My Playbook

Monday, July 13, 2015

Danny Woodhead 2015 Late Round Running Back

Danny Woodhead, RB, San Diego Chargers
is back this season after breaking his leg in September of the 2014 season. Woodhead was a big part of the chargers offense in the 2013 season. A sneaky value play that season, Woodhead is on my list of late round value guys you can look to plug in as a platoon at your running back or flex spots this season.
Image source: nypost.com

Taking a look at the Average Draft Position (ADP) to find value players to take in a PPR league is a good preseason practice. Sure leagues might play out a little differently, but overall I have found that the values are pretty similar. Some of that can be attributed to the rankings on a  league site influencing the players that show available at the nearby picks. So knowing the players and where they tend to go in drafts gives owners a head start over their opponents in draft strategy.
This is where we find Woodhead. With an ADP of 107 according to fantasypros.com PPR rankings, Woodhead is a good addition to a Fantasy team for a multitude of purposes. He can be used as a bye week fill in for the RB2 or flex positions. If  punting on the RB2 spot in favor of either a heavy early wide receiver draft, or take an elite quarterback or tight end in the early rounds, then Woodhead can be immensely valuable.

Taking a look at his 2013 numbers with the Chargers, 
we find that Woodhead was a very productive guy in PPR formats. He had over 1000 yards combined, 429 rushing and 605 receiving. Along with his solid yardage statistics, Woodhead also scored eight total touchdowns during the 2013 season, two rushing and six receiving. He made his hay in long yardage situations and in the red zone. On plays where the Chargers had 10 or more yards to go, Woodhead gained 625 of his yards. In the red zone he had 18 rushes, scoring on two of those. But his big key to the red zone offense for San Diego was his receiving in the red zone. In 2013 he caught 19 passes in the red zone, scoring on five of them. That is excellent efficiency, scoring on about one of every four red zone passes he caught.
The schedule for the Chargers breaks in two completely different directions. The run defenses they will face are by far better than the pass defenses. The average run defense the Chargers will face is 17.68, the ninth easiest schedule in the league. They will only face five Top 10 run defenses. The pass defenses on the slate this season are much harder. The schedule is ranked 27th overall, with an average of 13.75. Eight Top 10 pass defenses from last season await them. Traditionally Woodhead has played well against lower ranked defenses.

The season opens with a tough game at home against Detroit, the top run defense last year, and 13th against the pass, but it gets better from there. After Week 1, the Chargers face bottom half run defenses in five of the next six games. Fantasy playoff time finds the schedule breaking very well for the Chargers running game. In Week 14 the Chiefs stout pass defense and 28th ranked run defense host San Diego. Week 15 finds the Chargers hosting the long traveling, pass defending, and 24th ranked run defending Miami Dolphins. In many leagues championship games, the Chargers travel to Oakland and face their 22nd ranked run defense and 16th ranked pass defense. If the playoffs play to Week 17, a difficult divisional road match up awaits the Chargers in Denver. Denver sported the number two run defense and the number nine pass defense a year ago.

With the fact that Woodhead is returning from an injury
Fantasy players will definitely want to keep an eye on him in training camp and preseason games to make sure that he is healthy and still able to play. The Chargers also drafted Melvin Gordon, a solid pass catching back, who may be able to keep Woodhead at bay if he can pass block well. Branden Oliver showed well as the Chargers running back last year in the absence of Woodhead for a few games, so his usage and position on the depth chart should also be monitored.
A possible boon for Woodhead might be found in the suspension of Antonio Gates. With gates out for the first four games of the season, San Diego will be without one of their red zone targets. This may serve to boost the usage of Woodhead in the red zone, leaving his Fantasy owners to reap the benefits.


If Woodhead can win his spot back as the long yardage, third down, and red zone back for San Diego, he might be a player that can help fantasy owners win a championship in the 2015 season. His late round ADP makes him an easily attainable resource for any team. 

No comments:

Post a Comment