It's Never Too Early To Start Thinking Playoffs: The Good

I know it's only week 3, but it's never too early to set yourself up for playoff success. I have compiled a list of teams that have good and bad schedules through the fantasy playoffs. This list includes a lot of players that will do well during the regular season as well, but this will focus on weeks 14-17 on the NFL schedule. Today's post is for the players and teams with good match ups for the fantasy playoffs.

First up on my most desired team list is the Detroit Lions. Detroit's Playoff schedule is quite favorable. Home against Tampa Bay, home against Minnesota, at Chicago, and at Green Bay. If your playoffs go week 14-16, all of these match ups are good, and week 17 is solid as well. Tampa bay has looked terrible. Minnesota is a mess, and Chicago can't stop the run and just lost Tillman for the year. Now I know you may not be able to wrestle Megatron or Stafford away from their owner, but Detroit's high powered offense has plenty of weapons for you to look for. Joique Bell, Reggie Bush, and Golden Tate are all primed for great seasons. The playoff match ups make them some of the more desirable players for me. You may also want to keep an eye on Eric Ebron, just in case he starts to get it and gets involved. At this point in the season, all these guys, with exception of Megatron, shouldn't cost you too much, and will set you up to win that championship.

Second up on the list is the Dallas Cowboys. Yes I realize that Tony Romo is a huge choke artist. but their schedule sets up well for the playoffs. At Chicago, at Philadelphia, home for Indianapolis, and at Washington. I know that three of the final four are on the road, but so far the only one that looks like they have any sort of defense is the Eagles, and that isn't saying much with this list. Dez Bryant falls under a similar list as Calvin Johnson does, might be too expensive, but Terrance Williams may not cost you too much, and may not even be rostered in your leagues. Jason Witten has not been very involved so far, and should come fairly cheap. DeMarco Murray will cost you a pretty penny, but Lance Dunbar is likely floating around the waiver wire, and if you can afford a roster spot on your bench, Murray has quite an injury history. As for Tony Romo, two disappointing weeks will likely leave him costing less, but lets remember he is a choke artist of the highest order.

Third we have the Chicago Bears. Mark Trestman is apparently the offensive genius that he is made out to be. Just look at what Josh McCown did in week 3 against the mighty Atlanta defense. Chicago plays Dallas at home, New Orleans at home, Detroit at home, and at Minnesota their final four games of the season. All of these teams have suspect secondaries and three of them have trouble with stopping the run. Guys like Marshall and Forte might be in that too expensive category, but with Alshon Jeffery currently nursing a hamstring injury, if you can offer his current team owner a solid starting option, he may be willing to part with him. Martellus Bennett has been a big part of the offense in the first two weeks. Sure some of that may be due to the fact that Jeffery has been slowed, but he is putting up solid numbers so far. Jay Cutler is a bit of a wildcard. He has a history of injuries, and the offensive line he is behind has been bad and is dealing with some injuries, but if you don't have Peyton, Rodgers, or Brees he might be a guy you look to pick up. Chicago also has a fairly good schedule all season.

Next up the Atlanta Falcons. Fresh off a 56-14 drubbing of the Tampa Bay Bucs, these guys are going to be hot. Julio Jones is an absolute monster when he is healthy. Atlanta plays at Green Bay, home against Pittsburgh, at New Orleans, and home against Carolina to finish the season. Obviously Carolina is not a great matchup, but the rest look good. Roddy White missed the Tampa Bay game, which may make trading for him much cheaper. Harry Douglas left that game with an injury, but hes a flex option if healthy at the end of the season. Devin Hester is another to keep an eye on. If your league rules give points for kick returner touchdowns, he is obviously a threat to take one to the house at any time, and has been working on offense a lot more than expected. Not quite sure what to make of the running back position with Atlanta. Stephen Jackson as the lead back is at the point of a running back career where he is over the hill. He dealt with injuries last season, and hasn't done a ton so far this year, although he did score against the Bucs. Devonta Freeman is believed to be the handcuff for Jackson, but I'm not sure I want to roster any of the backs from Atlanta. Give me the wide receivers and Matty Ice.

The Philadelphia Eagles are next on my list of teams I'd like to own. Week 14 is a tough match up against the Seahawks, although it is at home. After that they are home against Dallas, at Washington, and at the Giants. The latter of these matchups, even with two road games, looks fantastic for your playoffs. There are plenty of options at wide receiver and tight end with the Eagles. Assuming health, Jeremy Maclin is fast and can score at any moment. If Riley Cooper can get on the same page as Nick Foles, he is a big receiver who can do well in close situations, or catch the occasional long bomb. Zac Ertz at tight end is a good red zone target for Foles as well. LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles are a dynamic duo out of the backfield. Sproles is coming off a huge game in week two, and the price is going to be high, but he is a perfect fit for the Chip Kelly offense. McCoy will also likely be expensive to trade for since he likely went in the top 5 picks in your draft. If not can I play in your leagues?

Then we have the Carolina Panthers. At New Orleans, home versus Tampa Bay, home versus Cleveland, and at Atlanta round out their playoff schedule. I have a few concerns with the Panthers offense, but their schedule is good so you may want to acquire some of their players. Top of the list is Cam Newton. His track record is excellent. Top 5 fantasy quarterback every year. Solid passer, and gets you rushing yards and touchdowns. Greg Olsen, good tight end. Kelvin Benjamin, good receiver. Needs to soften up those stone hands, but one of the most NFL ready receivers I've seen. These are the guys I would look to own. Keep an eye on Jason Avant, but he's not currently on my radar. The running back situation in Carolina is currently a quagmire. Jonathan Stewart is the only one healthy. That seems a little ironic, dontcha think? and Tolbert and Newton are goal line touchdown vultures. I wouldn't make a huge effort to roster a Carolina running back. If you have a bench spot available, Stewart or DeAngelo may be worth stashing, but not to drop someone more useful.

The Green Bay Packers make my list next.  High powered offense. Home against Atlanta, at buffalo, at Tampa Bay, and home against the Lions rounds out the season. Aaron Rodgers, if you didn't draft him, you probably aren't getting him. Eddie Lacy, off to a slow start, but due to his high draft position, will probably be expensive. Jordy Nelson went for over 200 yards last week and Randall Cobb had two touchdowns.Prices for these guys are going to be high. It's not a secret that Green Bay has a good offense. The guy to watch is Davante Adams. It is seeming like he has taken over the third wide receiver spot for Green Bay. This offense is definitely good enough to support a third wide receiver and at least three of the playoff matchups feature secondaries that will not be likely to keep up with the Pack's attack. The only tight end to have any fantasy points for Green Bay after their first two games is Andrew Quarless, and its not much. Keep an eye on what develops, but as of now, no tight end with the Packers is worth snagging.

The Washington team is next. I'm on board with not using their name, as many find it offensive, and I am not interested in using an offensive term here. Home against St. Louis, at the Giants, home against Philadelphia, home against Dallas. St. Louis is the outlier here, possessing the best defense of the late season opponents for Washington. Kirk Cousins is the quarterback currently after the injury to Robert Griffin III. He got some starts last year, and had mixed results. the Jay Gruden offense seems like it will be a good fit for him, but time will tell. In relief of RG3 in week two, Cousins did well. It is likely that he is available or would be cheap to acquire, but this one is a gamble for sure. Pierre Garçon is a quality player and will likely be more involved than he was in week two. You could try to use the week two stats where he only had one catch to buy low on him. DeSean Jackson hurt his AC joint in his shoulder. This often can happen when there is a dislocation of the shoulder and makes it hard to reach up. If this heals up well, he should be just fine, but try to use that to drive his cost down. Jackson is a legit deep threat and can hit a home run at any time. In a standard league Alfred Morris is a workhorse back. He piles up yardage, but often in the past has lost goal line work to Roy Helu. I would not own Helu myself. He will have a game or two that are great. If you know when, can you tell me? Niles Paul was great in week two. Not sure what is going to happen when Jordan Reed gets back. The Bengals did use two tight end sets in Gruden's offense in the past, so that isn't out of the question. The lack of defense for Washington will lead to the high possibility that they will be in shootouts or be behind a lot. This is a knock down for Morris, but he will still get his carries. If Griffin comes back, I personally want no part of him, and it knocks all the other players except Morris down a notch for me.

Last but not least for me, the New Orleans Saints. The Saints schedule finishes home against Carolina, at Chicago, home against Atlanta, and at Tampa Bay. Drew Brees is off to a slow start. This may help his price, but since he was likely a top 3 drafted quarterback in your leagues, his price will remain high. Jimmy Graham is an amazing player, and he will also cost you an amazing amount if you even could make a deal for him. Of the wide receivers, the only one I have any real interest in at the moment is Brandin Cooks. In a PPR league, cooks should catch a lot of balls. He is likely to be used on some bubble screens and is a good target down the field as well and is also quite fast and can make big plays at any time. The running back situation in New Orleans is always tricky. To start the season Mark Ingram was doing well. Then he broke his hand. See if you can get him on the cheap from his owner in case he resumes the same role he was playing the first two weeks of the season. Pierre Thomas caught a lot of balls last season, and through the first two weeks of this year is averaging 4.5 catches per game. Khiry Robinson will have an increased presence in the offense with Ingram out, but when he is back, its not certain who will have what roles. I would try to get Thomas on the cheap in a PPR league, and Ingram cheap. Robinson was likely picked up on waivers this week and his team owner will likely not want to give him up before he sees what kind of usage he will be getting.

This brings us to the end of my teams and guys you want to get list. In the coming days I will be posting a list of the guys and teams I think you should avoid. Good Luck this weekend and happy shopping!

The Zero Running Back Strategy And Mid-round Pass Catchers

I personally play in 4 fantasy leagues this season. Three of the four are PPR (point per reception) leagues. I like this format as it is a higher scoring format, and makes some selections during draft time require more finesse and strategy.

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In preparing for my leagues last season I came up with the idea that I wanted to get 2 or 3 high volume wide receivers and forgo running backs in the first few rounds. Three depends on the presence of a flex spot in your leagues. My main goals were: Get Calvin Johnson as often as possible, Get someone like Demarius Thomas, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green. Basically to get two of the most highly ranked receivers that catches a high volume of passes. These guys are usually match up proof and get between 85-100 catches a year. In a PPR format this leads to 85-100 more points, making someone like Calvin Johnson have a similar value to Peyton Manning last year during a record setting season.

Now to your running backs. If you take 2 wide receivers in a row, you will still find some teams starting running backs in round 3. These guys won’t be the bell cow workhorse guys for their team, but a starting running back has value in any fantasy league. The key is the round 4 through 6 picks. This is the area where you need to have an idea about what the people in your draft like to do, as well as the average draft positions of the players you want to take. I don't mind a small reach to get a guy I really want on my team if I am certain he won't come back to me at my next pick. At the same time, if there are a few players you like in this portion of the draft, reaching may not be your best option. This year I did lots of mock drafts, from every possible draft position, to make sure that I had an idea of where the guys I really liked went. Your league, like mine, will be filled with the “average” player. Some better than others, but you can get a general idea about where players are going.

These rounds are where I like to target my pass catching running backs. Players like Danny Woodhead, Darren Sproles, and Joique Bell were going in this range this season. While Woodhead is off to a slow start, I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a surge now that Ryan Matthews is out for a while. And we have all seen what Sproles has done the first few weeks of the season. I have a feeling Joique Bell is about to explode in that Detroit offense. I think he is the best back on that team, and I think they figured that out week 1. If you can land one or two of these guys in a PPR league and they get you 3-5 catches a week and a TD every 2-3 weeks, you will be a happy camper. Back fill with some running back depth, another wide receiver, and a solid late bye defense and kicker, and you have a recipe for success.

TY Hilton Is Not Your Guy

Like many other fantasy football players, I have fallen victim to the hype on TY Hilton. He’s a super athletic player, lots of talent potential. But he has consistently failed to live up to the hype over the years. Hilton has put up some amazing games at times. For a guy who is consistently near the top of the list in targets, he fails at capitalizing on those targets.

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Last season, spending much of it as the number one wide receiver on the Colts after Reggie Wayne tore his ACL, Hilton received 108 targets making 72 catches for a catch rate of 66%. On those 72 catches he gained 689 yards for an average of 9.56 yards per catch. On those 72 catches as the number one guy, he scored a total of three touchdowns. Three. All of them in the first week after Wayne went down.

Now you might say that this is because he was now receiving more attention from the DBs of the other team. While this may or may not be true, his numbers don’t hash out a better performance with Wayne on the field. In the seven weeks with Wayne, Hilton made 27 catches for 412 yards. While his yards per catch were better over this time, 15.26, he only scored 2 touchdowns during this seven game stretch. And in week seven when Wayne went down Hilton got 11 targets and made only 2 catches.

This makes Hilton unownable in my opinion for fantasy purposes. If he is on your roster I would consider trading him for whatever you can get for him. Maybe a decent defense with a late bye so you don’t have to worry about changing for a while. Another option is to try to sell the Andrew Luck owner on him as a way to double dip fantasy points, but don’t quote this article.