My Playbook

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Start Sit Week 12

Week 12 is upon us, and some fantastic match ups for some great individual players are on tap for this week. On the flip side a few fantasy stalwarts may not be the scoring dynamos that we have come to rely on this week. Let's take a look at this weeks start sit players.

Starts 

Josh Gordon (CLE) is back this week from suspension. According to report he is in great shape, and has been at the team facility and looking good. The Browns play against the Atlanta Falcons this week, which is about the best match up you could think of for Gordon in his return. Atlanta has the worst pass defense in the league, allowing 281.2 yards per game through the air. Most of you have been keeping him on your bench for a part of the season, now is your time. start him this week.

Andrew Hawkins (CLE) is now the other half of the receiving attack that could now be much more formidable than it has been. Hawkins has been a solid PPR performer all season, but now with Josh Gordon returning, it seems likely that Hawkins will be receiving less attention from defenses and have more room to work with. Facing the Falcons this week I expect big things from Hawkins in his now complimentary role to Gordon. Hawkins is a great start for a wide receiver 2 or flex this week.

Trent Richardson (IND) is quite possibly now the man in Indianapolis. With Ahmad Bradshaw
breaking his ankle in week 11, Richardson is now the lead back and should see the larger share of the workload for the Colts going forward. This is only somewhat exciting as Richardson has been less than thrilling since coming into the league, but a starting running back has value for fantasy. This week the Colts face off against the 26th ranked run defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are allowing 126.2 yards per game on the ground this season. Richardson is now a running back 2 or flex play and should be started this week.

Image source: fansided.com
Sammy Watkins (BUF) should take on the Jets in Buffalo this week, assuming that the entire stadium isn't covered in snow. As of writing this post, it is less likely that the game will be in Buffalo on Sunday, and could likely move to either Detroit or Washington on Monday night. Given lots of rest and assuming that the Bills get a chance to get in some practice before the game, Watkins should be healthy and ready to score against the New York Jets 15th ranked pass defense. The Jets don't give up the most yards per game (240.5), but they have allowed the most passing touchdowns through the air at 25 on the season. Look for Watkins to put up some numbers this week and start him.

Image source: azcentral.com
Andre Ellington (ARI) has a match up against the 7th ranked run defense of the Seattle Seahawks
this week. This normally would look to be a negative thing, but the Seahawks are missing some key players on defense. Couple that with the fact that the Cardinals are starting their back up quarterback on the road, and a commitment to the running game seems to be in order for Arizona. Look for Ellington to get a fair amount of touches both out of the backfield and in the passing game against the Seahawks this week.

Ryan Mathews (SD) has reasonably fresh legs for the San Diego Chargers after missing time earlier this season. The Chargers play against the 18th ranked run defense of the St. Louis Rams who allow 114.6 yards per game on the ground. The Chargers quarterback, Phillip Rivers, has a rib injury and I expect them to hand the ball to Mathews a lot this week in a decent match up at home. Mathews is a definite start for me in week 12.

Sits 
Image source: sidelionreport.com

Golden Tate (DET) faces a tough match up this week and is likely to be covered by a player quite familiar with him. Tate is likely to face off against former teammate Brandon Browner in New England this week. The Patriots have a good pass defense, which is ranked 17th, but had been missing Browner for the first few games of the season due to suspension. On the other side there is Revis Island to take care of Calvin Johnson, and that leaves Tate and Browner. The Lions have struggled on offense this season, both with and without Johnson, and I don't expect a huge game from any of the Lions in their second straight road game this week. I am sitting Golden Tate this week.

Cordarelle Patterson (MIN) is a guy I am finally done with. I held on as long as I could, but he's dead to me now. The Vikings offense is a mess. Patterson can't run routes or get open, and the Packers only allow 238.2 yards per game and have a 15:14 touchdown to interception ratio on the season. If you are still rostering Patterson, you may safely release him back into the wild at this point.

Image source: sportingnews.com
Alfred Morris (WAS) faces a daunting task this week squaring off against the 6th ranked run defense
of the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers allow 88.6 yards per game on the ground, and have only allowed 5 rushing touchdowns on the season. Given that Robert Griffin III is playing terribly, and the offense is a mess, it seems likely that San Francisco will be stacking the box and daring RG3 to beat them with his passing. Sit Morris this week.

Mark Ingram (NO) will be running into the 5th ranked run defense of the Baltimore Ravens in week 12. Baltimore allows 84.5 yards per game on the ground, and only 6 rushing touchdowns on the season. Ingram had a bad rushing game last week, and only really had value in PPR leagues due to catching 7 balls last week. In addition, I would be concerned that the heavy workload that he has been getting might catch up with an injury prone running back soon. Over the last 4 games Ingram has 104 runs, and has been anything but durable throughout his career. I don't trust the match up, and I don't trust Ingram this week.

Image source: patriots.com
Jonas Gray (NE) is the flavor of the week for the Patriots. Rushing for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns last week, Gray is set up to let you down this week. Among the many issues with Gray is the fact that Bill Belichick isn't the kind of coach that will give a running back consistent work, and you can never really trust the Patriots running backs. On top of that, the Pats face the top ranked run defense of the Detroit Lions this week. Detroit only allows 68.8 yards per game on the ground. The final issue I see with Gray this week is the arrival of LeGarrette Blount. Blount has a chance to take touches from Gray as he is likely fairly familiar with the offense of the Patriots having played for them last season. All of these reasons are more than enough for me to not trust Gray this week and recommend sitting him this week.

With just 2 weeks left in most leagues regular season, the final push is on. Many teams need a win this week to keep hope alive for the 2014 fantasy season. Here's hoping that this article will help you make good decisions and provide insight to help you make those playoffs. Good luck this week!