7 will be played against top 10 defenses from a year ago. Over the last 3 seasons Big Ben has not fared well against the top level defenses he has faced. In 14 games played against top 10 defenses over that span he has only put up quality games in 5, for an average of about 36%. Let us also recall that 12 of his 32 touchdowns from a season ago came in just 2 games. As much as I love Antonio Brown, I can't love Ben this year.

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Phillip Rivers (SD) makes the list of quarterbacks I have no interest in for the 2015 season as well. Having just a 50% consistency rating last 2 seasons, and a dismal 25% in 2012, he is not the model of efficiency for your fantasy roster. Oddly he does seem to play better on the road against top defenses than at home. Against average defenses (between 11 and 22) he is an abysmal 1 quality game in 14 tries.

The upcoming season will see the Chargers take on the 27th hardest pass defense lineup, averaging 13.75 overall. Of the defenses they will face, 8 of them were ranked in the top 10 last year. With an aging tight end and number 2 receiver, a lot will be left on the shoulders of Keenan Allen, who had a disappointing sophomore season. I'm passing on Rivers this season.

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Matthew Stafford (DET) has been a guy I targeted in my leagues in the past. Throwing to one of the

best wide receivers in the game is a good thing for your fantasy quarterback. But Calvin Johnson had trouble staying healthy last year, and is losing favor in the fantasy community. A healthy Johnson could bounce back this season, but I don't think I will be taking a chance on Stafford in 2015.

The Lions face a pretty tough schedule in the upcoming year, averaging a rank of 14.68 they have the 23rd toughest pass defense schedule. Add to that the fact that they will face 9 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago and it is a tough road this year for Detroit. Stafford only scored 237 fantasy points in ESPN leagues last year, making him tied for 15th. In his previous 2 season he was a pretty consistent quarterback, 75% in 2012, and 69% in 2013, but his 50% in 2014 shows a trend in the wrong direction. I'm leaving him to the masses this year.

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Andy Dalton (CIN) had a brutal year in 2014. It didn't help that he was without much of a wide receiver target for a large portion of the year. With basically 1 NFL level talent for some games catching his passes, Dalton was only 38% consistent last season. His overall consistency numbers over the 2 previous seasons were only 56%. Dalton only scored 210 fantasy points in 2014, and that includes 4 rushing touchdowns that I wouldn't count on again in 2015.

The Bengals face a tough schedule coming up this year. Coming in at the 24th hardest pass defense schedule faced, averaging a rank of 14.06, it isn't going to be easy. Dalton will run into 8 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. Dalton has fared well on the road against top defenses in the past, but not as well at home, and plays inconsistently against even the lower tier defenses. After being the 18th ranked quarterback in fantasy points last season, I can't say I want anything to do with Dalton for the upcoming year.

Hopefully this has shed some light on the other side of the fantasy quarterback. Making educated decisions on which guys to get, and which guys to platoon will lead you to success in your leagues in 2015. Look for more to come on running backs, receivers, and tight ends in the near future.

Taking A Good Look At QB

Wait on one. Take one in the late first round. Don't take one until the mid rounds. The advice on the quarterback position is all over the board. The top 6 scoring players in ESPN standard leagues were quarterbacks. What does this mean? You can get one of them at every part of the draft the advice suggests. But which one to get? I posit that schedule and consistent play can lead you to great situations.

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Last year Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck were a cut above. Scoring 342 and 336 points respectively in ESPN standard scoring. Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning were a tier of their own at 312 and 307. Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees complete the list of pre-cliff QB's scoring 295 and 290. From there it went downhill, but not to despair.

So how to decide when and who to take at the quarterback position? Some of that is personal, and based largely on draft strategy. If a top tier guy falls far enough for me, like Rodgers or Luck in the 3rd round, I might take them. But I myself find that I like to wait and fill out the rest of my roster, and some of my bench, before I snag a QB. There is value in the mid to late rounds of the draft at the QB position.

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Obviously Luck and Rodgers are great quarterbacks, both NFL and fantasy. They were both tied with ffconsistency.com, tops in the league. This season Luck is in prime position to have a stellar performance. Indy has added offensive weapons like Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, Duron Carter, and Phillip Dorsett. Adding those players to TY Hilton and tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener makes one potent offense. Then look at the numbers of the defenses they will face in 2015 and your mouth should start watering. The average rank of the pass defenses that the Colts will face in the upcoming season is 18. They have the 9th best schedule for pass defenses they will face from 2014 numbers. On top of that, they will only face 3 top 10 defenses against the pass from last season. I certainly can't blame anyone for taking Luck in their draft.

81% consistency ratings according to Bob Lung's ratings on

Aaron Rodgers has some good offensive weapons as well in Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Eddie Lacy. Davante Adams still has some proving himself to do, but Arod was singing his praises this off season. The big difference I find between Luck and Rodgers is that Rodgers faces a more formidable schedule of pass defenses. The Packers average pass defense faced for the 2015 season is 13.87, the 26th ranked schedule in the league. They will square off against 7 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. Now don't get this info wrong. I don't think that Rodgers will not play well this season, he is a great  quarterback, but his road is much tougher than Luck.

So let's turn our attention to some mid to late round quarterbacks that, should you choose not to draft Luck and Rodgers, have favorable schedules based on the defenses they will face.

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Drew Brees is currently ranked 42 in average draft position (ADP) on Fantasypros.com. Fantasy Pros uses a blended ranking of multiple sites to give you an average across many platforms. Brees was 75% consistent last season, and about 79% over the past 3 seasons, according to Bob Lung of ffconsistency.com and socalledfantasyexperts.com. This means that Brees has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks over the last 3 seasons. In the upcoming season Brees has the second best ranked schedule of defenses against the pass. The Saints average pass defense faced in 2015 was 22.06, and they won't face a single top 10 pass defense from a year ago. On top of that, they will play a total of 10 games indoors this season. At a 4th round value for a 10 team league, or late 3rd in a 12 team, Brees should definitely be on your radar this season.

Tony Romo is currently a 7th round (10 team) or 6th round (12 team) pick according to Fantasy Pros ADP. Romo was a 73% consistent player last season. This year he has the 8th best schedule against opposing pass defenses from a year ago, an average defense of 18.31. Dallas will only face a top 10 pass defense 4 times this season. With turmoil in the backfield of the Cowboys this off season, it might make sense that Dallas could pass more against the weak pass defenses they will face. As long as everyone pertinent to the Cowboys pass attack makes it out of the preseason unscathed, and Dez Bryant doesn't miss any time, Romo is a guy that is high up on my list for 2015.

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Russell Wilson is pretty good at football. Both running the ball, and passing it. And this season you

might just see the Seahawks open up their offense against some sub-par defenses. The addition of Jimmy Graham will loom large for the Hawks this season. A big physical target in the middle of the field should open up the outside, and the element of surprise will always be with the play action and read option. Wilson had a monster season on the ground in 2014, rushing for 849 yards and 6 scores. In addition to his amazing rushing stats, Wilson threw for over 3400 yards and 20 touchdowns, while only having 7 interceptions. In a sort of contract year, expect only top level play from Wilson in 2015. In terms of consistency, Russell was at 69% last year, good for 7th among quarterbacks. The schedule shapes up nicely for Wilson and the Seahawks passing attack this season as well. They will face the 11th best schedule against pass defenses, averaging 17.56. They will only face 5 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. At 35th overall in ADP his price might be a little bit high for my liking, but he has multiple ways to score you points.

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Last but not least for this article, Eli Manning. I've never been much of an Eli guy, but I am kind of interested in him this season. I do need to hear some good things about the shape of the offensive line for the Giants, and I would like to see Victor Cruz back by the beginning of the season, but it is hard to deny the talent we saw from Odell Beckham Jr. last season. Eli threw for 4410 yards and 30 touchdowns last season, with only 14 interceptions. The new uptempo offense seemed to suit him, and he was able to help make Odell a household name. Eli was  tied for 10th in consistency last season at 56%. The Giants have the 6th best schedule in relation to pass defenses faced from 2014, averaging a rank of 19.37. They will only face 4 top 10 defenses from last year. Assuming that the Giants are able to lock down the line, and Cruz can still play, Eli could be a steal at an ADP of 99 overall. 

So as you can see, yes there are some elite guys out there. They will never be bad selections, but are they necessary? If you can acquire top level talent at other positions that will not be available later in the draft, you can still find your value guys later in the draft.

Schedules That Set Up Well

I entered a conversation on twitter about a month back about Julio Jones. My input was similar to my recent article where I lauded Jones for his talents, and also noted that his schedule was set up for him to be huge this season. A participant in this conversation said you can't rely on schedule strength from last year. Why not? Don't we need a reason to draft guys? If you see something that puts one player above others in your mind, is it not valid? This inspired me to take a look at some teams that have favorable schedules for the 2015 season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the 28th ranked schedule. Their opponents in 2015 were a combined 108-146-2, a winning percentage of .425. When you look just a bit deeper you find that the Bucs are providing Jameis Winston a lovely soft landing spot. The Tampa Bay passing offense will face defenses that average the 22nd ranked pass defense last season. They will not face any of the top 10 pass defenses from last season; in fact only playing 4 games against teams inside the top 15 last year. This should offer bountiful opportunities to Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, and if he can stay healthy Austin Sefarian-Jenkins.
The running game for Tampa is similarly facing a plus situation. The average rank of their opponents run defense is 19.6, and they face only 2 top 10 run defenses. I am not quite sure what will happen with the running back depth chart, but keep a watch on their reports, and as a guy comes to the front of the pack, targeting him in your drafts might be a good idea.

The Dallas Cowboys have the 24th ranked schedule in the league for 2015. Their opponents record for 2014 was 119-136-1 for a win percentage of .467. Losing DeMarco Murray could be a big blow to their running game with no clear successor, but their line is just so good. Dallas will only face 3 top 10 run defenses through the entire season and the average rank of their opponents defenses is 17. Combined with the talent of their line, that should set up whoever wins the job as feature back for the Cowboys pretty well.
The passing game took a step back last season, but might be forced to step forward again this season. If Dallas cannot find a back to be successful behind their top level offensive line, they might need to rely on Tony Romo and the passing game. Their opponents defenses won't be too terrible to face off against, averaging a rank of 18th against the pass. The Cowboys will only face 4 top 10 pass defenses from a year ago. Obviously Dez Bryant is always a great selection at receiver. We often hear of the breakout 3rd season for a wide receiver, and we might see that this year from Terrance Williams. He scored 8 touchdowns last year on only 37 catches. I would only look at him as a late round guy who has some upside potential. If he can be more consistent you may get some value from him.

The Philadelphia Eagles have the23rd ranked schedule for the 2015 season. Their opponents record for 2014 was 121-134-1, a win percentage of .475. The addition of DeMarco Murray to the backfield running behind a top tier offensive line from last season should excite people. The Average Run Defense the Eagles will face this season is 15.5, and they will only face 5 top 10 teams from last season. Ryan Mathews is a slightly confounding component to the Philadelphia backfield, but it seems likely that DeMarco will get the bulk of the carries.
The passing game is set up even better for the Eagles this season. The average of pass defenses from last season the Eagles will face this year is 19.62, and they will only face 2 top 10 pass defenses from last season. In my opinion this should push Jordan Matthews, Zach Ertz, and Nelson Agholor up your boards a bit. The quarterback situation in Philly is still murky, as Mark Sanchez ended last season with the starting job, but the eagles brought in Sam Bradford, who was still injured after tearing his ACL last season with the Rams. Whichever guy wins this job just might be worth a late round pick to stash just in case.

Coming soon FantasyFootballFTW will be doing a more in depth breakdown of the schedule numbers for each team, both good and bad.

Forsett It, And Forget It

The 2014 season had some surprising characters come to the forefront of the NFL story. In the wake of the Ray Rice scandal that rocked both the league, and the Baltimore Ravens, Justin Forsett is one of those characters. That combined with a few other factors make him a guy I want on my teams in 2015.

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Forsett racked up 235 carries during the 2014 season, turning them into 1266 yards and 8 touchdowns on the ground. That made him the 5th ranked back in yards. He added 44 receptions for 263 yards to his solid rushing totals. Using Bob Lung's quality game consistency stats, www.ffconsistency.com, Forsett had 81% consistency rating, good for a tie for 7th with Marshawn Lynch.

This off season the Ravens have added Mark Trestman as their offensive coordinator. Trestman is

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generally thought of as an offensive genius, and for the last few seasons was the mastermind behind the Chicago Bears offense. What the Bears, and more specifically Matt Forte, did at the running back position leads to much excitement for me. Over the Trestman years in Chicago, Forte was a PPR juggernaut. During the 2013 and 2014 seasons Forte had 2377 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. Add to that 225 targets in the passing game, resulting in 176 catches for 1402 yards and 7 receiving touchdowns. Combined that is 3779 yards and 22 touchdowns over 2 seasons. With Forsett showing that he can catch passes, this leaves his ceiling very high in PPR formats.

The Ravens schedule on first look, seemed to be a somewhat difficult one, opening the season with 3 of 4 on the road. But when you look at last seasons defensive rankings against the run for their opponents it doesn't look so bad. Opening the year at Denver is not a Positive thing for Forsett and the Ravens, but it gets better after that. For the season they will only face 4 top 10 ranked run defenses in 2015, and San Francisco is suspect given all their losses on the defensive side of the ball. The average rank of run defenses they will face in the upcoming season is 19, in the bottom half of the rankings.

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Forsett should have good value. Fantasy Pros has Forsett ranked 35 overall, and running back 16. In the MFL 10 and 25's he is going at 33 overall, and has an ADP of 35.13. This should make him a late third or early 4th round selection for you in your redraft leagues. Such great value for a guy allows you to take either a top tier running back in round 1, and by the time you get to the early fourth round you could have a top back and 2 top wide receivers, using Forsett to back fill your starting skill position players with a high ceiling guy.

The Wide Receiver I Want Most On My Teams In 2015

Well it has been a long hiatus from writing on this blog, but I'm back. During the playoffs and the off season I didn't stop thinking, just hadn't written anything. But from this point forward, let's get back in the swing of fantasy football together.

The guy I am most interested in at the wide receiver position this season is Julio Jones. Jones was a monster last season for the Falcons offense, and I don't think that is going to change this season.

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In 2014 Julio caught 104 passes for 1593 yards and 6 scores. He did miss one game toward the end of the season after a huge game against Green Bay. Barring his broken screw in the foot in 2014 his durability has been decent. Jones played in 13 games his rookie season, 16 games in 2012, and 15 games last year. 

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In 2015 the Falcons will play the easiest schedule in the NFL. Their division is bad. Their schedule is great. Atlanta will face only 2 top 10 pass defenses from 2014. The average ranking of the pass defenses they will face in 2015 was 19.5, the lower half of the league. Another bonus is that the Falcons will play 10 games indoors next season, including their games at Dallas and New Orleans. The indoor surface tends to play faster than outdoor, which could lead to more production for Jones and the potent Atlanta passing attack. Listening to the Fantasy Football Today podcast from CBS this week, the guys said that Kyle Shanahan has a tendency to pepper one player with targets, and one would posit that Jones is the likely recipient of this.

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Finally taking a look at the rest of the team, Roddy White isn't getting any younger. Harry Douglas is

gone. The rest of the WR corps is unproven. The defense, which will likely be improved, will probably not be a world beater. This could lead to many games being shootouts, ballooning Julio's stats even further.

I like Jones in the late first round if all the top tier running backs are off the board. If you have the sandwich picks at the end of round 1 and beginning of round 2 and he is still there, don't let him get past you, I think you'll be sorry.