Jonathan Stewart is entering his eighth season in the NFL in
2015. Spending most of his career thus far sharing a backfield with DeAngelo
Williams has really hurt Stewart’s ability to score for Fantasy. Along with the
crowded backfield, injuries have sidelined Stewart for 22 games in his career.
So why would you want to draft a guy that has this history? Let’s take a look
at what lies ahead for him this season.
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Stewart hasn’t been as consistent as you might like to see
from a running back. Over his last three seasons Stewart has only scored a
quality game in nine of 28 games according to Bob Lung’s consistency guide. Looking at the breakdowns by
defense level, Stewart is consistently inconsistent. The best category for
consistency broken down by defense for Stewart is at home against good
defenses, scoring two of four quality games. Taking into account all other
defensive rankings together you get an average of 29% quality games. This does
not bode well for the chances for Stewart. Most of this second category of
quality games was against the bad and middle of the road defenses that should
allow for more scoring to a running back.
Taking a look at the schedule for the Carolina Panthers this
season has a bit of good news to it. The Panthers will be facing the second
best schedule of run defenses from 2014 rankings. The average rank of the run
defenses they will face this season is 19.68. The Panthers will have the luxury
of only facing off against three Top 10 run defenses from a season ago. The
season opens with a soft landing at Jacksonville. The Texans in Week Two
present a more difficult challenge. After that the following two games against
the Saints and Bucs will be good match ups. Then a rough match up against the
Seahawks leads to a cleaner finish to the season.
The playoff run for the Panthers looks pretty good. Week 14
sees the Falcons coming to town. Week 15 sees Carolina traveling to the already
banged up Giants. Week 16 sees the Panthers playing the Falcons for the second
time in three weeks. Even though you can expect the Falcons to play tougher
than last season under new coach Dan Quinn, they were the 21st
ranked run defense last year, and huge overnight change is unlikely. Finally if
you play through week 17, the Buccaneers and their 19th ranked pass
defense last season come to Carolina.
Stewart has an ADP that puts him at the end of the fourth
round overall. Going at 47th, his price puts him in the RB2 or RB3
category. In his same area of the ADP you can find players that I would both be
more comfortable with, and some that I would be less comfortable with. Andre
Ellington is at 49th in ADP right behind Stewart. I would probably
take Ellington over Stewart myself. On the flip side of that coin, Todd Gurley
is going at the 46th pick in ADP, and I would rather have both
Stewart and Ellington over Gurley in a redraft league. If you are picking in
this area there are a few other players for positions other than running back
that I would take over Stewart here.
Another consideration that you must have is the fact that
Stewart will have a hard time getting red zone touches. Not only is Cam Newton
a touchdown vulture up close, but the Panthers have a history of using Mike
Tolbert when they get in close. On top of those two taking away red zone
touches, the Panthers have taken on the basketball team mentality for their
wide receivers. Now having two very tall receivers, and Greg Olsen who is also
tall, the red zone is a crowded place for Carolina.
One thing to note for sure is that if you take Jonathan
Stewart for your 2015 Fantasy team, you need to grab Cameron Artis-Payne as a
backup. With Stewart being the poster child for getting injured over his
career, his back up is an important asset. The schedule is so good that the
next man up might have a shot at relevance as well.
Earlier this offseason I was all aboard the Stewart train.
As we get closer to the season, and I take a closer look at both where his ADP
is settling in at, and his overall situation, I have a hard time finding myself
wanting to take Stewart on my team this season. If available I would rather
take another running back or wide out at the same spot and wait for a Giovanni
Bernard type in round five.
